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2015-2019 Worsening economic crisis The contagion affecting the eurozone, originally confined to Greece, has spread to other parts of the continent, leading to the collapse of numerous banks, corporations and financial institutions. Bailout after bailout has failed to provide an adequate long term solution. Unemployment remains high, while poor consumer spending means governments are faced with lower tax revenues. Oil and food prices continue to rise.* Gold and silver have reached unprecedented highs.* Meanwhile, China is facing its own problems – including the fallout of a massive real estate bubble.* There are continued riots and protests throughout the world during this time, volatile market conditions and a number of frightening changes in society at large. Investor confidence is being eroded, with a growing reluctance to take risks. As debts worsen, there is no sign of a light at the end of the tunnel.*
Genome sequencing continues to improve exponentially The second half of this decade brings even greater advances. One major trend in recent years has been the increasing portability* of machines for analysing genomes. These are now becoming so sophisticated that they can provide results in a matter of seconds, at negligible costs. Handheld genome sequencers have a wide range of practical applications. They can be used by police at crime scenes, for example, to analyse biological evidence without needing to return it to the laboratory, saving time and money. Foreign aid workers in the developing world can identify viruses and verify water quality. Food inspectors can check for harmful pathogens in restaurants. Wildlife biologists can study genes in the field. But perhaps the most widespread use of genome sequencing is now among the general public, who can utilise it for a mere fraction of what it cost in the previous decade. Just as the Internet seemed to appear out of nowhere in the mid-1990s, personalised genomics is now exploding into the mainstream in the late 2010s. Its popularity stems from the health benefits and medical insights it offers: after the base pairs are sequenced, an individual's genotype can be cross-referenced with a database of published literature to determine the likelihood of trait expression and disease risk later in life. This allows someone to prepare many years in advance, and to seek treatment at a much earlier stage. By the end of this decade, tens of millions of human genomes have been sequenced around the world, as a new era of personalised medicine begins to emerge. At the same time, however, concerns are raised over genetic discrimination and privacy of information.
Five-year survival rates for thyroid cancer are approaching 100% Worldwide, an estimated 213,000 people were diagnosed with thyroid cancer in 2008. More than a quarter of cases occurred in the US. However, treatments already existed that offered an excellent prognosis. In addition to surgery (which included thyroidectomy, lobectomy and tracheostomy), numerous drugs were being developed that improved the outlook for sufferers still further. In the second half of the 2010s, five-year survival rates are approaching 100% in much of the developed world.**
Virtual
reality makes a comeback Much of the content in these 3D environments is user-generated, with online communities for sharing and exchanging virtual objects, buildings, avatars, etc. For the wealthy, some of the hardware options now available include pod-like structures which are fully enclosing and respond to a variety of gesture commands.*
Tigers are going extinct The 20th century saw tiger numbers plunge by over 95% worldwide. By the 1970s, they had disappeared from Central Asia, by the 1980s from Java and by the 1990s from South China. Three of the nine subspecies – Bali, Javan and Caspian tigers – were extinct by the 1980s. Tiger numbers continued to decline into the 21st century. By 2010, it was estimated that India – once a stronghold for these animals – had less than 800 left in the wild, while some of the rarer subspecies had only 30 individuals. Poaching remained a serious problem, with tiger skins fetching up to $20,000 in China. Habitat loss was accelerating, with farmers encroaching into tigers' territory and forests being cleared to make way for palm oil plantations. Summits were held between conservation groups and the few countries where tigers remained. These proved to be ineffectual, however, and were more about politicians wanting to be seen doing something, rather than tackling the issues on the ground. Within a few years, there were no longer any viable breeding populations of tigers, setting them on the path to irreversible decline. Once the most recognisable and popular of the world's megafauna, this animal would soon go the way of the dodo, with only small numbers remaining in zoos and private collections.*
The deadline for the Millennium Development Goals In 2000, the largest gathering of world leaders in history took place, as the 193 UN member states met in New York to discuss the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs). These were eight international objectives with ambitious targets for developing countries, most of them to be achieved by 2015.* • Goal 1: Eradicate extreme poverty and hunger • Goal 2: Achieve universal primary education • Goal 3: Promote gender equality and empower women • Goal 4: Reduce child mortality rates • Goal 5: Improve maternal health • Goal 6: Combat HIV/AIDS, malaria, and other diseases • Goal 7: Ensure environmental sustainability • Goal 8: Develop a global partnership for development
To accelerate progress towards the MDGs, the G-8 Finance Ministers met in London in June 2005 and reached an agreement to provide enough funds to the World Bank, the IMF and the African Development Bank to write off $55bn of debt owed by the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries (HIPC). This would allow these impoverished nations to re-channel the money saved from the cancelled debt to social programs for improving health and education and for alleviating poverty. Achieving the MDGs would not necessarily depend on economic growth alone and expensive solutions. In the case of MDG 4, some developing countries like Bangladesh showed that it was possible to reduce child mortality with only modest growth, via inexpensive but effective interventions such as measles immunisation. A number of important and innovative new technologies were also emerging - such as the $100 laptop project,* the LifeSaver bottle* and the genetic engineering of mosquitoes.*
By 2010, some countries had achieved many goals, while others were not on track to realise any. The countries with major success stories included China (whose citizens in poverty fell from 452m to 278m), India, Brazil, Thailand, Vietnam, Cuba, Honduras, Nicaragua, Ecuador and Ethiopia. However, some regions in Sub-Saharan Africa failed to make any significant changes in improving their quality of life. The prevalence of hunger in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), for example - Africa's 2nd largest country - more than doubled, while Zimbabwe saw a nearly 50% increase in poverty and Kenya's child mortality rate increased from 105 to 128 per 1000. Progress towards reaching the goals was therefore mixed. There were setbacks and disappointments. But overall, the reduction in poverty and increased access to health, education, technology and other essential services was without precedent in many countries' histories. Of particular note was the number of deaths due to AIDS, which saw a dramatic levelling off and decline.* By 2015, increasing global uncertainties such as the economic crisis, peak oil and climate change have led to a rethink of the MDG approach to development policy, with a new set of goals for 2030.
The Eurasian Union is formed The Eurasian Union is a political and economic union of Belarus, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, the Russian Federation, Tajikistan and other countries, in particular the post-Soviet states. The idea, based on the European Union's integration, was brought to attention in October 2011 by then-Prime Minister of Russia, Vladimir Putin, but was first proposed as a concept by the President of Kazakhstan, Nursultan Nazarbayev, during a 1994 speech at a Moscow university. On 18th November 2011, the presidents of Belarus, Kazakhstan and Russia signed an agreement, setting a target of establishing the Eurasian Union by 2015. The agreement included a roadmap for the future integration and established the Eurasian Commission (modelled on the European Commission) and the Eurasian Economic Space, which started work on 1st January 2012. It was speculated that future expansion of the Union might allow membership for other countries that have been historically or culturally close – such as Finland, Hungary, the Czech Republic, Bulgaria, China and Mongolia, incorporating them into a common state body where Russian would be the common language of communication and economic cooperation. According to Vladimir Putin, the Eurasian Union would build upon the "best values of the Soviet Union". However, critics expressed some concern at this "re-Sovietization" of Russia and Central Asia. The United States opposed the integration effort on human rights grounds.*
Expo 2015 is held in Milan, Italy The Universal Exposition is held in Milan this year, the first time the city has hosted the event since 1906. The main theme of the exposition is the future availability of food and water supplies and the state of nutrition and health in the years to come. New technology is on display, all with the aim of reducing poverty and famine around the world, as well as the spread of infectious diseases. A working prototype of a vertical farm is also presented as an alternative to traditional agriculture. This event serves as a catalyst for talks between concerned parties such as farmers, non-profit organisations, humanitarian workers and environmentalists, initiating new movements for change. Over 100 nations from around the world participate in the Expo. By the time it finishes in late 2015, many millions of people have visited.*
The
Large Hadron Collider reaches its maximum operating power The LHC lies in a tunnel 27 kilometres (17 mi) in circumference, as much as 175 metres (574 ft) beneath the Franco-Swiss border near Geneva, Switzerland. This synchrotron is designed to collide opposing particle beams of either protons at an energy of 7 tera-electronvolts (7 TeV) per particle, or lead nuclei at 574 TeV per nucleus. The term "hadron" refers to particles composed of quarks. The machine was built by the European Organisation for Nuclear Research (CERN) with the intention of testing various predictions of high-energy physics, including the existence of the hypothesised Higgs boson, and of the large family of new particles predicted by supersymmetry. It was built in collaboration with over 10,000 scientists and engineers from over 100 countries, as well as hundreds of universities and laboratories. In September 2008, the proton beams were successfully circulated in the main ring of the LHC for the first time – but nine days later its operations were halted due to a serious malfunction. In November 2009, they were successfully circulated again, the first recorded proton-proton collisions occurring three days later at the injection energy of 0.45 TeV per beam. After the 2009 winter shutdown, the LHC was restarted and the beam was ramped up to half power, 3.5 TeV per beam (i.e. half its designed energy). In March 2010, the first planned collisions took place between two 3.5 TeV beams – a new world record for the highest-energy particle collisions. The LHC continues to operate at half power until 2015, when it reaches its maximum design capacity of 7 TeV. Initially, the experiment sparked fear among the public that the collisions might produce a doomsday scenario, involving microscopic black holes or hypothetical particles known as strangelets. Two CERN-commissioned safety reviews examined these concerns and concluded that the experiments at the LHC presented no danger and that there was no reason for concern, a conclusion endorsed by the American Physical Society.
The world's first fully sustainable, zero-carbon, zero-waste city The first phase of Masdar City – a $22 billion eco-project – is completed in 2015.* This huge development is located outside of Abu Dhabi in the United Arab Emirates. Entirely pre-planned and self-contained, it is the world's first carbon neutral, zero waste and fully sustainable city. A multitude of green technologies are utilised – including the largest solar power plant in the Middle East, rooftop photovoltaics, wind farms, geothermal sources and a hydrogen power plant. The city's water needs are fulfilled by a solar-powered desalination plant. There are extensive recycling systems too. Masdar City will initially be home to around 7,000 residents and 15,000 commuters. Its commercial sector is primarily concerned with the manufacture of environmentally-friendly products. Automobiles are banned from the city, residents instead using integrated forms of mass transit and personal rapid transit.* It is connected to the rest of Abu Dhabi through rail and existing roadways. It contains a university, an institute of science and technology and hosts the headquarters of the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA). Masdar City will undergo major expansion. The final phase of the project will be completed by 2025, covering an area of 6 sq km (2.3 sq mi). By then, it will contain over 50,000 residents and 1,500 businesses.*
The world's first lunar tourist In 2001, Dennis Tito became the world's first space tourist, spending eight days on the International Space Station and orbiting Earth a total of 128 times. Tito paid a reported $20 million for his trip, through an arrangement with space tourism company Space Adventures Ltd. A number of startup companies sprang up in subsequent years, in the hope of creating a space tourism industry. These included Virgin Galactic, which used suborbital spacecraft designed by Scaled Composites and launched from Spaceport America. At a cost of $200,000 each, civilians could journey to a height of 110 km (68 miles), experiencing up to six minutes of zero-G whilst looking down on the Earth. Plans for an orbital hotel were also unveiled by Russian company Energiya, in partnership with Orbital Technologies, a US hi-tech firm. Space Adventures began to look further, however, setting its sights on an even more daring and ambitious venture. In 2015, the company offers the first lunar orbits to paying tourists. At a cost of $150 million, passengers can travel beyond Earth orbit, enjoying circumlunar trips and viewing the Moon from just 100 km (62 miles) above its surface - as well as viewing the famous Earthrise.* Only 24 people have ever experienced this. The craft is also considerably larger and more comfortable than those used during the Apollo program.*
A
new generation of hi-tech supercarriers
The
United States and South Korea dissolve the Combined Forces Command
The first large-scale solar updraft towers are operational The towers work by combining three old and proven technologies: the chimney effect, the greenhouse effect, and the wind turbine. Air is heated by the Sun and contained in a very large greenhouse-like structure around the base; the resulting convection causes air to rise up the chimney. This airflow then drives turbines, producing electricity. The towers have a number of advantages:
This new technology offers hope for the future, coming at a time when the world faces an impending energy crisis. Once proven to be commercially successful, it will be deployed on a wider scale in the 2020s.
Queen Elizabeth II becomes the longest reigning monarch in British history The six decades of her reign have witnessed enormous changes on the world stage - including the dismantling of the British Empire, the civil rights movement, the growing empowerment of women in society, the development of the Space Age, accelerating globalisation, the fall of communism in Europe, the end of the Cold War, the dawn of the information age, and the rise of China, to name but a few. Now aged 89, she is becoming noticeably frailer and has begun to scale back her official duties. The next milestone (assuming she lives that long) will be in 2022 - her Platinum Jubilee. Her eldest son Charles will succeed her, becoming King Charles III.
Gay marriage is legal in the UK This angered some Christian groups concerned that the sanctity of marriage was being threatened. It was criticised by gay rights activists, however, for not going far enough. The Act stopped short of awarding full marriage status, which they still viewed as a form of discrimination. The gay rights movement continued to gain momentum. A public consultation was conducted in 2012, aimed at further reform. This was supported by the conservative Prime Minister David Cameron, as part of a modernising drive included in his party's election manifesto. By 2015, full marriage rights are granted to gay couples in the UK.* Gay rights are also making progress in the USA, along with many other countries around the world.* The number of Americans supporting gay marriage has now overtaken those against.*
Battery technology gets a boost By 2015, the process is widely used in consumer electronics. Mobile phones can now be charged from flat in under 15 minutes, with a single charge lasting up to a week. This technology also paves the way for smaller and more efficient batteries for electric cars.
3D
printing is a mainstream consumer product Rather than using ink on paper, these machines can actually "print" 3D objects. This is achieved by melting nylon powder and then shaping it based on computer instructions. Countless different items can be produced – from jewellery and decorative giftware, to children's toys, kitchenware, replacement plugs, hooks, pipes, fittings, flooring and other household essentials. Users can download new items and configurations from the Web.* Artists and hobbyists can even create their own, using these printers in combination with 3D scanners and modeling software. In addition to falling costs, another reason that home 3D printing has taken off rapidly is that there is very little manufacturing being done in America and various other countries anymore. As a result, there is little or no pressure by manufacturing special interests against it. In the decades ahead, this technology will evolve into nanofabricators, capable of reproducing items with atomic precision within minutes. It will ultimately lead to matter replicators with near-instantaneous production of virtually any object – including foodstuffs.
LED lamps dominate the commercial and domestic lighting markets In the early 2010s, it was found that LED technology could vastly improve the brightness, colour and distribution of lighting in social housing communal areas. Not only that, but it could deliver huge energy savings (up to 90%), and reduce long-term costs and maintenance, while making residents feel safer.
One study measured the performance of 4,250 LED light fittings, installed at 35 sites. The authors of the report calculated a saving of over 3.4 million kilowatt hours (kWh) each year when compared with the previous systems – equivalent to lighting 5,800 average homes for a year with traditional lighting. Residents commented that their buildings felt safer, more secure and more pleasant because they were better illuminated. The light was fresher, brighter and more like daylight. With soaring energy prices, the high efficiency of LED lamps soon made them a very attractive investment. By 2015, this technology dominates both the commercial and domestic lighting markets.*
10
nanometre chips enter mass production
Scientists
resurrect the woolly mammoth Previous attempts to clone mammoths had failed, because the cell nuclei were too badly damaged by ice crystals; but new techniques have overcome this problem.* The mammoths take around 20 years to reach adulthood. By the 2030s, they are appearing in a number of zoos and private collections. Other extinct mammals are cloned too, such as the sabre-tooth tiger and Megatherium.
LifeSaver
bottles are in widespread use The "LifeSaver Bottle" filters water-borne pathogens, using holes just 15 nanometers across, to prevent even the smallest viruses (25 nanometers across) getting through, and eliminating the need for chemicals to treat the water. The Lifesaver Bottle is fitted with a 4000UF replaceable purification cartridge that removes bacteria, viruses, cysts, parasites, fungi, and all other microbiological water-borne pathogens. It also comes with an activated carbon filter, made of a high specification activated carbon block. This reduces a broad spectrum of chemical residues including: pesticides, endocrine disrupting compounds, medical residues and heavy metals such as lead and copper. The carbon filter also eliminates bad tastes and odors from contaminates such as chlorine and sulphur. It is designed to last for approximately 250 litres.*
The
Carteret Islands are abandoned Crops, trees and wells have been contaminated by seawater, while most of the buildings on the islands have been destroyed. Attempts to build sea wall defences were unsuccessful – these were simply washed away. The melting of polar ice sheets and glaciers, together with thermal expansion, could raise the level of Earth's oceans nearly 2m by 2100 - potentially displacing hundreds of millions of people worldwide.
New
Horizons arrives at Pluto
Dawn arrives at Ceres Ceres and Vesta are the two most massive members of the asteroid belt: 950 and 530 km in diameter, respectively. Dawn is the first probe to study and photograph them at close range. Both bodies formed very early in the history of the Solar System, thereby retaining a record of events and processes from the time of the formation of the terrestrial planets. Dawn is also innovative - it becomes the first spacecraft to enter into orbit around a celestial body, study it, then re-embark under powered flight to a second target. All previous multi-target missions (such as the Voyager program) have involved rapid planetary flybys.*
Voyager
I enters the heliopause Launched in 1977, its original mission was to visit Jupiter and Saturn. It became the first probe to provide detailed images of these planets and their moons. In 2003, it entered the "termination shock" - the point where solar wind particles slow down to subsonic speeds due to interactions with the local interstellar medium. By 2015, it has travelled so far that it has begun entering a region known as the "heliopause" - the point where the interstellar medium and solar wind pressures balance. It remains operational during this time, pursuing its extended mission to study the very boundaries of the Solar System, including the Kuiper Belt and beyond. The probe, along with its sister - Voyager II - will continue operating as they head for the "Bow Shock", the true beginnings of interstellar space. They will transmit signals back to Earth until at least 2025 (half a century after they were launched) before their power finally runs out.
Trucks with emergency braking systems are mandatory in Europe A radar and camera, working together to identify and monitor vehicles in front, can prevent a collision with a moving target at relative speeds of up to 44 mph (70 km/h). When the system detects a vehicle that the truck will hit at its current speed, the warning system activates a constant red light in the windscreen in order to attract the driver's attention. If the truck fails to detect any reaction from the driver, such as steering or braking, the light begins to flash red accompanied by a beeping sound. If there is still no reaction, the system applies the brakes gently. When all this fails too, an emergency braking system is activated, bringing the truck to a complete stop. In addition, to alert other drivers to the situation, the brake lights on the rear of the truck will change from fixed to flashing. By the end of this decade, the system is being extended to cars, too.* As more and more technology appears both in vehicles and road infrastructure, the number of accident fatalities continues to trend downwards,* reaching almost zero in the latter half of the century, with human drivers being entirely replaced by AI.
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References 1 U.S debt to rise to $19.6 trillion by 2015, Reuters: 2 United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' On Political Risks And Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative, Standard & Poors: 3 When will the oil run out?, The Guardian: 4 Gold jumps to a new high, BBC: 5 China's Ghost Cities and Malls, SBS Dateline: 6 Who Killed Economic Growth?, Post Carbon Institute: 7 The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil: 8 Compressive genomics, Nature: 9 DNA Sequencing Costs, National Human Genome Research Institute: 10 See 2014. 11 A cheap, portable and disposable DNA sequencer, Future Timeline Blog: 12 Browse the SEER Cancer Statistics Review 1975-2009, The National Cancer Institute: 13 Thyroid cancer survival statistics, Cancer Research UK (latest available data): 14 The Singularity is Near, by Ray Kurzweil: 15 Sony: Virtual reality gaming's 'going to be absolutely amazing', ComputerAndVideoGames.com 16 NAU, an international design collective, is developing a prototype of
the "Immersive Cocoon". This pod-like structure fully encloses
a person, allowing graphics to be displayed around them in a 3-D environment,
with 360° screens and full surround sound. NAU completes its prototype
in 2009, and models are going to be commercially available by 2014. See Designers developing virtual-reality 'Cocoon', CNN.com: 17 The five-year race to save India's vanishing tigers, The Guardian: 18 The UN - Millenium Development Goals: 19 '$100 laptop' production begins, BBC: 20 Michael Pritchard makes filthy water drinkable, TEDTalks: 21 See Biology & Medicine > Malaria 22 Millenium Development Goals Report Card: Measuring Progress Across Countries, Overseas Development Institute: 23 Clinton Calls Eurasian Integration An Effort To 'Re-Sovietize', Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: 24 World Expo 2015 Milan - The Official Site: 25 Masdar City > What's Next: 26 Personal Rapid Transit and Masdar City PRT, YouTube: 27 Podcast: The Masdar City Experiment: A Conversation with Alan Frost, Smart+Connected Communities Institute: 28"Despite
a nine-figure ticket price, the firm has already signed up a passenger
for a maiden moon journey. And if it inks a second customer soon, the
mission could launch within three to five years, company officials say." 29 Space Tourist Trips Around the Moon Get Roomier Spaceship, Space.com: 30 Gerald R. Ford class aircraft carrier, Wikipedia: 31 Why Doesn't South Korea Defend The United States?, Forbes: 32 Twice the height of the Empire State - EnviroMission plans massive solar tower for Arizona, gizmag: 33 EnviroMission Limited: 34 List of longest-reigning British monarchs, Wikipedia: 35 Ministers to consult on legalising same-sex marriages, BBC: 36 Timeline of same-sex marriage, Wikipedia: 37 See 2024. 38 "The technology could be seen in the marketplace in the next three to five years..." 39 Dimension uPrint Personal 3D Printers, Stratasys, Inc.: 40 3D Printers Drop in Price, Almost Ready to Invade Your Home, Gizmodo: 41 Emerging trends: 3D printing; robots galore; human augmentation, ZDNet: 42 Shapeways: 43 LEDs offer brighter future for social housing, The Energy Saving Trust: 44 Intel Announces first 22nm 3D Tri-Gate Transistors, Shipping
in 2H 2011, AnandTech: 45 Mammoth 'could be reborn in four years', The Telegraph: 46 Michael Pritchard makes filthy water drinkable, TEDTalks: 47 Carteret Islands: 'The sea is killing our island paradise', The Telegraph: 48 New Horizons official website: 49 Dawn - Journey to the Asteroid Belt, NASA: 50 Volvo Trucks introduces Collision Warning with Emergency Brake, Volvo Trucks Global: 51 See 2019. 52 American Gun Deaths to Exceed Traffic Fatalities by 2015, Bloomberg:
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