China could mount full scale invasion of Taiwan

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

Taiwan reports 'significant rise' in suspected Chinese espionage

January 13, 2025 3:48 AM GMT
Updated 12 hours ago

TAIPEI, Jan 13 (Reuters) - Taiwanese charged with suspicion of spying on behalf of China rose by a third to 64 people last year, the island's National Security Bureau said, adding most were current or retired soldiers.

China has stepped up political and military pressure in recent years to back its claim that democratically governed Taiwan is its own territory. This has included daily military drills, balloons near the island and an espionage campaign.

The increase in the number of Taiwanese charged with attempted espionage for China represented a "significant rise" from 48 and 10 people in 2023 and 2022, respectively, according to a report by the National Security Bureau on Sunday.

The report did not provide an explanation for the increase in cases.

"The Chinese Communist Party continues to use diverse channels and means to infiltrate all walks of life in order to absorb citizens to help them develop networks or gather sensitive government information," the report said.

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-paci ... 025-01-13/

[wjfox]

Hmm...

Looks like China using Russia to test the waters (excuse the pun).

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Map Shows Russian Ship Loitering Above Undersea Cables in Pacific

Published Jan 14, 2025 at 9:27 AM EST

ARussian cargo vessel loitered above undersea communication cables in the Pacific for weeks, a map shows, as concerns grow over potential Russian sabotage.

The Belize-flagged Russian cargo vessel, Vasily Shukshin, left Russia's Vostochnyy port on December 8, stopped for a short period of time in South Korea, before it loitered off Taiwan's coast on December 19, Ray Powell, director of Stanford University-affiliated maritime analyst group SeaLight, said on X (formerly Twitter), on Tuesday morning.

[...]

Ray Powell, director of Stanford University-affiliated maritime analyst group SeaLight, wrote on X: "IT'S LEAVING! But why was it off #Taiwan's coast in the first place? One day after I reported its suspicious activity off the SW coast of Taiwan...the mystery ship VASILIY SHUKSHIN has decided to depart—not south to Vietnam as it previously self-reported, but straight back north to its home port of Vostochnyy, #Russia.

"The Taiwan Coast Guard told local media that the ship did not damage the nearby submarine cables and that it was monitoring its actions. Now, after being called out, the ship has decided to go back to Russia.

"So to review, a #Belize-flagged, #HongKong-registered cargo ship from Russia—which presumably exists to move goods from one port to another—sailed 3,000 km to loiter off SW Taiwan for 3.5 weeks—without seeking to enter any Taiwan port & for no apparent reason—and is now returning to Russia.

https://www.newsweek.com/map-russian-sh ... es-2014606

[wjfox]

Thought for the day: if an invasion does happen, and Taiwan knows it will lose, it could sabotage its own chipmaking facilities before the final takeover. Basically a scorched-earth strategy to deny China access to its tech.

Imagine how devastating that could be for the world, given that Taiwan produces 90% of the world's most advanced semiconductors.

[caltrek]

Our Best Look Yet At China’s New ‘Invasion Barges’
by Thomas Newdick
March 13, 2025

Introduction:

(The War Zone) New imagery has appeared of one of China’s new ‘invasion barges,’ which involves a temporary pier that can be connected to other vessels via a barge, or series of barges, with jack-up supports for more stability. The development of jack-up barges is widely seen as part of preparations for a possible invasion of Taiwan by the People’s Republic of China. At the same time, they also reflect the growing use of ostensibly non-military maritime assets to support amphibious operations by the Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN).

Additional Extract:

“An over-the-shore capability like the floating causeway will be a critical capability in a Taiwan invasion, giving the PLA the capability to bypass damaged or sabotaged ports and harbors with an independent, relocatable off-shore loading and unloading capability,” a report from the independent China Maritime Studies Institute published last year explains. “At least through 2030, the PLA’s reserve civilian merchant fleet is probably unable to provide significant amphibious landing capabilities or the maritime logistics in austere or challenging environments necessary to support a large-scale, cross-strait invasion of Taiwan. That said, if current trends in training and exercises continue, the PLA may be able to effectively leverage civil maritime shipping on a large enough scale to support a major amphibious operation by the mid-2030s.”

View barge photos and read more here: https://www.twz.com/sea/our-best-look- ... -barges

[wjfox]

China launches surprise military drills around Taiwan

Tue 1 Apr 2025

China has launched large-scale military drills around Taiwan, accusing its leaders of being “separatists” and “parasites” who were pushing the democratically run island into war.

The drills, accompanied by a propaganda campaign, were launched without warning on Tuesday morning. China’s People’s Liberation Army (PLA) said they were a “stern warning” to Taiwan’s democratically elected government over what Beijing claims is separatist activity.

Forces from the PLA Navy, Army and Rocket Force were approaching Taiwan from “multiple directions”, said China’s Eastern Theatre Command, which manages military operations in the region, on its official WeChat social media account.

It said the drills would focus on “combat readiness patrols at sea and in the air, seizing comprehensive control, striking maritime and land targets and imposing blockade controls on key areas and routes”.

The Command later said China’s Coast Guard was also involved, conducting what it called “law-enforcement patrols” close to Taiwan’s main island. A key element of China’s military advancement has been the integration of non-military arms, including the Coast Guard, and its maritime militia fleet of fishing boats, and the conversion or creation of civilian ships for military transport.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2025/ ... und-taiwan

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Chinese invasion of Taiwan 'imminent,' warns US

Source: MSN

A Chinese invasion of Taiwan “could be imminent” Pete Hegseth, the US defence secretary, has warned, as he claimed Beijing was “credibly preparing” to use military force to upend the “balance of power in the Indo-Pacific”.

“The threat China poses is real and it could be imminent,” Mr Hegseth said at the Shangri-La Dialogue, a security conference attended by defence officials from around the world.

Mr Hegseth warned the Chinese forces were building the capabilities to invade Taiwan and “rehearsing for the real deal”.

Beijing has ramped up military pressure on Taiwan and held multiple large-scale exercises around the island, often described as preparations for a blockade or invasion.

The US was “reorienting toward deterring aggression by communist China”, Hegseth said, calling on US allies and partners in Asia to swiftly upgrade their defences in the face of mounting threats.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/ch ... 3#comments

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

^^^This looks like it is old news dating back to December of 2024 made to sound as if it is a more recent development.

One source: https://edition.cnn.com/2024/12/10/chin ... ndex.html

[firestar464]

Even that source states that they just reserved the airspace; in any case they didn't deploy for an imminent invasion

[wjfox]

https://x.com/Recon_surv/status/1951286178570760652

Can you please verify these kind of stories before posting them here? You've been warned multiple times about this. It takes 30 seconds to do a simple fact-check on Google News or elsewhere. Stop posting any random tweet you find unless it's corroborated by a reliable source(s).

[firestar464]

Foreign Affairs- Taiwan's Democracy is in Trouble

https://archive.ph/I73Cz

People tend to be chill in Taiwan for the most part. It's politicians that are fucking up

[caltrek]

Could Drones Turn the Taiwan Strait Into a “Hellscape” for a Chinese Invasion Force?
By Michael Hirsh
August 27, 2025

Extract:

(The Conversation) The Navy, meanwhile, is working on long-term plans to use swarms of drones to turn the Taiwan Strait into an “unmanned hellscape,” as Adm. Samuel Paparo, head of the military’s Indo-Pacific command, described it in an interview last year. The idea is to use massive numbers of drones in the air, on land and underwater — including such systems as High-Altitude Long Endurance (HALE) UAVs and attack Unmanned Surface Vessels (USVs), as well as Unmanned Underwater Vehicles (UUV) — to slow down a Chinese invasion force and cause it maximum damage. According to Paparo, that might allow U.S. and allied forces adequate time to set up necessary logistics and more conventional forward-based forces in the Pacific…

And yet the Pentagon’s pilot Replicator program, which has been developing these drone swarms, has barely gotten off the ground. In fact, it is hardly mentioned any longer by the Trump administration, in large part because it was started under Trump’s predecessor, Joe Biden, many experts believe.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine ... 00525 058

[wjfox]

Russia is helping prepare China to attack Taiwan, documents suggest

Russia is using its battlefield experience to give Chinese airborne units the training and technical knowhow to carry out lightning-fast operations.

September 26, 2025

Russia has agreed to equip and train a Chinese airborne battalion and share its expertise in airdropping armored vehicles that analysts say could boost Beijing’s capacity to seize Taiwan, according to newly obtained documents that show the two nations’ deepening military cooperation.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/20 ... r-assault/

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

More on that by Reuters:

https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 025-11-16/

[funkervogt]

One month left!