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2032

Britain's ash trees have been wiped out by a fungal disease

Ash dieback, caused by the fungus Chalara fraxinea,* killed huge numbers of trees from the mid-1990s onwards, particularly in eastern and northern Europe. Up to 90% of ash trees were affected in Denmark. The fungus was first scientifically described in 2006.

It was discovered in the UK during 2012, initially only on imported nursery stock, but in October of that year it was found on trees at two sites of established woodland in the East Anglia region. This occurred despite clear warnings from ecologists and foresters that imports of seedlings from the continent should be banned in case of infection.*

Despite efforts to contain the disease, it was impossible to stop.* Within a few weeks, Chalara fraxinea was confirmed in dozens of other locations. Over the next two decades, it spread throughout the country, wiping out most of the 90 million ash trees in Britain.*

Many plant species, birds and other animals dependent upon the trees for survival were also lost,* at a time when their numbers were already in sharp decline.** With ash trees forming a significant proportion of the UK's woodland, an eerie silence is descending on many areas of countryside, with birdsongs and other wildlife becoming ever rarer.

 

ash tree dieback 2030 2032 2030s

 

 

Leatherback sea turtles are on the verge of extinction

Growing up to seven feet (two metres) long and exceeding 2,000 pounds (900 kilograms), leatherbacks are the largest turtles on Earth. They can dive to depths of nearly 4,000 feet and make trans-Pacific migrations from Indonesia to the U.S. Pacific coast and back again. These ancient reptiles are the only remaining members of a family of turtles with evolutionary roots going back 100 million years.

After mating at sea, females come ashore during the breeding season to nest. At night, they excavate a hole in the sand, depositing around 80 eggs. This is filled with sand, making detection by predators difficult, before the mother turtle returns to the sea.

 

leatherback sea turtle population graph 2012 2013 2014 2015 future

 

Once common throughout the world, their population declined rapidly during the 20th century and into the 21st. At the Jamursba Medi Beach in Papua Barat, Indonesia – accounting for 75 percent of total sightings in the western Pacific – nest numbers plummeted from a peak of 14,455 in 1984 to a low of 1,532 in 2011.

Several major problems faced leatherback turtles: nesting beach predators, such as pigs and dogs that were introduced to the islands, eating the turtle eggs; rising sand temperatures that killed the eggs or prevented the production of male hatchlings; the danger of being caught by fisheries during migrations; and harvesting of adults and eggs for food by islanders.* Plastic debris, mistaken for their favourite food (jellyfish) was another problem. Some individuals were found to have ingested almost 11 pounds (5 kilograms) of plastic into their stomachs.

 

leatherback sea turtle population graph 2012 2013 2014 2015 future

 

 

China's space station is deorbited

China's first space station has reached the end of its 10-year lifespan.* After a decade of onboard research, it is abandoned and sent into a decaying orbit. A new, larger and more advanced space station is now in the process of being constructed.

 

china space station deorbited 2030 2032

 

 

4th generation nuclear power

By this date, 4th generation nuclear power plants are commercially available.* They utilise a system of small balls, rather than large fuel rods. They are a major improvement over previous generations, for the following reasons:

  • It is physically impossible for them to have a runaway chain reaction, as happened with Chernobyl. No error, human or otherwise, will ever produce a meltdown.
  • The uranium fuel is only 9% enriched. This makes it impossible to be used in terrorist nuclear weapons.
  • The nuclear waste is much easier to dispose of.
  • They are highly economical. Electricity can be generated more cheaply than oil or gas power, even when the decommissioning costs of the stations are taken into account.

For these reasons, nuclear power becomes a lucrative industry from the 2030s onwards. China and India, in particular, take advantage of this enhanced power source.

Solar and wind power has greater long term potential, however, due to the finite supply of uranium.


4th generation nuclear power 2020 2030 2030s future

 

 

One-third of Saudi Arabia's electricity comes from solar

In 2012, the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia had only 0.003 gigawatts of installed solar energy capacity. More than half of its electricity was produced from burning oil. By 2032, it has 41 gigawatts of installed solar energy, accounting for a third of the nation's 121 gigawatts total energy demand.* Around 25 gigawatts is produced by solar thermal plants, which use mirrors to focus energy from the sun on heating fluids which in turn run turbines. The other 16 gigawatts is provided by massive photovoltaic farms. This has been a result of considerable foreign investment as well as the wealth produced by fossil fuels, totalling just over $100 billion. Though several other countries have more extensive solar infrastructure, this has easily been one of the most ambitious projects, especially considering Saudi Arabia's old position as the world's largest exporter of crude oil.

The enormous expanses of desert, as well as measurably more intense sunlight in the equatorial regions, gives the country a huge amount of room to expand further. Even larger projects are now planned. Construction is also underway on high voltage cables connecting Saudi Arabia to neighbouring countries and some in Southern Europe. Eventually, this will be expanded to include all of Europe and Northern Africa.* Alongside solar, another 21 gigawatts is generated by a combination of nuclear, wind, and geothermal power.* Through nuclear cooperation agreements with China, France, South Korea and Argentina, Saudi Arabia has now constructed 16 new nuclear reactors.* Longer term, the country has further ambitions to be powered entirely by renewables. Much of the oil industry in Saudi Arabia is now transitioning away from energy production to the manufacture of plastics and polymers.*

These developments, coupled with the fact that it remains one of the wealthiest countries in the region, are helping Saudi Arabia transition to a more sustainable long-term future. However, the reality of the situation has forced the government to drastically cut back oil exports.* The Middle East, as a whole, has descended further towards chaos in recent years, as both demand and supply diminish for its key export.* A strong military, ties to the West, and extensive desalination infrastructure have allowed Saudi Arabia to remain relatively stable for the time being.

 

saudi arabia 2030 2032 solar map
SolarGIS © 2012 GeoModel Solar s.r.o.

 

 

Terabit internet speeds are commonplace

In addition to the benefits resulting from Web 4.0 (described earlier), connection speeds have also vastly improved. Bandwidth has been growing by roughly 50% each year. Many homes and offices in the developed world now have a terabit connection.* Many of these connections are now appearing on people themselves, in the form of wearable or implantable devices.

 

future internet speeds trends gigabit terabit web 4.0 singularity

 

 

 
   
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References

1 Ash dieback disease – symptoms guide, The Forestry Commission:
http://www.forestry.gov.uk/pdf/Symptoms_guide_Chalara_dieback_of_ash_2012.pdf
Accessed 20th November 2012.

2 Let's rename the ash dieback 'Cameron's contagion', The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/georgemonbiot/2012/oct/25/ash-dieback-cameron
Accessed 20th November 2012.

3 Ash dieback 'beyond containment', BBC:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/today/hi/today/newsid_9767000/9767452.stm
Accessed 20th November 2012.

4 "Stephen Woodward says the ash tree will be virtually eliminated within 20 years."
S
ee The ash is history — oak could be next, The Sunday Times:
http://www.thesundaytimes.co.uk/sto/news/uk_news/Environment/article1159039.ece
Accessed 20th November 2012.

5 Ash dieback: Spotter's guide and maps, BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/science-environment-20171524
Accessed 20th November 2012.

6 Shocking decline in UK birdlife, Future Timeline Blog:
http://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/2012/11/19-2.htm
Accessed 20th November 2012.

7 See 2025-2030.

8 UAB research says 2,000 pound turtle could be extinct within 20 years, University of Alabama at Birmingham:
http://www.uab.edu/news/latest/item/3216-uab-research-says-2000-pound-turtle-could-be-extinct-within-20-years
Accessed 6th March 2013.

9 See 2022.

10 Generation IV reactor, Wikipedia:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Generation_IV_reactor.
Accessed 9th Sept 2008.

11 Saudi Arabia targets 41 GW of solar by 2032, PV Magazine:
http://www.pv-magazine.com/news/details/beitrag/saudi-arabia-targets-41-gw-of-solar-by-2032_100006719/#axzz1uSl2b03a
Accessed 20th November 2012.

12 See 2050.

13 Saudi Arabia Plans $109 Billion Boost for Solar Power, Business Week:
http://www.businessweek.com/news/2012-05-10/saudi-arabia-plans-109-billion-boost-for-solar-power
Accessed 20th November 2012.

14 Saudi plans 16 reactors by 2030, World Nuclear News:
http://www.world-nuclear-news.org/IT-Saudi_plans_16_reactors_by_2030-0206115.html
Accessed 20th November 2012.

15 Saudi Arabia reveals plans to be powered entirely by renewable energy, The Guardian:
http://www.guardian.co.uk/environment/2012/oct/19/saudi-arabia-renewable-energy-oil?intcmp=122
Accessed 20th November 2012.

16 Saudis may not have oil to export by 2030, Aljazeera:
http://blogs.aljazeera.com/blog/middle-east/saudis-may-not-have-oil-export-2030
Accessed 20th November 2012.

17 See 2035.

18 Nielsen's Law of Internet Bandwidth, Useit.com:
http://www.useit.com/alertbox/980405.html
Accessed 21st June 2010.

 

 
     
 
 
 
 

 


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