Economic and jobs news thread

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https://gazette.com/news/us-world/trump ... cac24.html

Trump down to '3 or 4' candidates to replace Powell as Fed chair

Source: Yahoo! Fnance

Updated Wed, June 25, 2025 at 11:06 AM EDT

President Trump told reporters that he is actively considering replacements for Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, and that he is down to three or four candidates.

"I know within 3 or 4 people who I’m going to pick," he told reporters adding of Powell "he goes up pretty soon fortunately because I think he's terrible." Powell’s term as chair expires in May 2026.

The comments from the president during a press conference in the Netherlands came at the same time as Powell sat before Senate lawmakers about 3,800 miles away in Washington for his second day of regularly scheduled testimony before Congress.

The consideration of Powell successors comes after a period of intensifying pressure from Trump to consider rate cuts as the chairman’s guarded wait-and-see monetary policy stance continues to inflame tensions with the White House. Trump’s comments on Wednesday didn’t address the question of whether he is looking to fire Powell or announce his final pick quickly in part to undercut Powell’s authority for the remainder of his term.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/trump-do ... 41239.html

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The US economy shrank much faster in the first quarter than previously reported

Source: CNN

The US economy contracted in the beginning of the year at a much faster pace than previously reported, after new data factored in much weaker consumer spending.

Gross domestic product, the broadest measure of economic output, registered an annualized rate of -0.5% from January through March, the Commerce Department said Thursday in its third and final estimate. That’s worse than the 0.2% decline reported in the second estimate. GDP is adjusted for seasonal swings and inflation.

The latest estimate showed that consumer spending — the lifeblood of the US economy — was tepid in the beginning of the year. Spending in the first quarter grew at a rate of just 0.5%, down from 1.2% in an earlier estimate. That’s the weakest rate in more than four years....

“Thursday’s GDP is backward looking and stocks already priced in the economic weakness caused by the tariffs during their decline in early April,” Paul Stanley, chief investment officer, Granite Bay Wealth Management, wrote in commentary issued Thursday. “Now, with stocks back at record highs, the market is looking ahead and pricing in an environment where tariffs are lower and that companies will be able to adapt and navigate tariffs.”

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/06/26/economy/us-gdp-q1-final

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The private sector lost 33,000 jobs in June, badly missing expectations for a 100,000 increase, ADP says

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Jul 2 2025 8:15 AM EDT | Updated 16 Min Ago

Private sector hiring unexpectedly contracted in June, payrolls processing firm ADP said Wednesday, in a possible sign that the economy may not be as sturdy as investors believe as they bid the S&P 500 back up to record territory to end the month.

Private payrolls lost 33,000 jobs in June, the ADP report showed, the first decrease since March 2023. Economists polled by Dow Jones forecast an increase of 100,000 for the month. The May job growth figure was revised even lower to just 29,000 jobs added from 37,000.

“Though layoffs continue to be rare, a hesitancy to hire and a reluctance to replace departing workers led to job losses last month,” Nela Richardson, ADP’s chief economist, said in a press release published Wednesday morning.

To be sure, the ADP report has a spotty track record on predicting the subsequent government jobs report, which investors tend to weigh more heavily. May’s soft ADP data ended up differing significantly from the monthly jobs report figures that came later in the week.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/02/adp-job ... -2025.html

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The tariff-driven inflation that economists feared begins to emerge
https://apnews.com/article/inflation-tr ... 8e578d2091

WASHINGTON (AP) — Inflation rose last month to its highest level since February as President Donald Trump’s sweeping tariffs push up the cost of a range of goods, including furniture, clothing, and large appliances.

Consumer prices rose 2.7% in June from a year earlier, the Labor Department said Tuesday, up from an annual increase of 2.4% in May. On a monthly basis, prices climbed 0.3% from May to June, after rising just 0.1% the previous month.

Worsening inflation poses a political challenge for Trump, who promised during last year’s presidential campaign to immediately lower costs only to engage in a whipsawed frenzy of tariffs that have left businesses and consumers worried. Trump has declared that the U.S. effectively has no more inflation as he has attempted to pressure Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell into cutting short-term interest rates.

Yet the bump in inflation last month makes it more likely that the central bank will keep rates unchanged at the central bank’s next meeting in two weeks. Powell has said that he wants to see how the economy reacts to Trump’s duties before reducing borrowing costs.

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U.S. economy grew at a 3% rate in Q2, a better-than-expected pace even as Trump's tariffs hit

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Jul 30 2025 8:30 AM EDT Updated 13 Min Ago

The U.S. economy grew at a much better than expected pace in the second quarter, powered by a turnaround in the trade balance and renewed consumer strength, the Commerce Department reported Wednesday.

Gross domestic product, a sum of goods and services activity across the sprawling U.S. economy, jumped 3% for the April-through-June period, according to figures adjusted for seasonality and inflation.

That topped the Dow Jones estimate for 2.3% and helped reverse a decline of 0.5% for the first quarter that came largely due to a huge drop in imports, which subtract from the total, as well as a weak consumer spending amid tariff concerns.

The period reported Wednesday includes President Donald Trump’s April 2 “liberation day” tariff announcement. Imports had jumped in the first quarters as companies sought to get ahead of the announcement.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/07/30/gdp-q2-2025-.html

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U.S. added just 73,000 jobs in July and numbers for prior months were revised much lower

Last edited Fri Aug 1, 2025, 09:08 AM

Published Fri, Aug 1 2025 8:30 AM EDT Updated 4 Min Ago

Nonfarm payroll growth was slower than expected in July and the unemployment rate ticked higher, raising potential trouble signs for the U.S. labor market.

Job growth totaled 73,000 for the month, above the June total of 14,000 but below even the meager Dow Jones estimate for a gain of 100,000. June and May totals were revised sharply lower, down by a combined 258,000 from previously announced levels.

At the same time, the unemployment rate rose to 4.2%, in line with the forecast.

The June total came down from the previously stated 147,000, while the May count fell to just 19,000, revised down by 125,000.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/08/01/jobs-re ... -2025.html

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Details and commentary on the downward revision in job creation estimates: https://www.commondreams.org/news/july- ... bs-report

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Donald Trump Fires Person Behind Jobs Numbers After They're Revised Down
By Gabe Whisnant
August 1, 2025

Introduction:

(Newsweek) President Donald Trump on Friday fired Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, after July's U.S. job numbers were revised down.

U.S. employers added 73,000 jobs in July, far lower than expected.

What To Know

"I was just informed that our Country's 'Jobs Numbers' are being produced by a Biden Appointee, Dr. Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of Labor Statistics, who faked the Jobs Numbers before the Election to try and boost Kamala's chances of Victory," Trump posted on Truth Social, referring to former Democratic presidential nominee Kamala Harris. "This is the same Bureau of Labor Statistics that overstated the Jobs Growth in March 2024 by approximately 818,000 and, then again, right before the 2024 Presidential Election, in August and September, by 112,000. These were Records — No one can be that wrong? We need accurate Jobs Numbers."

He added: "I have directed my Team to fire this Biden Political Appointee, IMMEDIATELY. She will be replaced with someone much more competent and qualified. Important numbers like this must be fair and accurate, they can't be manipulated for political purposes.

What People Are Saying

Trump wrote on Truth Social: "McEntarfer said there were only 73,000 Jobs added (a shock!) but, more importantly, that a major mistake was made by them, 258,000 Jobs downward, in the prior two months. Similar things happened in the first part of the year, always to the negative. The Economy is BOOMING under 'TRUMP' despite a Fed that also plays games, this time with Interest Rates, where they lowered them twice, and substantially, just before the Presidential Election, I assume in the hopes of getting 'Kamala' elected – How did that work out? Jerome 'Too Late' Powell should also be put "out to pasture." Thank you for your attention to this matter!"

Read more here: d-trump-fires-person-behind-jobs-numbe ... 8522&=ei88

caltrek response: Typical Trump reaction - ignore the message and kill the messenger.

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Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq Tank as Market Confidence Cracks Under Trump Tariffs, Weak Jobs Data
By Amalya Dubrovsky, Karen Friar and Laura Bratton
August 1, 2025

Introduction:

(Yahoo!Finance) US stocks sank on Friday after President Trump officially hit virtually every US trading partner with sweeping tariff hikes and the July jobs report showed signs of a labor market slowdown.

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (^DJI) fell more than 500 points, or about 1.2%. The S&P 500 (^GSPC) dropped roughly 1.6% to post its worst day since May. The tech-heavy Nasdaq Composite (^IXIC) sank around 2.2%. All three major averages notched weekly declines of more than 2%.

The retreat in stocks came as the July jobs report released Friday morning showed weaker-than-anticipated jobs growth, with the economy adding some 73,000 jobs, versus 104,000 expected. The prior two readings were also revised down sharply, indicating the labor market has been slowing down over the past three months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 4.2%.

Conclusion:

Also dragging on spirits was disappointment over Amazon's (AMZN) earnings released late Thursday. The performance of its AWS cloud unit failed to live up to lofty expectations set by rivals Google (GOOG, GOOGL) and Microsoft (MSFT), sending the stock tumbling.

But Apple (AAPL) shares declined despite results that beat expectations, boosted by surprisingly strong iPhone sales.

Read more here: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/live/s ... HkG1dDQv0

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Trump’s Former Jobs Data Chief Says ‘There’s No Way’ President’s Claim About ‘Faked’ Numbers Is True
By Michael Luciano
August 3, 2025

Introduction:

(Mediaite) A former commissioner of the Bureau of Labor Statistics appointed by President Donald Trump said Trump’s accusations against the agency are false.

Trump fired Bureau of Labor Statistics Commissioner Erika McEntarfer on Friday after the agency said the economy added just 73,000 jobs in July. The BLS also released downward revisions of jobs data from May and June, showing that the economy added 258,000 fewer jobs than initially reported. Citing no evidence, the president claimed the numbers were inaccurate and accused McEntarfer of having “faked the Jobs Numbers” to hurt him.

The BLS commissioner is appointed by the president and serves a four-year term. McEntarfer was appointed by former President Joe Biden in January 2024 and succeeded former commissioner William Beach, who appeared on CNN’s State of the Union on Sunday.

“The president said that the BLS commissioner rigged these numbers,” Kasie Hunt noted to Beach. “What do you think?”
Beach explained:

• There’s no way for that to happen. The commissioner doesn’t do anything to collect the numbers. The commissioner doesn’t see the numbers until Wednesday before they’re published. By the time the commissioner sees the numbers, they’re all prepared. They’re locked into the computer system. The only thing the commissioner does on Wednesday is to kind of do the edits on the text.

Read more here: https://www.mediaite.com/media/tv/trum ... s-true/

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‘Petulant Child!’ Chris Christie Buries Trump for Axing Labor Data Chief After Bad Jobs Report
By Joe DePaolo
August 3, 2025

Introduction:

(Mediaite) Chris Christie trashed President Donald Trump for firing Dr. Erika McEntarfer — former head of the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) — after a subpar jobs report.

During a roundtable segment on ABC’s This Week Sunday, the former New Jersey governor ripped Trump for shooting the messenger.

“This is … something that I’ve been talking about since 2018,” Christie said. “When he gets news he doesn’t like, he needs someone to blame because he won’t take the responsibility himself. And this is the action of a petulant child! Like, you give me bad news, I fire the messenger.”

Christie argued the data is viewed by too many people for anyone to alter it.

“It seems to me, from everything I learned over my eight years as governor, that it would be almost impossible for anyone to try to rig these numbers because so many people are involved in putting them together,” Christie said. “And in the end, when it comes to the Director of the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the woman who was fired, when that happens, all she’s doing is being a conduit of the information.She can’t go back in … and start line-iteming it around. So, it’s irresponsible from a position of facts, but it also shows you the way he manages.”

Read more here: https://www.mediaite.com/media/news/pe ... report/


caltrek’s comment: Unfortunately, Christie was crushed in the 2024 primaries by MAGA supporters. Meaning nobody is listening to him within the Republican camp.