South America Watch Thread

[firestar464]

Chaos and an abduction in Caracas as Canada recognizes Venezuelan opposition

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/venezu ... -1.7427473

[firestar464]

Not viable for Gonzalez to enter Venezuela says opposition leader Machado

https://www.reuters.com/world/americas/ ... 025-01-10/

Well crap...it doesn't seem like they thought this through

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[caltrek]

Peru Declares an Emergency and Deploys the Army as Violence Surges in the Capital
March 18, 2025

Introduction:

(AP via Time) LIMA, Peru — Peru's president declared a state of emergency in the capital Monday and ordered the deployment of soldiers to help police address a surge of violence, amid widespread outcry a day after the killing of a popular singer.

President Dina Boluarte's government published a decree saying that the state of emergency will last 30 days, and authorities will restrict some rights, including the freedom of assembly and movement. That means the police and the army would be able to detain people without a judicial order.

Peru has seen an increase of killings, violent extortion and attacks on public places in recent months. Police reported 459 killings from Jan. 1 to March 16, and 1,909 extortion reports in January alone. But outrage crested after the killing Sunday of Paul Flores, the 39-year-old lead singer of the cumbia band Armonia 10.

In Congress, opposition lawmakers requested a vote of no confidence against Interior Minister Juan José Santiváñez for what they say is a lack of a plan to fight rising violence. The vote is expected to be discussed in the Congress' plenary later this week.

Flores was shot to death early Sunday when assailants attacked the bus he and bandmates were traveling after a concert in Lima. Cumbia is a Latin music style that people dance to the rhythm of drums, maracas and other instruments.

Read more here: https://time.com/7269098/peru-state-of-emergency/

[caltrek]

Lessons from Venezuela’s Democratic Collapse: How Opposition Movements Can Defy Autocratic Leaders
by Renée LaReau
March 25, 2025

Introduction:

(Eurekalert) Until the 1990s, Venezuela was home to one of the most established democracies in Latin America. Today, however, it stands as one of the region’s most firmly entrenched authoritarian regimes.

How did this shift occur, and what can other countries learn from Venezuela’s transformation?

A new paper from political scientist Laura Gamboa at the University of Notre Dame chronicles the country’s 25-year evolution, during which Hugo Chávez and his successor, Nicolás Maduro, destroyed a system of checks and balances, ended competitive elections, terminated political rights and civil liberties, and harmed or killed scores of political opponents along the way.

“The Venezuelan case provides several lessons for countries whose democracies are just beginning to erode,” Gamboa said. “It shows that you should use all of the institutional spaces you have while you have them. Not leveraging those spaces is a mistake.”

How Hugo Chávez seized power

Venezuela’s democracy began to erode in 1999, when newly elected President Hugo Chávez convened a constitutional assembly to draft a new constitution for the country — a power grab that was carried out without the approval of the National Congress.

Read more of the Eurekalert article here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/1078167

Extract:

(The ANNALS of the American Academy of Political and Social Science - Extract) Despite having institutional arenas available, the opposition chose to resist the erosion of democracy through mostly radical extra-institutional strategies: a coup in April 2002 and an indefinite oil strike in 2003 to push Chávez to resign. These strategies cost the opposition important bureaucratic and state resources. Between 1999 and 2002, the opposition had sympathizers in the armed forces. The putsch gave Chávez the information, the reason, and the excuse he needed to purge the military. Likewise, between 1999 and 2003, high and midlevel PDVSA managers opposed the government. The strike gave Chávez a perfect excuse to fire 60 percent of them and replace them with loyalists. The move further enabled the government to use oil revenues to buy domestic and international support (Corrales and Penfold-Becerra 2011, 78).

Together, the coup and the strike, as well as an electoral boycott in 2004 and 2005, narrowed the institutional arenas available to contest the erosion of democracy. In 2004 and 2005, the opposition lost all but two governorships, 60 percent of their mayorships, and most of their seats in the AN. With a tighter hold over legislative and subnational offices, Chávez was then able to fully co-opt courts6 and oversight agencies.

Despite this setback, and perhaps because of it, in 2008 (the second stage of autocratization), the opposition created an electoral coalition—Mesa de Unidad Democrática (MUD)—that was able to win back some of the elected offices the anti-Chavistas had lost in previous contests. In 2008, the MUD elected five governors (three more than they did in 2004), and in 2010 it won 40 percent of the seats in the AN. Unfortunately, by 2008, the regime had turned competitive authoritarian. Not only was it harder to recover these spaces than it would have been earlier, but there was less the opposition could do in them. By the time the opposition officers were sworn in, the government had used its control over state institutions to modify the rules of procedure in the AN to the detriment of minority coalitions (Asamblea Nacional 2010), reform the constitution to allow for indefinite reelections (2009), and create parallel governing institutions in opposition-controlled states and cities (Jiménez et al. 2022). In control of all the branches of power, Chávez remained in office until his death in 2013, when he was replaced by Nicolás Maduro.

Read more here: https://journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/ ... 241309709

caltrek’s comment:

[caltrek]

Latin America Three Months Into the Trumpocalypse
by Roger D. Harris and John Perry
April 21, 2025

Introduction:

(Counterpunch) Nobody is complaining anymore about Latin America and the Caribbean being neglected by the hegemon to the north. The Trump administration is contending with it on multiple fronts: prioritizing “massive deportations,” halting the “flood of drugs,” combatting “threats to US security,” and stopping other countries from “ripping us off” in trade. The over 200-year-old Monroe Doctrine is alive and on steroids.

But has Washington taken a sharp right turn, qualitatively departing from past practices, or simply intensified an already manifest imperial trajectory? And, from a south-of-the-border perspective, to what extent are the perceived problems “made in the USA”?

Externalization of problems

The view from Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC) is that the Yankees have a problem; they project their issues onto their southern neighbors. An extreme example is Barack Obama’s baseless declaration in 2015 of a “national emergency” – subsequently reaffirmed by each successive president – because of the “unusual and extraordinary threat” posed by Venezuela.

From Washington’s imperial perspective, problems are seen as coming from the south with the US as the victim when, as in the case of Venezuela’s national security, reality is inverted.

Another case in point: migration is seen as a supply-side conundrum; “they” are “invading us.” In practice, deliberate past US policy (Trump has largely ended these practices) encouraged migration from Venezuela, Nicaragua, and especially Cuba to weaken their governments.

Read more here: https://www.counterpunch.org/2025/04/2 ... alypse/

[firestar464]

The article was all good until it started glazing Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela while promoting fraud conspiracy theories in regards to Ecuador. Of course, not surprising for someone living in Nicaragua working for the "Nicaragua Solidarity Coalition."

[caltrek]

The article was all good until it started glazing Cuba, Nicaragua, and Venezuela while promoting fraud conspiracy theories in regards to Ecuador. Of course, not surprising for someone living in Nicaragua working for the "Nicaragua Solidarity Coalition."

I think that is a good observation. I think that one can reconcile the author's viewpoint with your own by realizing that extreme U.S. pressure has done much to force those countries into a more repressive mode. A counterpoint to that argument is that those regimes would have become more repressive anyway. These are the kind of muddy waters you end up with following U.S. intervention, including trade sanctions.

[firestar464]

I dunno, a good left-wing leader wouldn't feel any urge to start implementing authoritarianism- they'd just implement good policy and get reelected for being actually good at their job.

Can't really think of a "perfect" left-wing leader, but I'll just use Colombia to illustrate my point. President Gustavo Petro has many issues, but at least he hasn't attempted to seize power or anything. Thus Colombia managed to avoid sanctions or punitive action from the US (that is, until Trump came along, but he's attacking everybody).

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[caltrek]

‘The Pope is Peruvian!’ How 2 Decades in South America Shaped the Vision of Pope Leo XIV
by Matthew Casey-Pariseault
May 13, 2025

Introduction:

(The Conversation) In his first appearance as Pope Leo XIV on the balcony of St. Peter’s Basilica, the man born Robert Francis Prevost spoke for 10 minutes in Italian. Then he transitioned to Spanish and, with a big grin, gave a greeting to his “beloved diocese of Chiclayo in Peru.”

Many Peruvians were overjoyed with the election of Leo, whom they are proud to claim as a fellow citizen. “The Pope is Peruvian!” reported the live coverage on Latina Noticias, one of the main national networks. Other news outlets around Lima, where I live, shared similar headlines. Within minutes, all of Peru knew that the new pope, who was born and raised in Chicago, had served in Peru for over two decades and was nationalized as a citizen in 2015.

During his time in the South American nation, he lived alongside his parishioners through a bloody civil war, a decade-long dictatorship and an unstable post-dictatorship period that has so far led to three former presidents being handed prison sentences. Amid these challenges, Prevost became part of Peruvian society – and, eventually, a leader within it.

Prevost’s leadership roles in Chicago and Rome were essential in his formation. But as a scholar of religion in Latin America, I believe that it is his time in Peru that has best prepared him to take on the challenges of directing the global Catholic Church. In Peru, where Catholicism permeates public life, Prevost encountered deep social and political challenges in ways that bishops in many other countries may never face so directly.

Missionary during war and dictatorship

Prevost first arrived in Peru in 1985. A member of the Order of St. Augustine, the young man had been sent to its mission in Chulucanas, in the northern province of Piura.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/the-pope-i ... v-256415

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[firestar464]

would not be surprised

also the killing of the right-wing senator was a contract killing; we don't know who ordered it yet.

https://www.france24.com/en/live-news/2 ... -candidate

[firestar464]

Former Colombian President Uribe found guilty in bribery trial that threatens his legacy

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna221635

long overdue

[caltrek]

1 in 5 Bolivians Spoiled Their Ballots – a Sign of Voter Dissatisfaction as BoliviaTips to the Right
By Mollie Cohen
August 18, 2025

Introduction:

(The Conversation) For the first time since the country’s return to democracy in 1982, Bolivia’s presidential election will go to a runoff after no candidate secured the required absolute majority in the first-round vote on Aug. 17, 2025.

The choice Bolivians now face means that the country is set to elect a non-left-wing candidate for the first time in a generation. In October, they will choose between the center-right Sen. Rodrigo Paz Pereira, who led the first round with approximately 32% of the valid vote, and former right-wing interim President Jorge “Tuto” Quiroga, who had close to 27%.

As many predicted, the left lost spectacularly, with the best-performing leftist candidate, Andrónico Rodríguez, winning only around 8% of the valid vote.

In fact, the left performed so poorly that its vote count was surpassed by invalid ballots. More than 19% of all ballots were spoiled and an additional 2.5% left blank. Indeed, the invalid vote roughly quadrupled compared to presidential elections between 2006 and 2020, when only about 5% of ballots were invalid.

Invalid votes are those that have been left unmarked – “blank” votes – or mismarked – “null” or “spoiled” votes – so that a voter’s intent is unclear. They are usually counted but excluded from official electoral math. But as I document in my 2024 book, “None of the Above,” blank and spoiled votes are also one of the most widely used tools of protest in Latin American democracies. Every year, millions of voters use the tactic to express their frustration with the candidates on the ballot, while at the same time demonstrating their commitment to democracy and elections.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/1-in-5-bol ... ht-263166

[caltrek]

CODEPINK Strongly Condemns the Latest Threats and Military Provocations by the United States Government Against Venezuela
August 20, 2025

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) In recent days, the White House has authorized the deployment of three Aegis-guided missile destroyers off Venezuela’s coast, alongside an attack submarine, surveillance aircraft, and thousands of Marines stationed throughout the wider southern Caribbean. This reckless escalation, framed as a so-called “counter-narcotics” operation, dangerously militarizes the Caribbean and brings our region closer to war. This militarization violates international law and the sovereignty of nations in the region.

The U.S. government has gone even further by designating Venezuelan entities as “narco-terrorists” and doubling the bounty on President Nicolás Maduro’s head from $15 million to $50 million. This move is nothing more than an open invitation to lawlessness and violence. By criminalizing a foreign government and offering cash rewards for its leadership, Washington undermines international law and signals that regime change by force is its real objective.

The U.S. justifies these actions using the so-called “narco-terrorism” label, but its own data undermines that framing. According to U.S. government monitoring , Venezuela is not a primary transit route for cocaine heading to the United States. United Nations data similarly fail to spotlight Venezuela as a major node, instead showing regional trafficking reinforcing traditional corridors. And yet, dubious claims about the “Cartel de los Soles” and other alleged Venezuelan criminal structures are amplified through a media–intelligence echo chamber to justify escalation.

These aggressive policies seek to extend U.S. dominance in Latin America, no matter the human cost. They squander public resources that should be used for healthcare, housing, climate action, and education, not warships, bounties, and militarization.

We demand a total withdraw of all U.S. warships and military assets from the Caribbean; rescind the bounty system and end the practice of criminalizing foreign leaders as an excuse for intervention; end the failed “war on drugs” framework, which has only fueled violence and justified militarization across Latin America; and invest in peace, not provocation, by prioritizing diplomacy, dialogue, and people-to-people cooperation.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/newswire/ ... enezuela

[caltrek]

U.S. Deploys Warships to Venezuelan Coast, Raising Fears of Another 'Regime Change' War
By Stephen Prager
August 21, 2025

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) The White House's announcement Wednesday that it had deployed three warships to the coast of Venezuela has raised fears among antiwar and human rights advocates of the US becoming embroiled in another potential "regime change" quagmire.

In recent weeks, the Trump administration has accused Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro of being one of the world's largest traffickers of illegal narcotics and of leading the cocaine trafficking gang Cartel de los Soles.

In 2020, Maduro was charged with narco-terrorism and conspiracy to import cocaine into the US, with the first Trump administration promising a $15 million reward for his arrest. The Biden administration increased that bounty to $25 million before Trump, earlier this month, doubled it to $50 million.

Trump also expanded the litany of accusations against Maduro, alleging that he is the kingpin of Mexico's Sinaloa cartel, an allegation that Mexican President Claudia Sheinbaum says there is no evidence to support.

Even before Maduro's indictment, however, Trump had long sought to oust him from power. During his first term, he repeatedly suggested that the US should invade Venezuela to take Maduro out—an idea that his top aides rebuffed.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/trum ... venezuela

caltrek’s comment: Hopefully, nothing dramatic will come out of this U.S. action. Hopefully.

If something dramatic does occur, it will be Iraq all over again. An attack on an oil rich nation, based on faulty intelligence, in which American lives are put at risk, and countless numbers of residents in the invaded country lose their lives or are crippled as part of the "collateral damage"

It could even resemble Vietnam, in which case the U.S. may end up grossly underestimating the ferocity and cleverness of the opposition.

[weatheriscool]