Ukraine War Watch Thread

[caltrek]

The Longest Battle of the Ukraine War Might Finally be Over
by Jen Kirby
May 22, 2023

Introduction:

(Vox) Russia has claimed control of Bakhmut, a city at the center of one of the most prolonged and brutal battles of the war in Ukraine. Moscow is declaring it a major victory, but it is one that comes at an astounding cost. And exactly what the city’s capture means for the future course of the conflict is far less clear.

Bakhmut holds limited strategic value, though the approximately nine-month-long battle took on political and rhetorical significance for both sides. It also imposed real losses, as the battle for control of the city mutually attrited Russian and Ukrainian forces and firepower.

Over the weekend, Russia’s Ministry of Defense announced that Russia had finally taken Bakhmut, and Russian President Vladimir Putin celebrated the “liberation” of the city. Both credited the Wagner Group, the paramilitary group tied to the increasingly vocal oligarch Yevgeny Prigozhin, for its role in the operation.

Ukrainian military and defense officials, meanwhile, insisted all was not lost, and that Ukrainian forces were still controlling parts of Bakhmut and fighting continued in the suburban outskirts. “Despite the fact that we now control a small part of Bakhmut, the importance of its defense does not lose its relevance,” said General Oleksandr Syrsky, commander of Ukraine’s ground forces, according to a Telegram post from Ukraine’s General Staff and reported in the New York Times.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, who spent the weekend at the G-7 summit in Hiroshima, Japan, shoring up support for Ukraine, told reporters that he did not think Russia had taken Bakhmut, but said, “You have to understand that there is nothing. They’ve destroyed everything. There are no buildings.”

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/world-politics/202 ... offensive

[caltrek]

British arms exports doubled during 2022 to a record £8.5bn according to the only publicly available official figures, reflecting escalating geopolitical uncertainties and fallout from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
The largest destination for UK-made weaponry was Qatar, which bought £2.7bn-worth, and 54% went to countries designated as “not free” by the human rights group Freedom House. These include Saudi Arabia and Turkey, as well as Qatar.

The Guardian.

It feels good to help Ukraine. (and freedom and democracy).

It is not just a matter of feeling good. It is also a matter of safety in numbers and the benefits of a one for all and all for one approach to defense.

Having said that, I continue to believe that the best solution is a negotiated end to the conflict. For this to happen, both sides would need some amount of good faith in their negotiation efforts. For its part, the impression I receive is that offers to negotiate are taken by Russia as a sign of weakness and therefore become an act of futility. At least until success in the battlefield is obtained.

Of course, it is possible that the West, including the United States, could have done more to encourage a negotiated settlement. A lot depends upon what has gone on behind the scenes. These are things to which we may not be privy. So, there is some hesitancy on my part to come to any definitive conclusion.

[weatheriscool]

Wagner chief warns Russians could revolt if invasion continues to struggle
CNN
—

A new “revolution” could rock Russia if its stuttering war effort in Ukraine continues, the chief of private military group Wagner has said, in a scathing assessment of Moscow’s military readiness that could further expose divisions in Russian President Vladimir Putin’s military hierarchy.

Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Russian blogger, that Moscow’s troops are unprepared to resist forces loyal to Kyiv even when they enter Russian territory.

He also praised the capabilities of the Ukrainian army, and urged Moscow to escalate its war effort if it wants to avoid a long and costly conflict.

“I believe Ukrainians today are one of the strongest armies in the world,” Prigozhin said. He called Kyiv’s forces “highly organized, highly trained and their intelligence is on the highest level, they can operate any military system with equal success, a Soviet or a NATO one.”

Snip

https://edition.cnn.com/2023/05/24/euro ... index.html

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine says it shot down 36 drones in overnight Russian attacks
Source: Reuters

Ukraine said on Thursday it had shot down all 36 Iranian-made drones launched by Russia in overnight attacks which it said probably targeted critical infrastructure and military facilities.

President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said it had been an "uneasy night" but commended the work of air defences.

"Continuing to terrorise Ukraine, the enemy used 36 Shahed (drones). None of them reached their target. Thanks to our air defence forces for the 100% result," he wrote on the Telegram messaging app.

Since last October, Moscow, which launched its full-scale invasion in February last year, has regularly sent waves of drones to attack targets in Ukraine. Although they are slow, drones are cheaper and more expendable than advanced missiles.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/uk ... 023-05-25/

[ibm9000]

...approximately 35% of Ukraine’s population is estimated to be suffering from insufficient food consumption.

RUSI.

That is a strange way to win war.

[weatheriscool]

Russia's Wagner boss says more than 20,000 of his troops died in Bakhmut battle
Source: AP

Susie Blann 46 minutes ago

KYIV, Ukraine (AP) — The head of the Russian private army Wagner says his force lost more than 20,000 fighters in the drawn-out battle for Bakhmut, with about 20% of the 50,000 Russian convicts he recruited to fight in the 15-month war dying in the eastern Ukrainian city.

The figure was in stark contrast with claims from Moscow that it lost just over 6,000 troops in the war, and is higher than the official estimate of the Soviet losses in the Afghanistan war of 15,000 troops between 1979-89. Ukraine hasn’t said how many of its soldiers have died since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022.

Analysts believe the nine-month fight for Bakhmut alone have cost the lives of tens of thousands of soldiers, among them convicts who reportedly received little training before being sent to the front.

Russia’s invasion goal of “demilitarizing” Ukraine has backfired because Kyiv’s military has become stronger with the supply of weapons and training by its Western allies, Wagner chief Yevgeny Prigozhin said in an interview published late Tuesday with Konstantin Dolgov, a pro-Kremlin political strategist.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 562ada0e2c

If Russia is deserving of the power it gets worldwide then Ukraine also is. Ukraine is a military world power!!!

[ibm9000]

"Dead" and "casualties", losses... are not the same thing.

(I am happy to know that you believe everything he says).

[caltrek]

One of the themes of this thread concerns the more technical aspects of the war in the Ukraine. Questions such as what new military hardware is being introduced, what older hardware is being battle tested in a new way or in a new environment, etc. It is not a favorite topic for discussion for me. For those who do have an interest, the provided link has a fairly technical discussion of the relative air power of the Ukraine and Russia as manifested in this conflict:

https://www.eurasiareview.com/27052023- ... analysis/

[weatheriscool]

[ibm9000]

Would a tighter China-Russia relationship be a victory for US?

An alliance is impossible, but is this an intended side effect of western policy on the war in Ukraine?

[caltrek]

A Very Simple Request
by Boris Kagarlitsky as translated by Dan Erdman
May 23 , 2023

Introduction:

(Counterpunch) A long-retired Russian military man was discussing current events by phone with a former colleague living in Ukraine. Both resented the war between the two recently fraternal countries and expressed the hope that this madness would soon end. A few days later, representatives of the special services raided the Russian. He did not give out any military secrets, and no one accused him of this. He was charged, however, with publicly discrediting the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation. In turn, the former officer, who knew the laws, objected that the conversation had been a private one. And such a charge was meant to apply to public statements only. “But it was public,” objected the intelligence officers. “After all, we heard it!”

This is not a fragment from a story written by a modern imitator of Franz Kafka or George Orwell, but news that is now being discussed on Russian social networks. There you can also find numerous reports of fines imposed on people who had inadvertently painted their fence yellow and blue many years ago, now risking undesirable associations with the Ukrainian flag, or who thoughtlessly went out into the street in blue jeans and a yellow jacket. It got to the point that the police considered writing a denunciation on a box of apples. The fruits were guilty of the fact that the same “enemy colors” were present in the package.

Conclusion:

And from the Western progressive public, we only need one thing – stop helping Putin with your conciliatory and ambiguous statements. The more often such statements are made, the greater will be the confidence of officials, deputies and policemen that the current order can continue to exist with the silent support or hypocritical grumbling of the West. Every conciliatory statement made by liberal intellectuals in America results in more arrests, fines, and searches of democratic activists and just plain people here in Russia.

We do not need any favor but a very simple one: an understanding of the reality that has developed in Russia today. Stop identifying Putin and his gang with Russia. Realize at last: those who want the good of Russia and the Russians cannot but be irreconcilable enemies of this power.

Read more here: https://www.counterpunch.org/2023/05/2 ... atements

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

A 99% tweet...

I am sure he is an explosive expert and he has been testing all available remains in his own high-end lab.

(Pity he is not working on cancer).

[wjfox]

Ukraine war: Dashcam captures moment missile debris falls onto Kyiv street

59 minutes ago

Dashcam footage appears to show the moment missile debris crashed down on a street in Ukraine's capital, Kyiv.

The incident happened on 29 May and came during a rare daytime attack on the city. No injuries were reported.

The way the missile falls suggests it was intercepted by air defences before it could reach its target. The BBC matched the dashcam footage to footage from a nearby security camera and photographs in media reports.

The fragments were later collected by police for further investigation.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-65763731

[ibm9000]

Today, a US Navy Northrop F-5N crashed into the sea off Key West, Florida. The pilot successfully ejected using the recently upgraded Martin-Baker US16J Seat.

The Drive.

An Ukrainian missile, I guess. I mean, every time a plane goes down is an Ukrainian missile, right? The Spanish F18, another missile... or all Spanish pilots are incompetent, all NATO pilots? Well, maybe is that F18s are just garbage. Should I wait for a tweet to confirm it? ...99%?

[ibm9000]

It seems that the BBC's "intercepted missile" is a Patriot coming down.
Expectation tended to outrun execution. ACW.

Ukraine will get 30 millions small arms rounds from US. Can we call this (future) offensive a NATO offensive? What war would this be without those bullets, what offensive?
By the way, the most decorated Australian soldier is a war criminal. War implies war criminals, in the real world, in History, always.

[caltrek]

It seems that the BBC's "intercepted missile" is a Patriot coming down.
Expectation tended to outrun execution. ACW.

Ukraine will get 30 millions small arms rounds from US. Can we call this (future) offensive a NATO offensive? What war would this be without those bullets, what offensive?
...

I believe the proper term would be counteroffensive. As in an act of self-defense.

As far as I can see, the main thing that "Russia" has been defending is the right to be led by an autocratic kleptocrat who behaves like a mob boss. The handful of Russians that I have encountered who have immigrated to the United States would tend to agree with that assessment of Putin. Of course, there are those who will insist on continuing with their false equivalencies and what-about-isms that go back fifty years or more. With those, I can only continue to agree to disagree.

[caltrek]

By the way, the most decorated Australian soldier is a war criminal. War implies war criminals, in the real world, in History, always.

I will allow that to stand as it is brief and clearly related to the topic at hand (although perhaps suffering from what some might complain as being another what-about-ism). I would remind you and others that we do have a thread concerning Australia and Oceania news and discussion, so further elaboration and debate concerning Ibm9000's point should be made in that thread, or in an appropriate thread in the History Forum.

[ibm9000]

There is a "counteroffensive" if there is an offensive. When was the last time we had anything bigger than "limited attacks"? (Attack/counterattack not offensive/defensive war.

Australia and Oceania...

Unless you use the war part. (This one is just another war, we shouldn't be surprised about the things that happen in a war; any war).

[caltrek]

There is a "counteroffensive" if there is an offensive. When was the last time we had anything bigger than "limited attacks"? (Attack/counterattack not offensive/defensive war.

Australia and Oceania...

Unless you use the war part. (This one is just another war, we shouldn't be surprised about the things that happen in a war; any war).

We shall have lost something as a species if we are neither surprised or disgusted by "the things that happen in a war."

The best outcome in any conflict is that it is resolved peacefully. The next best is if war fare is confined to military contestants. The worst is when a deliberate tactic of terrorizing a civilian population is employed. To fail to distinguish between the two latter outcomes is an exercise in false equivalency.