2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

From NYT/Siena battleground polls:

But there are signs that late deciders are breaking for Ms. Harris: Among the 8 percent of voters who said they had only recently decided on their vote, she wins the group by 55 percent to 44 percent.

https://www.nytimes.com/2024/11/03/us/p ... -poll.html

and from the new Yahoo/YouGov poll:

Harris also leads Trump 70% to 26% among late-breaking voters — the quarter of the electorate who say they made up their mind about which candidate to support in September or October. And 4% of Trump voters say they could “still change [their] mind between now and the election,” versus just 1% of Harris supporters.

https://www.yahoo.com/news/final-yahoo- ... jwumo1bpf4

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

'Terrifying' Ad Shows Deadly Impact of GOP Abortion Bans
by Julia Conley
November 3, 2024

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Dr. Davis, what do I do?" asks a man frantically, kneeling near his partner as she writhes in pain on the floor.

"John, she needs an abortion, or she's going to die from the pregnancy," answers the doctor over the phone.

But a Republican congressman suddenly appears and tells the man, "That's not happening," explaining that abortion care is now banned because the GOP is in control of the government.

The scenario plays out in the latest ad from Progress Action Fund, a Democratic political action committee that's produced a number of viral videos focusing on how Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump's policies and those outlined in the right-wing agenda Project 2025 would impact both men and women's ability to make private decisions.

In the ad, the Republican lawmaker tells the man, "I won the last election, so it's my decision" whether the woman is able to receive the standard care needed to end her pregnancy.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/misc ... abortion

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[raklian]

I think the Democrats will keep the Senate. Women are voting Democratic down the ballot because they figure by doing so they increase the odds of overturning state-supported abortion bans.

[weatheriscool]

I've never seen so little spark to a campaign during the last 24 hours before an election. There's no fucking way Trump is going to win tomorrow. McCain 2008 had full seats the day before that, john kerry in 2004, etc.




Yeah, its fucking over.

[wjfox]

'Audibly distraught' Trump insider fears he's 'in a dark place right now': reporter

Good. He is honestly one of the worst human beings of the last 50 years. He deserves to suffer for the rest of his miserable existence.

[wjfox]

My prediction.

I'm convinced that Harris will gain Iowa. That recent poll (+4) came from one of the absolute best, most accurate pollsters.

Early data on Nevada and Georgia looks promising too.

Michigan is a tricky one to predict, due to its large Muslim population, who may protest over Gaza by refusing to vote for Harris. But I think she'll just edge it.

Wisconsin went red in 2016, but is normally a quite reliable blue state.

Pennsylvania, the most pivotal swing state, looks like going blue, in part due to the recent debacle at Madison Square Garden, which targeted Puerto Ricans. They are a very significant part of the electorate and are furious at those remarks.

I think Harris will pick up an extra point in Nebraska, which has a split voting system rather than winner-takes-all.

As for Texas and Florida, they will stay red. But the way demographics are trending, both have potential to turn blue in 2028 or 2032.

While Trump still maintains a fairly hardcore base, I think most Americans are growing tired of the whole MAGA cult/movement. His crowd sizes are clearly becoming smaller. His mental decline seems to have accelerated in recent months. Some of his recent behaviour has been crazy even by his standards, such as the mic gesture the other day. And now we've had the Jeffrey Epstein recordings, which, although unlikely to dissuade his most devoted followers, will put off undecided voters. There's also the threat to democracy itself and the whole Project 2025 thing, which has some truly insane proposals. And then, we have the overturning of Roe v. Wade, which seems likely to drive higher numbers of women to turn out and vote against the GOP.

Meanwhile, there's a genuine excitement and energy about the Harris campaign and the historic precedent it would set. This isn't the same as 2016, when the Democrats fielded a deeply unpopular candidate with large amounts of baggage.

https://www.270towin.com/maps/kZ8A4

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

One last prediction of the results! Final....
Arizona 1.2% For Trump
Nevada .2% for Trump
Georgia .5% For Trump
NC .2% For Harris
Pa .8% For Harris
Mi 1.8% for Harris
Wis .6%
It will take 3-4 days to get to these results. Talking about Nevada and Pa! We should know Mi and wis by the next day early....

I've decided to hand NC to Harris because of the governors race. The problem For Harris in Ga is their is no senate races unlike 2020 and the black turn out is down....So she loses it but there should be enough late deciders, straight ticket voters pissed about Robertson and anti-trump republicans in NC to pull her across the table.

Arizona and Nevada are gone. The cold truth is Mexican Americans are pissed off on the immigration issue and have been convinced to vote Trump and that is exactly what they'll do. At the very least not vote at all. It isn't just the southwest but also Texas and Florida...A lot of southern Texas have turn out way down as we speak!!! Texas will probably go at least 8% for Trump and Cruz is going to walk back into the senate. Florida will go 9-11% Republican and will become a waste land for democrats.

The main problem for the houses is the fact that this is going to wash into Califorina. This should flip 4-6 seats to the republicans. I suspect that the northeast will be favorable for the democrats and so will the rust belt as long as Harris carries them but this will allow the gop to maintain a 218 like hold on the house. The senate will be 51-49 republican majority.

Harris will win the rust belt because that she was part of the most pro-labor admin of the past 60 years and Trump just can't pull the hood over peoples eyes again. They see a snake! Not only that but northern and northeastern blacks will come out unlike southern blacks! So turn out in Philly, Detroit and Wisconsin big cities will be at near 2020 levels.



IF Trump pulls of 2016 Tomorrow as in winning Pa, Mi and wis! I'll ask for my account to be deleted and I'll remove myself from this board until January of 2025. Only coming back as a surprise person. I've been around for over 12 years on mr.foxes boards so it wouldn't be the first ride. lol

[Bird]

Alright, why not? Predictions:

Pennsylvania: Harris
Michigan: Harris
Wisconsin: Harris
Nevada: Harris
Georgia: Harris
Arizona: Trump
North Carolina: Trump

I just don't really know with this election, honestly. Anything from a Harris landslide to a last-minute Trump win seems possible.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

Where California’s voter turnout stands so far — and what it could mean

by Joe Garofoli
• 2h • 4 min read

There’s reason for hope among California Democrats headed into Election Day.

Early Democratic voter turnout is much higher than it was in 2022 in several key California House races, which could give Democrats a shot at retaking the House.

Both parties have targeted several key House districts in the Central Valley and Southern California that President Joe Biden won in 2020, but Republicans won two years ago. In each, the Democratic turnout is higher than it was in the midterm elections two years ago. Democrats need to win a net of four races to take back control of the House.

“There’s absolutely going to be higher turnout than two years ago,” said Paul Mitchell, vice president of Political Data, a California voter data firm.

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA1txGwr

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

Democracy and economy voters' top issue - early exit polls

22:13

The first wave of exit polls has just been released - and voters have named the state of democracy as the most important issue when deciding who to vote for as president.

Around a third of people asked said it was their top concern, out of the five options given.

The economy ranked second, with three in ten voters choosing it, according to this preliminary data.

Abortion and immigration were the next most important issues and foreign policy was the least picked option.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/live/czxrnw5 ... d7d2f#post