2025-2026 election thread for Senate, House, State and cities

[firestar464]

https://nashvillefitmagazine.com/meet-b ... o-himself/

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[caltrek]

Peltola Leads in Alaska Senate Race
August 17, 2026

Extract:

(Data for Progress) For the U.S. Senate race, we set up a hypothetical, four-candidate, ranked choice general election ballot — featuring Mary Peltola, incumbent Senator Dan Sullivan, Daniel J. Sullivan Jr., a retired Petersburg teacher who shares the incumbent's name, and Gerald Heikes, a frequent candidate in past Alaska elections — in an attempt to understand the effect that Sullivan Jr. and a minor candidate like Heikes might have on the ranked choice general election. In the first round, Peltola leads with 47% to Sen. Sullivan's 41%...

In the simulated final round, Peltola leads Sen. Sullivan 53% to 47%.

Read more here: https://www.dataforprogress.org/blog/ ... nate-race

[wjfox]

Latest polling is hilariously bad for Trump. Especially among Hispanics... lol.

Analysis by Mark Romano:

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[caltrek]

Alaska Was a Trial Run for Democrats’ Senate Majority Hopes. How Did It Go?
By Aaron Blake
August 20, 2026

Introduction:

(CNN) The Alaska primary on Tuesday presented us with something unusual ahead of the 2026 midterm elections: An actual matchup between the two candidates who will face off in November in a key Senate race.

That’s because the state uses an all-party primary system and ranked-choice voting. Also, there were no other serious contenders.
The results should be pretty encouraging for Democrats.

With about 80% of votes counted, Democratic former Rep. Mary Peltola leads Republican Sen. Dan Sullivan, 48.1% to 42.7%. The rest of the vote was split up between also-ran candidates from both parties trying to make the general election by finishing in the top four.

And given most of the votes left to count are advance ballots, which Peltola has done well with so far, she could expand her advantage further, possibly approaching 50%.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi ... 254&ei=59

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[caltrek]

‘Organized People Won’: Aisha Wahab Defeats Millions in AIPAC Spending to Win U.S. House Race in California
By Jake Johnson
August 21, 2026

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Progressive California state Sen. Aisha Wahab has won a special election to serve the remainder of disgraced former Rep. Eric Swalwell’s term in the US Congress, defeating a centrist Democrat backed by millions of dollars in AIPAC spending.

“This victory belongs to the voters who made clear that our district cannot be bought,” Wahab said in response to news of her victory, which came some 48 hours after election day. “Through one of the ugliest, most expensive elections we’ve ever seen, we never took the bait or went negative. We stayed focused on the people, and I will fight for this district that raised me.”

Wahab, who ran on slashing prescription drug costs and ending forever wars, will represent California’s 14th Congressional District until at least January. In November, Wahab will face Bay Area Rapid Transit board member Melissa Hernandez again in a race for a full two-year term in the US House. Tuesday’s special election was significantly closer than earlier primary contests, signaling a highly competitive race later this year.

Our Revolution, a progressive advocacy organization that backed Wahab, called her win “a national model for how progressives can defeat big-money outside groups and build a Democratic Party rooted in working people.” The United Democracy Project, AIPAC’s super PAC, spent $2.5 million on the contest in an effort to boost Hernandez.

BOLD America, a separate super PAC that has received funding from AIPAC, also threw millions of dollars behind Hernandez. By contrast, The American Prospect reported that Wahab’s outside support came “from the state’s leading labor organization, from the leadership PAC of Rep. Pramila Jayapal (D-Wash.), and from the PAC for the Congressional Progressive Caucus.”

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/org ... ouse-race

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[caltrek]

In earlier posts, I provided a summary of close U.S. Senate races in 2026. Axios has provided a recent summary along those same lines:

https://www.axios.com/2026/08/23/senate ... i-nebraska

[caltrek]

New University of Texas/Texas Politics Project Poll Finds Talarico Leading Paxton and Abbott Leading Hinojosa.
By James Henson and Joshua Blank
August 24, 2026

Introduction:

(The Texas Politics Project) A new University of Texas/Texas Politics Project poll finds 42% of Texas voters preferring Democrat James Talarico and 39% planning to vote for Republican Ken Paxton in the hotly contested U.S. Senate race in Texas, with the remaining 3% opting for Libertarian Ted Brown and 14% expressing no preference. The poll found Republican candidates leading by single digits in the other major statewide races included in the survey, amidst persistent negative views of the economy and continued opposition to the construction of data centers.

In the trial ballot for governor, incumbent Greg Abbott leads his Democratic challenger, Austin-area state representative Gina Hinojosa, 45% to 40%, with the remaining 3% preferring Libertarian Pat Dixon, 2% choosing an unspecified “someone else,” and 10% unable to express an opinion. In his most recent successful campaign for governor in 2022, Abbott defeated his Democratic opponent Beto O’Rourke 54.8% to 43.9%.

Read more here: https://texaspolitics.utexas.edu/blog/ ... nters-2

caltrek's comment: The real take away from this poll is that the race is too close to call. Past years have on some occasions shown the Democrats to overperform while on other occasions shown the Republicans to overperform. A lot rests on the accuracy on the poll as well as such factors the level of voter turnout (relatively high for one party versus low for the other). Polls usually seek to factor in these variables, but it is extremely difficult to do so with accuracy.

[firestar464]

i do believe that dems will do very well just because of how hated Trump is

[firestar464]

[caltrek]

New Poll: In Texas General Election, Talarico Leads Paxton by Six Points; Abbott Leads Hinojosa by Seven Points
August 27, 2026

Introduction:

Texas Public Opinion Research (TPOR)—a nonpartisan polling initiative dedicated to exploring Texans’ beliefs and priorities—today released a new poll of likely Texas general election voters, focused on the 2026 statewide races, including the contests for U.S. Senate, Governor, Attorney General, Lieutenant Governor, Comptroller, Agriculture Commissioner, Land Commissioner, and Railroad Commissioner.

This is the first in a series of monthly tracking polls that TPOR will release through the November 3 election.

The poll finds Democrat James Talarico (48%) leading Republican Ken Paxton (42%) by six points in the U.S. Senate race. Meanwhile, Republican Greg Abbott (49%) leads Democrat Gina Hinojosa (42%) by seven points in the Governor’s race. In the Attorney General’s race, Republican Mayes Middleton leads Democrat Nathan Johnson by three points (44% to 41%).

Note: For this tracking poll series, topline results include leaners.

The survey of 1,000 likely Texas voters was conducted from August 21 to August 24, 2026 and has a margin of error of ±3.3 percentage points. The full topline is available here, and crosstabs are available upon request.

Read more here: https://texaspublicopinionresearch.sub ... election

caltrek’s comment: It is hard to believe that Talarico will underperform by six points and Abbott will underperform by seven points. Still some campaigning remaining, but this looks good for Democrat chances of picking up a U.S. Senate seat and not so good for winning the governorship.

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[caltrek]

Texas Republican Redistricting 'Comes Back to Bite Them'
By Sarah K. Burris
August 27, 2026

Introduction:

(Alternet via MSN) The push to draw fewer Democratic districts in the state of Texas appears to have caused problems for Republicans, CNN explained on Thursday.

During a panel discussion, host Dana Bash cited three Texas districts that were redrawn to benefit Republicans, which now appear as if a Democrat could actually win.

Speaker Mike Johnson is down in South Texas to help campaign for Republicans there, Bash noted. These are districts that Trump won by 10 points or more in 2024.

Atlanta Journal-Constitution Washington Bureau Chief Tia Mitchell identified it as the "limitations of trying to draw your way into a majority, but it also shows the limitations of some of Trump's policies that really play to, you know, your white MAGA base, honestly."

However, she explained, there are voters who may have supported Trump in 2024 from the Latino community and are now turned off by his mass deportations and the capture of non-criminal immigrants.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/t ... c3&ei=67

caltrek’s comment: At its most extreme it is called “dummymandering.”

After the election, watch the Republicans complain that for winning Democrats the district lines that they drew resulted in a “stolen election.” Something like “It was those crafty Democrats that tricked us into adopting these boundaries. So, the results need to be overturned.”

[caltrek]

Democrat Shocks Texas with 14-Point Upset in Trump +17 District, Flipping Texas Senate GOP Seat Held for 30 Years
By IdahoPublicPress Editorial Team
August 27, 2026

Introduction:

(Idaho Public Press) The Fort Worth-area special election gave Democrats a notable upset in a district Donald Trump carried by 17 points in 2024. The result does not alter Republican control of the Texas Senate, and the same two candidates are expected to face each other again in November.

Democrat Taylor Rehmet won the Texas state Senate seat in Senate District 9 on Saturday, defeating Trump-backed Republican Leigh Wambsganss in the special election. Republicans had controlled the Fort Worth-area district for about 30 years, making Rehmet’s victory in a seat Trump won by 17 points in 2024 a significant political surprise.

The win gives Democrats a temporary foothold in one of the state’s more Republican-leaning legislative districts. It also renews a familiar question heading into November about whether the energy, turnout and organization seen in special elections can carry over into larger general election contests.
…
The seat opened after Republican Kelly Hancock, a four-term state senator, resigned to accept a statewide position. Hancock had won the district comfortably in previous elections, and Republicans had held the seat for decades.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/d ... d43&ei=34

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