Global Trade & Retail Crisis Watch

[weatheriscool]

If we have another 2008 Donald Trump will win reelection. Hover and mcCain where both defeated with this. Jimmy carter was defeated also by inflation and a shitty economy. It can NOT be over stated that Harris may be fucked if this continued.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

WE better pray to god this doesn't happen in America this week or we'll be reelecting a felon as president on November 5th!

[weatheriscool]

This reminds me of September 2008!

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[weatheriscool]

Trump tells US farmers to 'have fun' as he plots even bigger trade wars

Source: Raw Story

March 3, 2025 1:48PM ET

President Donald Trump on Monday vowed that American farmers would prosper greatly from his trade wars, despite evidence from his first term that such trade wars significantly hurt farmers' bottom lines.

Writing on his Truth Social page, Trump wrote that "the Great Farmers of the United States" should "get ready to start making a lot of agricultural product to be sold INSIDE of the United States" because "tariffs will go on external product on April 2nd." "Have fun!" the president added.

It is not clear how much fun farmers will have given that agricultural exports from American farms account for roughly $180 billion in revenue every year, which means that American farms could lose significant overseas business once retaliatory tariffs kick in.

During his first term in office, Trump had to pay out billions of dollars to American farmers to help them make up for income lost from trade wars that he waged, and those trade wars were piddling compared to the 25 percent universal tariffs that he has planned for all goods entering from Canada and Mexico.

Read more: https://www.rawstory.com/trump-tariffs-2671254586/

[weatheriscool]

Automakers warn that Trump tariffs will hike vehicle prices as much as 25%

Source: Reuters

A trade group representing nearly all major automakers warned on Tuesday that new 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico imposed by U.S. President Donald Trump will lead to drastic price hikes.

"All automakers will be impacted by these tariffs on Canada and Mexico," said John Bozzella, who heads the Alliance for Automotive Innovation that represents all major automakers in the U.S. except Tesla. Members include General Motors (GM.N), Ford (F.N), Toyota (7203.T), Volkswagen (VOWG_p.DE), Hyundai (005380.KS), and Stellantis (STLAM.MI).

"Most anticipate the price of some vehicle models will increase by as much as 25% and the negative impact on vehicle price and vehicle availability will be felt almost immediately."

-snip-

"You just can't relocate automotive production and the supply chain overnight. That's the challenge and the dilemma: auto tariffs in North America could end up increasing costs on consumers before jobs come back to the country," Bozzella added.

-snip-

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/autos- ... 025-03-04/

[weatheriscool]

China slaps extra tariffs of up to 15% on imports of major US farm exports and adds trade limits

Source: ap




Updated 9:29 AM CST, March 4, 2025

BEIJING (AP) — China responded to new U.S. tariffs by announcing Tuesday it will impose additional tariffs of up to 15% on imports of key U.S. farm products, including chicken, pork, soy and beef, and expanded controls on doing business with key U.S. companies.

The tariffs announced by the Commerce Ministry will take effect from March 10, though goods already in transit will be exempt until April 12. They follow U.S. President Donald Trump’s order to raise tariffs on imports of Chinese products to 20% across the board. A range of Chinese goods were already subject to 10-25% tariffs levied by Trump during his first term.

The newer tariffs took effect on Tuesday, along with 25% tariffs on imports from Canada and Mexico.

China’s is a major importer of American farm products. Purchases dipped after Trump launched a trade war during his first term and then recovered.........................................

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/china-us-tar ... ce=Twitter

[caltrek]

^^^I don't know how much further evidence will be needed before a majority of U.S. voters finally conclude that Democrats understand how to form and implement economic policy better than Republicans

[weatheriscool]

Trump threatens 200% tariff on E.U. booze over tax on U.S. whiskey

Source: NBC

President Donald Trump threatened on Thursday to impose 200% tariffs on alcohol from the European Union in response to the region's retaliatory tariffs on the U.S., further escalating tensions between two longtime trading partners.

In a post on his Truth Social platform, the president claimed that the E.U. was "formed for the sole purpose of taking advantage of the United States" while calling it "one of the most hostile and abusive taxing and tariffing authorities in the World." Trump claimed the protectionist move "would be great for the Wine and Champagne businesses in the U.S."

Read more: https://www.nbcnews.com/business/econom ... rcna196192

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

China is turning up pressure on Walmart. That could mean higher prices for US customers

Source: CNN Business

Published 5:00 AM EDT, Mon March 24, 2025

New York CNN — Walmart thought it could use its immense power as America’s biggest retailer to make Chinese suppliers eat the cost of President Donald Trump’s tariffs. But Walmart got a response it’s not accustomed to hearing: No.

Trump has slapped 20% tariffs — or taxes on imported goods — on all products coming from China. That’s put the squeeze on retailers like Walmart, which imports a lot of merchandise from China and sells those goods at the lowest price possible to American consumers. Walmart, in turn, has tried to pressure its Chinese suppliers to lower prices. But the Chinese government is having none of it.

The strong reaction from the Chinese government reveals how American companies are caught in the middle of an escalating trade war between the United States and China. While customers in the United States want low prices, that could be hard for Walmart to achieve if the Chinese government is stepping in, trade experts say. And if a company even as strong as Walmart struggles to hold down prices, it means that much smaller companies are going to be hurting, too.

Chinese officials said this month that they requested local Walmart executives speak to them following a report that the company had asked some Chinese suppliers, including kitchenware and clothing suppliers, to lower prices by as much as 10% for each round of US tariffs. “Our relevant departments have reached out to Walmart to further understand the situation, and the company has provided an explanation,” He Yongqian, a spokesperson for the Commerce Ministry, told a press briefing earlier this month, without providing further detail.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/24/business ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

Recession odds are rising as Trump's trade war escalates, Goldman Sachs says

Source: CNN Business

Updated 11:44 AM EDT, Mon March 31, 2025

CNN — The US economy faces a growing risk of a recession as surging tariffs threaten to stunt growth, reignite inflation and lift unemployment, according to Goldman Sachs. The Wall Street bank warned clients Sunday night that it now sees a 35% chance of a recession in the next 12 months, up from 20% previously. Goldman Sachs also increased its inflation estimate, slashed its 2025 GDP forecast to just 1% and bumped up its year-end unemployment rate outlook by 0.3 percentage points to 4.5%.

While Goldman Sachs still expects the US economy to avoid a downturn, other forecasters think it’s more of a 50/50 call. This is Goldman’s highest recession probability since the regional banking crisis two years ago. The catalyst now is the shock from President Donald Trump’s trade war, which is set to intensify this week.

Goldman Sachs blamed the “sharp recent deterioration in household and business confidence, and statements from White House officials indicating greater willingness to tolerate near-term economic weakness in pursuit of these policies,” the bank’s economists wrote in the report.

Consumer confidence has plunged in recent months. The University of Michigan’s consumer sentiment survey, released Friday, showed the highest percentage of Americans expecting unemployment to rise since the Great Recession as inflation expectations hit 32-year highs.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2025/03/31/business ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

Global stock markets fall as new Trump tariffs loom

Source: The Guardian

Stock markets across the world fell heavily on Monday after Donald Trump suggested that new tariffs he is expected to announce this week would hit “all countries”.

Shares fell across Asia-Pacific markets and in Europe after the US president crushed hopes that “reciprocal tariffs” expected on Wednesday would only target countries that have the largest trade imbalances with the US.

[snip]

On Monday, the threat of a deepening trade war spooked investors. In Toyko, Japan’s Nikkei index lost 4% and South Korea’s Kospi fell 3%.

The wave of selling swept into European markets as well – the UK’s FTSE 100 fell 1.3% to a two-week low, and Germany’s DAX and France’s CAC both lost 2%.

Read more: https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ck-markets

[caltrek]

This is a news release so length limitations due to copyright considerations do not apply.

Global Cost of 2025 Tariff War Could Reach $1.4 Trillion
April 1, 2025

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) An analysis by Aston University researchers is the first to estimate the economic fallout from six US trade tariff scenarios and their impact on trade flows, prices, production and welfare.

It underlines the precarity of the current moment for the UK and other world economies, and calls on swift, coordinated action from UK policymakers to mitigate risks and seize opportunities in an increasingly disrupted trade landscape.

US President Donald Trump’s tariffs in early 2025 have triggered a wave of reactions and retaliation. US imports from Mexico and Canada are subject to 25% tariffs, imported steel and aluminium tariffs are in place worldwide, tariffs on China have risen to 20%, car import tariffs are due to be imposed and countermeasures are rolling out across Europe, Asia and the Americas.

In their report, Tariffs and Triumph: The UK’s Edge in a Fractured World, Professor Jun Du and Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo, from Aston Business School’s Centre for Business Prosperity, model the potential global economic costs of US tariffs and outline a series of strategic responses for the UK.
Using core economic principles and a structured gravity approach – an economic framework that studies and quantifies the effects of various determinants of international trade – their report analyses 2023 bilateral export data and gross domestic product (GDP) for 132 countries. The report models welfare changes as measured by changes in real (net of inflation) income per capita.

Across the six potential scenarios, their key findings are:*

1. US initial tariffs: US prices rise 2.7% and real GPD per capita declines 0.9%. Welfare declines in Canada by 3.2% and Mexico by 5%.
2. Retaliation by Canada, Mexico and China: US loss deepens to 1.1%, welfare declines in Canada by 5.1% and Mexico by 7.1%.
3. US imposes 25% tariffs on EU goods: Sharp transatlantic trade contraction, EU production disruptions, US welfare declines 1.5%.
4. EU retaliates with 25% tariff on US goods: Prices rise across US and EU, mutual welfare losses and intensified negative outcomes for the US. UK experiences modest trade diversion benefits.
5. US global tariff: Severe global trade contraction and substantial price hikes substantially affect North American welfare and UK trade volumes.
6. Full global retaliation with reciprocal tariffs: Extensive global disruption and reduced trade flows, severe US welfare losses, $1.4 trillion global welfare loss projected.

Additional extract:

Dr Oleksandr Shepotylo says:

“Although we predict significant costs for the UK, there are also opportunities for leaders to employ rapid measures to mitigate against the risk of a full-scale trade war and enhance the UK’s position during this challenging time. We hope that our report will be read and used by those with decision-making powers to develop a strategy to move forward in uncertain times.”

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1079014

[weatheriscool]

Trump announces 10 percent tariffs on all imports, additional taxes for some 60 countries

Source: Washington Post

Updated April 2, 2025 at 4:44 p.m. EDT

President Donald Trump said Wednesday that he will impose a new 10 percent tariff on all imported goods along with an additional punitive import tax tailored for each of about 60 countries that his advisers say maintain the most unfair barriers against U.S. products.

The president’s long-awaited tariff plan is designed to spur a renaissance in domestic manufacturing and to fill government coffers with tax revenue, even as many economists warn that he is steering the U.S. economy toward slower growth and higher prices. “In the face of unrelenting economic warfare, the United States can no longer continue with a policy of unilateral economic surrender,” Trump said during a Rose Garden ceremony before an audience of guests, reporters and members of his Cabinet.

The president’s latest trade initiative represents a breathtaking political gamble. After returning to the White House on a wave of public anger over inflation, Trump is now asking voters to put up with a renewed period of rising prices in return for the distant promise of rebuilding domestic manufacturing.

Already, economists are warning that Trump’s tax increase on imported goods will mean sticker shock on some of Americans’ most important purchases, including groceries, cars and homes.

Read more: https://www.washingtonpost.com/business ... day-trade/

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[wjfox]