Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Powers]

caltrek’s comment: We are losing the war in that we are becoming more and more like what we started out fighting against.

Not the first time.

[firestar464]

Biden has violated both international and domestic law

What international and domestic laws has Biden broken? The ban on the use of cluster munitions has more to do with voluntarily signing the Convention on Cluster Munitions treaty which is not the same as a law. Neither Russia nor U.S. are signatories to this treaty.

From the article by Common Dreams:

In order to deliver the weapons to Ukraine, the Post noted, Biden is trampling on "U.S. law prohibiting the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1%."

[raklian]

Biden has violated both international and domestic law

What international and domestic laws has Biden broken? The ban on the use of cluster munitions has more to do with voluntarily signing the Convention on Cluster Munitions treaty which is not the same as a law. Neither Russia nor U.S. are signatories to this treaty.

From the article by Common Dreams:

In order to deliver the weapons to Ukraine, the Post noted, Biden is trampling on "U.S. law prohibiting the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1%."

Yes, there is a law like that but just because they're now sending cluster munitions doesn't automatically mean they're breaking that law. The article is an opinion piece written by someone who is biased against cluster munitions in general, nothing more. The U.S. military did in fact emphasize they're only sending a variant of cluster munitions that have a very low dud rate of ~2% so it's not exactly as if they're blatantly violating their restrictions.

[Doozer]

Does anyone else think that Prigozhin has given up and decided to hand himself in to Putin? Why else would he return to Russia?

[firestar464]

He's literally walking into FSB offices to get his stuff back. He's definitely not handing himself in.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

Biden has violated both international and domestic law

What international and domestic laws has Biden broken? The ban on the use of cluster munitions has more to do with voluntarily signing the Convention on Cluster Munitions treaty which is not the same as a law. Neither Russia nor U.S. are signatories to this treaty.

From the article by Common Dreams:

In order to deliver the weapons to Ukraine, the Post noted, Biden is trampling on "U.S. law prohibiting the production, use, or transfer of cluster munitions with a failure rate of more than 1%."

I hate to undermine a source that I introduced (The Washington Post via Common Dreams) Still, upon further review:

The relevant part of international humanitarian law here is 1977’s Additional Protocol I to the Geneva Conventions, which both Ukraine and Russia have ratified. The additional protocol sets out rules the warring parties must observe to limit harm to civilians. Acknowledging that civilian deaths are an inevitable part of war, Article 51 of Additional Protocol I prohibits “indiscrimate” attacks. Such attacks include those employing a weapon that cannot be directed at a specific military target or of such a nature to strike military targets and civilians and civilian objects without distinction.

Meanwhile, Article 57 of the additional protocol stresses that attacking armies have a duty of care to spare civilian populations. This includes taking “all feasible precautions in the choice of means and method of attack.”

Neither article specifies any weapons deemed off-limits. Rather, it is how the weapons are used that determines whether the attack constitutes an indiscriminate one and hence a crime under international law.

Source https://theconversation.com/there-is-no ... so-207717

The article then seems to note that some advocates argue that cluster bombs are inherently indiscriminate. Yet, a hyperlink related to that observation describes casualties at civilian locations, and not where the targets are military in nature. That hyperlinked article does not appear to make the argument of cluster bombs being inherently indiscriminate.

It should be noted that in 2021, according to Landmines and Cluster Munitions Monitor “Civilians accounted for 97% of all casualties” caused by the use of cluster munitions.

Source: http://www.the-monitor.org/media/33486 ... 2_PPT.pdf

Also of relevance is a Department of Defense Memorandum issued in November 2017. In that Memorandum:

“Cluster munitions that do not meet the standards prescribed by this policy for procuring new munitions will be removed from active inventories and demilitarized after their capabilities have been replaced by sufficient quantities of munitions that meet the standards of this policy.”
"Standards prescribed by this policy" meaning “warheads that do not result in more than one percent unexploded ordnance…”

Source: https://dod.defense.gov/Portals/1/Docu ... 15-17.pdf

[caltrek]

Kakhovka Dam Breach in Ukraine Caused Economic, Agricultural and Ecological Devastation that Will Last for Years
by Susanne Wengle and Vitalii Dankevych
July 7, 2023

Introduction:

(The Conversation) When an explosion breached the Kakhovka Dam in Ukraine on June 6, 2023, much analysis focused on near-term impacts, including the flooding of the city of Kherson, threats to the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant and consequences for Ukrainian military forces’ expected spring offensive against Russian troops.

But the most severe long-term effects will fall on Southeast Ukraine’s farmers.

Villages there were flooded. Roads, train tracks and irrigation canals were washed away. Crops in fields and orchards in the Kherson and Zaporizhzhia region were inundated, then left to shrivel after the water drained.

The long-term ecological disaster will unfold over decades to come. Crimea, once a region known for its sunny beaches and rice fields, could dry up without irrigation.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/kakhovka-d ... s-208629

[weatheriscool]

Trump says he can end war in 24 hours; Zelenskyy says Biden could in 5 minutes

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday dismissed claims by Donald Trump that he could end the war in 24 hours, saying the current GOP presidential front-runner failed to do so while president.

Zelenskyy, speaking through a translator on ABC’s “This Week," noted that Ukraine has been battling Russian proxies in the Donbas region since Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Trump served as president from 2016 to 2020.

"The sole desire to bring the war to an end is beautiful, but this desire should be based on some real-life experience," Zelenskyy said. "Donald Trump had already these 24 hours once in his time. We were at war, not a full-scale war. ... (Trump) had that time at his disposal, but he must have had some other priorities."

Trump has claimed to have a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but details on his plans to halt the war have been vague. Zelenskyy said that if Trump meant to end the war by forcing Ukraine to cede territory, "President Joe) Biden could have brought it to an end even in five minutes, but we would not agree."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putins-overw ... 51615.html

We could nuke Moscow!

[Powers]

Trump says he can end war in 24 hours; Zelenskyy says Biden could in 5 minutes

Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy on Sunday dismissed claims by Donald Trump that he could end the war in 24 hours, saying the current GOP presidential front-runner failed to do so while president.

Zelenskyy, speaking through a translator on ABC’s “This Week," noted that Ukraine has been battling Russian proxies in the Donbas region since Russia seized Crimea in 2014. Trump served as president from 2016 to 2020.

"The sole desire to bring the war to an end is beautiful, but this desire should be based on some real-life experience," Zelenskyy said. "Donald Trump had already these 24 hours once in his time. We were at war, not a full-scale war. ... (Trump) had that time at his disposal, but he must have had some other priorities."

Trump has claimed to have a close relationship with Russian President Vladimir Putin, but details on his plans to halt the war have been vague. Zelenskyy said that if Trump meant to end the war by forcing Ukraine to cede territory, "President Joe) Biden could have brought it to an end even in five minutes, but we would not agree."

https://www.yahoo.com/news/putins-overw ... 51615.html

We could nuke Moscow!

I could totally see Trump delaying Ukraine's admission, not so sure about Putin not breaking the deal though...

[weatheriscool]

Yet Another Top Russian General 'Liquidated' By Ukrainian Missile Strike
Source: Daily Beast

Russia has lost another yet another general thanks to its grinding war against Ukraine, the latest in a string of casualties caused at least in part by President Vladimir Putin’s controversial tactic of sending senior military officials to its frontlines in an attempt to boost flagging morale.

Lieutenant General Oleg Yuryevich Tsokov, who was previously sanctioned by the EU for his “participation in Russia’s war of aggression against Ukraine,” was reportedly killed in an overnight missile strike in the city of Berdyansk.

Anton Gerashchenko, advisor to the Minister of Internal Affairs of Ukraine, confirmed the news on Twitter Tuesday.
...
It was reported earlier this year that at least 20 Russian generals had been killed in the conflict already, according to Japanese intelligence figures.

Read more: https://www.thedailybeast.com/russian-g ... ile-strike

[Vector]

I hope Zelenskyy is just posturing and that negotiations can result in him backing down from this position in exchange for other concessions.

All negotiations are conducted like this: demand more and you will get what you need.

I can’t see Russia agreeing to this unless they are totally defeated on the battlefield. Even then, it would be a great humiliation that would be a matter of long-standing resentment.

And what?? If this does not happen, then the NATO bloc and the European Union will show their weakness and cowardice by taking a step towards their death.

Russia has always been at war, it has never needed the well-being of its citizens, for the sake of its power and greatness, it will sacrifice everything.

As Putil said: "Russia has the right to be strong"

As I understand it, Crimea is and was inhabited largely by ethnic Russians. It is one thing to assert Ukrainian identity in the face of Russian aggression, quite another to insist on control of territory largely of Russian cultural orientation.

Of course, after all, Stalin took the entire population (of the Crimean Tatars) to Siberia.



P.S. The truth is always on the side of the strong.

[caltrek]

As I understand it, Crimea is and was inhabited largely by ethnic Russians. It is one thing to assert Ukrainian identity in the face of Russian aggression, quite another to insist on control of territory largely of Russian cultural orientation.

Of course, after all, Stalin took the entire population (of the Crimean Tatars) to Siberia.

I suppose I should have inserted a statement after my first sentence that said something like "At least that was the case after the expulsion of the Crimean Tatars in 1944." Thank you for calling attention to that aspect of Crimean history.

[Vector]

[caltrek]

Russia’s Kerch Strait Bridge Has Been Badly Damaged
by Howard Altman
Updated July 17, 2023

Introduction:

(The Drive) The Kerch Bridge, connecting Russia and the Crimean Peninsula has been closed after an incident in which portions of the bridge were damaged, according to Russian officials. Those officials are not saying what caused the damage, but Russian Telegram channels say the bridge was attacked by Ukraine.

If true, that would mark the second time since October that Vladimir Putin’s prized $4 billion span has been attacked. The bridge was previously struck in October.

Read more here, including Twitter feeds: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... incident

[caltrek]

European Court of Human Rights Trashes Abandoned Russian Complaint Over Ukraine
by Molly Quell
July 18, 2023

Introduction:

(Courthouse News) — The European Court of Human Rights tossed out a case against Ukraine on Tuesday, citing Russia’s failure to pursue the discrimination complaint it launched two years ago.

Moscow brought the suit in 2021, accusing Kyiv of killing and abducting Russian nationals living in Ukraine, barring them from voting, restricting the use of the Russian language, and causing the deaths of the 298 people who died on passenger jet Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. Since last year, however, the country has not replied to communication from the Strasbourg-based court about the case.

“In the light of … the Russian Government’s repeated failure to reply to the Court’s correspondence and to inform it whether they intend to pursue the application, the Court considers that the Russian Government should be regarded as no longer wishing to pursue their application,” the seven-judge panel wrote Tuesday.

Because the judges have also found little evidence for Russia’s allegations, they concluded that no grounds exist for the examination to continue.

The rights court is overseen by the Council of Europe. Although that body expelled Russia from its ranks upon the Kremlin's full-scale invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, the court's procedures allowed Russia’s complaint to continue even after its removal.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/rights- ... ukraine/

[raklian]

Cluster munitions provided by US has already been deployed by Ukraine.

[weatheriscool]

[caltrek]

^^^ Reasonable from the Ukrainian perspective. Infuriating from the Russian perspective.

These people really need to get all of this ironed out at the negotiating table. Too bad none of us are privy to all the negotiations that may (or may not) be going on.

[firestar464]

Is this legal?