Economic and jobs news thread

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Americans' Economic, Financial Expectations Sink in April

https://news.gallup.com/poll/659630/ame ... april.aspx

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Trump says tariff on China will 'come down substantially' from 145 percent

Source: The Hill

04/22/25 6:15 PM ET

President Trump said Tuesday that the hefty tariff rate on China will significantly be reduced after he negotiates with Chinese President Xi Jinping, expressing optimism about a trade deal.

“145 percent is very high. It won’t be that high, it’s not going to be that high … it won’t be anywhere near that high,” Trump told reporters in the Oval Office. “It will come down substantially, but it won’t be zero.”

The overall tariff level imposed on China is 145 percent, which remained in place after Trump delayed the “reciprocal” tariffs on other trading partners for 90 days and reduced them to 10 percent. “We’re going to be very nice. They’re going to be very nice, and we’ll see what happens. But ultimately, they have to make a deal because otherwise they’re not going to be able to deal in the United States,” Trump said, referring to China.

He cited his relationship with Xi as his reason for being optimistic about a deal. The White House said earlier Tuesday that it was “setting the stage for a deal with China,” seeking to reassure nervous financial markets and investors that progress with Beijing could be imminent.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/administra ... ina-trade/

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Trump Warned by Walmart, Target, and Home Depot CEOs That Disastrous Tariff Policy Will Lead to 'Empty Shelves'

Source: MEDIAite

Apr 23rd, 2025, 9:13 am

President Donald Trump “got a scare” from CEOs of the nation’s largest big box retailers that their shelves could soon be empty as a result of his draconian tariff policy announced on April 2, according to a report from Axios. As a result, the White House appears to be pivoting to a much softer position on trade.

Markets rallied on Tuesday as investors learned that the Trump administration was pivoting to a softer position on the controversial tariff policy, which cratered 401ks and led to talk of an inevitable recession. At the root of this news were comments made by Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent in a private speech to JP Morgan, during which he admitted an ongoing trade war with China was not sustainable.

“I do say China is going to be a slog in terms of the negotiations,” Bessent said, according to a transcript obtained by The Associated Press. “Neither side thinks the status quo is sustainable.”

But CEOs of Walmart, Target, and Home Depot privately warned Trump in an Oval Office meeting that supply changes will be disrupted, prices will increase, and shelves of their stores will be empty, according to sources reported by Axios.

Read more: https://www.mediaite.com/news/trump-war ... y-shelves/

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Businesses are already trying to pass tariff costs onto customers, Fed report says

Source: NBC News/CNBC

April 23, 2025, 4:03 PM EDT / Source: CNBC

Businesses dealing with the early stages of President Donald Trump’s tariffs are looking for ways to pass increasing costs onto consumers, according to a Federal Reserve report Wednesday.

As Trump ordered against-the-board levies on U.S. imports and higher duties on Chinese products, the Fed’s Beige Book indicated how they plan to proceed. Companies reported getting notices from suppliers about rising costs, and they looked to find ways not to absorb the increases while noting uncertainty over the ability to pass them along to customers.

“Most Districts noted that firms expected elevated input cost growth resulting from tariffs,” the report said. “Many firms have already received notices from suppliers that costs would be increasing.”

Broadly speaking, the report, which comes out about every seven weeks, characterized economic growth as “little changed” from the March 5 report, though it noted that “uncertainty around international trade policy was pervasive across” the Fed’s 12 districts.

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/busine ... rcna202667

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U.S. economy shrank 0.3% in the first quarter as Trump policy uncertainty weighed on businesses

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Apr 30 2025 8:30 AM EDT Updated 2 Min Ago

The U.S. economy contracted in the first three months of 2025 on an import surge at the start of President Donald Trump’s second term in office as he wages a potentially costly trade war.

Gross domestic product, a sum of all the goods and services produced from January through March, fell at a 0.3% annualized pace, according to a Commerce Department report Wednesday adjusted for seasonal factors and inflation. This was the first quarter of negative growth since Q1 of 2022.

Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for a gain of 0.4% after GDP rose by 2.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024. However, over the past day or so some Wall Street economists changed their outlook to negative growth, largely because of an unexpected rise in imports as companies and consumers sought to get ahead of the Trump tariffs implemented in early April.

Indeed, imports soared 41.3% for the quarter, driven by a 50.9% increase in goods. Imports subtract from GDP, so the contraction in growth may not be viewed as negatively given the potential for the trend to reverse in subsequent quarters. Imports took more than 5 percentage points off the headline reading. Exports rose 1.8%.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/04/30/gdp-q1-2025-.html

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U.S. payroll growth totals 177,000 in April, topping expectations

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/05/02/jobs-re ... -2025.html

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Inflation fears jump to 7.3% as May consumer sentiment drops further: UMich

The preliminary reading for consumer sentiment in May falls to 50.8 from 52.2 the month prior, as reported by the University of Michigan, below original estimates of 53.4. The print also illustrated inflation expectations to have shot up to 7.3%.

https://finance.yahoo.com/video/inflati ... bHu4sCzmgM

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U.S. payrolls increased 139,000 in May, more than expected; unemployment at 4.2%

Source: CNBC

Published Fri, Jun 6 2025 8:30 AM EDT Updated 3 Min Ago

Hiring decreased just slightly in May even as consumers and companies braced against tariffs and a potentially slowing economy, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday.

Nonfarm payrolls rose 139,000 for the month, above the muted Dow Jones estimate for 125,000 and the downwardly revised 147,000 that the U.S. economy added in April.



The unemployment rate held steady at 4.2%.

Worker pay grew more than expected, with average hourly earnings up 0.4% during the month and 3.9% from a year ago, compared to respective forecasts for 0.3% and 3.7%.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/06/jobs-re ... -2025.html

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U.S. inflation rises 0.1% in May from prior month, less than expected

Source: CNBC

Published Wed, Jun 11 2025 8:32 AM EDT | Updated 3 Min Ago

Consumer prices rose less than expected in May as President Donald Trump's tariffs had yet to show significant impact on inflation, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Wednesday.

The consumer price index, a broad-based measure of goods and services across the sprawling U.S. economy, increased 0.1% for the month, putting the annual inflation rate at 2.4%. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones had been looking for respective readings of 0.2% and 2.4%.



Excluding food and energy, core CPI came in respectively at 0.1% and 2.8%, compared to forecasts for 0.3% and 2.9%. Federal Reserve officials consider core a better measure of long-term trends, with several expressing concerns recently over the impact that tariffs would have on inflation.

The all-items annual rate marked a 0.1 percentage point step up from April while core was the same.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/11/cpi-inf ... -2025.html

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Retail sales fell 0.9% in May, worse than expected as consumers pulled back

Source: CNBC

Published Tue, Jun 17 2025 8:33 AM EDT Updated 5 Min Ago

Consumers spending pulled back sharply in May, weighed by declining gas sales and a looming unease over where the economy is headed, the Commerce Department reported Tuesday.

Retail sales declined 0.9%, even more than the 0.6% drop expected from the Dow Jones consensus, according to numbers adjusted for seasonality but not inflation. The decline followed a 0.1% loss in April and came at a time of unease over tariffs and geopolitical tensions. Excluding autos, sales fell 0.3%, also worse than the estimate for a gain of 0.1%.

However, excluding a series of items such as auto dealers, building materials suppliers, gas stations and others, sales increased 0.4%. That reading, known as the control group, is what the department uses when calculating gross domestic product.

Building materials and garden stores saw sales fall 2.7%, while sliding energy prices pushed gasoline station receipts down 2%. Motor vehicles and parts retailers were off 3.5%, while bars and restaurants saw sales declined 0.9%. On the plus side, miscellaneous retailers gained 2.9% while online sales rose 0.9% and furniture stores increased sales by 1.2%.

Read more: https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/17/retail- ... 2025-.html

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US unemployment claims dipped to 245,000 last week, hovering at historically low levels

Source: AP

By PAUL WISEMAN
Updated 8:06 AM CDT, June 18, 2025

WASHINGTON (AP) — The number of Americans applying for unemployment benefits dipped to 245,000 last week, hovering at historically low levels, the Labor Department said Wednesday.

U.S. jobless claims ticked down from 250,000 the week before. Economists had expected last week’s claims to match that at 250,000.

The four-week average of claims, which smooths out week-to-week volatility, rose to 245,500, the highest since August 2023.

The number of Americans collecting unemployment benefits the week of June 7 slid to 1.95 million.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/jobs-unemplo ... e6ebdf33b5

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[firestar464]

More on that by CNBC:

https://www.cnbc.com/2025/06/11/us-budg ... r-ago.html