Syrian Civil War

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[Powers]

Sounds unlikely but we will know eventually.

[Powers]

Also would it be a good idea to unite the threads? Most of the posts are lost with the old board after all.

[Doozer]

I've waited 13 years for this day... All I can say is that I'm cautiously optimistic.

[funkervogt]

Don't close this thread. There's a good chance the civil war will continue, even without Assad (look at Libya after Qaddafi).

[weatheriscool]

https://news.sky.com/story/assad-has-le ... e-13269339

[caltrek]

^^^I wonder what the world would make of AI generated images of Assad enjoying life in Moscow?

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

Background Re: Fall of Assad Government
by Jake Johnson
December 8, 2024

Extract:

(Common Dreams) The rebel movement was led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS)—an Islamist organization that was once an affiliate of al-Qaeda—along with Turkish-backed Syrian militias. HTS is led by Abu Mohammad al-Jolani; the U.S. State Department has deemed him a "Specially Designated Global Terrorist" and is offering a reward of up to $10 million for information that results in his capture.

After the Assad government fell, ending a decades-long family dynasty, The Associated Press reported that "revelers filled Umayyad Square in the city center, where the Defense Ministry is located."

"Men fired celebratory gunshots into the air and some waved the three-starred Syrian flag that predates the Assad government and was adopted by the revolutionaries," the outlet reported. "A few kilometers (miles) away, Syrians stormed the presidential palace, tearing up portraits of the toppled president. Soldiers and police officers left their posts and fled, and looters broke into the Defense Ministry. Videos from Damascus showed families wandering into the presidential palace, with some emerging carrying stacks of plates and other household items."

Prisons, including a notorious facility on the outskirts of Damascus that Amnesty International described as a "human slaughterhouse," were reportedly opened in the wake of Assad's ouster, with video footage showing detainees walking free.

"Literally seeing hundreds of people across Damascus, friends, family people I've known to be neutral and not involved in politics, all post green flags, all support this movement, people are tired, broken and angry, they want change and change is what they've got," Danny Makki, a non-resident scholar at the Middle East Institute who was on the ground in Damascus as the government fell, wrote on social media.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/assa ... -collapses

caltrek’s comment: Somebody recently commented, regarding recent developments in Syria, something to the effect that in the Middle East the enemy of your enemy may not be your friend. For me, a lot will depend on whether the new government goes through with free and fair elections and whether the results of such elections are honored. Sadly, it is hard for me to believe in a best-case outcome, but I am open to being pleasantly surprised.

[caltrek]

Immediately after I posted my comment, I came upon this on point article:

Syrians Finally Won the Arab Spring. Can They Avoid Pitfalls and Win Democracy?
by Juan Cole
December 8, 2024

Extract:

(Common Dreams) The tip of the spear of the revolution was the fighters of the Levant Liberation Council (Hay’at Tahrir al-Sham or HTS), a hard-line fundamentalist organization that had run the province of Idlib in an authoritarian manner in recent years. It is not ISIL (ISIS, Daesh), though that is one path the victors could take if they were so inclined. So far, their behavior in Aleppo has presented a mixed picture, with some killing of Kurds but less turmoil, including for Christians, than some had feared.

The revolution has, however, now become a mass movement, and despite the Fundamentalist Vigilante (“Salafi Jihadi”) shape of the more effective militias, all sorts of people have joined in. Many of the expatriate supporters of the revolution are businessmen and liberals, who had hoped to come to power in 2011 before al-Assad deliberately provoked a civil war and drove the opposition into the arms of Turkey and the Gulf.

Syria is not well placed for a democratic transition, though stranger things have happened. It would be a shame if the people had to trade one form of authoritarianism for another, as happened in Egypt, Libya, Tunisia, Yemen, and Sudan. Overthrowing a dictator is very difficult, but it is no guarantee of liberty.

Al-Assad is the seventh long-ruling Arab dictator to fall since January 2011. The strongmen of Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, and Yemen fell in 2011-2012. The Bahrain monarchy, however, managed to stay in power, as did Al-Assad in Syria, though the cost to the Syrian people was a years-long civil war that left hundreds of thousands dead and half the country homeless.

I wrote a book about these “Arab Spring” youth revolts, based on field work, The New Arabs, which is still good background reading — if I do say so myself.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/opinion/s ... democracy

[caltrek]

Israel Captures Syrian Territory as a ‘Temporary Move’ After Assad Regime Collapse
by Barak Ravid
December 8, 2024

Introduction:

(Axios) The Israeli military captured territory on the Syrian side of the border in the Golan Heights on Sunday after the Assad regime collapsed, the IDF said in a statement.

Why it matters: This is the first time Israel has captured territory in Syria since the war in 1973.

• Israel notified the U.S. in advance about its operation to take control of the buffer zone on the border with Syria and several other key locations on the Syrian side of the border, an Israeli official told me.

• Israel told the Biden administration this is a temporary move that will last a few days to a few weeks, until the security situation along the border stabilizes, Israeli and U.S. officials said.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2024/12/08/syria ... ts-assad

[Doozer]

Anyone care to discuss potential long-term ramifications of Assad's collapse? For example, could it trigger a domino effect in the region?

[wjfox]

Anyone care to discuss potential long-term ramifications of Assad's collapse? For example, could it trigger a domino effect in the region?

Israel may try to annex more territory. They already claim the Golan Heights. Depends how peaceful the new Syrian regime is, I guess.

[wjfox]

Turkey says Israel 'displaying occupying mentality' in Syria buffer zone

Turkish President Recep Erdogan - whose country hosts the most Syrian refugees of any other - says Syria should not be divided again.

Turkey has become home to millions of Syrian refugees during its civil war and supported some armed groups operating in the country.

Speaking earlier this morning, Erdogan says his country will stand against any attacks on the "integrity of (Syria's) lands".

"From now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again... Any attack on the freedom of the Syrian people, the stability of the new administration, and the integrity of its lands will find us standing against it," he adds.

His comments come after the Turkish foreign ministry earlier denounced the Israel Defense Forces for entering the demilitarised buffer zone separating the Israeli-occupied Golan Heights from Syria.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cj90138 ... 192e0#post

-----

Arab states condemn Israel's reported operations inside Syria buffer zone

published at 13:59

Some Arab countries have issued official statements rejecting Israel's reported seizure of the demilitarised buffer zone with Syria in the occupied Golan Heights.

Foreign ministries in Egypt, Qatar and Saudi Arabia have said the Israeli move is a violation of Syria's sovereignty, international law, and the disengagement agreement signed in 1974 - which Israel says has collapsed.

A spokesperson for the Qatari foreign ministry said during a press conference on Tuesday that they consider it unacceptable for Israel to "exploit" the current situation in Syria.

This development comes after a source quoted by Reuters said that Israeli forces were advancing towards Damascus.

While an Israeli military official originally denied these claims, the Israeli Defence Forces later acknowledged that its troops could be operating beyond the demilitarised buffer zone in the Golan Heights.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/cj90138 ... aa113#post

[caltrek]

Anyone care to discuss potential long-term ramifications of Assad's collapse? For example, could it trigger a domino effect in the region?

Here is an article with a lot of discussion pertinent to that theme:

Understanding the Rebellion in Syria
by Jospeh Daher
December 9, 2024

Extract:

(Tempest) In the current military campaign, once again the Syrian National Army (SNA) serves mainly Turkish objectives in targeting areas controlled by the Kurdish-led Syrian Defense Forces and with large Kurdish populations. The SNA has, for instance, captured the city of Tal Rifaat and Shahba area in northern Aleppo, previously under the governance of the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), leading to the forced displacement of more than 150,000 civilians and many violations of human rights against Kurdish individuals, including assassinations and kidnappings. The SNA then announced a military offensive, supported by the Turkish army on the city of Manbij, home to 100,000 civilians, and controlled by the SDF.
…
The Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham ( HTS) has a relative autonomy from Turkey in contrast to the SNA, which is controlled by Turkey and serves its interests. The two forces are different, pursue distinct goals, and have conflicts between them, although for the moment these have been kept under wraps. For instance, HTS is currently not seeking to confront the SDF. In addition to this, the SNA published a critical statement against HTS for their “aggressive behavior” against SNA members, while HTS reportedly blamed SNA fighters for looting.
…
For Iran, Syria is crucial for the transfer of weapons to, and logistic coordination with, Hezbollah.
…
On its side, Russia’s Hmeimim airbase in Syria’s Latakia province, and its naval facility at Tartous on the coast, have been important sites for Russia to assert its geopolitical clout in the Middle East, the Mediterranean, and Africa. Loss of these bases would undermine Russia’s status as its intervention in Syria has been used as an example of how it can use military force to shape events outside of its borders and compete with western states.
…
…with the fall of the regime, Turkey’s influence is even more important in Syria and probably makes it the key regional actor in the country. Ankara is also seeking to use the SNA to weaken the SDF, which is dominated by the armed wing of the Kurdish party PYD, a sister organization of Turkey’s Kurdish party PKK, which is designated as terrorist by Ankara, the U.S., and the E.U..

The article also comments upon effects on the Palestinian solidarity movement.

Read more here: https://tempestmag.org/2024/12/underst ... n-syria/

[erowind]

Israel invading a 3rd country in a little over a years time, totally not a fascist country...

[Powers]

Israel invading a 3rd country in a little over a years time, totally not a fascist country...

Literally, like at least wait until Hamas is defeated lol. I feel they will stay there until Trump assumes...

[caltrek]

U.S. Bombs Over 75 Targets in Syria After Assad Falls
by Brett Wilkins
December 9, 2024

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) "The Western press are waxing lyrical about the new Syria being born—but not a word on the U.S. and Israeli bombs falling from the sky," said Yanis Varoufakis.

U.S. military forces launched dozens of airstrikes on more than 75 Islamic State targets in Syria on Sunday after the fall of longtime Syrian President Bashar al-Assad and amid ongoing Israeli and Turkish attacks on the war-torn Middle Eastern nation.

According to U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM), warplanes including B-52 bombers, F-15 fighters, and A-10 ground attack aircraft "conducted dozens of precision airstrikes targeting known ISIS camps and operatives in central Syria."

CENTCOM called the strikes "part of the ongoing mission to disrupt, degrade, and defeat ISIS in order to prevent the terrorist group from conducting external operations and to ensure that ISIS does not seek to take advantage of the current situation to reconstitute in central Syria."

The U.S., "together with allies and partners in the region, will continue to carry out operations to degrade ISIS operational capabilities even during this dynamic period in Syria," CENTCOM added.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/us-b ... ria-again

caltrek’s comment: Given the intended target of these attacks (ISIS) I can see that many folks would agree that it is a good idea. What is quite striking is the dearth of media coverage to date on these air attacks. It would seem the lame stream media does not even want this policy to be the subject of debates.

[firestar464]

The coverage of the US bombs is literally just a simplistic "bombs bad." Common Dreams should come back when they have actual wrongdoing to report. Also imagine citing CodePink as some sort of legit org.