2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[weatheriscool]

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[Time_Traveller]

Walz-Vance debate: when is it and how can I watch?

Tue 1 Oct 2024 12.00 BST

Tim Walz and JD Vance will face off Tuesday night in the first – and only – vice-presidential debate before the November election. With the campaigns currently neck-and-neck in the polls, and with voting under way in some states, it’s a chance for the would-be vice-presidents to introduce themselves to a wide US audience.

While VP debates don’t usually tip the scales much, they could matter in a close race – and they build profiles for lower-profile politicians who will probably stay on the national scene for years to come.

The pair will face off just weeks after Donald Trump and Kamala Harris faced off during the ABC debate and just 35 days before the election on 5 November.

Here’s what else to know about tonight’s presidential debate.

When is the Walz-Vance debate?

The 90-minute debate is scheduled to begin at 9pm ET on Tuesday, 1 October. It will take place in New York City and be hosted by CBS News.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ebate-time

I'd love to watch this but it will be 2am when it starts in the UK, hopefully I can catch it tomorrow after work.

[weatheriscool]

PA: 22,722 returned
Dems 1.8% return rate, Reps 1.1% return rate

NJ: 90,386 returned
Dems 10.9% return rate, Reps 9.9% return rate

NC: 6,946 returned
Dems 3.4% return rate, Reps 1.8% return rate

MD: 49,777 returned
Reps 7.8% return rate, Dems 6.9% return rate

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[caltrek]

Ted Cruz Campaign Update as Forecaster Shifts Race Toward Democrats
by Kaitlin Lewis
October 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Texas Republican Senator Ted Cruz's 2024 election campaign was downgraded from likely Republican to lean Republican on Tuesday by the Cook Political Report.

Texans have not sent a Democrat to the Senate since 1988, although Cruz's opponent, Democratic candidate Representative Colin Allred, appears to be a worthy challenger. As Cook Political Report noted on Tuesday, Allred outraised Cruz in the second quarter of this year by just shy of $3 million. Recent polling has also been less unfavorable to Cruz. In a survey released Sunday by Public Policy Polling/Clean and Prosperous America, the senator led Allred by just 1 percentage point (47 percent to 46 percent), within the survey's margin of error of 3.5 percent. In the same poll back in August, Cruz held a two-point lead.

"We still think this race remains tough for Allred, and that winning those last few points in Texas will be a herculean task," read the Cook Political Report. "Republicans say they are now beginning to drive up Allred's negatives as well as more money pours in, and an Oct. 15 debate will also be crucial."

"But the contest is closer than once thought, which the spending bears out, and Allred is raising plenty of money to keep the race competitive," the report added. "As such, it moves to Lean Republican."

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... b5&ei=117

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More on the debate:

JD Vance Controlled the Debate — Until the End
by Jeff Greenfield
October 2, 2024

Introduction:

(Politico) It took JD Vance 10 seconds to show his hand.

The first question of the vice presidential debate was whether he would support a preemptive strike on Iran. His answer began: “I was raised in a working class family.”

For a moment, you might have thought Vance was imitating Vice President Kamala Harris’ “I come from a middle-class family” mantra. But the intention was broader. All through the debate, Vance — with some of the worst approval ratings of any vice presidential candidate — was determined to soften his edges and offer himself as a reasonable guy, looking for common ground.

Vance acknowledged a difference of opinion with Tim Walz but repeatedly asserted that they agreed on finding solutions. He was at pains to say that some of Walz’s views, on housing, for instance, might be sensible. He expressed surprise and sympathy when he learned that Walz’s son had been present at a shooting. He kept his sharpest attacks sheathed, never criticizing Walz for allegedly inflating his military career. On the issue of abortion, Vance — who in the past has embraced hard-line restrictions, including a national abortion ban — noted that his state of Ohio had adopted a more liberal position, one he disagreed with. That, he argued, was the way to resolve the conflict.

It is a strategy that required preparation, shaped by the obvious conclusion of former President Donald Trump’s campaign that the public was rejecting the initial version of the candidate, with his contempt for childless cat ladies and his eagerness to “create” stories that stirred up hostility toward immigrants. But there was another aspect to Vance’s performance, and one that stood for much of the debate in contrast to Walz: For weeks, Vance has been participating in a series of interviews, often in forums that were less than hospitable. By the time of the debate, he’d been well versed in answering, deflecting and, in some cases, dissembling about key issues in the campaign.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/ ... -00182083

[wjfox]

WTF –

[weatheriscool]

I am guessing they're very conservative and religious.

[Ozzie guy]

I think JD Vance won the debate as based on that betting odds site I use as a metric

Pre debate 3.7% dem lead
Post debate was about dem lead 3.1% but I didn't make note of it
Now it's like 2.6% dem lead

https://electionbettingodds.com/Preside ... y2024.html

He swung things in the republicans favor but to play devils advocate part of this might be people expected Vance to act like an idiot yet from the little debate I saw he talked like a smart reasonable person.

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[wjfox]

[Tadasuke]

It seems to me that Trump's rhetoric is becoming worse and worse, more and more hateful year after year and he's truly a dangerous man. I hope Kamala wins in this elections. U.S. elections since 2016 are getting more and more heated. I hope this ends one day.

[weatheriscool]

Pennsylvania update - 10/4

Total ballots requested: 1,510,342
Dem 930,752 (61.6%)
Rep 408,220 (27.0%)
Other 171,370 (11.4%)

Total ballots returned: 89,598
Dem 65,235 (72.8%)
Rep 17,342 (19.4%)
Other 7,021 (7.8%)

Dem return rate: 7.0%
Rep return rate: 4.2%