2025-2026 election thread for Senate, House, State and cities

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Democrat Adelita Grijalva Wins Special Election for Her Late Father's House Seat in Arizona
By Owen Auston-Babcock
September 23, 2025

Introduction:

(NBC) Democrat Adelita Grijalva won Tuesday's special election for the Arizona congressional seat held by her late father, NBC News projects.

Grijalva, a former Pima County supervisor and Tucson school board member, captured Arizona’s 7th Congressional District, which includes Tucson, over Republican Daniel Butierez. She will serve out the remaining 15 months of Rep. Raúl Grijalva's term after he died in March of complications during cancer treatment.

Grijalva will fill one of three vacancies in the House, narrowing Republicans' majority to 219-214 as Congress faces some key upcoming moments, including a partisan staring contest over government spending and an effort by House Democrats to force a vote on the disclosure of more files related to the late financier and convicted sex offender Jeffrey Epstein.

Grijalva will join the Congressional Progressive Caucus, she and caucus co-chair Maxwell Frost, D-Fla., said Friday an endorsement video. Grijalva’s father, who served 11 terms in Congress, was a co-chair of the caucus from 2009 to 2019 and chaired the House Natural Resources Committee for four years.

“My dad left huge shoes to fill, but I stand on my own two feet,” the younger Grijalva said in an interview with NBC News in July.

Read more here: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elect ... a231968

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Former Assemblymember Ian Calderon Enters California Governor's Race
By Austin Turner
September 23, 2025

Introduction:

(CBS) Former Assemblymember Ian Calderon, a member of a prolific family in modern California politics, is entering the crowded race to become California's next governor, he announced Tuesday.

The 39-year-old from Whittier announced his candidacy in a video posted to social media, where he touted his youthfulness as part of a "new generation of leadership" and vowed to fix California's affordability crisis.

"I'm a Democrat who believes in working families, small businesses and common sense solutions," he said. "Not the political extremes holding California back."

Elected to the assembly in 2012, representing District 57 in Los Angeles County, Calderon served as the Assembly Majority Leader from 2016 to 2020. He chose not to run for reelection in 2020, citing the desire to spend more time with his young family.

Since leaving office, he founded lobbying firm Majority Advisors and served as its CEO.

Read more here: https://www.cbsnews.com/losangeles/new ... e-2026/

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ok screw this guy, he is out of touch and a weird crypto bro

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The Justice Department Is Ramping Up Trump’s Election-Rigging Efforts
By Ari Berman
September 27, 2025

Introduction:

( Mother Jones) On Thursday evening, around the same time the Justice Department overruled career prosecutors in order to bring charges against former FBI Director James Comey, the DOJ’s Civil Rights Division sued six states—California, Michigan, Minnesota, New York, New Hampshire, and Pennsylvania—for failing to hand over their full, unredacted voter registration lists. The new legal actions signify a ramping up of the Trump administration’s voter-suppression agenda in the wake of similar lawsuits the department filed last week against Maine and Oregon.

The lawsuits may seem unrelated to Comey’s indictment, but both developments show how the DOJ has been weaponized in an unprecedented way to target Trump’s political opponents and retaliate against those who resist his extreme MAGA agenda.

The DOJ has demanded voter registration lists, which include sensitive personal information like driver’s license and Social Security numbers, from at least 27 states, and is reportedly attempting to build a national voter database, which has never been done before. This could endanger voter privacy and become a prime target for hackers, while the DOJ could abuse such a list to retaliate against voters based on party affiliation and promote Trump’s debunked claims of widespread voter fraud.

I explained the risks in a recent article*:

• In particular, the DOJ appears eager to share state voter data with the Department of Homeland Security, in order to comb through federal immigration databases to search for cases of ineligible voting or noncitizens on the voter rolls. Such databases are not designed for those purposes and will likely produce inaccurate results, especially because such fraud is also exceedingly rare. Nonetheless, this will give them an opportunity to trumpet fake claims of fraud in order to advance Trump’s lies about the voting process.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... dering/

*To read the cited “recent article”: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ter-data/

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Eric Adams Drops Out of New York City Mayoral Race
By Erin Doherty
September 28, 2025

Introduction:

• New York City Mayor Eric Adams said that "the constant media speculation" and the "campaign finance board's decision to withhold millions of dollars, have undermined my ability to raise the funds needed for a serious campaign."
• His announcement could give a boost to former Gov. Andrew Cuomo's chances in the high-profile race against the Democratic nominee Zohran Mamdani.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... ec4&ei=31

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DAIRA SMITH-RODRIGUEZ ENDS SENATE BID -- ENDORSES JANET MILLS TO DEFEAT SUSAN COLLINS

Former Civilian Air Force Leader suspends her Senate campaign to prevent a crowded Democratic primary that would aid Republicans; endorses Governor Janet Mills as the strongest candidate to defeat Susan Collins and ensure leadership worthy of Maine’s values.

Biddeford, Maine – Daira Smith-Rodriguez today announced that she will be suspending her campaign for the United States Senate, saying her decision stems from her determination to avoid a crowded Democratic primary that could strengthen Republicans and from recent reports about Democratic candidate Graham Platner’s past comments dismissing the seriousness of rape in the military — remarks she described as profoundly troubling and disqualifying.

“It has become clear that Republicans are eager to see a crowded Democratic primary that divides our voices and strengthens theirs,” said Smith-Rodriguez. “I will not allow that to happen. There are incredible leaders in this race who are talking about the real issues facing Mainers — from affordability and healthcare to housing and climate. But as a survivor of military sexual assault, I cannot, in good conscience, indicate support or remain silent if there is even a possibility that someone who questions the reality of this crisis could be elevated to the United States Senate. It is simply too great a risk to those who still need a voice to fight for them.

That is why today I am proud to endorse Governor Janet Mills for the United States Senate. She leads with courage, conviction, and an unrelenting drive to deliver results for all Mainers. Because I have seen that commitment firsthand, I feel confident stepping back from this role to focus on creating change from the ground up. The call to serve my family, my community, and the people of Maine has not gone away — it’s simply evolving. I’m incredibly grateful for every person who contributed time, money, energy, and passion to this campaign. Together, we will make sure Susan Collins is not sent back to the Senate next year.”

https://www.dairaformaine.com/

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GOP Redistricting Effort in New Hampshire is Frozen
By Lisa Kashinsky
October 24, 2025

Introduction:

(Politico) Republicans’ redistricting push is on ice in New Hampshire, in a blow to the White House’s aggressive effort to protect the GOP’s House majority in the midterms.

State Sen. Dan Innis has yanked his own bill that would have kicked off a mid-decade redraw of the state’s two congressional districts in the face of resistance from GOP Gov. Kelly Ayotte.

“The governor wasn’t that supportive of it since it’s in the middle of the normal redistricting cycle,” Innis, a Republican who recently ended his U.S. Senate campaign, told POLITICO. “Rather than create a difficult situation in my own house, the New Hampshire State House, I thought it made sense to save this for another time.”

Innis’ decision to withdraw his bill deals the White House another setback in its pressure campaign to strong-arm GOP-led states into redistricting. Indiana Senate Republican leadership said this week that they lack the votes to pass a mid-cycle redraw in the Hoosier State, though Gov. Mike Braun is still eyeing a special session to redo the state’s maps. The White House did not immediately respond to a request for comment about New Hampshire.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/ ... -cricket

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Massie Raises $782K After Break with Trump
By Emily Prescott
October 24, 2025

Introduction:

( The Kansas City Star) Rep. Thomas Massie (R-KY) has reported a record fundraising quarter after breaking with President Donald Trump and House GOP leaders on several key votes. Federal Election Commission (FEC) filings show Massie has raised about $782,000 and now holds more than $2 million in campaign funds. He also filed a discharge petition urging the House to consider releasing Department of Justice (DOJ) records regarding Jeffrey Epstein.

Massie raised nearly $800,000 in Q3, surpassing his previous record of $648,142. Massie saw the surge after pushing for the full release of files related to Epstein.

Massie has voted against several major Republican measures and has pressed the DOJ for full disclosure on the Epstein files. The petition was presented to House officials and has remained pending under procedural review.

Massie said, “I think what’s going to happen, this will be a referendum on whether the executive branch controls the legislative branch.” He added, “I am going to prevail. What they are going to find out is it will embolden members of Congress here to go with their heart, with their minds, with their constituents and not just toe the party line.”

Massie partnered with Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA) on the disclosure effort, filing a discharge petition after GOP leadership refused to schedule the bill. Khanna and allies argued the records serve public interest.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politi ... 9&ei=176

Edit: In a related news item, Senator Rand Paul of Kentucky has indicated he will support Massie in the primary: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/10/2 ... -00621018

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NJ-GOV: N.J. governor's race is a dead heat, new poll shows

Democrat Mikie Sherrill has a 50%-49% lead over Republican Jack Ciattarelli in an AtlasIntel poll released this morning.

The poll gives Ciattarelli a 54%-46% lead among independents.

Donald Trump is upside-down in New Jersey, with approvals of 47%-52%, while Gov. Phil Murphy is also underwater: 43%-53%.

In a performance evaluation, Trump is at 49%-51%, Murphy at 53%-47%, Attorney General Matt Platkin is at 59%-40%, and Lt. Governor Tahesha Way is at 61%-39%.

https://newjerseyglobe.com/governor/n-j ... oll-shows/

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Poll: Frustration with Trump Gives Democrats an Opening a Year Before the Midterms
By Ben Kamisar and Bridget Bowman
November 2, 2025

Introduction:

(NBC) Democrats have an early lead in next year’s battle for control of Congress amid an ongoing government shutdown, as more voters say President Donald Trump has not lived up to their expectations on several major issues that propelled him back to the White House in 2024, according to a new national NBC News poll.

Around two-thirds of registered voters say the Trump administration has fallen short on the economy and the cost of living, and a majority say he’s fallen short on changing business as usual in Washington. At the same time, the Democratic Party continues to suffer from low ratings from voters as it seeks to offer an alternative.

Meanwhile, protecting democracy and constitutional rights is a top issue to voters, alongside costs, as Trump continues an expansive agenda of executive actions on immigration and other key policy areas. And a majority of voters believe he’s done more to undermine the Constitution than defend it.

The president’s overall approval rating in the survey sits at 43%, a 4-point decrease since March, while 55% disapprove of his job performance.
And one year before the 2026 midterm elections, Democrats lead Republicans in the fight for Congress by 8 points, 50%-42%, the largest lead for either party on the congressional ballot in the NBC News poll since the 2018 midterms. Democrats had a negligible 1-point edge, 48%-47%, in the March survey.

Read more of the NBC article here: https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/elect ... idterms

To view NBC poll results: https://www.documentcloud.org/documents ... -release/ (see page 11 for report on congressional preference)

Edit: A CNN poll shows a 47% to 42% preference for Democrats over Republicans in the upcoming midterm congressional elections. Source: https://s3.documentcloud.org/documents/ ... arties.pdf

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"Empty Plates Will Flip This House"
By Michael Cohen
November 2, 2025

Introduction:

( Michael Cohen Substack) Let’s be brutally honest; we’re not moving the needle because Democrats have suddenly figured out how to talk to voters or craft a compelling message. We’re moving it because the Republican Party has completely lost its mind. The GOP isn’t just bad at governing anymore; they’re morally bankrupt, publicly cruel, and proudly ignorant. And for once, the American people seem to be noticing.

The latest Quinnipiac poll tells a story that should both encourage and alarm Democrats. Fifty percent of voters say they’d rather see Democrats control the House if the election were held today (versus forty-one percent supporting the Republicans). That’s not because the left is inspiring hope or offering visionary leadership. It’s because voters are disgusted by what they’re seeing from the right; a political movement so detached from basic humanity that they think hunger, poverty, and suffering are punchlines.

Take Representative Clay Higgins of Louisiana. The man looked at millions of struggling Americans about to lose access to food assistance and told them to “stop smoking crack.” You read that right. As 42 million Americans braced for their SNAP benefits to run out thanks to the government shutdown, Higgins went online to mock them; as if feeding a family on $350 a month is some kind of luxury.

Higgins’ own state has nearly a million residents relying on SNAP benefits. Eighteen percent of his constituents. Eighteen percent. These are his voters, his neighbors. But instead of empathy, he gave them contempt. Instead of understanding, he handed out stereotypes. And this is who the Republican Party now is; a party that mocks the poor while worshiping the powerful.

While millions face empty refrigerators, Donald Trump hosted a “Roaring ’20s” Halloween gala at Mar-a-Lago; a lavish fantasy of champagne towers, wagyu beef, and 1920s nostalgia for a crowd that’s never worried about a grocery bill. While the country starves, Trump feasts. The optics couldn’t be clearer if he tried. The Republican message to working Americans is simple: you’re on your own, peasants.

Read more here: https://therealmichaelcohen.substack.c ... um=email

October 22, 2025, Quinnipiac poll results: https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3938

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Polls Closed, 16 Dem HoD seats are immediately callable as uncontested Dem wins

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