2025-2026 election thread for Senate, House, State and cities

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[caltrek]

Democrats Chances of Winning Senate Seat In Maine Surge as Graham Platner Declares He Is Leaving the Race
By Andrew Stanton
July 9, 2026

Introduction:

(Newsweek via MSN) Democrats’ chances of beating Republican Senator Susan Collins to flip the U.S. Senate seat in Maine have surged as Graham Platner declared he was leaving the critical race, according to prediction markets.

Platner announced Wednesday evening that he would suspend campaign operations amid multiple allegations of sexual assault, which he denied to Newsweek. Under Maine law, he had until July 13 to withdraw and allow the state party to select a new nominee to face off against Collins.

Additional Extract:

What to Know
• After Platner said he plans to suspend his campaign, several Democrats, including former state Senate President Troy Jackson, Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former Maine Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director Nirav Shah jumped into the race.

• A new poll from Z to A Research showed Collins locked in close races against each of them. Shah led Collins by a single point, while Collins led Jackson by a point in the poll. Bellows and Collins were tied.

• Prediction markets Kalshi and Polymarket show Democrats’ chance of flipping the Senate seat increase over recent days as traders react to news that Platner is leaving the race.

• Although Platner said he intends to file paperwork to formally withdraw, the Maine Secretary of State’s office told Newsweek he had not done so yet by mid-afternoon Thursday. Meanwhile, the Maine Democratic Party is already working to set up a convention to nominate a new candidate

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/s ... c6d7e&ei=

[caltrek]

‘I’ll Be a Vote for Medicare for All’: Troy Jackson Makes His Case After Platner Exit
By Jake Johnson
July 9, 2026

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Troy Jackson, a fifth-generation logger from northern Maine who previously served as the state’s Senate president, is making the case that he has the best shot at unseating Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November following Graham Platner’s exit from the race on Wednesday.

“There is a powerful movement of working class people in the state of Maine, and millions more across America who are ready to send a progressive fighter to the Senate,” Jackson wrote in a social media post on Wednesday, formally announcing his Senate run. “I’ve been fighting for that movement my whole life—and I’m sure as hell not backing down now, when this fight is needed most.”

“I’m in,” he added. “And we’re going to defeat Susan Collins. Maine deserves a senator that will fight for working families.”

Jackson, who filed federal paperwork earlier this week to explore a US Senate bid as the Maine Democratic Party scrambled to construct a process to choose Platner’s replacement ahead of the July 27 deadline, recently fell short in a highly competitive race for the Maine Democratic Party’s gubernatorial nomination.

But those who are rallying behind Jackson argue his economic populist messaging, union backing, support for Medicare for All, and appeal across broad swaths of Maine—including rural counties—make him the most sensible choice to take on Collins, who is running for a sixth term in the US Senate.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/troy ... platner

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

OR-GOV: Early signs suggest Oregon governor's race is competitive

Democrats appear to have political winds at their back this year, but the party can’t take the race for Oregon governor for granted.

That’s the message of a one-two punch of new developments in the race between Gov. Tina Kotek and her Republican challenger, state Sen. Christine Drazan, this week.

First, Drazan’s campaign has been circulating internal polling that suggests the candidate could be leading Kotek in the race — a result that, while inconclusive, has Republicans privately ecstatic.

The poll of 600 Oregon voters in late June showed 48% favored Drazan, 44% favored Kotek and 6% were undecided, according to high-level results released by the campaign. The final 2% either refused to answer or indicated support for a third party.

https://www.opb.org/article/2026/07/10/ ... igns-show/

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

‘This Is What Lindsey Would Have Wanted’: Graham’s Sister Emotionally Accepts Appointment to Finish His Term
By Sarah Rumpf
July 13, 2026

Introduction:

(Mediaite) Darline Graham Nordone, the younger sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) delivered an emotional speech Monday as she accepted an appointment to finish her brother’s term, saying she believed this is what her brother would have wanted.

Graham, 71, passed away unexpectedly on Saturday. The preliminary cause of death was aortic dissection due to arteriosclerotic cardiovascular disease, according to a statement released by the senator’s office. His little sister was only 13 years old when both their parents died within 15 months of each other and he became her legal guardian.

Under South Carolina law, Gov. Henry McMaster (R) has the power to appoint someone to finish Graham’s term, and on Monday, both President Donald Trump and Sen. Tim Scott (R-SC) urged the governor to choose the senator’s sister. Multiple media outlets reported Monday afternoon that McMaster had indeed decided to appoint Graham Nordone; the announcement was soon made official.

In a press conference at the South Carolina Statehouse in the state capital Columbia, McMaster delivered some brief remarks in tribute to Graham, “this poor boy from a little town in South Carolina,” and said it was his “duty and honor to name someone to serve in the place of this irresistible man, this irreplaceable man, this extraordinary man, for the remainder of his term.”

McMaster said that Graham Nordone had “agreed to serve through tears” and he was “humbled by your quickness to see the duty that you had to serve.” The governor added that he had “called the president afterwards and he thought it was a great idea, and I’m sure that everyone here does as well.”

Read more here: https://www.mediaite.com/politics/this ... s-term/

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Democrats Dominate Fundraising in Key Senate Races, but GOP Still Has Ample Resources
By Will Lennon
July 17, 2026

Introduction:

(ABC News) Democrats raised more money than their Republican opponents in key Senate races across the country in the second quarter, according to campaign finance filings made this week to the Federal Election Commission.

In Georgia, Democratic Sen. Jon Ossoff raised almost ten times what Republican Rep. Mike Collins did. In Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown outraised Republican Sen. Jon Husted by roughly $10 million. In Texas, Democrat James Talarico outraised Republican Ken Paxton by over $26 million.

Talarico's haul marks a new record for second quarter fundraising, far surpassing other Democrats who previously pursued Senate seats in Texas.

At this point in Beto O'Rourke's 2018 campaign, O'Rourke had raised a grand total of just under $24 million since the start of the election cycle. MJ Hegar had raised $6.6 million in 2020, and Colin Allred had raised over $38 million in 2024. All three of those Democratic candidates ultimately lost their general election fights.

Talarico has raised nearly $69 million this cycle, and the candidate still has over $21 million to spend. Lone Star Rising, a super PAC that supports Talarico, raised $12.7 million in the second quarter, most of it from LinkedIn co-founder Reid Hoffman.

Among the “ample resources" of the Republican party, as discussed in the cited article (see provided link), is the cash on hand of the Republican National Committee (RNC), which has over $125 million in the bank. In contrast, the Democratic National Committee (DNC) is in debt.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/other/d ... fd&ei=72

[weatheriscool]

This is really bad news for the democrats. Only 3% lead probably means republicans holding both houses of congress in nov. Even without the jerrymandering the republicans have done this probably would remain true.

If this poll is true there's a chance republicans could pick up a seat or two in the house...wtf?

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Ounch.

[firestar464]

It's important not to overestimate the implication of one or too polls in isolation. The overall trend of polls+ Ds winning elections with swings of +10 or more is more important.

[weatheriscool]

If the 3% polls are right then it'll probably be reversed from this but lets assume it is 6% nationally for democrats

[caltrek]

Sinister Plot Unearthed as Trump Lays Down Dubious Marker
By Robert Davis
July 20, 2026

Introduction:

(Raw Stroy) President Donald Trump's strange national address last week may have seemed like a recycling of his old conspiracy theories about the 2020 election, but one analyst saw connections between the speech and a bigger plot the Trump administration is undertaking.
Last week, Trump gave a nearly half-hour address where he blamed China for interfering in American elections and said he was creating a new federal initiative for "election security." While some observers heard a bunch of old talking points, Sean Wilentz, co-host of "The Court of History" podcast on the Legal AF Network, theorized during a new episode that the speech served two ends for Trump, both of which should concern every American.

"Historically, it's got to be the strangest of all presidential national addresses of all time," Wilentz said. "But at any rate, it was serving two purposes. Part of it is his obsession ... on the issue of 2020. However, I took it to be the kickoff of the fall campaign as far as the Trump team is concerned, which is to do as much as they can to delegitimize elections."

"They're laying this down as a marker for them to play fast and loose once the results come in and if they see if the Democrats are doing well in the Senate as well as in the House," he continued. "I think this is all part of building up to that as well."

The Trump administration has pursued multiple strategies to undermine confidence in the 2026 midterm elections, including promoting unsubstantiated claims of voter fraud, attacking election officials, implementing restrictive voting measures, and using federal agencies to investigate voting processes. These efforts have drawn criticism from election security experts and Democrats who view them as threats to democratic integrity.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... a06&ei=18

caltrek’s comment: One of the things I worry about is a massive deployment of ICE agents at polling places on election day coupled with a lot of arrests at those places based on racial profiling. For most of the arrests a couple of days later, ICE might acknowledge that the arrests were made “in error,” but by then the damage would have been done.

This is why the top leadership controlling ICE needs to put their loyalty to the Constitution above their loyalty to Trump. Otherwise, even court orders can be (at least) temporarily ignored until the damage to the republic has been done.