Indian Subcontinent Watch Thread

[firestar464]

The protesters should demand a timetable for the elections; otherwise the military is going to sit around for at least a few years.

https://web.archive.org/web/20210329004 ... D-2016.pdf (page 5)

[Time_Traveller]

Bangladesh parliament dissolved after PM flees country

2 hours ago

Bangladesh's parliament has been dissolved, a day after prime minister Sheikh Hasina was forced from power.

Ms Hasina resigned and fled the country after weeks of student-led protests spiralled into deadly unrest.

The dissolution of parliament, a key demand of protesters, paves the way for establishing an interim government.

Bangladeshis are waiting to see what comes next, as the country's military chief is holding talks with political leaders and protest organisers.

According to local media, more than 100 people died in violent clashes across Bangladesh on Monday, the single deadliest day since mass demonstrations began.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c0499xpnp1yo

[Time_Traveller]

Sri Lanka votes in first election since protests ousted president

21 September 2024, 00:05 BST

Sri Lankans are voting for a new president in the first election since mass protests sparked by the country's worst-ever economic crisis unseated the leader in 2022.

Saturday's vote is widely regarded as a referendum on economic reforms meant to put the country on the road to recovery.

But many are still struggling to make ends meet because of tax hikes, and cuts to subsidies and welfare.

Multiple analysts predict that economic concerns will be front of mind for voters in what is shaping up to be a close race.

"The country's soaring inflation, skyrocketing cost-of-living and poverty have left the electorate desperate for solutions to stabilise prices and improve livelihoods," Soumya Bhowmick, an associate fellow at India-based think tank the Observer Research Foundation, told the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3w2qkx1xlo

[Time_Traveller]

Sri Lanka votes in first election since protests ousted president

21 September 2024, 00:05 BST

Sri Lankans are voting for a new president in the first election since mass protests sparked by the country's worst-ever economic crisis unseated the leader in 2022.

Saturday's vote is widely regarded as a referendum on economic reforms meant to put the country on the road to recovery.

But many are still struggling to make ends meet because of tax hikes, and cuts to subsidies and welfare.

Multiple analysts predict that economic concerns will be front of mind for voters in what is shaping up to be a close race.

"The country's soaring inflation, skyrocketing cost-of-living and poverty have left the electorate desperate for solutions to stabilise prices and improve livelihoods," Soumya Bhowmick, an associate fellow at India-based think tank the Observer Research Foundation, told the BBC.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/ce3w2qkx1xlo

Left-leaning leader wins Sri Lanka election in political paradigm shift

22 September 2024, 04:41 BST



Left-leaning politician Anura Kumara Dissanayake has won Sri Lanka’s presidential election after a historic second round of counting.

No candidate won more than 50% of the total votes in the first round, where Dissanayake got 42.31% while his closest rival, opposition leader Sajith Premadasa, got 32.76%.

But Dissanayake, who promised voters good governance and tough anti-corruption measures, emerged as winner after the second count, which tallied voters' second and third choice candidates.

The election on Saturday was the first to be held since mass protests unseated the country's leader, Gotabaya Rajapaksa, in 2022 after Sri Lanka suffered its worst economic crisis.

Dissanayake, 55, told Sri Lankans "this victory belongs to us all", in a message on the social media platform X.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/clyznjz3d78o

[caltrek]

Prime Minister Modi Tours U.S.
September 23, 2024

Introduction:

(Hindustan Times) Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Monday called for prioritising sustainable development, while according highest priority to human-centric approach.

“Today, I am here to bring here the voice of the one-sixth of the humanity... We have elevated 250 million people out of poverty in India and we have shown that sustainable development can be successful. We are ready to share this experience of success with Global South,” the prime minister said at ‘Summit of Future' at the United Nations.

“Success of humanity lies in our collective strength, not in the battlefield. For global peace and development, reforms in global institutions are important. Reform is the key to relevance,” he added.

“For safe and responsible use of technology, balance regulation is needed. We want such global digital governance in which sovereignty and integrity remain intact. Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) should be a bridge and not a barrier. for global good, India is ready to share its DPI. For India, One Earth One Family One Future is a commitment,” Modi said in his address.

Prime Minister Modi on Sunday addressed the Indian community at Nassau Coliseum in New York. Hailing the Indian diaspora, he said,"I have always understood the capabilities of the Indian diaspora. I understood it even when I held no official position...For me, you all have been strong brand ambassadors of India. This is why I call you 'Rashtradoot."

Read more here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-n ... 417.html

Prime Minister Narendra Modi on Sunday participated in a roundtable with the CEOs of leading American companies in New York during the second leg of his three-day official visit to the United States. The event was held at the Lotte New York Palace Hotel to enhance cooperation between India and the US in cutting-edge technologies such as AI, quantum computing and semiconductors. On his final day in the US, Modi is set to address the 'Summit of the Future' at the United Nations General Assembly in New York.

Modi, during the roundtable with the tech CEOs of US-based firms, met Google CEO Pichai and Adobe CEO Shantanu Narayen, among others. “Had a fruitful roundtable with tech CEOs in New York, discussing aspects relating to technology, innovation and more. Also highlighted the strides made by India in this field. I am glad to see immense optimism towards India,” he wrote on X.

1. On his final leg of the official three-day US visit on Monday, Modi will address the 'Summit of the Future' at the United Nations General Assembly in New York (see article cited above). The theme of the summit is ‘Multilateral Solutions for a Better Tomorrow’. A large number of world leaders are expected to participate in this summit, and Modi will hold bilateral meetings with several of them on the sidelines.

2. On Sunday, the prime minister held bilateral meetings in New York with Kuwait Crown Prince Sheikh Sabah Khaled Al-Hamad Al-Sabah Al-Sabah and his Nepal counterpart KP Sharma Oli.

3. The Nepal PM told ANI that his meeting with Modi was “very good”. This was the first meeting between the two leaders after KP Sharma Oli took oath as Nepal's PM for the third time in July this year, succeeding Pushpa Kamal Dahal 'Prachanda'.

Read more here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/india-n ... 591.html

[caltrek]

Rupee Dips to Lifetime Low
October 14, 2024

Introduction:

(Reuters via Hindustan Times) The Indian rupee dropped to an all-time low on Monday, weighed down by persistent dollar demand from foreign banks, likely for their clients.

The Indian rupee dropped to an all-time low on Monday, weighed down by persistent dollar demand from foreign banks, likely for their clients.

The rupee dipped to a lifetime low of 84.0725 to the U.S. dollar, inching past the prior low of 84.07 hit on Friday. The local's currency drop past 84 came after it spent more than two months near to that level.

Read more here: https://www.hindustantimes.com/busines ... 456.html

[caltrek]

Will Pakistan’s Imran Khan Get Out of Jail After His Wife’s Release?
by Abid Hussain
October 24, 2024

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) Islamabad, Pakistan – Hundreds of people gathered outside Bani Gala, the palatial mansion on the outskirts of Islamabad, on Thursday to welcome Bushra Bibi, the wife of former Pakistani Prime Minister Imran Khan, following her release from jail after nine months.
Bibi, arrested in January, was granted bail on Wednesday in a case concerning the illegal sale of state gifts.

She travelled from Adiala Jail in Rawalpindi in a convoy of cars, with supporters throwing flowers on her vehicle.

Bibi and Khan were initially sentenced in January to 14 years in prison after being found guilty of selling state gifts worth more than 140 million rupees ($501,000), received during Khan’s tenure as prime minister, 2018-2022, from the Toshakhana, or state treasury.

The couple was separately also convicted in a case questioning the legality of their marriage, but they were acquitted in July. Shortly after, authorities filed an additional Toshakhana case, this time involving a jewellery set gifted to Bibi by the Saudi crown prince. The National Accountability Bureau has alleged that Khan and Bibi illegally kept the set and later sold it for more than $350,000.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/10 ... -release

[caltrek]

In India and Pakistan
the World’s Worst Air Pollution is Getting Worse
by Umair Irfan
November 22, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) India and Pakistan are losing ground to a common deadly enemy. Vast clouds of dense, toxic smog have once again shrouded metropolises in South Asia. Air pollution regularly spikes in November in the subcontinent, but this year’s dirty air has still been breathtaking in its scale and severity. The gray, smoky pollution is even visible to satellites, and it’s fueling a public health crisis.

Last week, officials in the Punjab province in Pakistan imposed lockdowns on the cities of Multan, population 2.1 million, and Lahore, population 13.7 million, after reaching record-high pollution levels. “Smog is currently a national disaster,” senior Punjab provincial minister Marriyum Aurangzeb said during a press conference last week. Schools shut down, restaurants closed, construction halted, highways sat empty, and medical staff were recalled to hospitals and clinics.

Across the border in India, the 33 million residents of Delhi this week are breathing air pollution that’s 50 times higher than the safe limit outlined by the World Health Organization (WHO). The choking haze caused 15 aircraft to divert to nearby airports and caused hundreds of delays. Students and workers were told to stay home.

Despite all the disruption, air pollution continues to spike year after year after year.

Why? The dirty air arises from a confluence of human and natural factors. Construction, cooking fires, brick kilns, vehicles, and burning leftovers from crop harvests are all feeding into the toxic clouds. The Himalaya and Hindu Kush mountains to the north of lower-lying areas like Lahore and Delhi hold the smog in place. In the winter, the region experiences thermal inversions, where a layer of warm air pushes down on cool winter air, holding the pollution closer to the ground.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/climate/387135/ind ... hore- aqi

[firestar464]

Indian and Pakistani Troops Exchange Fire in Kashmir

https://thedefensepost.com/2025/04/25/i ... e-kashmir/

[caltrek]

From a slightly different but corroborating(?) perspective:

India and Pakistan Exchange Fire in Kashmir
Updated April 25, 2025

Introduction:

(The National) Troops from Pakistan and India exchanged fire overnight across the Line of Control in disputed Kashmir, officials said on Friday, after the UN urged the nuclear-armed rivals to show "maximum restraint",

Relations have plunged to their lowest level in years, with India accusing Pakistan of supporting "cross-border terrorism" after gunmen carried out the worst attack on civilians in contested Muslim-majority Kashmir for a quarter of a century.

Syed Ashfaq Gilani, a government official in Pakistan-administered Kashmir, told AFP Friday that troops exchanged fire along the Line of Control that separates the two countries.

"There was no firing on the civilian population," he added.

India's army confirmed there had been limited firing of small arms that it said had been "initiated by Pakistan", adding it had been "effectively responded to".

Read more here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/news/a ... attack/

[caltrek]

Pakistan Opens Fire Across LoC Ahead of Army Chief’s Srinagar Visit
by The Logical Indian Crew
April 25, 2025

Extract:

(The Logical Indian) The timing of the incident, just before General Upendra Dwivedi’s high-profile visit to sensitive military installations, has raised concerns about Pakistan’s intentions. General Dwivedi is set to review the security situation, meet with top commanders, and assess ongoing counter-terror operations in the wake of recent attacks. The Indian Army has heightened its alert status across the region, with increased patrolling and surveillance to prevent further escalation…

In a strongly worded statement, Pakistan’s Deputy Prime Minister Ishaq Dar referred to the attackers as “freedom fighters” and warned that any attempt to disrupt water flows would be considered an “act of war.” Meanwhile, India has briefed foreign envoys and called for international support to counter cross-border terrorism, further raising the stakes in the region.

Read more here: https://thelogicalindian.com/pakistan- ... wiftly/

[caltrek]

Pahalgam Terror Attack Live Updates: India Won’t Allow Single Drop of Water Into Pakistan
by Express Web Desk
April 25, 2025

Introduction:

(The Indian Express) Pahalgam Terror Attack Live News Updates: The government is working on a strategy to ensure that not a single drop of water flows from India into Pakistan, Jal Shakti Minister C R Paatil asserted on Friday following a high-level meeting chaired by Home Minister Amit Shah. Paatil told PTI that Prime Minister Narendra Modi has issued a slew of directives, and the meeting was held to follow up on them and Shah made several suggestions at the meeting for their effective implementation. “We will ensure that not a single drop of water flows into Pakistan from India,” he said.

Identify Pakistanis and deport them, says Amit Shah: Days after India took several diplomatic measures against Pakistan over the Pahalgam terror attack, Union Home Minister Amit Shah on Friday directed all Chief Ministers to identify Pakistani nationals residing in their states and take steps to ensure their prompt return after cancelling their visas. Meanwhile, a day after the United States updated the travel advisory for its citizens, the United Kingdom also issued a similar advisory, asking its citizens not to travel within 10 km of India and Pakistan’s border areas due to rising tensions between the two neighbours.

Homes of 2 accused razed: The homes of the two men, suspected to be among the Pahalgam attackers, were “demolished using explosives” during the night in south Kashmir. While Asif Ahmad Sheikh’s house was demolished at Mongaham in south Kashmir’s Tral, Adil Ahmad Thoker’s house at Gurre village in south Kashmir’s Bijbehara was also blown up on the night of April 24-25.

Read more here: https://indianexpress.com/article/indi ... king_hp

[caltrek]

Here is an article published in The Conversation that gives further background to the India Pakistan situation: https://theconversation.com/tensions-o ... rt-244699

[Yuli Ban]

The global stakes of an India-Pakistan nuclear war

A nuclear war between India and Pakistan could result in immediate and catastrophic loss of life. A study published in 2019 by Science Advances estimates that such a conflict could kill between 50 to 125 million people within a week, surpassing the total death toll of World War II .​

"Pakistan and India may have 400 to 500 nuclear weapons by 2025 with yields from tested 12- to 45-kt values to a few hundred kilotons. If India uses 100 strategic weapons to attack urban centres and Pakistan uses 150, fatalities could reach 50 to 125 million people, and nuclear-ignited fires could release 16 to 36 Tg of black carbon in smoke, depending on yield," the study states.

Climatic Consequences: A Nuclear Winter
Beyond the immediate devastation, a nuclear exchange would have severe climatic effects. The same study indicates that firestorms in targeted cities could inject up to 5 million tonnes of soot into the stratosphere, blocking sunlight and leading to a significant drop in global temperatures.

One thing to remember, the country likely to be the third most directly affected by an India-Pakistani nuclear war is Bangladesh, which would face extreme radioactive runoff and fallout, as well as likely extensive refugees from India that it can't possibly handle, which could grievously negatively affect a massive swath of its population
Normally I wouldn't be so worried about this, because "India and Pakistan at each other's throats after skirmish or terrorist attack" is a news story for any day ending in "y"

But several observers note that this seems to have led to worse tensions than 2019 in half the time
And in 2019... well...

India and Pakistan came close to nuclear war: Pompeo

India and Pakistan came "close" to a "nuclear conflagration" in February 2019, former US Secretary of State Mike Pompeo has said in his new memoir.

This happened after Delhi launched strikes against militants in Pakistani territory following an attack on Indian troops in Kashmir.

Pakistan had then said it had shot down two Indian military jets and captured a fighter pilot.

India and Pakistan claim all of Kashmir, but control only parts of it.

India has long accused Pakistan of backing separatist militants in the Kashmir valley - a charge Islamabad denies. The nuclear-armed neighbours have fought three wars since independence from Britain and partition in 1947. All but one were over Kashmir.

In Never Give An Inch: Fighting for the America I Love, Mr Pompeo says he does "not think the world properly knows just how close the India-Pakistan rivalry came to spilling over into a nuclear conflagration in February 2019".

Now consider
- US officials in charge are terrifyingly *less* competent and *more* committed to chaos than 2019 (yes imagine that); this is the *chief* thing keeping my eye on this mess more than anything. H1B-obsessed American companies don't want to lose India at all, but we're in a state of such blistering incompetence that if the same events as 2019 unfolded today, we'd undoubtedly either bungle it, or somehow Trump gets the USA involved in the mess directly
- US military complex in a state of confusion because of Trump and Musk's disruption
- India far more radicalized by Hindutva fascism now than even 2019, and also frazzled heavily by China's massive ascendency (also helped greatly by Trump, who literally handed China the entire Pacific region on a silver platter to the point even Australia of all countries is suffering severe loss of confidence in the USA and China's managed to forge an alliance with Vietnam— as unlikely as England and France joining forces as allies in the 1700s)
- Pakistan in a *much* worse state than in 2019 (recall the 2022 floods for starters) with a less competent government at that
- While China has no interest in a nuclear war on their borders, severe disruption of their only real geopolitical rival in the region would essentially do for them in Asia what World War 2 did for America— pure unadulterated hegemony. Indian nationalists and fascists could be riled if India emerges victorious over Pakistan (it's inevitable; while you can't "win" a nuclear war, India is simply going to emerge far more intact and together than whatever would be left of Pakistan), the sheer shock of infrastructural damage, food insecurity, and raw horrific loss of life will set India back 50 years and essentially give China carte blanche to reorganize the region as they will. I doubt they'd be as outright imperialist as the British or the Mughals, but geopolitics isn't a kind man's game

[Yuli Ban]

[Yuli Ban]

It's the Indus Valley water treaty being suspended that really gets me about this one
That's never happened before. India and Pakistan have fought three wars since it was signed, and it was never suspended at any point in time.
The fact India's done this has rattled Pakistan so deeply that there's strong rumors of mobilization underway in Pakistan (even though India can't even carry through on this at the moment)

We'll see how this develops...

[Yuli Ban]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

The Murky Relationship Between the Hindu American Foundation and an Indian Embassy
By Nevin Kallepalli
July 2, 2025

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) In early June, a gurdwara in Fremont, California, shared a potential bombshell document on X. Obtained through public records requests, the legal note implied that the Hindu American Foundation—an advocacy group for the Hindu diaspora in the United States—maintains a “fiduciary” relationship with the Indian embassy in Washington, DC.

It could have massive consequences: If HAF, one of the wealthiest and most controversial nonprofits to organize on behalf of American Hindus, is financed by the embassy, it could trigger a violation of the Foreign Agent Registration Act (FARA).

It is not illegal to operate as a “foreign agent” in the United States. But organizations must register. And with the filing comes a series of significant requirements. If HAF were to register as a foreign agent, it would be compelled to publicly disclose detailed information about any alleged dealings with the Indian government.

Ben Freeman, the director of the Democratizing Foreign Policy program at the Quincy Institute, described the registration act as somewhat “murky” when it comes to dictating what think tanks or nonprofits can and cannot do. Still, establishing a “fiduciary relationship is really key for FARA.”

On its surface, HAF looks like a typical advocacy group. Created in 2003, it purports to provide school boards, law enforcement, college campuses, and journalists with “a better understanding and inclusion of Hindu Americans.” On an ideological level, many have said HAF is to India what the Anti-Defamation League is to Israel. The foundation—increasingly influential as the South Asian population increases in the US—operates aggressively to help shape a particular consensus on the most divisive political issues in the diaspora. HAF has publicly condemned caste abolitionists in California, Sikhs rallying for self-determination, and reporters who frame India’s military and human rights abuses in Kashmir as an occupation.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... oj-adl/