Climate Change News & Discussions

[caltrek]

^^^^Dynamite speech. (See bottom of previous page).

[weatheriscool]

In Brazilian Amazon, savannization and climate change will expose 12 million to lethal heat stress
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-brazilian ... xpose.html
by Fiocruz Piauí

Large-scale deforestation of the Amazon rainforest, combined with climate change, will increase the number of people in northern Brazil who are exposed to extreme heat—with potentially deadly results and devastating economic impacts, according to a groundbreaking study released today by Brazilian researchers in the journal Communications Earth & Environment.

Extreme heat levels, which are physiologically intolerable to the human body, will profoundly affect regions where highly vulnerable populations, including Indigenous Peoples, reside. This is the first study to quantify the combined impacts of rampant forest loss—which would eventually transform the Amazon into a savanna—and climate change on human health and productivity.

According to the study, Deforestation and climate change project increased risk of heat stress in the Brazilian Amazon, there is a deforestation threshold in the Amazon, beyond which human survival is threatened. Crossing this threshold causes an "extreme health effect," which by 2100 could expose approximately 12 million people living in the northern states of Pará and Amazonas in Brazil to extreme risk of heat stress.

"Extreme heat conditions induced by deforestation may have significant and long-lasting adverse effects on human health. If deforestation continues at its current rate, the effects for our civilization will be dramatic," said report co-author Paulo Nobre, senior researcher at Brazil's National Institute for Space Research (INPE). "In addition to impacts on human health and survival, these findings have serious economic implications far beyond crop damage." Paulo Nobre wrote the report with Beatriz Alves de Oliveira, Marcus Bottino, and Carlos Nobre.

[caltrek]

Apple and Disney Among Companies Backing Groups Against U.S. Climate Bill
by Oliver Milman
October 1, 2021

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... l-analysis

Introduction:

(The Guardian) Some of America’s most prominent companies, including Apple, Amazon, Microsoft and Disney, are backing business groups that are fighting landmark climate legislation, despite their own promises to combat the climate crisis, a new analysis has found.

A clutch of corporate lobby groups and organizations have mobilized to oppose the proposed $3.5tn budget bill put forward by Democrats, which contains unprecedented measures to drive down planet-heating gases. The reconciliation bill has been called the “the most significant climate action in our country’s history” by Chuck Schumer, the Democratic leader in the US Senate.

Most large US corporations have expressed concern over the climate crisis or announced their own goals to cut greenhouse gases. Jeff Bezos, one of the world’s richest people, has said that the climate crisis is the “biggest threat to our planet” and the company he founded, Amazon, has created a pledge for businesses to cut their emissions to net zero by 2040. Microsoft has promised to be “carbon negative” within a decade from now and Disney is aiming to use only renewable-sourced electricity within the same timeframe.

But these leading companies, and others, either support or actively steer the very lobby groups that are attempting to sink the bill that carries the weight of Joe Biden’s ambitions to tackle the climate crisis, threatening one of the last major legislative efforts that will help decide whether parts of the world plunge into a new, barely livable climatic state.

“Major corporations love to tell us how committed they are to addressing the climate crisis and building a sustainable future, but behind closed doors, they are funding the very industry trade groups that are fighting tooth and nail to stop the biggest climate change bill ever,” said Kyle Herrig, president of watchdog group Accountable.US, which compiled the analysis.

[Redspector]

https://www.architecturaldigest.com/sto ... d-turbines

New York City is making a big investment in renewable energy that will literally change the city’s landscape.

Last week, Mayor Bill de Blasio announced plans for a $191 million investment in offshore wind turbines that will help the city reach a goal of 100% clean electricity production by 2030 and reaching full carbon neutrality by 2050. Developed in collaboration with the New York City Economic Development Corporation, the Offshore Wind Vision plan promises to reduce 34.5 million tons of carbon dioxide, the equivalent of removing 500,000 cars from Manhattan streets, while generating 13,000 jobs and $1.3 billion in average annual investments.

“The climate crisis is real,” De Blasio said in a release. “New York City will serve as the model for taking climate action and growing the offshore wind industry with a real long-term vision plan focused on equity. We have the opportunity now to deliver on promises and set the city on a path towards a sustainable future.”

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Climate change may already impact majority of humanity: study

Researchers found some 100,000 papers that potentially documented evidence of climate change's effects.

The effects of climate change could already be impacting 85 percent of the world's population, an analysis of tens of thousands of scientific studies said Monday.

A team of researchers used machine learning to comb through vast troves of research published between 1951 and 2018 and found some 100,000 papers that potentially documented evidence of climate change's effects on the Earth's systems.

"We have overwhelming evidence that climate change is affecting all continents, all systems," study author Max Callaghan told AFP in an interview.

He added there was a "huge amount of evidence" showing the ways in which these impacts are being felt.

The researchers taught a computer to identify climate-relevant studies, generating a list of papers on topics from disrupted butterfly migration to heat-related human deaths to forestry cover changes.

https://phys.org/news/2021-10-climate-i ... anity.html

[caltrek]

Artificial Intelligence Analysis of 100,000 Climate Studies Reveals How Massive The Crisis Already Is
by Peter Dockrill
October 11, 2021

https://www.sciencealert.com/giant-ai-a ... already-is

Introduction:

(Science Alert) Some problems are so big, you can't really see them.

Climate change is the perfect example. The basics are simple: the climate is heating up due to fossil fuel use. But the nitty gritty is so vast and complicated that our understanding of it is always evolving. Evolving so rapidly, in fact, that it's basically impossible for humans to keep up.

"Since the first assessment report (AR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990, we estimate that the number of studies relevant to observed climate impacts published per year has increased by more than two orders of magnitude," scientists explain in a new paper, led by first author and quantitative data researcher Max Callaghan from the Mercator Research Institute on Global Commons and Climate Change (MCC) in Germany.

"This exponential growth in peer-reviewed scientific publications on climate change is already pushing manual expert assessments to their limits."

This struggle is its own problem, of course, because how can humans ever grasp the problem of climate change, if the size of the problem defies our ability to objectively analyze it, measure it, and understand it?

[caltrek]

Toxic Algae Blooms Are Multiplying
by Zoya Teirstein
October 14, 2021

https://grist.org/politics/toxic-algae- ... n-to-help/

Extract:

(Grist) Most of the air we breathe comes from algae and other aquatic organisms that have been photosynthesizing sunlight into oxygen for a billion years. But not all algae are life-giving. Blue-green algae contain a powerful class of toxins called cyanotoxins. When these algae form blooms — rapid accumulations of algae in fresh or marine water — they can damage ecosystems and cause vomiting, fever, headache, neurological problems, and even death in humans and animals.

These poisonous organisms have been cropping up a lot lately. Beaver Lake in Asheville, North Carolina, was closed last week after local officials found toxic algae in the water. Three dogs died from playing on a beach suspected to be contaminated with toxic algae on the Columbia River in Washington state last month. In California, the Bureau of Land Management closed a 28-mile stretch along the Merced River after water samples south of where a family of hikers mysteriously died in August showed high levels of toxic algae. These types of incidents are not rare. A new study from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention estimates that toxic algae sent more than 300 Americans to the emergency room between 2017 and 2019.

…Algal blooms are sparked by nutrients, an umbrella term for the chemical elements phosphorus and nitrogen, which are often used by farmers to fertilize their fields…chemically treated water from wastewater plants and water from storm drains containing a cocktail of urban pollution. Atmospheric pollution from fossil fuel plants and cars can seed algal blooms, too.

Climate change also fuels blooms, albeit more indirectly. Research shows that algae thrive in bodies of water warmed by climate change. And erratic weather like intense tropical storms and extreme rainfall, byproducts of a warming planet, serve as catalysts for new blooms by helping nutrients leach into bodies of water and moving algae around. Blue-green algae, also known as cyanobacteria, particularly like it when heavy rain is followed by a big drought — a pattern that’s becoming more common with climate change — because the rain pushes algae downstream into new areas and then drought forces that water and the algae in it to stagnate, which then allows the algae to proliferate unchecked.

[wjfox]

Manchin again.

You still a fan of this guy, Caltrek?

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[wjfox]

[caltrek]

You still a fan of this guy, Caltrek?

When did I say I was a fan of Manchin?

That is like saying you are a fan of Boris Johnson because, if memory serves me correct, you indicated that he was not as bad as Donald Trump.

I do think it is important to note that Manchin's state, West Virginia, voted for Trump 68.6% to Biden's 29.7%. It is hardly surprising that Manchin would put some distance between himself and Biden. Sure, if I had my way, West Virginia would have voted 68.6% for Biden (after sending a delegation to the Democratic convention consisting exclusively of Sanders supporters). Unfortunately, that is not the reality of the situation.

[wjfox]

[raklian]

I think at this point, Biden will have to change his negotiation tactics from that of a carrot to a stick. He needs to lay out to Manchin how he will punish him if he doesn't stick with the overall Democratic agenda.

[erowind]

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[wjfox]

[erowind]

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[caltrek]

^^^ For the United States government, the situation was particularly bad under Trump. There was a systematic and concerted effort to suppress any mention of the effects of climate change and its anthropogenic causes.

Under the Biden administration, officials can now at lest talk about the problem. Unfortunately, that is where we should have been decades ago. At this point dramatic action is needed. As noted in earlier posts, this dramatic action may very well be blocked by a coalition of Republican and conservative Democratic senators. Even the more ambitious agenda proposed by the Biden administration was probably not enough. We are already starting to pay the steep price for ignoring the problem. For future generations the problem is likely to get a lot worse before it gets better, but hey, at least government scientists can now talk about how the situation is so pathetically bad.

Yes, I am angry too.

[caltrek]

Speaking of the Biden administration at least talking about the situation, the White recently released a statement on the matter. Coming form the White House, it is a public document, so limitations on length of citation need not apply. I have provided an edited version in the quote box below to shorten it up a little bit to help focus on what I regard as the most essential points.

Fact Sheet: Prioritizing Climate in Foreign Policy and National Security

https://www.whitehouse.gov/briefing-roo ... -security/

Extract:

(The White House) The…National Intelligence Estimate (NIE) on Climate Change…is the most authoritative assessment from the Intelligence Community (IC) and represents the consensus view of all 18 IC elements. The U.S. Federal Science Agencies provided the baseline observational data and climate modeling that enabled the IC to conduct the geopolitical analysis of the implications and risks to the United States….

Climate change will increasingly exacerbate a number of risks to U.S. national security interests, from physical impacts that could cascade into security challenges, to how countries respond to the climate challenge. While the IC judges that all of these risks will increase and that no country will be spared from challenges directly related to climate change.

The three broad category of risks are: 1) increased geopolitical tension as countries argue over who should be doing more, and how quickly, and compete in the ensuing energy transition; 2) cross-border geopolitical flashpoints from the physical effects of climate change as countries take steps to secure their interests; and 3) climate effects straining country-level stability in select countries and regions of concern.

... Both climate change threats and the global efforts to address climate change will influence U.S. defense strategic interests, relationships, competition, and priorities. The Department of Defense (DOD) Climate Risk Analysis (DCRA)—the first Pentagon report focused on the strategic risks of climate change—provides a starting point for a shared understanding of these risks and lays out a path forward. The DCRA describes how DOD will integrate climate considerations into strategic, planning, budget, and other key documents, as well as engagements with allies and partners. Inclusion of climate considerations across these documents will ensure that DOD considers the effects of climate change at every level, which will be essential to train, fight, and win in an increasingly complex environment.

… Climate considerations will be included in key DOD documents, such as the forthcoming National Defense Strategy, which guides the ways DOD meets national security challenges. Additionally, the DCRA will inform how the Department incorporates climate considerations into its engagements with allies and partners. For example, DOD worked closely with NATO Allies to develop a Climate Change and Security Agenda and subsequent Action Plan in June of this year.

With a focus on strategic and mission risk, the DCRA is complementary to the recently released Climate Adaption Plan (CAP), which is focused on ensuring that DOD can operate under changing climate conditions. DOD will also work in coordination with allies and partners, to prevent, mitigate, account for, and respond to defense and security risks associated with climate change.

... The Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is on the frontlines of the climate crisis, with a duty to safeguard the homeland from today’s increasingly severe, frequent, and destructive climate change related emergencies, forecasting and preparing for future risks and opportunities created by tomorrow’s challenges. DHS supports all communities by leading through acute crises and envisioning the actions needed to increase our future resilience. As part of that mandate, today DHS is releasing the Strategic Framework for Addressing Climate Change, signed by Secretary Mayorkas on [October 20, 2021], to lead adaptation to changes in the climate risk landscape resulting from strategic competition, demographic trends, aging infrastructure, and emerging technology.

The Strategic Framework will guide DHS’s implementation of President Biden’s Executive Order on addressing the impacts of climate change at home and abroad, and includes the five lines of effort: empowering individuals and communities to develop climate resilience; building readiness to respond to increases in climate-driven emergencies; incorporating climate science into strategy, policy, programs, and budgets; investing in a sustainable and resilient DHS; and ensuring the DHS workforce is informed on climate change. The need to achieve equity will be a guiding principle throughout each line of effort described in the Strategic Framework.

The Framework was developed through the first-ever DHS Climate Change Action Group (CCAG), comprised of senior officials from across the Department and focused on promoting resilience and addressing multiple risks, including flooding, extreme heat, drought, and wildfires.

…In Executive Order 14013, President Biden called for an assessment of the impact climate change is having on migration. This assessment marks the first time the U.S. Government is officially recognizing and reporting on this linkage. The report identifies migration as an important form of adaptation to the impacts of climate change and in some cases, an essential response to climate threats, to livelihoods and wellbeing; therefore it requires careful management to ensure it is safe, orderly, and humane. Development and humanitarian assistance programs help address underlying causes of forced migration and displacement in the face of insecurity. Addressing individuals’ human security can decrease the likelihood of migration and the second-order implications for international security. It is critical to approach these efforts in a way that acknowledges that in almost all cases climate change is not the sole driver of migration.

The Report on the Impact of Climate Change on Migration can be found here: https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/u ... ration.pdf

[weatheriscool]

Historical analysis finds no precedent for the rate of coal, gas power decline needed to limit climate change to 1.5C
https://phys.org/news/2021-10-historica ... power.html
by Cell Press

Limiting climate change to the 1.5°C target set by the Paris Climate Agreement will likely require coal and gas power use to decline at rates that are unprecedented for any large country, an analysis of decadal episodes of fossil fuel decline in 105 countries between 1960 and 2018 shows. Furthermore, the findings, published October 22 in the journal One Earth, suggest that the most rapid historical cases of fossil fuel decline occurred when oil was replaced by coal, gas, or nuclear power in response to energy security threats of the 1970s and the 1980s.

Decarbonizing the energy sector is a particularly important strategy for reaching the goal of net-zero greenhouse gas emissions by 2050, which is necessary in order to prevent global average temperatures from climbing beyond 1.5°C this century. However, few studies have investigated the historical precedent for such a sudden and sweeping transition—especially the decline of carbon-intensive technologies that must accompany the widespread adoption of greener ones.

"This is the first study that systematically analyzed historical cases of decline in fossil fuel use in individual countries over the last 60 years and around the world," says Jessica Jewell, an associate professor in energy transitions at Chalmers University in Sweden, a professor at the University of Bergen in Norway, and the corresponding author of the study. "Prior studies sometimes looked at the world as a whole but failed to find such cases, because on the global level the use of fossil fuels has always grown over time."

"We also studied recent political pledges to completely phase out coal power, which some 30 countries made as part of the Powering Past Coal Alliance. We found that these pledges do not aim for faster coal decline than what has occurred historically," adds Jewell. "In other words, they plan for largely business as usual."

To explore whether any periods of historical fossil fuel decline are similar to scenarios needed to achieve the Paris target, Jewell and her colleagues, Vadim Vinichenko, a post-doctoral researcher at Chalmers and Aleh Cherp, a professor at Central European University in Austria and Lund University in Sweden, identified 147 episodes within a sample of 105 countries between 1960 and 2018 in which coal, oil, or natural gas use declined faster than 5% over a decade. Rapid decline in fossil fuel use has been historically limited to small countries, such as Denmark, but such cases are less relevant to climate scenarios, where decline should take place in continental-size regions.

[erowind]

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