Economic and jobs news thread

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caltrek
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Trump Taps Hedge Fund Manager Scott Bessent to Run Treasury
by Courtenay Brown
November 22, 2024

Introduction:
(Axios) President-elect Trump will nominate Scott Bessent as Treasury secretary, positioning him as the top economic official representing the nation on the world stage.

Why it matters: The pick caps intense jockeying for the influential role that, at times, spilled out into public view. The process has been closely watched by financial markets for what it might signal about the direction of Trump's economic policy.

Zoom in: Bessent, 62, founded hedge fund Key Square Capital Management. Before that, he spent most of his career at Soros Capital Management, including as chief investment officer from 2011 to 2015.

• Bessent has been an avid fundraiser for Trump and a defender of the president-elect in media appearances.

• Trump has threatened to impose high tariffs on all U.S. imports. Some economists have warned that such aggressive tariffs could reignite inflation.

• In recent interviews, Bessent has tried to play down Trump's trade threats
Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/11/22/donal ... -bessent
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caltrek
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For more on how "aggressive tariffs could reignite inflation":

https://www.vox.com/commerce/387800/tru ... obal-trade

caltrek's comment: It sucks how poorly informed and misinformed voters that were frustrated with rising prices have elected in a regime that will now pursue inflationary policies. This done after the Biden administration had brought the rate of inflation down to low levels and the Harris campaign proposed policies that might have had the effect of actually reducing prices, at least for some goods and services.
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Trump threatens China with 100% tariff.
https://www.theguardian.com/business/20 ... ons-dollar
Writing on his social media platform, Truth Social, on Saturday, Trump declared that he would also act if they supported another currency to replace the dollar.

“We require a commitment from these countries that they will neither create a new Brics currency nor back any other currency to replace the mighty US dollar or they will face 100% tariffs and should expect to say goodbye to selling into the wonderful US economy,” Trump said.

...

The Brics group was originally made up of Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa and has been joined by Egypt, the United Arab Emirates, Ethiopia and Iran.

Some Brics members have shown interest in de-dollarising the world economy. In October, Vladimir Putin called for an alternative international payments system that could prevent the US from using the dollar as a political weapon. Others, though, fear the consequences of severing relations with the US and other western countries by breaking away from the dollar, which underpins world finance.

A 100% tariff at the US border, if implemented, would drive up sharply the cost of goods from Brics members, fuelling US inflation and destabilising global trade flows.

Get ready to be fucked at the store. I hope trump fucks up so bad that 2026 is a wave year like 2018.
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US Black Friday spending in stores and online rose 3.4% year-over-year, data show

Source: Reuters

November 30, 2024 4:57 PM EST Updated 12 hours ago
Nov 30 (Reuters) - Black Friday spending in U.S. retail stores was muted this year in contrast to a more robust rise online, as bargain-hungry Americans skipped stores in favor of their phones and laptops, according to data from Mastercard and other data providers.

Sales at brick-and-mortar stores grew just 0.7% year-over-year, according to preliminary estimates by payments processor Mastercard, and were lower according to data firm Facteus. Yet U.S. e-commerce sales increased by a hefty 14.6% online, according to Mastercard SpendingPulse, a metric measuring U.S. retail sales across the Mastercard payments network combined with estimates for cash and check payments.

The estimates aren't adjusted for inflation. "If you layer in inflation, in-store (spending) is even lower," said Jonathan Chin, co-founder and head of data at Facteus. The firm looked at spending patterns on debit and credit cards online and in stores on a seven-day rolling basis year-over-year.

Facteus said online sales grew 11.1% and in-store sales fell 5.4%. With inflation, those numbers drop to 8.5% online growth and an 8% in-store decline.
Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/retail ... 024-11-30/
Tadasuke

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I used to be pro libertarian capitalism for some time, until I realised that one guy I know who does a job remarkably necessary and good for a healthy functioning of society, earns ⅕ what another guy I know a bit earns, who worked in a completely unnecessary job, which was literally making society sicker and worse off (but the company richer, because who's going to stop them?).

It repulsed me so much, that I cut off all contacts with him, not being able to understand how he can go to work smiling everyday knowing he actively contributes to deterioration of some individuals. And of course he also posts photos from luxurious vacations on Facebook and Instagram ... it's f**ked up, honestly.

Trump earned a lot of money from gambling by the way. Making lots of people worse off and casinos better off... 😞
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Tadasuke

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One of my friends majored in a degree he was interested in, but found none job offerings for his degree. Therefore he got a humble job, which pays $1200 a month for working 56 hours a week. He used to be in a relationship with an exceptionally pretty girlfriend (way out of his league, I was really surprised), but they parted ways after 14 years, so he's currently depressed.

Another friend went to a university only for a year, got no job, all of his family is dead (which is both unfortunate and fortunate), but he gets $5700 a month from rent (thanks to his great great grandparents), so he doesn't need or want a job. He's married and plays a lot of video games, also regularly goes on trips to foreign countries. He's satisfied and feels safe.

Those two are not the two I wrote about in my previous post here.

People have very varying circumstances.
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New Rule from Agency Trump Wants Destroyed Would Save Consumers $5 Billion Per Year in Overdraft Fees
December 12, 2024

Introduction:
(Common Dreams) The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, one of President-elect Donald Trump's top expected targets as he plans to dismantle parts of the federal government after taking office in January, announced on Thursday its latest action aimed at saving households across the U.S. hundreds of dollars in fees each year.

The agency issued a final rule to close a 55-year-old loophole that has allowed big banks to collect billions of dollars in overdraft fees from consumers each year,

The rule makes significant updates to federal regulations for financial institutions' overdraft fees, ordering banks with more than $10 billion in assets to choose between several options:

• Capping their overdraft fees at $5;

• Capping fees at an amount that covers costs and losses; or

• Disclosing the terms of overdraft loans as they do with other loans, giving consumers a choice regarding whether they open a line of overdraft credit and allowing them to comparison-shop.

The final rule is expected to save Americans $5 billion annually in overdraft fees, or about $225 per household that pays overdraft fees.
Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/cfpb-junk-fees

caltrek’s comment: I read news articles like this and then realize that many voters voted for Trump on the supposition that he would be better on the issue of inflation. It makes me want to just shake my head in disbelief. I suspect that there are going to be so many “I told you so” developemts in the Trump term that it is not going to even be funny. Oh well.
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weatheriscool wrote: Thu Dec 12, 2024 6:33 pm
More on that: https://www.commondreams.org/news/econo ... portation
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US Growth Revised to 3.1% on Stronger Consumer Spending, Exports

Source: Bloomberg

December 19, 2024 at 8:33 AM EST
Updated on December 19, 2024 at 11:35 AM EST


The US economy expanded at a faster pace in the third quarter than previously estimated, owing in part to to stronger consumer spending and exports.

Gross domestic product increased at a 3.1% annualized rate in the July-to-September period, the third estimate of the figures from the Bureau of Economic Analysis showed Thursday. That compared to a previous projection of 2.8%. Growth in consumer spending was marked up to 3.7% — the fastest since early 2023 — and exports also grew faster than previously estimated, both thanks to services.

The numbers reinforce the notion that the economy is still powering ahead despite expectations among forecasters for an eventual slowdown. The report comes just a day after the Federal Reserve triggered a stock-market selloff by signaling a slower pace of interest-rate cuts in 2025, in part premised on recent stronger-than-expected economic data.

The report also showed one of the Fed’s preferred inflation metrics — the personal consumption expenditures price index, excluding food and energy — was marked up slightly, to 2.2%. November PCE data is due Friday.
Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ng-exports
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Jobless claims drop to 8-month low to end 2024. Low U.S. unemployment fuels economy.

Source: MarketWatch

Last Updated: Jan. 2, 2025 at 9:15 a.m. ET
First Published: Jan. 2, 2025 at 8:36 a.m. ET

The number of people who applied for unemployment benefits after Christmas fell to an eight-month low, capping off a year of remarkably low layoffs in a surprising resilient U.S. economy.

New jobless claims, a proxy for layoffs, dropped by 9,000 to 211,000 in the final week of 2024, the government said Thursday. By comparison, new jobless claims in the same in final week of 2023 were similarly low at 198,000.

New jobless claims have hovered in the low 200,000s for the last three years. Most businesses have had strong-enough sales to retain all their employees and only use layoffs as a last resort in light of steady economic growth.

One big caveat about jobless claims: The government’s seasonal adjustments during the holiday season that starts at Thanksgiving are less accurate than usual. Sometimes the adjustments exaggerate the shift in jobless claims.
Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/joble ... y-ba92fdb1
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November jobless rates up over the year in 308 of 389 metro areas; payroll jobs up in 32

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

https://www.bls.gov/home.htm[quote]

November jobless rates up over the year in 308 of 389 metro areas; payroll jobs up in 32
Jobless rates were higher in November than a year earlier in 308 of the 389 metropolitan areas, lower in 60, and unchanged in 21. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 32 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 357.

Economic News Release USDL-25-0001

Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment Summary
For release 10:00 a.m. (ET) Friday, January 3, 2025

Technical information:
Employment: (202) 691-6559 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/sae
Unemployment: (202) 691-6392 * [email protected] * www.bls.gov/lau

Media contact: (202) 691-5902 * [email protected]


METROPOLITAN AREA EMPLOYMENT AND UNEMPLOYMENT -- NOVEMBER 2024


Unemployment rates were higher in November than a year earlier in 308 of the 389 metropolitan areas, lower in 60 areas, and unchanged in 21 areas, the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported today. A total of 65 areas had jobless rates of less than 3.0 percent and 6 areas had rates of at least 8.0 percent. Nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 32 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 357 areas. The national unemployment rate in November was 4.0 percent, not seasonally adjusted, up from 3.5 percent a year earlier.

This news release presents statistics from two monthly programs. The civilian labor force and unemployment data are based on the same concepts and definitions as those used for the national household survey estimates. These data pertain to individuals by where they reside. The employment data are from an establishment survey that measures nonfarm employment, hours, and earnings by industry. These data pertain to jobs on payrolls defined by where the establishments are located. For more information about the concepts and statistical methodologies used by these two programs, see the Technical Note.

Metropolitan Area Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In November, Sioux Falls, SD, had the lowest unemployment rate, 1.5 percent. The next lowest rate was in Rapid City, SD, 1.7 percent. El Centro, CA, had the highest rate, 19.0 percent. A total of 224 areas had November jobless rates below the U.S. rate of 4.0 percent, 152 areas had rates above it, and 13 areas had rates equal to that of the nation. (See table 1.)

The largest over-the-year unemployment rate increases in November occurred in Asheville, NC (+3.4 percentage points), and Kokomo, IN (+3.2 points). Sixty-two other areas had rate increases of at least 1.0 percentage point. Kahului-Wailuku-Lahaina, HI, had the largest over-the-year rate decrease in November (-3.0 percentage points). Five other areas had rate declines of at least 1.0 percentage point.

Of the 51 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more, Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT, had the lowest jobless rate in November, 2.7 percent. Las Vegas-Henderson-Paradise, NV, had the highest rate, 5.9 percent. Forty-four large areas had over-the-year unemployment rate increases, six had decreases, and one had no change. The largest rate increase occurred in Detroit-Warren-Dearborn, MI (+1.7 percentage points). The largest jobless rate decline occurred in Hartford-West Hartford-East Hartford, CT (-1.1 percentage points).

Metropolitan Division Unemployment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

Eleven of the most populous metropolitan areas are made up of 38 metropolitan divisions, which are essentially separately identifiable employment centers. In November, Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL, had the lowest division unemployment rate, 2.4 percent. Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI, had the highest rate among the divisions, 6.3 percent. (See table 2.)

In November, 31 metropolitan divisions had over-the-year unemployment rate increases, 6 had decreases, and 1 had no change. The largest increase occurred in Detroit-Dearborn-Livonia, MI (+2.1 percentage points). The largest unemployment rate decline from November 2023 occurred in Nassau County-Suffolk County, NY (-0.4 percentage point).

Metropolitan Area Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In November 2024, nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 32 metropolitan areas and was essentially unchanged in 357 areas. The largest over-the-year employment increases occurred in New York-Newark-Jersey City, NY-NJ-PA (+139,200), Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+64,500), and Houston-The Woodlands-Sugar Land, TX (+62,500). The largest over-the-year percentage gain in employment occurred in Rochester, MN (+5.9 percent), followed by Boise City, ID, and Stockton-Lodi, CA (+4.3 percent each). (See table 3.)

Over the year, nonfarm employment increased in 16 metropolitan areas with a 2010 Census population of 1 million or more and was essentially unchanged in 35 areas. The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment in these large metropolitan areas occurred in Richmond, VA (+3.4 percent), Indianapolis-Carmel-Anderson, IN (+2.5 percent), and Charlotte-Concord-Gastonia, NC-SC (+2.3 percent).

Metropolitan Division Nonfarm Employment (Not Seasonally Adjusted)

In November, nonfarm payroll employment increased over the year in 5 metropolitan divisions and was essentially unchanged in 33 divisions. The largest over-the-year increases in employment among the metropolitan divisions occurred in New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (+107,300), Los Angeles-Long Beach-Glendale, CA (+46,200), and Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX (+43,200). (See table 4.)

The largest over-the-year percentage increases in employment occurred in Miami-Miami Beach-Kendall, FL (+1.9 percent), and Fort Worth-Arlington, TX (+1.7 percent), followed by Dallas-Plano-Irving, TX, and New York-Jersey City-White Plains, NY-NJ (+1.4 percent each).

_____________
The State Employment and Unemployment news release for December 2024 is scheduled to be released on Tuesday, January 28, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. (ET). The Metropolitan Area Employment and Unemployment news release for December 2024 is scheduled to be released on Wednesday, February 5, 2025, at 10:00 a.m. (ET).

{snip]
[/quote]
Read more: https://www.bls.gov/news.release/metro.nr0.htm
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Stock Market Gain that Followed Trump's Election Win is Close to Being Wiped Out
by Alex Harring
January 10, 2025

Introduction:
(CNBC) The Trump bump could become the Trump slump.

The S&P 500's return since Election Day has fallen to just around 0.5%. If that holds through Inauguration Day on Jan. 20, it will mark the worst performance for the broad index between an election and inauguration since Barack Obama came into the White House in 2009 amid the global financial crisis, according to data from Bespoke Investment Group.

Stocks soared to record highs following Donald Trump's victory, as investors cheered the likelihood for tax cuts and deregulation that are considered beneficial for corporations. The Dow Jones Industrial Average, for example, surged more than 1,500 points in the session the day after Election Day.

But focus has since shifted back to inflation and the path of interest rates going forward, which has poured cold water on that rally. Excluding the one-day gain on the Wednesday after Election Day, the S&P 500 is actually down more than 1%.
Conclusion:
"President-elect Donald Trump's incoming administration is … expected to bring a pro-growth agenda, less regulatory oversight, and potentially lower taxes," Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, wrote to clients this week. "Of course, some of these policies could be detrimental to inflation and the ballooning U.S. deficit."

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/market ... d5&ei=35
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House GOP Puts Medicaid, Affordable Care Act, Climate Measures on Chopping Block
by Ben Leonard, Meredith Lee Hill and Kelsey Tamborrino
January 10, 2025

Introduction:
(Politico) House Republicans are passing around a “menu” of more than $5 trillion in cuts they could use to bankroll President-elect Donald Trump’s top priorities this year, including tax cuts and border security.

The early list of potential spending offsets obtained by POLITICO includes changes to Medicare and ending Biden administration climate programs, along with slashing welfare and “reimagining” the Affordable Care Act.
Additional extract:
The overall savings add up to as much as $5.7 trillion over 10 years, though the list is highly ambitious and unlikely to all become law given narrow margins for Republicans in the House and Senate…

Cuts to Medicaid, the Affordable Care Act and the country’s largest anti-hunger program would spark massive opposition from Democrats and would also face some GOP resistance. House Speaker Mike Johnson can’t afford any Republican defections if he wants to pass a package on party lines.

Even proposed cuts to green energy tax credits, worth as much as $500 billion, could be tricky — as the document notes, they depend “on political viability.” Already 18 House Republicans — 14 of whom won reelection in November — warned Johnson against prematurely repealing some of the IRA’s energy tax credits, which are funding multiple manufacturing projects in GOP districts.
Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/2025/01/ ... 00197541
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MORE JOBS GAINED UNDER BIDEN'S 4 YEARS THAN UNDER THE 8 YEARS OF FORMER PRESIDENTS TRUMP, OBAMA, OR GEORGE W. BUSH
The U.S. economy added 2.23 million jobs in 2024, including 256,000 in the final full month of Joe Biden's presidency.

The big picture: There have been more jobs gained under Biden's term than under the full terms of former Presidents Trump, Obama, or George W. Bush.

By the numbers: Biden is now at +16.1 million, aided by the post-pandemic economic recovery.

Trump oversaw 2.1 million job losses, although there were 6.6 million jobs added during his first three years in office (i.e., pre-pandemic years).
Obama oversaw 7.1 million job gains, with losses at the beginning of his first term due to the Great Financial Crisis.
Bush oversaw 5.2 million job gains.
Bill Clinton has a stronger record than any of his successors, with a total of 23 million jobs added, although his annual average trails that of Biden.
https://www.axios.com/2025/01/10/iden-j ... -linkinbio
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