21st century...

2070-2079 timeline contents

2070 - Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C | Fusion power is widespread | Fully automated homes | Expansion of Moon bases | Five-year survival rates for liver cancer are approaching 100%

2072 - Advanced nanotech clothing | Picotechnology is becoming practical

2074 - The Green Wall of China is completed

2075 - The ozone layer has fully recovered | The Thames Barrier is upgraded

2076 - Accurate simulations of viruses | Unmanned probes to Sedna

2079 - Practical flying cars are widespread | Total solar eclipse in New York

2070

Global average temperatures have risen by 4°C*

Vast stores of methane, released from melting permafrost, have triggered an abrupt change in the Earth's climate.* The atmosphere has now shifted to pre-glacial/interglacial conditions which last prevailed over 34m years ago.* CO2 levels have reached almost 700 parts per million: two and a half times pre-industrial levels.** This has resulted in a global average temperature increase of 4°C, with the Arctic seeing rises as high as 15°C.*

In many parts of the world, the limits for human adaptation are being exceeded.* Despite attempts to share food and resources between nations - and to accommodate the surge in refugee numbers - the sheer scale and speed of this disaster is presenting enormous challenges, even with the technological base of the 2070s.

The use of heavily modified GM crops, hydroponics, desalination and other techniques have allowed some regions to maintain a degree of stability. Nanofabricators are also being utilised in the more advanced societies.

For many others, however, it's becoming impossible to sustain any kind of agriculture at all, due to the water loss,* resource depletion and level of environmental destruction now being experienced.** The frequency and intensity of freak weather events has increased exponentially - with hurricanes, severe storms, extreme flooding and droughts becoming widespread. A number of countries near the equator have been simply abandoned, their people scattered. City-scale flooding disasters are now commonplace* as sea levels have risen a full metre,* sweeping away trillions of dollars' worth of real estate.

The number of displaced persons is overwhelming the ability of international organisations and governments to cope. Although many refugees are surviving and resettling in higher or lower latitudes, even greater numbers are unable to complete the journey, or are denied border entry. An alarming drop in the global population is being witnessed as millions perish due to hunger, conflict and adverse environmental conditions. Traditional free market capitalism is facing collapse, as civilisation struggles to adapt to this new and rapidly changing world. Resource-based economies are evolving to take its place.**

For too long, humans exploited their environment with little appreciation for the long-term consequences. Nature is finally beginning to redress the balance.

Fusion power is widespread

Most leading countries now have at least one fusion plant either operational, or in the process of construction.* These reactors offer a clean, safe and abundant supply of energy. Alas, they have come too late to prevent runaway global warming.

Fully automated homes

Buildings in developed nations are becoming highly automated and self-sufficient. In addition to robots, a typical new build home now includes the following:

A localised power supply. Energy can be generated by the building itself, via a combination of photovoltaics and piezoelectric materials. Walls, roofs and windows can absorb almost all wavelengths of light from the Sun with organic solar technology, turning it into heat and electricity. Friction generated by the occupant's footsteps - and various other kinetic processes - can also produce energy. This is converted and stored in any number of ways, from hydrogen to batteries. In countries where sunlight is less frequent, microturbines may be used in place of solar.

On-site water production and waste management. Rain is captured by external guttering, then stored and converted into drinking water using nanofiltration systems. This is especially useful in regions prone to drought (which includes a substantial portion of the world by this time). If local water is in short supply, houses can serve as miniature reservoirs and filtration systems. Meanwhile, plastics and other kitchen waste can be placed in recycling machines, ground into extremely fine powder, then later re-used in nanofabricators.

A multi-layered building envelope which provides a variety of dynamic effects. Windows can self-adjust their size and position - as well as their opacity - to optimise the level of natural light. In some of the more upmarket properties, the entire façade can morph its texture and appearance through the use of claytronics. Depending on the tastes of the occupant, this could transform into an art deco style, a classic Victorian building, or something entirely different. This form of "programmable matter" can even be designed by the occupant themselves and changed on demand.

Air purification systems. Air within the home is kept fresh, purified and completely free of dust and microbes.

Interactive surfaces. Holographic generators cover the whole interior of the property – including walls, doors, worktop surfaces, mirrors and shower cubicles. These intelligent surfaces can track the position of the occupant and display information whenever and wherever necessary. A person can read emails, see news reports and access the online world using virtually any surface in the house as a touch screen or mind control interface.* Detailed, real-time information on their health, personal lifestyle and daily schedules can also be displayed. This system has a variety of other functions, e.g. it can be used to locate personal items which may have been misplaced.

Intelligent/self-maintaining appliances. Appliances that don't repair or maintain themselves in some way have become largely obsolete by now. It is very rare for a human engineer to be called to the house.

A modest size. The world is becoming an ever more crowded place, with available land continuing to shrink due to overpopulation and environmental decline. In city centres, apartments tend to be highly minimalist and compact, with small footprints utilising every inch of space. Full immersion virtual reality is one method of adapting to this. Another is flexible room layouts that reconfigure themselves on demand. In earlier decades, this was achieved in some homes by using a sliding wall system.* Today, it can be done with morphable claytronics.

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Expansion of Moon bases

Building on the success of the Helium-3 extraction programmes, additional new bases are appearing on the Moon. Other resources are now being mined including precious metals and minerals which are increasingly rare on Earth. Perhaps more importantly, this is being combined with on-site processing and production, to build new structures and facilities around the original bases. Solar panels, tools and other equipment, for example, can be manufactured without needing to be delivered from Earth, whilst entire new buildings can be created with the help of robots. Paths can be carved out from the lunar regolith, with solar roadways built on them using materials extracted locally. Small hydroponic farms are providing a continuous supply of food and water to the astronauts. All of this is producing the critical mass needed for a thriving, self-sustaining presence on the Moon.

Five-year survival rates for liver cancer are approaching 100%

In the early 21st century, liver cancer was the third most common cancer death in the world. Nearly 700,000 people died from the disease in 2008, accounting for 9% of all cancer deaths. Major risk factors included chronic infection with hepatitis B and C (accounting for 54% and 31% of cases, respectively), consumption of foods contaminated with aflatoxin, and heavy alcohol consumption. It was nearly three times more common in men than in women.

In 2009, Japanese researchers began efforts to map the complete genome of liver cancer.* This paved the way for blood tests to spot tumours earlier, whilst also yielding new drug targets. The increasing use of nanoparticle carriers – and eventually nanobots giving precise control and delivery of drugs – also greatly improved survival rates.

Despite the global chaos unfolding at this point in history, scientific knowledge continues to advance incrementally. By 2070, five-year survival rates for liver cancer are reaching 100% in many countries.**

2072

Advanced nanotech clothing

Fifty years have passed since the mainstream appearance of nanotech clothing. During that time it has made extraordinary improvements in utility, power and sophistication. Modern fabrics have built upon the abilities of previous generations, perfecting many of the technologies involved. Today, a complex blend of nanotechnology, biotechnology, claytronics, metamaterials and other components has yielded a type of clothing previously confined to the realm of science fiction. Though mostly restricted to specialised personnel, government forces and the elite, a number of these suits are finding their way into the mainstream.

Construction via self-assembling nanotechnology has been around for a number of decades. Until now, the process was only practical using bulky and/or conspicuous machinery, nanofabricators, or objects suspended in tanks of catalytic fluids.* However, recent advances in nanorobotics have allowed for more subtle and rapid construction of macro-scale objects in a more compact form-factor and with less impact on Earth's natural resources. As happened with early nanotech adoption in the 2020s, one of the easiest and most common applications has been in fabrics. Today, a high-end home "closet" may consist of simply a thin surface or pad built into the wall or floor, concealing a mass of nanobots and molecular building materials. A user can stand on or touch this surface and issue instructions to the machine (through voice command or virtual telepathy) for what to create. Each nanobot is then programmed with the final clothing design and set into motion.

The process begins with each nanobot organising and categorising each building molecule, based on the aggregate material needed and where each piece will be located in the finished product. The nanobots – also called "foglets" – then begin interlocking with themselves, forming a basic "skeleton" on which building molecules can be attached.*

As more and more nanobots and molecules are added on, thousands of individual fibres begin to form out of the machine's surface. These grow up and around the person's body, crossing each other to create a weave pattern, before finally taking the shape of traditional clothing. The result is a basic structure around which nanobots then construct the more advanced and customised features. Depending on the outfit's function, the original fibres can be interlaced with photovoltaics, piezoelectric nanowire, carbon nanotubes, metamaterials, claytronics or any number of other useful materials. Tiny electronic devices can be added for communication or medical purposes. This whole process is completed in a matter of seconds.

With such detail and control, fabric of this nature confers the wearer an array of conveniences. In earlier decades, this technology was limited to relatively simple functions, like colour and texture modifications.* Today, it is almost indistinguishable from magic. Complete wardrobes are no longer necessary, since one garment performs the function of many, transforming into an endless variety of styles and shapes. Most outfits are self-cleaning, self-fragrancing and rarely if ever need to be washed.** They can instantly adjust themselves in emergencies – becoming harder than steel to stop a knife or bullet; cushion-like in the event of accidents or falls. If a person is injured, the fabric can administer life-saving drugs and medical nanobots, or contract to seal a wound.* A drowning person can be made safe. Fire-fighters and other rescue workers are completely protected from hazards such as fire or radiation. This is also useful in space, protecting people from sudden changes in air pressure, micrometeorites, cosmic rays and other hazards. Medical devices included in these outfits monitor for disease at all times, catching the earliest signs of cancer or infection and alerting the wearer before any damage is done.* Whatever power is needed for the various functions is supplied by a combination of piezoelectric and photovoltaic components embedded throughout the clothing material.

Some of these aforementioned comforts had already been available in earlier decades, but were simpler and fewer – usually limited to just one, or a small number within each item of clothing. Today, however, all of them can be fully integrated and combined together into a single suit, created and maintained via swarms of intelligent foglets. As this technology evolves further, it becomes a permanent part of some peoples' physiology, almost like a second skin.*

Picotechnology is becoming practical

Technology on the scale of trillionths of a metre (10^-12) is becoming practical now.* This is orders of magnitude smaller than the nanotech of earlier decades.* The structure and properties of individual atoms can be altered via the manipulation of energy states within electrons, to produce metastable states with highly unusual properties, creating new and exotic forms of atoms.

2074

The Green Wall of China is completed

A 73-year environmental project to halt the advancing sands of the Gobi Desert is finally completed this year.* Beijing and other cities along China's northeastern border are now protected from desertification by a 4,500 km (2,800 mi) barrier of newly planted trees.*

To build it, the government established a plan involving three approaches. Firstly, aerial seeding over vast swathes of land where the soil was less arid. Secondly, the paying of farmers to plant trees and shrubs in areas requiring greater attention. Thirdly, the construction of a huge fence along the perimeter.

Inside this gigantic new forest, sand-tolerant vegetation was arranged in optimised checkerboard patterns to create an artificial ecosystem that stabilised the dunes. A gravel platform held sand down and encouraged the formation of a soil crust. The government also funded research into genetically engineered plants, chemical dune stabilisation, grass strains bred in space, and even farming techniques that allowed rice to grow in sandy soil. Prior to the erection of this barrier, the Gobi had been advancing south at 3 km (1.9 mi) per year.

2075

The ozone layer has fully recovered

Chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) were invented in the 1920s. They were used in air conditioning/cooling units, as aerosol spray propellants prior to the 1980s, and in the cleaning processes of electronic equipment. They also occured as by-products of some chemical processes.

No significant natural sources were ever identified for these compounds - their presence in the atmosphere was found to be almost entirely due to human activity. When such ozone-depleting chemicals reached the stratosphere, they dissociated by ultraviolet light to release chlorine atoms. The chlorine atoms acted as a catalyst, each one breaking down tens of thousands of ozone molecules before being removed from the stratosphere.

The ozone layer prevents most UV wavelengths of sunlight from passing through the Earth's atmosphere. In the late 20th century, huge decreases in ozone generated worldwide concern. It was suspected that a variety of biological consequences - such as increases in skin cancer, cataracts, damage to plants, and reduced plankton populations - resulted from the higher levels of UV exposure due to ozone depletion.

This led to the adoption of the Montreal Protocol - one of the single most successful international agreements of all time, which banned the production of CFCs, halons and related ozone-depleting chemicals. Although this ban came into force in 1989, the molecules had a longevity of several decades. In 2006, the ozone hole was the largest ever recorded, at 10.6 million square miles (pictured below). It was not until 2075 that it fully recovered.*

The Thames Barrier is upgraded

London is just the latest of many cities to radically upgrade its flood defences in the wake of devastating floods and sea level rises.* The original barrier was raised a total of 62 times between 1983 and 2001. It was raised with increasing frequency as the decades went by. Towards the end of this century, its successor needs to be raised over 200 times every year to cope with the combined impact of stronger storms and sea level rise.*

2076

Accurate simulations of viruses

Thanks to advances in lattice quantum chromodynamics, the vast majority of viruses have now been accurately modelled and simulated down to the quantum level.* This provides what is essentially a complete picture of these tiny organisms, which average 20-300 nanometres in size, with millions of different types. As this area of science continues to advance, ever larger and more detailed simulations become possible,* providing new insights into the nature of matter.

Unmanned probes to Sedna

Sedna is a trans-Neptunian "dwarf planet", similar in size and composition to Pluto.* Discovered in 2003, it became the most distant object yet observed in the Solar System, and the largest solar body to be found in over 70 years. Its orbit is highly elliptical, going from 76 AU to about 975 AU over the course of 12,000 years. In 2076, it reaches perihelion (its closest point to the Sun) and a number of unmanned probes are sent to explore it.

Credit: NASA

2079

Practical flying cars are widespread

Anti-gravity propulsion has been under development for almost a century now.* Initially seen in military applications, it eventually found its way to the consumer market. Advances in AI, room temperature superconducters, microjets and collision avoidance systems have led to the dawn of a new era in personal transportation. By the end of this decade, it is not uncommon to see "flying cars" moving through cities.

In fact, these are light-duty vehicles based on earlier military VTOL (Vertical Take-Off and Landing) craft, but with slimmed down functionality and costs. They come in a variety of models and sizes, but are typically around 4 metres wide, and limited to a maximum of one or two passengers. By the end of this decade, they are becoming cheap, safe and numerous enough to be regarded as a mainstream form of transport.

The craft have a number of advantages over established forms of mobility. Since they float above the ground, they can access terrain and environments that would easily defeat traditional automobiles. This makes them popular with adventurers and explorers. They are also substantially faster than normal cars, able to reach several hundred kilometres per hour if necessary. They are more versatile and manoeuvrable than aeroplanes and can utilise a much greater volume of airspace. Since the traffic they generate is decentralised and there is so much available airspace, this makes them safer than both cars and aeroplanes, too. Collisions are almost unheard of, in any case, due to the onboard software and AI.

In addition, they use considerably less fuel than earlier forms of transport and require less maintenance.

Some of the more expensive models are capable of reaching low Earth orbit for short periods. Others feature striking designs, often personalised by their owner - such as holographic decals and other accessories. These craft are being used by many businesses too (especially for rapid delivery of goods), as well as police and ambulance crews.

Further developments in anti-gravity will lead to bigger, more sophisticated versions - including recreational vehicles serving as truly mobile homes. Many previously inaccessible parts of Earth will become inhabited thanks to this, such as mountains and remote islands.

Total solar eclipse in New York

A rare total eclipse takes place in New York this year.*

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References

1 See Global temperature.

2 Science stunner: Vast East Siberian Arctic Shelf methane stores destabilizing and venting, Climate Progress:
http://climateprogress.org/2010/03/04/science-nsf-tundra-permafrost-methane-east-siberian-arctic-shelf-venting/
Accessed 20th March 2011.

3 U.S. media largely ignores latest warning from climate scientists: “Recent observations confirm … the worst-case IPCC scenario trajectories (or even worse) are being realised” — 1000 ppm, Climate Progress:
http://climateprogress.org/2009/03/17/media-copenhagen-global-warming-impacts-worst-case-ipcc/
Accessed 20th March 2011.

4 Past and future CO2 concentrations, United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP):
http://maps.grida.no/go/graphic/past_and_future_co2_concentrations
Accessed 20th March 2011.

5 M.I.T. doubles its 2095 warming projection to 10°F — with 866 ppm and Arctic warming of 20°F, Climate Progress:
http://climateprogress.org/2009/05/20/mit-doubles-global-warming-projections-2/
Accessed 20th March 2011.

6 No rainforest, no monsoon: get ready for a warmer world, New Scientist:
http://www.newscientist.com/article/dn17864-no-rainforest-no-monsoon-get-ready-for-a-warmer-world.html
Accessed 20th March 2011.

7 Four degrees and beyond: the potential for a global temperature increase of four degrees and its implications, The Royal Society:
http://rsta.royalsocietypublishing.org/content/369/1934.toc
Accessed 20th March 2011.

8 Mapping Future Water Stress, BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/7821082.stm
Accessed 20th March 2011.

9 Half of world’s population could face climate-driven food crisis in second half of the century, Climate Progress:
http://climateprogress.org/2011/02/24/half-of-world%E2%80%99s-population-could-face-climate-driven-food-crisis-in-second-half-of-the-century/
Accessed 20th March 2011.

10 The Meaning of the 21st Century, James Martin:
http://www.amazon.com/Meaning-21st-Century-James-Martin/dp/1573223239
Accessed 20th March 2011.

11 City-scale flooding disasters predicted by 2070, The Telegraph:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/earth/earthnews/3317033/City-scale-flooding-disasters-predicted-by-2070.html
Accessed 20th March 2011.

12 Predicting future sea level rise, Skeptical Science:
http://www.skepticalscience.com/Predicting-future-sea-level-rise.html
Accessed 20th March 2011.

13 Zeitgeist: Moving Forward:
http://www.zeitgeistmovingforward.com/
Accessed 20th March 2011.

14 The Meaning of the 21st Century, James Martin:
http://www.amazon.com/Meaning-21st-Century-James-Martin/dp/1573223239
Accessed 20th March 2011.

15 U. S. FUSION ENERGY FUTURE, Princeton Plasma Physics Laboratory:
http://www.agci.org/dB/PDFs/03S2_MMauel_USFutures.pdf
Accessed 9th October 2012.

16 Inside the house of the future, BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/7348940.stm
Accessed 20th May 2010.

17 24 Room Apartment Crammed Into A 344 Sq. Foot Space (video), Gadget Review:
http://www.gadgetreview.com/2010/04/24-room-apartment-crammed-into-a-344-sq-foot-space-video.html
Accessed 20th May 2010.

18 Scientists crack 'entire genetic code' of cancer, BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/health/8414124.stm
Accessed 9th October 2012.

19 Browse the SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2009 (Vintage 2009 Populations), National Cancer Institute:
http://seer.cancer.gov/csr/1975_2009_pops09/browse_csr.php
Accessed 9th October 2012.

20 Liver cancer survival statistics, Cancer Research UK:
http://www.cancerresearchuk.org/cancer-info/cancerstats/types/liver/survival/
Accessed 9th October 2012.

21 Engines of Creation: The Coming Era of Nanotechnology, by Eric Drexler:
http://www.amazon.com/Engines-Creation-Coming-Era-Nanotechnology/dp/0385199732/
Accessed 1st December 2012.

22 Manufacturing Complex 3-D Metallic Structures at Nanoscale Made Possible, Science Daily:
http://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2012/10/121018103020.htm
Accessed 1st December 2012.

23 See 2039.

24 Self-cleaning clothes, Future Timeline Blog:
http://futuretimeline.net/blog/2011/12/20.htm
Accessed 1st December 2012.

25 Light-triggered fragrance, Henkel:
http://www.henkel.com/press/press-releases-2011-20110607-light-triggered-fragrance-32662.htm
Accessed 1st December 2012.

26 Military Uses of Nanotechnology: Perspectives and Concerns, Jürgen Altmann:
http://www.uk.sagepub.com/chaston/Chaston%20Web%20readings%20chapters%201-12/Chapter%2012
Accessed 1st December 2012.

27 Wearable Breast Cancer Test Detects Tumors Before Doctors, Singularity Hub:
http://singularityhub.com/2012/11/05/wearable-breast-cancer-test-detects-tumors-before-doctors/
Accessed 1st December 2012.

28 See 2080.

29 The Age of Spiritual Machines, by Ray Kurzweil (1999)
Accessed 20th June 2009.

30 To get an idea of the scale we are talking about here, see: http://learn.genetics.utah.edu/content/begin/cells/scale/
Picotechnology would involve the use of components smaller than a carbon atom (drag the slider from left to right to zoom in).

31 China's Great Green Wall, BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/monitoring/media_reports/1199218.stm
Accessed 6th January 2010.

32 Green Wall of China, Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Green_Wall_of_China
Accessed 6th January 2010.

33 Ozone hole smaller in 2009 than 2008, Physorg.com:
http://www.physorg.com/news172311361.html
Accessed 14th April 2010.

34 Thames Barrier to hold until 2070, BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/england/london/7973623.stm
Accessed 29th November 2009.

35 Six Degrees, by Mark Lynas. Amazon.co.uk:
http://www.amazon.co.uk/Six-Degrees-Future-Hotter-Planet/dp/0007209053/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1221170576&sr=1-1.
Accessed 11th Sept 2008.

36 Constraints on the Universe as a Numerical Simulation, Silias R. Beane. et al., University of Washington:
http://arxiv.org/pdf/1210.1847v2.pdf
Accessed 15th January 2013.

37 See 2140.

38 90377 Sedna, Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/90377_Sedna
Accessed 24th November 2009.

39 There are numerous developments already underway. See for example:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5QhqEoRvpEA
Accessed 15th July 2009.

40 Total Solar Eclipse of 2079 May 01, NASA:
http://eclipse.gsfc.nasa.gov/SEgoogle/SEgoogle2051/SE2079May01Tgoogle.html
Accessed 28th February 2010.

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