The need to increase the debt limit1 has focused attention on the size and trajectory of the federal debt. Long-term projections show2 that federal debt as a percentage of the U.S. economy is on a path to grow indefinitely, with increased noninterest spending due to demographic changes such as increasing life expectancy, declining fertility, and decreased immigration and rising health care costs permanently outstripping revenues under projections based on current law. House Republican leaders have used this fact to call for spending cuts,3 but it does not address the true cause of rising debt: Tax cuts initially enacted during Republican trifectas in the past 25 years slashed taxes disproportionately for the wealthy and profitable corporations, severely reducing federal revenues. In fact, relative to earlier projections, spending is down, not up. But revenues are down significantly more. If not for the Bush tax cuts4 and their extensions5—as well as the Trump tax cuts6—revenues would be on track to keep pace with spending indefinitely, and the debt ratio (debt as a percentage of the economy) would be declining. Instead, these tax cuts have added $10 trillion to the debt since their enactment and are responsible for 57 percent of the increase in the debt ratio since 2001, and more than 90 percent of the increase in the debt ratio if the one-time costs of bills responding to COVID-19 and the Great Recession are excluded. Eventually, the tax cuts are projected to grow to more than 100 percent of the increase.
Fiscal policy in the postwar era
In the 34 years after 1946, the federal debt declined from 106 percent of gross domestic product (GDP) to just 25 percent, despite the federal government’s running deficits in 26 of those years. The debt ratio declined for two reasons. First, the government ran a “primary,” or noninterest, surplus in a large majority of those years. This means that, not counting interest payments, the budget was in surplus. Second, the economic growth rate exceeded the Treasury interest rate in a large majority of those years. These two factors—along with the starting debt ratio—are the levers that control debt ratio sustainability.7 With a primary balance, the growth rate need only match the Treasury interest rate for the debt ratio to be stable. The presence of both primary surpluses and growth rates that exceeded the Treasury interest rate created significant downward pressure on the debt ratio.8
The nation’s fiscal pictured changed in 1981 when President Ronald Reagan enacted the largest tax cut in U.S. history,9 reducing revenues by the equivalent of $19 trillion over a decade in today’s terms. Although Congress raised taxes10 in many of the subsequent years of the Reagan administration to claw back close to half the revenue loss,11 the equivalent of $10 trillion of the president’s 1981 tax cut remained.
These massive tax cuts set off more than a decade of bipartisan efforts to reduce spending and increase revenues, which, along with a booming economy, resulted in budget surpluses at the end of the Clinton administration.
Idaho Is About To Become The First State To Restrict Interstate Travel For Abortion
[N]ow Idaho Republicans have set their sights on hindering certain residents from traveling out of state to get an abortion.
House Bill 242, which passed through the state House and is likely to move quickly through the Senate, seeks to limit minors’ ability to travel for abortion care without parental consent. The legislation would create a whole new crime — dubbed “abortion trafficking” — which is defined in the bill as an “adult who, with the intent to conceal an abortion from the parents or guardian of a pregnant, unemancipated minor, either procures an abortion … or obtains an abortion-inducing drug” for the minor. “Recruiting, harboring, or transporting the pregnant minor within this state commits the crime of abortion trafficking,” the legislation adds.
The legislation doesn’t actually say anything about crossing state lines, but Republican lawmakers are creative. Most pregnant people in Idaho are not traveling to obtain an abortion elsewhere in the state, since nearly all abortions are illegal in Idaho; they’re traveling to the border with the intent of crossing state lines, likely into Washington, Oregon or Montana, to get an abortion there.
“Technically, they’re not criminalizing people driving in Washington state with a minor. The crime is the time that someone is driving the minor in Idaho,” said David Cohen, a law professor at Philadelphia’s Drexel University whose work focuses on constitutional law and abortion policy.
“They’re going to say what they’re doing is just criminalizing actions that take place completely within Idaho, but in practice what they’re criminalizing is the person helping the minor,” Cohen, who also litigates abortion-related cases with the Women’s Law Project nonprofit, told HuffPost.
State Rep. Barbara Ehardt (R), one of the sponsors of the abortion trafficking bill, said plainly that the intent of the legislation is to limit minors’ ability to travel out of state without parental consent.
“It’s already illegal to get an abortion here in the state of Idaho,” she told HuffPost. “So, it would be taking that child across the border, and if that happens without the permission of the parent, that’s where we’ll be able to hold accountable those that would subvert a parent’s right.”
RALEIGH, N.C. (AP) — North Carolina residents can now buy a handgun without getting a permit from a local sheriff, after the Republican-controlled state legislature on Wednesday overrode the Democratic governor’s veto — a first since 2018.
The House voted 71-46 to enact the bill, which eliminates the longstanding permit system requiring sheriffs to perform character evaluations and criminal history checks of pistol applicants. The Senate overrode Democratic Gov. Roy Cooper’s veto in a party-line vote on Tuesday.
The permit repeal takes effect immediately. Cooper and Democratic lawmakers warned it allows more dangerous people to obtain weapons through private sales, which do not require a background check, and limits law enforcement’s ability to prevent them from committing violent crimes.
But bill supporters say the sheriff screening process is no longer necessary in light of significant updates to the national background check system, and that the permit requirement didn’t serve as a crime deterrent.
Grand Jury Votes to Indict Donald Trump in New York: Live Updates
Source: New York Times
A Manhattan grand jury voted to indict Donald J. Trump on Thursday for his role in paying hush money to a porn star, according to four people with knowledge of the matter, a historic development that will shake up the 2024 presidential race and forever mark him as the nation's first former president to face criminal charges.
The felony indictment, filed under seal by the Manhattan district attorney's office, will likely be announced in the coming days. By then, prosecutors working for the district attorney, Alvin L. Bragg, will have asked Mr. Trump to surrender and to face arraignment on charges that remain unknown for now.
Mr. Trump has for decades avoided criminal charges despite persistent scrutiny and repeated investigations, creating an aura of legal invincibility that the vote to indict now threatens to puncture. His actions surrounding his 2020 electoral defeat are now the focus of a separate federal investigation, and a Georgia prosecutor is in the final stages of an investigation into Mr. Trump's attempts to reverse the election results in that state.
But unlike the investigations that arose from his time in the White House, this case is built around a tawdry episode that predates Mr. Trump's presidency. The reality star turned presidential candidate who shocked the political establishment by winning the White House now faces a reckoning for a hush money payment that buried a sex scandal in the final days of the 2016 campaign.
Introduction and summary
The need to increase the debt limit1 has focused attention on the size and trajectory of the federal debt. Long-term projections show2 that federal debt as a percentage of the U.S. economy is on a path to grow indefinitely, with increased noninterest spending due to demographic changes such as increasing life expectancy, declining fertility, and decreased immigration and rising health care costs permanently outstripping revenues under projections based on current law. House Republican leaders have used this fact to call for spending cuts,3 but it does not address the true cause of rising debt: Tax cuts initially enacted during Republican trifectas in the past 25 years slashed taxes disproportionately for the wealthy and profitable corporations, severely reducing federal revenues. In fact, relative to earlier projections, spending is down, not up. But revenues are down significantly more. If not for the Bush tax cuts4 and their extensions5—as well as the Trump tax cuts6—revenues would be on track to keep pace with spending indefinitely, and the debt ratio (debt as a percentage of the economy) would be declining. Instead, these tax cuts have added $10 trillion to the debt since their enactment and are responsible for 57 percent of the increase in the debt ratio since 2001, and more than 90 percent of the increase in the debt ratio if the one-time costs of bills responding to COVID-19 and the Great Recession are excluded. Eventually, the tax cuts are projected to grow to more than 100 percent of the increase.
"The Republican leadership of Tennessee's House of Representative stripped state Rep. Gloria Johnson, D-Knoxville, of her committee assignments April 3 in retaliation for her peaceful participation in last week’s demonstration for gun reform that spilled over to the House floor March 30, Knox News has learned.
...
Hundreds of demonstrators came to the Capitol in Nashville in response to what they said was lawmakers’ inaction after a gunman killed six people, including three 9-year-old students, at The Covenant School in Nashville on March 27.
After a Nashville news conference with Gov. Bill Lee and other lawmakers, House Speaker Cameron Sexton, R-Crossville, confirmed that Johnson and Rep. Justin Jones, D-Nashville, had been stripped of their committee assignments. A third member, Justin Pearson, D-Memphis, did not serve on any committees.
Other sanctions, including expulsion, will be considered, Sexton said.
....
Johnson stood with freshmen Jones and Pearson when they took over the well of the House chamber and began chanting through a megaphone.
The demonstration remained peaceful throughout – there was no property damage or arrests made, according to the Tennessee Highway Patrol.
Monday, hundreds of demonstrators came back to the Capitol. In one clip, posted on Twitter by Johnson, the demonstrators chanted "thoughts and prayers are not enough."
...
Sexton and other House Republicans have taken to the airwaves and social media to inaccurately compare the event to the attack on the U.S. Capitol, which left scores of police officers injured and resulted in millions of dollars of damage, even though the Tennessee Highway Patrol there was no damage or injuries of a result of the demonstration." (More)
Gov. Whitmer signs repeal of Michigan abortion ban
Source: WNDU
BIRMINGHAM, Mich. (WNDU) - Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer has signed a bill repealing the state’s 1931 abortion ban.
Michigan had a law from 1931 on the books banning abortion without exceptions for rape or incest. It also allowed doctors and nurses who offer reproductive care to be prosecuted.
The bill signing comes after Michiganders turned out in record numbers to get Proposal 3 on the ballot and voted to enshrine reproductive freedom into the state constitution after the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade.
Whitmer was joined by doctors, reproductive rights advocates, and lawmakers on Wednesday morning in Birmingham for the historic bill signing.
Tennessee GOP expels first Democratic lawmaker over gun violence protests
Republican lawmakers in Tennessee voted Thursday to expel the first of three Democratic legislators from the state House over their protests on the chamber floor against gun violence.
The rare move drew attention across the nation to the partisan divisions that have rankled the Tennessee Legislature in recent months.
Over the cacophony of protesters outside the state House, Republican legislators began expulsion proceedings against Democratic Reps. Justin Jones, Gloria Johnson and Justin Pearson.
Republicans first moved to expel on Jones, with votes on the other two Democrats expected later in the day.
“What is happening here today is a situation in which the jury has already publicly announced the verdict,” Jones said during a speech he was granted to defend himself ahead of the vote. “A lynch mob assembled to not lynch me, but our democratic process.”
Tennessee House Expels 2 Democrats Over Gun Reform Protest
Source: Forbes
Tennessee’s GOP-controlled House of Representatives voted Thursday to expel two Democratic members for participating in a contentious gun reform protest in the State House last week, but failed to expel a third Democrat—marking the chamber’s first expulsions in years.
Tennessee’s House voted 72-25 to expel Democratic Rep. Justin Jones, and voted 73-23 to expel Rep. Justin Pearson, after the three lawmakers faced scrutiny from their peers after protesting for gun reform on the floor of the House chamber.
A vote to expel Democratic Rep. Gloria Johnson was just one vote shy of meeting the two-thirds majority needed to expel a representative, with 65 representatives voting in favor of the measure and 30 voting against it—Johnson, who is white, later told reporters she believes the difference in the vote count “might have to do with the color of our skin” (Jones and Johnson are Black).
A special election will be held to fill the empty House seats, though the expelled representatives can also run and return to office.
Clarence Thomas Defends Undisclosed “Family Trips” With GOP Megadonor. Here Are the Facts. by Joshua Kaplan, Justin Elliott and Alex Mierjeski
April 7, 2023
Introduction:
(ProPublica) In a rare public statement, Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas responded Friday to a ProPublica report that revealed that Thomas has, for decades, accepted luxury travel from billionaire Republican megadonor Harlan Crow and failed to disclose it.
Thomas’ brief statement acknowledges joining Crow and his wife, who he described as among his “dearest friends,” on “a number of family trips” over the years. He also defended his failure to disclose them.
“Early in my tenure at the Court, I sought guidance from my colleagues and others in the judiciary, and was advised that this sort of personal hospitality from close personal friends, who did not have business before the Court, was not reportable,” Thomas said in the statement. “I have endeavored to follow that counsel throughout my tenure, and have always sought to comply with the disclosure guidelines.”
But seven legal ethics experts consulted by ProPublica, including former ethics lawyers for Congress and the White House, said the law clearly requires that gifts of transportation, including private jet flights, be disclosed. If Thomas is arguing otherwise, the experts said, he is incorrect.
Ousted Tennessee legislator Justin Jones reinstated after Nashville council vote
Source: NBC News
The Nashville Metropolitan Council on Monday voted to return Justin Jones to the state Legislature after he was removed last week by Republicans for protesting gun violence on the House floor.
The 36 council members present at Monday’s meeting unanimously supported reinstating Jones as a state legislator. The council had suspended its own rules to allow an immediate vote on Jones’ seat instead of holding a monthlong nomination period. Less than an hour later, Jones was sworn in on the steps of the state Capitol.
“Today we send a resounding message that democracy will not be killed in the cover of silence,” Jones said, speaking in front of the Tennessee State Capitol after the vote. “This is not about one person, it’s not about one position, it’s about a movement.”
Jones and fellow Democrat Justin J. Pearson, who are both Black, were expelled on Thursday in House votes that drew national attention to racial dynamics in the state’s top legislative body.
28 Children Rescued, 59 Adults Arrested in Massive DFW Child Porn Investigation
More than two dozen children have been rescued and nearly 60 people are facing criminal charges related to online sexual abuse and exploitation of children, police say.
The North Texas Internet Crimes Against Children Task Force and FBI Dallas Division’s Child Exploitation Task Force said Friday that from Jan. 16 through Feb. 10 highly skilled computer crimes investigators from agencies around North Texas took part in Operation Janus, an effort to identify and rescue children forced into sexual acts and arrest the abusers who were trafficking images and videos of those acts online.
The operation wrapped up Friday with the rescue of 28 children and the arrest of 59 people who are now facing at least 80 criminal charges. The investigation involved nearly three dozen law enforcement agencies from across North Texas and from as far away as Alaska
TALLAHASSEE, Fla. — Gov. Ron DeSantis late Thursday night signed Florida’s six-week abortion ban into law just hours after the GOP-led Legislature approved it.
The legislation will upend Florida’s status as an abortion haven in the south, cutting off access for thousands who would otherwise travel from neighboring states each year for the procedure.
DeSantis announced the signing on Facebook and Twitter at around 11 p.m. A photo accompanying the Facebook and Twitter posts shows the Republican governor signing the legislation surrounded by more than two dozen people.
"Signed the Heartbeat Protection Act, which expands pro-life protections and devotes resources to help young mothers and families," DeSantis wrote on social media.
DeSantis is preparing for a likely presidential bid and has been steadfast in his support for limiting abortion.
The Florida House approved the bill, S.B. 300, on a 70-40 vote on Thursday. The state Senate approved it last week.
The six-week ban will help DeSantis show conservative voters in a primary contest that he’s solidly anti-abortion, but it also carries big risks in a general election. Republicans overall underperformed during the 2022 midterm elections, in part because Democrats andswing voters turned out in response to the high court’s abortion ruling.
Florida now joins at least 12 other states — including Georgia, Iowa, Kentucky and Louisiana — that have approved bans on abortions after six weeks, a point at which many people don’t yet know they’re pregnant. The Florida legislation provides exceptions for victims of rape, incest and human trafficking up to 15 weeks as long as they provide proof such as a police report. At least 13 other states have enacted near-total bans on the procedure.
Billionaire Harlan Crow Bought Property from Clarence Thomas. The Justice Didn’t Disclose the Deal. by Justin Elliott, Joshua Kaplan and Alex Mierjeski
April 13, 2023
Introduction:
(ProPublica) In 2014, one of Texas billionaire Harlan Crow’s companies purchased a string of properties on a quiet residential street in Savannah, Georgia. It wasn’t a marquee acquisition for the real estate magnate, just an old single-story home and two vacant lots down the road. What made it noteworthy were the people on the other side of the deal: Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas and his relatives.
The transaction marks the first known instance of money flowing from the Republican megadonor to the Supreme Court justice. The Crow company bought the properties for $133,363 from three co-owners — Thomas, his mother and the family of Thomas’ late brother, according to a state tax document and a deed dated Oct. 15, 2014, filed at the Chatham County courthouse.
The purchase put Crow in an unusual position: He now owned the house where the justice’s elderly mother was living. Soon after the sale was completed, contractors began work on tens of thousands of dollars of improvements on the two-bedroom, one-bathroom home, which looks out onto a patch of orange trees. The renovations included a carport, a repaired roof and a new fence and gates, according to city permit records and blueprints.
A federal disclosure law passed after Watergate requires justices and other officials to disclose the details of most real estate sales over $1,000.
Thomas never disclosed his sale of the Savannah properties. That appears to be a violation of the law, four ethics law experts told ProPublica.
The disclosure form Thomas filed for that year also had a space to report the identity of the buyer in any private transaction, such as a real estate deal. That space is blank.
Democratic Senator Sheldon Whitehouse Says Clarence Thomas Should Be Referred to US Attorney General Jake Johnson
April 14, 2023
Introduction:
(Common Dreams) Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse on Thursday urged the top policymaking body for U.S. federal courts to refer Supreme Court Justice Clarence Thomas to the attorney general, citing the lack of immediate action from the high court amid fresh evidence that the right-wing judge violated disclosure laws.
"It would be best for the chief justice to commence a proper investigation, but after a week of silence from the court and the latest disturbing reporting, I'm urging the Judicial Conference to step in and refer Justice Thomas to the attorney general for investigation," the Rhode Island Democrat said in a statement.
Supreme Court lifts abortion pill restrictions for now
Source: CNBC
U.S. Supreme Court Justice Samuel Alito on Friday temporarily blocked lower court rulings that imposed tighter restrictions on the abortion pill mifepristone. U.S. Judge Matthew Kacsmaryk of the U.S. Northern District of Texas suspended the Food and Drug Administration’s approval of mifepristone last week.
The U.S. 5th Circuit Court of Appeals blocked that part of Kacsmaryk’s order and kept the FDA approval in place. But the appeals court temporarily re-imposed tighter restrictions on how mifepristone is used and distributed, which would make it more difficult for women to access the drug. Alito blocked those rulings restricting mifepristone access until 11:59 p.m. Wednesday.
The Supreme Court, which has a 6-3 conservative majority, will next decide whether to continue blocking the restrictions on mifepristone as the Biden administration’s appeal plays out. But the court could also vote to put the limits back in place as the appeal is resolved.
The ultimate outcome of the national legal battle over mifepristone could sharply limit access to the medication, even in states where abortion remains legal. Mifepristone, used in combination with another drug called misoprostol, is the most common method to terminate a pregnancy in the U.S., accounting for about half of all abortions.
A federal judge has blocked Biden's clean water rule in 24 states
Source: CNBC
A federal judge on Wednesday blocked a Biden administration rule that would expand federal protections for hundreds of thousands of rivers, lakes, streams, wetlands and other waterways in 24 states.
Judge Daniel Hovland of the U.S. District Court for the District of North Dakota issued a temporary preliminary injunction to halt enforcement of the “waters of the United States” rule, which more broadly defines which types of waterways are eligible for federal water-quality protections under the 1972 Clean Water Act.
The Biden administration’s clean water rule, issued in 2022, repealed a Trump-era rule that federal courts rejected and that environmental groups argued left waterways open to pollution. The Environmental Protection Agency and the Department of the Army said the revised rule is based on definitions that were in place before 2015, when the Obama administration sought to expand federal protections.
Republican-led states, along with farming groups, oil and gas producers, and real estate developers, have argued the rule is harmful to business and agriculture interests and is an example of federal overreach. White House officials and environmental groups have argued that loosening federal water protections would harm sources of safe drinking water across the country. Federally protected waters qualify for government programs that focus on maintaining water quality and combating pollution, among other things.
McCarthy's latest idea is to slash food aid to poor families, including children
According to those that have seen McCarthy's plan, the Republicans claim there are "loopholes" that are allowing people to buy things they don't like. The reality is that SNAP benefits make up just 1.9 percent of the federal budget, said the Center for Economic and Policy Research. It helps elderly seniors, people with disabilities, and families with children, the Center on Budget and Policy Priorities explained. "Children under age 18 constitute nearly half (44 percent) of all SNAP participants."
Politico reported Sunday that McCarthy's latest idea is to slash food aid to poor families, including children. Still, it's not sitting well with Republican colleagues who are likely aware of the inflated costs around food.
“I’m sure it won’t be easy,” Politico cited Sen. John Thune (SD), who explained his party will get a second bite at the apple later in 2023 during the fight over the farm bill.
The report also cited a GOP Senate aide, who was granted anonymity so that they could be less diplomatic: "I mean, Godspeed. Get what you can. We’re going to live in reality over here."
Sen. John Boozman (R-AR), the top GOP official on the Senate Agriculture Committee, told the site that he doesn't think something like that would make it through a 60-vote filibuster-proof majority. But he also said that he doesn't think it would make it through McCarthy's House either, given the narrow margins.
