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2029

Human-like AI is becoming a reality

A major milestone is reached in the field of artificial intelligence this year, as a computer passes the Turing Test for the first time.** This test is conducted by a human judge who is made to engage in a natural language conversation with one human and one machine, each of which tries to appear human. The participants are placed in isolated locations.

Information technology has seen exponential growth for decades. This has led to vast improvements in memory, processing power, software algorithms, voice recognition and overall machine intelligence. It has now reached the stage where an independent judge is literally unable to tell which is the real human and which is not.* Answers to certain "obscure" questions posed by the judge may appear childlike from the AI – but they are humanlike nonetheless.*

 

artificial intelligence 2020 2025 2029 kurzweil future 2030
© Rolffimages | Dreamstime.com

 

 

Heavy automation of supermarkets and retail environments

In developed nations, the majority of retail environments are now cashless. Automated systems have made it possible for customers to shop with little or no physical interaction with a checkout.

Items are simply "scanned" as they pass out of the door. The customer is identified by a chip in their card, or with a prepayment transponder obtained from a vending machine outside the store. Transactions are then generated over the Internet. This system greatly saves time, improves security and reduces costs for the retailer by eliminating the need for checkout staff.

Customers can also utilise Augmented Reality, to quickly locate shop items. A list on their mobile phone can direct them to the appropriate aisle and shelf. Users can also make use of glasses with displays built into the lenses.

 

 

 

Intelligent advertising is widespread

Personalised adverts – similar in style to those seen in the film Minority Report – are becoming widespread by the end of this decade.** Microsensors embedded in posters and other outdoor media can identify people by the chips in their mobile phone, credit card and other personal effects. These adverts are then customised depending on the interests and lifestyle of the person in question.

Pairs of ultrasonic beams – targeted to intersect at specific points – deliver a localised sound message that only a single person can hear. This means that even in crowded situations, the adverts can be made personal and unique.

Civil liberties campaigners decry the use of such technology, given the anxiety and paranoia resulting from such marketing tactics; but the demands of business win through.

 

 

 

Global reserves of silver are running out

Silver is a precious metal which has been used by humans for thousands of years in currency, jewelry and sculpture. In modern times it has a range of applications including dental fillings, mirrors, nuclear reactors, photographic film, solar reflectors and solder, along with alloys to make silverware, ornaments and the like. Due to its high conductivity (the highest of any metal) silver is useful in electronic devices such as radios, antennas, computer keyboards and audio equipment, as well as wires and cables. As most silver ions are toxic to microbes, silver is also used in bandages and medical coatings.

Silver has long been a high value commodity, often used for investment and even as the base for entire economies. Mines were once found throughout the world, though the bulk was extracted in China and Poland. Between 1900 and the early 2000s, silver ores as a percentage of geologic formations declined by over 80%. New mine deposit discoveries peaked in the mid-1980s, with average annual discoveries declining over 60% between then and 2011.* By the late 2020s, reserves have reached critically low levels,** causing a high degree of economic disruption and loss of investment. Prices have skyrocketed, driving demand for alternative materials.

In some applications, silver is able to be replaced by aluminum, copper and rhodium, but the lower conductivity necessitates new refinement techniques. Thankfully, recycling is proving effective enough to keep the supply somewhat stable for a few more decades,* though demand continues to outpace availability.

 

silver future predictions 2020 2025 2029 2030

 

 

Lake Chad disappears from the map

In the 19th century, Lake Chad was among the largest lakes in the world. It supported a vast ecosystem of fish, waterfowl, crocodiles, shore birds and other animals. Due to a combination of drought, irrigation and human activity, it has disappeared entirely by now.* This is having a devastating impact on Niger, Nigeria, Chad and Cameroon – with 30 million people depending on the lake for agriculture, drinking water, livestock, fishing and other purposes. Famine and civil war have erupted as huge numbers of refugees attempt to flee the region.

 

 

 

Madagascar's radiated tortoise is extinct in the wild

Years of unmitigated hunting and loss of habitat, as well as capture for the illegal exotic pet trade, have caused the wild population of the radiated tortoise to dwindle to almost nothing.* Like over 80% of the island's flora and fauna, the radiated tortoise can be found nowhere else on Earth naturally.

The government of Madagascar attempted to halt the decline by introducing a series of protection laws. Unfortunately, the size of the island's wildlife areas and poor economic conditions meant these restrictions were all but ignored. Even protected areas were invaded by poachers. Surveys in the 2010s revealed a shocking decline in the number of tortoises. The breeding population quickly shrunk throughout the 2020s.

Though there is hope of future repopulation using those bred in captivity, the shrinking habitats they once occupied make this prospect unlikely. In another 15 years or so, almost all of Madagascar's forests will be gone.*

 

madagascar radiated tortoise extinct 2030

 

 

Jupiter's Great Red Spot is disappearing

The first sightings of a Great Red Spot on Jupiter were made in the 1660s by Robert Hooke and Giovanni Cassini. This feature – a monstrous, anticyclonic storm – was not studied in detail until the late 19th century. At that time, its diameter was found to be around 25,500 miles (41,000 km), large enough to swallow three entire planet Earths.

On 25th February 1979, NASA's Voyager 1 spacecraft returned close-range photos of the planet. These revealed that its Great Red Spot had shrunk to 14,500 miles (23,335 km). Later studies by the Hubble Space Telescope, from the 1990s onwards, revealed that it was continuing to get smaller in size. By 2012, the rate of shrinkage was nearly 1000 kilometres per year and increasing. It was theorised that small eddies, observed feeding into the storm, were accelerating this change by altering the internal dynamics. The raging winds in this turbulent region were measured to be 384 mph (618 km/h), greatly surpassing even the strongest hurricanes on Earth.

Another space probeJunoorbited the gas giant in 2016. This provided a greater understanding of the atmospheric composition, cloud motions, temperature, magnetosphere, gravity and other properties affecting the overall dynamics of Jupiter. Once again, the Great Red Spot was seen shrinking and losing momentum. This process would continue into the following decade. By the end of the 2020s, it has vanished entirely.** Yet another probe, Jupiter Icy Moon Explorer (JUICE), arrives in 2030, just after its disappearance.

 

 
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The wreck of the Titanic has decomposed

By the late 2020s, the famous wreck of the Titanic has been reduced to a mere rust patch. Metal-eating bacteria have dissolved what remains of the once mighty structure. Though some artifacts were salvageable, any hope of recovering the ship itself is now gone.*

 

titanic decomposition future 2029 2020

 

 

 
   
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References

1 "I make the case in The Singularity Is Near that we'll have both the hardware and the software to create human-like intelligence by 2029. I've been consistent on that date."
See An Interview With Ray Kurzweil, Techland:
http://techland.com/2010/04/02/an-interview-with-ray-kurzweil/
Accessed 23rd May 2010.

2 The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil (2005)
http://www.amazon.com/Singularity-Near-Humans-Transcend-Biology/dp/0143037889/ref=sr_1_1?ie=UTF8&s=books&qid=1254172463&sr=1-1
Accessed 23rd May 2010.

3 "... We will have entities by 2030 that seem to be conscious, and that will claim to have feelings. We have entities today, like characters in your kids' video games, that can make that claim, but they are not very convincing. If you run into a character in a video game and it talks about its feelings, you know it's just a machine simulation; you're not convinced that it's a real person there. This is because that entity, which is a software entity, is still a million times simpler than the human brain.

In 2030, that won't be the case. Say you encounter another person in virtual reality that looks just like a human but there's actually no biological human behind it – it's completely an AI projecting a human-like figure in virtual reality, or even a human-like image in real reality using an android robotic technology. These entities will seem human. They won't be a million times simpler than humans. They'll be as complex as humans. They'll have all the subtle cues of being humans. They'll be able to sit here and be interviewed and be just as convincing as a human, just as complex, just as interesting. And when they claim to have been angry or happy it'll be just as convincing as when another human makes those claims.

At this point, it becomes a really deeply philosophical issue. Is that just a very clever simulation that's good enough to trick you, or is it really conscious in the way that we assume other people are?"

See After the Singularity: A Talk with Ray Kurzweil , KurzweilAI.net:
http://www.kurzweilai.net/articles/art0451.html?printable=1
Accessed 23rd May 2010.

4 Kurzweil's prediction is controversial, with many believing it to be rather optimistic. However, he has an impressive track record of predictions – correctly forecasting the collapse of the Soviet Union, the rise of the Internet, the completion of the Human Genome Project, and the date when a computer would beat a human chess player.

5 Wired (UK launch issue – May 2009):
http://www.wired.co.uk
Accessed 18th April 2009.

6 CNN – Ads that watch you in Japan – Minority Report reality, YouTube:
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=FU48yesvw9E
Accessed 7th November 2010.

7 Peak Silver?, Financial Sense:
http://www.financialsense.com/contributors/ryan-jordan/2011/09/28/peak-silver
Accessed 5th July 2012.

8 Stock Check, BBC:
http://www.bbc.co.uk/bbc.com/future/BBCF_infoData_stock_check.pdf
Accessed 5th July 2012.

9 Earth's natural wealth: an audit, New Scientist:
http://www.science.org.au/nova/newscientist/027ns_005.htm
Accessed 5th July 2012.

10 How Much Is Left? The Limits of Earth's Resources, Scientific American:
http://www.scientificamerican.com/article.cfm?id=how-much-is-left
Accessed 5th July 2012.

11 Study: Niger to suffer from the shrinking Lake Chad, PRLog:
http://www.prlog.org/10383828-study-niger-to-suffer-from-the-shrinking-lake-chad.html
Accessed 23rd November 2009.

12 Madagascar's Radiated Tortoise Could Disappear By 2030, Science 2.0:
http://www.science20.com/news_articles/madagascars_radiated_tortoise_could_disappear_2030
Accessed 19th December 2011.

13 10 natural wonders to see before they disappear, MSNBC:
http://www.msnbc.msn.com/id/42723289/ns/travel-destination_travel/t/natural-wonders-see-they-disappear/#.Tu9lMfL6M9Q
Accessed 19th December 2011.

14 Jupiter's Great Red Spot could disappear in a generation, The Raw Story:
http://www.rawstory.com/rs/2014/05/17/jupiters-great-red-spot-could-disappear-in-a-generation/
Accessed 18th May 2014.

15 The shrinking of Jupiter's Great Red Spot, The Hubble Space Telescope:
http://www.spacetelescope.org/news/heic1410/
Accessed 18th May 2014.

16 First it was an iceberg, now it's bacteria: Rust-eating species 'will destroy wreck of Titanic within 20 years', The Daily Mail:
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/sciencetech/article-1346446/Titanic-wreck-completely-destroyed-20-years-new-rust-eating-bacteria.html
Accessed 28th February 2011.

 

 
     
 
 
 
 

 


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