Israel's conflict with its neighbours

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

More on that by JPost:

https://www.jpost.com/israel-news/article-812481

[firestar464]

Imagine Israel nuking Turkey and Turkey invokes Article 5. What happens next is the obliteration of Israel

[Cyber_Rebel]

Israel isn't going to attack a Nato member. Not even Russia is bold or foolish enough to outright attack Nato members. What will happen is the continued loss of international good will of Israel's behalf, which was already eroded as it is.

[Yuli Ban]

Imagine Israel nuking Turkey and Turkey invokes Article 5. What happens next is the obliteration of Israel

It would be the most egregious historical irony if Israel is the first country to nuke another since WW2
Not Russia hitting Ukraine, not India or Pakistan lobbing at each other, not a crazed America nuking China, not North Korea blowing up Seoul

No, it's Israel, probably nuking Turkey, Lebanon, or Iran
Heck if it's Iran, it might actually be a genuine nuclear exchange (it's a lesser known but similar "secret" to Israel's "we don't have nukes but we will use them if necessary" policy that Iran has some nukes but doesn't announce them, and the "race to a bomb" is more public saber-rattling)

[firestar464]

Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, has been killed

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/ham ... 8f0b6ebecd

[firestar464]

UN report says Palestinians detained by Israeli authorities since Oct. 7 faced torture, mistreatment

https://www.msn.com/en-ca/news/world/un ... r-BB1qVLSJ

WHEN WILL THE UNGA and UNSC DO SOMETHING???

[Time_Traveller]

Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, has been killed

https://www.cnn.com/world/live-news/ham ... 8f0b6ebecd

More on this

Iran vows revenge after Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh killed in Tehran

Wed 31 Jul 2024 15.10 BST

Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas, was killed by a strike in Tehran in the early hours of Wednesday morning, only hours after Israel said it had killed a top Hezbollah commander in Beirut.

The dual assassinations are heavy blows to Hamas and Hezbollah, but also raise the stakes for Iran, which backs both groups and vowed revenge. They will fuel growing fears that the war in Gaza could escalate into a broader regional conflict.

A senior Hamas official described Haniyeh’s killing as a “cowardly act that will not go unpunished”. Mediators Qatar and Egypt warned it would set back talks on a ceasefire and a deal to release hostages held in Gaza.

Haniyeh was targeted by an airstrike at a “residence in Tehran”, Hamas said, after he travelled to the Iranian capital for the inauguration of the country’s new president, Masoud Pezeshkian.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/artic ... l-gaza-war

My killing this Hamas leader, Israel is definitely opening up a huge bag of worms and now Iran is now involved.

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

ah shit here we go again

[Time_Traveller]

US to send jets and warships as Iran threatens Israel

3 August 2024, 00:34 BST

The US will deploy additional warships and fighter jets to the Middle East to help defend Israel from possible attacks by Iran and its proxies, the Pentagon said.

Tensions remain high in the region over the assassination of Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh in Iran and a key commander of the Lebanese militant group Hezbollah.

Missile defence forces were placed on a state of increased readiness to deploy, the Pentagon said, adding that its commitment to defend Israel was "ironclad".

Iran's leader Ayatollah Khamenei has vowed "harsh punishment" against Israel for the assassination of Haniyeh.

The Hamas leader was killed in Tehran on Wednesday. Iran and its proxy in Gaza blamed the attack on Israel, which has not commented.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cw5y5637eqdo

[firestar464]

[weatheriscool]

[firestar464]

Israeli minister says it may be ‘moral’ to starve 2 million Gazans, but ‘no one in the world would let us’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is ... r-AA1oky3l

[Cyber_Rebel]

Israeli minister says it may be ‘moral’ to starve 2 million Gazans, but ‘no one in the world would let us’

https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/is ... r-AA1oky3l

Sounds pretty genocidy, if you ask me. Surely, all of those 2 million gazans couldn't possibly be members of Hamas. There's nothing "moral" about starving people no matter the reason, even if they are your enemies, nor is there any morality in killing even if necessary. Even in cases where self-defense is warranted, and you had no choice in the matter, no sane person would claim the act of killing itself was a moral one.

[weatheriscool]

I' am starting to doubt if irans going to do anything big. They're chicken shits and know that a major war would lead to their defeat...It would literally pull The united states, Saudi Arabia and Israel into a full blown war and probably regime change.

[weatheriscool]

Harris camp shuts down talk of Israel arms embargo

A top aide to Vice President Harris said Thursday that the Democratic presidential nominee does not support an arms embargo on Israel, after the Uncommitted National Movement suggested she was open to discussing a total ban on weapons deliveries from the U.S.

Leaders of the Uncommitted National Movement, born out of opposition toward President Biden’s policy toward Israel, said Harris showed an openness to a meeting to discuss an arms embargo on Israel following a brief exchange with the group’s founders during her Wednesday campaign rally in Detroit.

However, Phil Gordon, Harris’s national security adviser, reiterated her opposition to an arms embargo in a Thursday post on the social platform X.

“@VP has been clear: she will always ensure Israel is able to defend itself against Iran and Iran-backed terrorist groups. She does not support an arms embargo on Israel. She will continue to work to protect civilians in Gaza and to uphold international humanitarian law,” he wrote.

Layla Elabed and Abbas Alawieh, founders of the Uncommitted National Movement, said in a statement responding to Gordon’s post that they remained eager to speak with Harris on the issue.

https://thehill.com/policy/internationa ... s-embargo/

[firestar464]

UGHHHH

[Yuli Ban]

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samson_Option

Obligatory:


"Israel does not possess nuclear weapons, but if needed, we will use them" - approximate quote by Golda Meir

You know, I don't believe Vladimir Putin is going to nuke Ukraine or NATO unless absolutely and irreversibly pushed against the wall (and NATO's will— and ammo— to fight is already draining too greatly to see this happen). Even if he was taken out, I doubt his replacement would immediately jump to this as well, or would probably pop off a tactical nuke as a show of force and lose control of the situation before the generals stepped in.
I don't believe India and Pakistan would go at it either. Skirmishes, yes, but nothing short of assassinating Modi would trigger an all-out war between them if the 2019 clashes and the extensive flooding in Pakistan a few years back didn't.
I don't believe China will invade Taiwan and start a nuclear war with America, and that it's almost entirely American media fanning the flames of the idea to push sinophobic attitudes and keep voters on their toes, as the Chinese seem to be thinking more long-term about the development of AI and automation (even though it comes at some rather severe short-term economic pains).

But I do have a feeling that the Israelis absolutely will use the nukes if they feel even remotely threatened. If things start going south in Israel rapidly, if it looks like the Israeli state is threatened and the West isn't doing enough to save them, they likely will pop off several megatons in the Middle East at the very least, and I would not at all be surprised if they're insane enough to shoot at Moscow, Paris, Berlin, Warsaw, and London to take as much of the Western world down with them. Hell, maybe even Beijing, New Delhi, and Tokyo if their missiles can reach that far.

The only two things I can hope for in that case:
1: Russia, China, and NATO are not on a hair-trigger response to literally any incoming nuclear warhead and can at least see where the warheads are coming from (both the US and Russia have satellites that monitor such launches 24/7, but that's not the same as "Moscow disappeared in a 200 kiloton blast, retaliatory strike protocols activate autonomously regardless of where the missiles or bombers came from").
2: If it happens, it happens AFTER we achieve and reinforce AGI well enough to survive any such event

I recall PhoenixRu related a statement to the forum from a Russian media figure saying "The world has no reason to exist if Russia is not in it." Israel has much the same point of view about themselves. The Israelis may not even need to be pushed too far to decide they've been betrayed. See, the USA is an existential threat to Russia, everyone can see that, and that's been the case for decades. There is no mutual respect or love between the two nations and might never be until some better future age when our current age of empires and hegemonic ideologism has passed on (most likely because some AI dictator has forced us to do so). But I fear everyone, Americans, Russians, British, French, Chinese, everyone, severely underestimates how much of an existential threat Israel is to EVERYONE. They view the US as attack dogs, nothing more, if not the same view as the severely illiberal master does to the slave; slavish obedience is the only correct behavior and even the most minor of disobedience deserves only the most severe retribution.

So it remains to be seen what happens next.... Hopefully, cooler heads prevail among God's Chosen People. There's little danger of flashpoints exploding in most places before the rise of AGI, except for the one in the Middle East.