2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[Time_Traveller]

Republicans preparing to reject US election result if Trump loses, warn strategists

Fri 1 Nov 2024 13.12 GMT

Republicans are already laying the ground for rejecting the result of next week’s US presidential election in the event Donald Trump loses, with early lawsuits baselessly alleging fraud and partisan polls exaggerating his popularity to make it harder for his supporters to accept that he did not win, veteran strategists say.

The warnings – from Democrats and anti-Trump Republicans – come as Americans prepare to vote on Tuesday in the most consequential presidential contest in generations. Most polls show Trump running neck and neck with Kamala Harris, the vice-president and Democratic nominee, with the two candidates seemingly evenly matched in seven key swing states.

But suspicions have been voiced over a spate of recent polls, mostly commissioned in battleground states from groups with Republican links, that mainly show Trump leading. The projection of surging Trump support as election day nears has drawn confident predictions from him and his supporters.

“We’re leading big in the polls, all of the polls,” Trump told a rally in New Mexico on Thursday. “I can’t believe it’s a close race,” he told a separate rally in North Carolina, a swing state where polls show he and Harris are in a virtual dead heat.

An internal memo sent to Trump by his chief pollster is confirming that story to him, with Tony Fabrizio declaring the ex-president’s “position nationally and in every single battleground state is SIGNIFICANTLY better today than it was four years ago”.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... n-lawsuits

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Five Demographic Narratives that Might Determine the 2024 Election
by Christian Paz
November 1, 2024

Introduction:

(Vox) The 2024 election cycle has produced some stunning and sometimes counterintuitive narratives about how demographic subgroups might end up voting. We may just see a historic gulf in the way men and women vote — or not. Polls suggest we’re in for the greatest racial realignment since the Civil Rights Act was passed — or it could be a mirage. Young people might sit out the election because they’re disillusioned and vote for a third party — or they could turn out in record numbers for Kamala Harris. The more diverse Sun Belt states might pave the way for a Donald Trump victory — but the predominantly older and whiter “Blue Wall” states might elect the first Black woman president.

We’ll know soon enough. Though Election Day is mere days away, at least 60 million people have already voted. Battleground states are hitting or exceeding their records for early voting. And with polls of likely voters still showing an evenly tied race, any combination of factors, events, or movements within the electorate could swing the outcome.

To that end, I’ve assembled a handful of questions we at Vox have been tracking for the last year. Their eventual answers could determine who wins the White House.

Will there be late deciders? And what might change their minds?...

Will there be Republican crossover to Harris?...

Will Arab American voters drift toward Republicans?...

Will Trump’s gamble on younger Black men pay off?...

Will Latino voters shift right in the states that matter?..

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/2024-elections/381 ... no-voter

caltrek’s comment: Per my post of October 31, 2024 10:13 am and cited article within that post, I am surprised that something like “Will the gender gap resulting in more women voting for Harris shift the election in her favor?” was not included in this list.

Related to that would be abortion rights concerns. Subsequent to the overturning of Roe v. Wade, a lot of women have registered to vote and then voted in high percentages in a manner that is hard for polling organizations to track accurately. Or so some have argued.

[weatheriscool]

CA update - 11/1

Dems 3,057,381 (48.8%)
Reps 1,872,532 (29.9%)
Other 1,339,326 (21.4%)

= 6,269,239 total

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[raklian]

Like I said, if Kamala wins the Presidency, it would be because of women.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

[wjfox]

That's a huge margin of error. Pretty useless poll.

[Time_Traveller]

Shock poll puts Harris ahead in Iowa - as women 'drive late shift' towards Democrats

Sunday 3 November 2024 09:45, UK



Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in a poll in Iowa, a state Donald Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020.

The vice president has a three-point lead in the midwestern state, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 808 likely voters.

"The poll shows that women - particularly those who are older or who are politically independent - are driving the late shift toward Harris," the poll said.'

The poll shows Ms Harris leading Mr Trump 47% to 44%.

It has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error and follows another Iowa Poll in September that gave Mr Trump a four-point lead, the newspaper reported.

https://news.sky.com/story/shock-poll-p ... e-13247314

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Shock poll puts Harris ahead in Iowa - as women 'drive late shift' towards Democrats

Sunday 3 November 2024 09:45, UK



Kamala Harris has pulled ahead of Donald Trump in a poll in Iowa, a state Donald Trump easily won in 2016 and 2020.

The vice president has a three-point lead in the midwestern state, according to a Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa Poll of 808 likely voters.

"The poll shows that women - particularly those who are older or who are politically independent - are driving the late shift toward Harris," the poll said.'

The poll shows Ms Harris leading Mr Trump 47% to 44%.

It has a 3.4 percentage point margin of error and follows another Iowa Poll in September that gave Mr Trump a four-point lead, the newspaper reported.

More on that from Axios: https://www.axios.com/2024/11/03/harris ... ump-women


However, there is also this more discouraging poll result:

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa likely voters finds 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Trump’s overall support increases to 54% and Harris to 45%.

Read more here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/novem ... harris-43

[Time_Traveller]

However, there is also this more discouraging poll result:

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa likely voters finds 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Trump’s overall support increases to 54% and Harris to 45%.

Read more here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/novem ... harris-43

Would the polls change that dramatically within a day of the one I posted.

[caltrek]

However, there is also this more discouraging poll result:

A new Emerson College Polling/RealClearDefense survey of Iowa likely voters finds 53% support former President Donald Trump and 43% support Vice President Kamala Harris for president in 2024. Three percent are undecided and 1% plan to vote for a third party. With undecided voters’ support accounted for, Trump’s overall support increases to 54% and Harris to 45%.

Read more here: https://emersoncollegepolling.com/novem ... harris-43

Would the polls change that dramatically within a day of the one I posted.

Probably not that public opinion has changed that dramatically, but that one or both of the polls are in error.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

TL;DR

If you care about Gaza/Palestinians, Ukraine, or climate change, DO NOT vote for Jill Stein.