WASHINGTON (AP) — Joe Biden's arrival in the White House nearly a year ago seemed to herald a historic shift toward less U.S. reliance on nuclear weapons and possibly a shrinking of their numbers. Even an American "no first use" pledge — a promise to never again be the first to use a nuclear weapon — seemed possible.
Then China happened — revelations about its expanding nuclear force and talk of potential war with Taiwan.
And then Russia happened — signs that it might be preparing to invade Ukraine.
Now, major shifts in U.S. nuclear weapons policy seem much less likely, and while Biden may insist on certain adjustments, momentum toward a historic departure from the Trump administration's policy appears to have stalled.
The outlook will be clearer when the Biden administration completes its so-called nuclear posture review — an internal relook at the numbers, kinds and purposes of weapons in the nuclear arsenal, as well as the policies that govern their potential use. The results could be made public as early as January.
Navy Expedites Waterborne Drones to Close Gap With China July 29, 2022
Introduction:
(AP via Courthouse News) — Facing a growing threat from China, the Navy envisions drone ships keeping an electronic eye on enemy forces across the vast Pacific Ocean, extending the reach of firepower, and keeping sailors out of harm’s way.
The Navy is speeding development of those robotic ships as an affordable way to keep pace with China’s growing fleet while vowing not to repeat costly shipbuilding blunders from recent years.
The four largest drone ships are being used together this summer during a multination naval exercise in the Pacific Ocean.
Other smaller waterborne drones are already being deployed by the Navy’s 5th Fleet in the waters off the Middle East.
The goal in coming years is to see how these research vessels’ radar and sensors can be combined with artificial intelligence, and integrated with traditional cruisers, destroyers, submarine and aircraft carriers, to create a networked fleet that’s resilient because it’s spread over greater distances and more difficult for enemies to destroy, the Navy says.
Danger of China’s Strategic Missteps by Collins Chong Yew Keat
August 11, 2022
Introduction:
(Eurasia Reveiw) Pelosi’s trip is used as the needed pretext for Beijing to initiate the greater strategic and bellicose actions in forcing Taiwan’s hands with starker threats and deterrence. The fierce responses are intended to intimidate and to provide direct threat and coercive tactics to force Taipei to face the harsh reality that Beijing will remain fully in control of its fate, and that Washington can only do so much in periodical terms. The largest military drills with firing of missiles and incursions of more than 100 planes are all geared as preparatory drills and tests for potential blockade and invasion, using this platform as the most useful avenue in testing the capacities to execute the full invasion option. Aggressive methods will be deemed as the new status quo, pivoting away from the sustained but controlled pressuring and grey zone tactics used, as can be seen in the decision for the drills to remain in place.
It remains provocative for Beijing to take this countermeasure disproportionately, in responding to the visit. It will only heighten the risks of missteps and miscalculation, which will then be galvanized by Beijing in pinning the blame on Washington as the first provocateur and justifying its moral and sovereign card in future potential fall-out. The six zones assigned are also meant to be a strong message to Taipei that Beijing’s military might and invasion capacity is not confined to the Taiwan Strait alone.
It signals the start of the intention by Beijing to justify its new norms of greater bellicose actions in cutting off Taiwan from the rest of the world, using means of intimidation, coercions and direct deterrence. By using Pelosi’s trip as the persistent pretense, it now gives Beijing freer hands to mount a more comprehensive and greater options on the table to exert considerable force and other cards in strengthening control and grip over Taipei.
Greater options on the table remain on Xi’s hands after his leadership consolidation, where a full scale island invasion or greater assertive moves in the region in the future will be justified by Beijing, in tracing the roots of the causes to this, among others, and will pin blame on the Americans as the provocateurs.
One thing to remember about the old Cold War was that it involved more than just two countries. Instead, it involved a rather elaborate alliance system on both sides. That being said...
U.S., Pacific Islands Agree to Bolster Ties as China's Influence Grows by Miya Tanaka
September 30, 2022
Introduction:
(Kyodo News) The United States and Pacific island nations agreed to strengthen their partnership at a summit meeting that ended Thursday, with Washington committing to $810 million in support for the region as it seeks to push back against China's growing clout.
The administration of U.S. President Joe Biden also unveiled its first-ever national strategy dedicated to the Pacific islands that warned China's "pressure and economic coercion" has the potential to undermine peace and security in the region.
"Today, security in the Pacific and for the Pacific islanders remains as critical as ever to us...and the world depends on your security," Biden said during the first-ever U.S.-Pacific Islands Summit in Washington, attended by leaders from countries including Fiji and the Solomon Islands.
China's recent outreach to the Pacific has alarmed the United States and its allies, particularly the signing of a security pact between Beijing and the Solomon Islands in April. The deal has sparked concern that it could lead to China establishing a military presence in the islands to Australia's northeast.
In the Pacific Partnership Strategy, the Biden administration indicated that "heightened geopolitical competition" had led the United States to elevate "broader and deeper engagement" with the region to a foreign policy priority.
Blind Spots in Washington’s Indo-Pacific Strategy by Paul Heer
October 31, 2022
Introduction:
(East Asia Forum via Eurasia Review) The Biden administration’s Indo-Pacific Strategy, released in February 2022, affirms that the United States will work through ‘a latticework of strong and mutually reinforcing coalitions’ to foster ‘the collective capacity’ of the region to confront 21st century challenges. To that end, Washington has played a leading role in promoting multilateral institutions and shared interests in the region.
These efforts include the Quad — a dialogue process that combines Japan, Australia, India and the United States — and AUKUS — a security agreement between Australia, the United Kingdom and the United States. In the economic realm, Washington has partnered with multiple countries in the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), as a substitute for US membership in the Comprehensive and Progressive Trans-Pacific Partnership and the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership. The Biden administration also includes the Indo-Pacific in the Build Back Better World (B3W) Partnership, an infrastructure investment program launched by the G7.
Conclusion:
There appears to be little consideration of the possibility that Beijing might share some of its neighbours’ goals or other elements of Washington’s regional agenda. US strategy focusses almost exclusively on mobilising US allies and partners, implicitly against China. Even the list of ‘prospective members’ in the US-Pacific Partnership does not include Beijing.
The United States and China, as the two most powerful countries in the world, must find ways to cooperate on key global issues for the benefit of humanity. This should apply within the Indo-Pacific as well, with both countries playing key roles in regional multilateralism in a shared pursuit of stability, prosperity, mutual benefit and peaceful coexistence.
There is no doubt that cooperation would be complicated, given the inevitable rivalry and strategic mistrust between Beijing and Washington. But the alternative of a region divided between hostile camps would almost certainly be worse. Accordingly, the United States should consider an approach to Indo-Pacific regional security that works with China rather than exclusively against it.
US Air Force to deploy nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to Australia as tensions with China grow
Source: Australian Broadcasting Corp.
The United States is preparing to deploy up to six nuclear-capable B-52 bombers to northern Australia, a provocative move experts say is aimed squarely at China.
Becca Wasser from the Centre for New American Security says putting B-52s in northern Australia is a warning to China, as fears grow Beijing is preparing for an assault on Taiwan.
"Having bombers that could range and potentially attack mainland China could be very important in sending a signal to China that any of its actions over Taiwan could also expand further," she says.
The bombers are part of a much larger upgrade of defence assets across northern Australia, including a major expansion of the Pine Gap intelligence base, which would play a vital role in any conflict with Beijing.
Not Your Grandparents’ Cold War: Why America Should Emphasize Economic Rather than Military Strategies in its Rivalry with China
by Joseph Tavares and Kori Schake
November 9, 2022
Introduction:
(Bulletin of Atomic Scientists) Scholars and policy makers often analyze the past as a means of understanding present circumstances and devising policy responses. This is, of course, a perfectly rational and prudent way to interpret current events. It is no surprise, then, that the US-China competition of 2022 has drawn comparisons to the Cold War contest between the United States and the Soviet Union. In both cases, two countries in different regions of the world, with incompatible political and economic systems and powerful militaries, compete to increase their power and influence. Yet analogizing the situations too much can actually impede the US effort to devise policies to counteract China’s rise because lessons from the Cold War may be misapplied. This risk is exacerbated by three crucial differences in these great-power contests: Today’s China is more economically powerful than the Soviet Union was; the American and Chinese economies are more intertwined now than the United States’ and Soviet Union’s ever were; and US allies today are wealthier and more militarily capable than during the Cold War.
Because of these differences, the United States should approach its rivalry with China in a way that emphasizes economics and focuses less on the types of ideological and military struggles that characterized the Cold War.
Not your grandparents’ Cold War
Starting with the differences between today’s US-China competition and the Cold War prevents one from over-emphasizing similarities.
China building cyberweapons to hijack enemy satellites, says US leak
Source: Ars Technica
MEHUL SRIVASTAVA, FELICIA SCHWARTZ, AND DEMETRI SEVASTOPULO, FT - 4/21/2023, 6:28 AM
China is building sophisticated cyber weapons to “seize control” of enemy satellites, rendering them useless for data signals or surveillance during wartime, according to a leaked US intelligence report.
The US assesses that China’s push to develop capabilities to “deny, exploit or hijack” enemy satellites is a core part of its goal to control information, which Beijing considers to be a key “war-fighting domain.”
The CIA-marked document, which was issued this year and has been reviewed by the Financial Times, was one of dozens allegedly shared by a 21-year-old US Air Guardsman in the most significant American intelligence disclosures in more than a decade.
A cyber capability of this nature would far exceed anything Russia has deployed in Ukraine, where electronic warfare teams have taken a brute-force approach with little effect.
Seagate Ffined $300 Million for Shipping 7.4 Million Hard Drives to Huawei by Jess Weatherbed
April 21 , 2023
Introduction:
(The Verge) Computing storage manufacturer Seagate has agreed to pay a $300 million penalty imposed by the US Department of Commerce (DOC) for shipping over $1.1 billion worth of hard disk drives to Huawei, violating export control restrictions. An investigation by Commerce’s Bureau of Industry and Security (BIS) determined that Seagate shipped 7.4 million hard drives to Huawei between August 2020 and September 2021 without obtaining an export license, despite a rule introduced in August 2020 that restricts sales to the Chinese company.
The $300 million penalty is the largest fine ever imposed by the BIS that isn’t tied to a criminal case. The BIS says it’s more than double Seagate’s profits in selling the hard drives.
Huawei was first placed on the Entity List, a US trade blacklist, in May 2019 amid concerns the company’s communications technology could help the Chinese government spy on American networks. These restraints were expanded in August 2020 when BIS imposed a license requirement on certain foreign-produced items made with US technology being sold to Huawei. Seagate claimed its hard drives were not subject to the restrictions (according to Reuters), and continued to do business with Huawei, becoming the company’s sole provider of HDDs.
“Even after Huawei was placed on the Entity List for conduct inimical to our national security, and its competitors had stopped selling to them due to our foreign direct product rule, Seagate continued sending hard disk drives to Huawei,” said Matthew Axelrod, Assistant Secretary for Export Enforcement.
The Global Importance of Sino-American Relations by Melvin Goodman
May 19 , 2023
Introduction:
(Counterpunch) There is no more important diplomatic relationship for the United States than its relations with China. The reverse is true for China as well. If Washington and Beijing can’t solve their political and economic issues than there will be regional instability in the Indo-Pacific region that will ripple through the world. For the global community to deal with the fundamental problems of climate change and pandemics, the two most important and powerful nations in the world must find a way to communicate and coexist. At this point in time, neither nation appears to accept or even understand the urgency of the current situation.
During the Cold War, there was a common purpose throughout much of the international arena, which allowed the United States to take the lead in confronting the Soviet Union. With the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War in 1991, the European Community lost interest in global politics and stood by as the United States overplayed its hand and routinely misused its military power in the Middle East and Southwest Asia. Our European allies were willing to allow the United States to carry out its global responsibilities as it saw fit. As long as Europe is prepared to rely on the political and military dominance of the United States, it will be difficult for the key European states to forge their own identities.
Meanwhile, China was dealing with its considerable domestic problems, and not calling attention to its incremental military buildup. China has not used military force since its ill-advised invasion of Vietnam in 1979 to “teach Vietnam a lesson.”* Ironically, it was China that learned it was not prepared for combined arms warfare and Vietnam’s battlefield experience against the French and the United States over a twenty-five-year period created serious tactical problems for the Chinese invaders.
Currently, China has been taking advantage of the U.S. preoccupation with supporting Ukraine to steal a march on Washington’s interests, particularly in the Middle East. Unlike the United States, China has avoided contentious disputes throughout the Third World in order to establish reliable state-to-state relations in the Global South.
Philippines, U.S., Japan to hold first-ever joint coast guard exercise
Source: Reuters
MANILA, May 29 (Reuters) - The coast guard of the United States, Japan and the Philippines will hold trilateral maritime exercise in the South China Sea this week, the first such manoeuvres between them as a time of growing concern about China's moves in the region.
The June 1 to 7 exercise in waters off Bataan province was as initiative of the United States and Japan, while Australia would join as an observer, said Philippine coast guard spokesman Armand Balilo said on Monday. Four Philippine vessels and one each from the United States and Japan will participate in exercises designed to improve search and rescue collaboration and law enforcement, Balilo said.
The Philippines was approached by Japan and the United States about holding joint maritime exercises in February, the same month when Manila accused China of aggressive activities in the South China Sea, vast stretches of which Beijing claims as its territory. "This is a usual routine activity among coast guard agencies," Balilo told a press conference. "There is nothing wrong with holding exercises with your counterparts."
Japan, Australia and the United States have frequently condemned China's militarisation in the South China Sea and have sought to engage closer with U.S. ally the Philippines since Ferdinand Marcos Jr took over as president last year from pro-China predecessor Rodrigo Duterte.
US confirms China has had a spy base in Cuba since at least 2019
Source: AP
By AAMER MADHANI today
WASHINGTON (AP) — China has been operating a spy base in Cuba since at least 2019, part of a global effort by Beijing to upgrade its intelligence-gathering capabilities, according to a Biden administration official.
The official, who was not authorized to comment publicly and spoke on the condition of anonymity, said the U.S. intelligence community has been aware of China’s spying from Cuba and a larger effort to set up intelligence-gathering operations around the globe for some time.
The Biden administration has stepped up efforts to thwart the Chinese push to expand its spying operations and believes it has made some progress through diplomacy and other unspecified action, according to the official, who was familiar with U.S. intelligence on the matter.
The existence of the Chinese spy base was confirmed after The Wall Street Journal reported on Thursday that China and Cuba had reached an agreement in principle to build an electronic eavesdropping station on the island. The Journal reported China planned to pay a cash-strapped Cuba billions of dollars as part of the negotiations.
Can US-China Talks Reset Fraught Relationship? by Nike Ching
June 19, 2023
Introduction:
(Voice of America via Eurasia Review) U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Chinese Foreign Minister Qin Gang held “candid” and “direct” talks in Beijing Sunday, the State Department said, as the United States and China seek to stabilize the bilateral relationship amid rising tensions.
During the seven-and-a-half hour meeting at Diaoyutai State Guesthouse, Qin accepted an invitation to come to the U.S. Agreement was also reached on more flights between the two countries.
In addition, both sides will continue to work on several issues “at a working level,” said a senior State Department official.
After Blinken’s in-person meetings with Qin, they had a working dinner later Sunday at the Diaoyutai State Guesthouse.
“The Secretary made clear that the United States will always stand up for the interests and values of the American people and work with its allies and partners to advance our vision for a world that is free, open, and upholds the international rules-based order,” said State Department spokesperson Matthew Miller in a statement.
Politico had a recent article concerning the theme of this thread. It points to recent evaluations of what would happen in a clash between China and a U.S. led alliance. The results have not been good for the U.S. Reasons for the overall weakness of the U.S, despite outspending by an enormous amount, include:
The "home field" advantage China would enjoy in envisioned war scenarios.
Diversion of resources to fight the so-called war on terror, which has included adventures in Iraq and Afghanistan.
Diversion of resources to assist the Ukraine.
The reluctance to abandon obsolete or otherwise ineffective weapons systems due to political considerations.
Exorbitant salaries and compensation packages for owners and upper management types within the military-industrial complex.
If we are going to examine growing tensions with China, then we should also examine efforts to ease those tensions.
This Week, the Biden Administration Went All In On Repairing Relations With China by Abby Vesoulis
July 9, 2023
Introduction:
(Mother Jones) US-China relations have long been tenuous, and the last two years have been no exception. There was the US diplomatic boycott of Beijing’s 2022 Winter Olympics. In August, China fired ballistic missiles after Nancy Pelosi—at the time, the Speaker of the House—visited Taiwan. Then in October, the US Commerce Department placed sweeping restrictions on China importing US-made computer chips, arguing they might be used to “commit human rights abuses.” Of course, this February, the US shot down a Chinese-operated balloon because officials believed it was spying on sensitive military sites.
But in the last few days, senior US officials have taken great, public efforts to turn things around with China, which President Joe Biden previously said is on pace to become “the most significant, consequential nation in the world” under the leadership of Chinese President Xi Jinping.
Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen spent 10 hours in meetings with Chinese officials in Beijing over the course of two recent days. Despite what she called remaining “significant disagreements,” Yellen said she and her Chinese counterparts “believe that the world is big enough for both of our countries to thrive.”
Emerging from conversations she had with the second-ranking member in the Chinese Community Party, Premier Li Qiang; China’s economic chief Vice Premier He Lifeng; finance minister Liu Kun; and People’s Bank of China chief Pan Gongsheng, Yellen said she anticipates more regular contact between US officials and their Chinese counterparts.
Her trip follows a similar one undertaken a few weeks ago by Secretary of State Antony Blinken. Later in July, John Kerry, the special presidential envoy for climate change, is expected to make his own journey in an attempt to revive climate negotiations.
Pacom Commander Believes U.S. Must Continue Modernization Of Strategic Capabilities
by C. Todd Lopez
July 20, 2023
Introduction:
(Eurasia Review) The U.S. must continue to meet the pacing challenge presented by the Chinese government’s buildup of its military capabilities, the commander of U.S. Indo-Pacific Command said.
Speaking at the Aspen Security Forum, Navy Adm. John C. Aquilino said he is concerned about of the buildup of China’s army, including its nuclear capabilities, but also that he knows the U.S. remains focused on protecting the homeland and U.S. forces. “It’s critical that the U.S. continues our modernization of our strategic capabilities,” he said. “It is the bottom-line defense of this nation through strategic nuclear deterrence. That said, the Chinese are going very quickly … what matters is that we modernize our force and we’re ready to be able to respond if need be.”
In the Indo-Pacific area of responsibility, Aquilino said the U.S. is also working to strengthen security in the region by building relationships there with partners and between partners, including with South Korea and Japan.
For instance, the USS Kentucky, a ballistic missile submarine, just yesterday made a port call in Busan, South Korea. It’s the first time a submarine of its type has visited South Korean since the 1980s.
“We have a mutual defense treaty alliance with both Japan and Korea and that means the entire … United States Armed forces is ready to support [those] alliances,” Aquilino said. “Demonstrating our willingness and our capabilities to our allies is reassuring
Japan Working with Philippines and U.S. to Protect South China Sea November 4, 2023
Introduction:
(Reuters via Asahi Shimbun) MANILA--Visiting Prime Minister Fumio Kishida said Japan, the Philippines and the United States were cooperating to protect the freedom of the South China Sea as he committed to help enhance Manila’s security capabilities.
“In the South China Sea, trilateral cooperation to protect the freedom of the sea is under way,” Kishida said in an address before the Philippine congress in the capital Manila.
Kishida and President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. agreed Nov. 3 to start negotiations on a reciprocal troop access deal to strengthen military cooperation as China becomes increasingly assertive in the region.
The Philippines and Japan, two of the United States’ closest Asian allies, have taken a strong line against what they see as aggressive behavior by Chinese vessels amid decades-old disputes over maritime sovereignty.
Last month, China and the Philippines traded accusations over a collision in the disputed waters of the South China Sea as Chinese vessels blocked Philippine boats supplying forces there.
