2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[weatheriscool]

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[weatheriscool]

Trump prepares an extensive opposition file on 'Ron DeSanctimonious'

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis has not yet officially entered the 2024 presidential arena but former President Donald Trump’s campaign is preparing a grenade to launch his way.

Trump’s team and his allied PAC are preparing an expansive opposition research file by poring over DeSantis’ record as a prosecutor, member of Congress, and Florida governor. Among the items a Trump-allied group has drilled into is DeSantis’ record while serving as an assistant U.S. Attorney before running for congressional office, with plans to accuse him of being an “extremely lenient prosecutor” in cases involving, among other things, child pornography.

They have recently conducted focus groups and looked at polling to hone in on the best messaging to take on DeSantis. And they’re wasting no time to get organized and scoop up talent in key primary states.

“The team itself has felt like he has had a free ride without scrutiny for a number of years,” said Bryan Lanza, who worked on Trump’s 2016 campaign and remains close to Trump’s team. “Just because he’s aggressive and willing to fight doesn’t make him MAGA. MAGA is the policies and there is a tremendous amount of sunlight between Trump policies and DeSantis policies. The more and more that gets highlighted the more DeSantis is going to get exposed as just another member of the establishment and compared to Jeb Bush.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2023/03/1 ... s-00087081

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Former President Donald Trump's first 2024 campaign rally will be in Waco, Tx.

Texas is the first stop on the 2024 presidential campaign trail for Donald Trump, the former president’s team announced Friday. In this third consecutive bid for the White House, Trump will hold a rally March 25 at the Waco Regional Airport.

While facing criminal charges and less vocal support from Texas GOP leaders, Trump hopes to lock in the loyalty of Lone Star State voters before more Republicans join the primary race.

“It is undisputed that Texas is Trump Country after electing 37 Trump Endorsed Candidates and recent polling among Texas primary voters,” his campaign staff wrote in a news release announcing the event. Trump’s campaign cited a tweet from Interactive Polls, a conservative media company, as evidence that in polls Texans favor Trump over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential Republican nominee.

According to February polling from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, 56% of Republicans surveyed said the former president should run again.

While Trump was at one point a political force of nature in the state, his sway may have waned given how few prominent Texas Republicans have endorsed the former president for 2024. On Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, gave DeSantis his endorsement, calling the Florida governor “a man of conviction.”

https://www.newsfromthestates.com/artic ... ll-be-waco

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DeSantis hits Republican poll low as Trump tightens grip on primary

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... ion-latest

Donald Trump may be in legal trouble over his alleged weakness for vice, but his predicament is increasingly placing Ron DeSantis – his chief rival for the Republican presidential nomination – in a political vise.

The Florida governor must join Republican attacks on Alvin Bragg, the Democratic Manhattan district attorney whose indictment of Trump over a hush money payment to a porn star is reportedly imminent, while trying not to lose ground in a primary he has not formally entered.

DeSantis has floated criticism of Trump over the hush money payment – and indeed did so again on Tuesday in an interview with Fox Nation that prompted Trump to say he was “not working for the people of Florida as he should be”.

The same day, however, a new poll showed how Trump, who is also fundraising off his legal peril, has tightened his grip on the primary race.

[caltrek]

If DeSantis falters, that could open up the way for Nikki Haley. DeSantis has been skillful at wooing former supporters away from Trump. So, he is trying to win in that MAGA lane. Nikki, by contrast, probably appeals to the old-time establishment-oriented types who are more interested in actually winning in the general election then they are in following Trump to yet another defeat. Nikki would also like to gain more support among the MAGA types, but to date DeSantis and Trump have sucked all of the oxygen out of that room, hence her poor performance in the polls. Of course, there are also a lot of weaker relatively unknown candidates out there, but if any of them can win the fund-raising race, they might stand a chance of leapfrogging into contention.

So, it is interesting to follow the polls, but a lot could still happen. Particularly as expected indictments start piling up on Trump. More of his followers might simply conclude that he just has too much baggage to win and start looking around for other candidates. For all of that, I think Trump is still the front runner. He is actually using these multiple investigations and indictments as evidence of his anti-establishment credentials, even as he accepts huge campaign contributions from the same old established elites.

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Poll: Signature DeSantis policies unpopular with Americans ahead of likely presidential run

If Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis defeats former President Donald Trump for the 2024 Republican presidential nomination, he may have a harder time winning the general election than his supporters expect, according to the latest Yahoo News/YouGov poll.

The new survey shows that more Americans oppose than favor seven out of eight signature policies put forward by DeSantis in Florida, with support ranging from 36% (for requiring public school books to be reviewed for content “the government deems inappropriate”) to a low of 21% (for “granting political appointees the power to fire tenured faculty members at public colleges and universities at any time and for any reason”).

On foreign policy, meanwhile, DeSantis doesn’t fare much better.

“While the U.S. has many vital national interests,” the Florida governor said in a statement last week, “becoming further entangled in a territorial dispute between Ukraine and Russia is not one of them.” Yet by a nearly 2-1 margin, Americans consider the conflict an “invasion of Ukraine by Russia” (56%) rather than a “territorial dispute” (30%) — and less than a third (32%) think “the conflict is none of America’s business.”

https://www.yahoo.com/news/poll-signatu ... 06760.html

He's a dumbass and a rather unlikeable one at that.

[wjfox]

Former President Donald Trump's first 2024 campaign rally will be in Waco, Tx.

Texas is the first stop on the 2024 presidential campaign trail for Donald Trump, the former president’s team announced Friday. In this third consecutive bid for the White House, Trump will hold a rally March 25 at the Waco Regional Airport.

While facing criminal charges and less vocal support from Texas GOP leaders, Trump hopes to lock in the loyalty of Lone Star State voters before more Republicans join the primary race.

“It is undisputed that Texas is Trump Country after electing 37 Trump Endorsed Candidates and recent polling among Texas primary voters,” his campaign staff wrote in a news release announcing the event. Trump’s campaign cited a tweet from Interactive Polls, a conservative media company, as evidence that in polls Texans favor Trump over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, a potential Republican nominee.

According to February polling from the Texas Politics Project at the University of Texas at Austin, 56% of Republicans surveyed said the former president should run again.

While Trump was at one point a political force of nature in the state, his sway may have waned given how few prominent Texas Republicans have endorsed the former president for 2024. On Wednesday, U.S. Rep. Chip Roy, R-Austin, gave DeSantis his endorsement, calling the Florida governor “a man of conviction.”

https://www.newsfromthestates.com/artic ... ll-be-waco

[caltrek]

Poll: Signature DeSantis policies unpopular with Americans ahead of likely presidential run

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See, that is the thing. DeSantis may be popular right now as the alternative to Trump. Still, what is going to happen when folks realize how extreme he is?

For Haley and company, the key at this stage may be to build up a big war chest. With such a war chest, they can then point out the weaknesses of both Trump and DeSantis. Of course, a lot depends on how accurate these polls are as to the popularity of stances taken. So, how these stances are packaged becomes very important. Those most ardently supported by Fox News and those with the largest war chests will be at an advantage. Still, a lot of campaigning ahead. So, as I have said before, a lot could change.

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Early voting ahead of Chicago mayoral runoff outpaces 2019 race

CHICAGO (CBS) – Chicago is seeing a big turnout in early voting for the runoff election.

As of Thursday night, almost 44,000 ballots had already been cast. Compare that to the 2019 runoff election with 11 days out, about 28,000 people had voted early.

Paul Vallas was endorsed Thursday by leaders of the Cook County Democratic Women Organization.

Brandon Johnson spoke about affordable housing Thursday night. He met with voters at the Island Terrace apartments at 64th and Stony Island.

Coming up on Tuesday, CBS 2 Chicago, along with our partners, the Business Leadership Council, Chicago Urban League, National Association of Black Journalists Chicago, and WVON will host a debate with Johnson and Vallas.

https://www.cbsnews.com/chicago/news/ch ... ly-voting/

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Former President Donald Trump's first 2024 campaign rally will be in Waco, Tx.

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https://www.newsfromthestates.com/artic ... ll-be-waco

Ummm...I actually think that if this tactic succeeded it would amount to what in the old days was considered to be a "dirty trick." Mind you, I can't think of anyone more deserving to be a victim of such a trick than Donald Trump.

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Chicago mayoral poll shows tie between Paul Vallas, Brandon Johnson 1 week away from Election Day

CHICAGO (WLS) -- The race for Chicago mayor is heating up.

A new Northwestern University poll shows the race is a dead heat, with both candidates having 44% with 12% undecided.

With tens of thousands already voted, both candidates are taking all the endorsements they can get ahead of April 4 to win over those last minute voters.

Mayoral candidates Paul Vallas and Brandon Johnson are picking up late endorsements.

"We need someone with proven leadership skills and the ability to bring us together," 4th Ward Alderman Sophia King said. "That's why I'm supporting Paul Vallas for mayor."

https://abc7chicago.com/chicago-mayoral ... /13032709/

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Silence During Donald Trump's Rally Hints at Huge DeSantis Problem
by Ewan Palmer
March 28, 2023

Introduction:

(Newsweek) Donald Trump received an unexpectedly frosty reception from his own supporters during his first major public 2024 rally in Waco, Texas, which may have implications for the former president's campaign plans.

During the Saturday rally, Trump reverted to his usual tactic of attacking his one-time ally Ron DeSantis amid speculation the Florida governor is due to soon confirm his own 2024 bid.

While Trump has frequently lashed out at DeSantis for months online via his Truth Social account, including sharing polls that show the former president dominating the Florida governor in a hypothetical GOP primary contest, the Waco rally was the first real test to see if frequently attacking his Republican rival whose stock has been rising in GOP circles will translate into real life.

Instead, as noted by several news sites such as the normally Trump-supporting Fox News, the crowd at the Waco rally was silent while Trump launched a mocking tirade against DeSantis, including claiming the governor came to him "crying, begging" for an endorsement in his 2018 gubernatorial election.

"There is a big difference between a pro-Trump rally and an anti-DeSantis rally and Donald Trump might be crossing that line," Brandon Rottinghaus, professor of political science University of Houston, told Newsweek. "DeSantis is well liked by many Republicans so attacking him this early without a specific reason may backfire for Trump."

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... msnnews11

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Lamont Bagby (D) Elected to Succeed Congresswoman Jennifer McClellan in Virginia Senate

RICHMOND, VA – Tonight, Virginia Delegate and Senator-elect, Lamont Bagby, won the special election to fill the unexpired term of Congresswoman Jennifer McClellan, who resigned from the Virginia Senate after voters elected her as the first Black woman to represent the Commonwealth of Virginia in the U.S. House.

“Senator-elect Bagby’s experience in the House of Delegates and his leadership as the Chair of the Virginia Legislative Black Caucus will guide him well as he continues his service on behalf of Virginians in SD-09,” said Liam Watson, Press Secretary for the Democratic Party of Virginia. “The Senator-elect will build on Congresswoman McClellan’s contributions to the Commonwealth, and we can’t wait to see the great work he does in the Virginia Senate.”

https://bluevirginia.us/2023/03/lamont- ... nia-senate

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Quinnipiac: Trump +14 / +10

Trump 47%
DeSantis 33%
Pence 5%
Haley 4%
Everyone else 2% or lower

H2H:
Trump 52%
DeSantis 42%

https://poll.qu.edu/poll-release?releaseid=3870

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NYT: The Most Important Election of 2023 Is Taking Place in Wisconsin

A judicial election in a state you probably don’t live in — it might be hard to get excited about. But the Wisconsin Supreme Court election, pitting the mild-mannered, liberal-leaning family court judge Janet Protasiewicz against the Trumpist former state Supreme Court justice Daniel Kelly, is by far the most important political contest of the year.

The race, which has gotten quite vicious, is ostensibly nonpartisan; candidates are not affiliated with a party on the ballot. But its political stakes are clear. Wisconsin’s Supreme Court currently has a 4-3 conservative majority, and one of the conservatives is retiring. If elected, Protasiewicz hopes to take a fresh look at the maps. She wants to revisit Act 10, which the state Supreme Court upheld in 2014. “Since 2011,” she told me in Madison last week, “it’s just been a spiral downward to a place where our democracy is really at peril.” This election is a singular chance to reverse that spiral.

It could also determine whether the next presidential election is free and fair, shaking up a swing state court that came frighteningly close to overturning the 2020 vote. And if that isn’t enough, this election will also be a referendum on abortion rights, which is turning out to be the key issue in the race. When the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade last year, an 1849 Wisconsin law banning almost all abortions went into effect. The state’s Democratic attorney general has filed a lawsuit challenging the ban, and the case will almost certainly make its way to Wisconsin’s Supreme Court.

“The state Supreme Court has always been the trump card for Republicans,” Charlie Sykes, once an influential right-wing radio host in Wisconsin and now the co-founder of the Never Trump conservative publication The Bulwark, told me. “You flip that and it changes the rules and dynamics of Wisconsin politics pretty fundamentally.”

https://www.nytimes.com/2023/03/30/opin ... ction.html

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Echelon Insights: Biden +3 vs. Trump/DeSantis

Biden 47%
Trump 44%

Biden 45%
DeSantis 42%

https://echelonin.wpenginepowered.com/w ... TERNAL.pdf

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Post-indictment poll: Trump surges to largest-ever lead over DeSantis
https://news.yahoo.com/trump-indictment ... 50006.html

Andrew Romano
Sat, April 1, 2023, 10:11 AM CDT

A new Yahoo News/YouGov poll — one of the first conducted after former President Donald Trump was indicted Thursday for his role in paying hush money to a porn star — shows Trump surging to his largest-ever lead over Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis, his likely 2024 GOP primary challenger, as Republican voters rally around the only president in U.S. history to face criminal charges.

In the previous Yahoo News/YouGov survey, which was conducted less than two weeks ago, Trump (47%) led DeSantis (39%) by eight percentage points in a head-to-head matchup among registered voters who are Republicans or Republican-leaning independents. As recently as February, it was DeSantis who was narrowly ahead of Trump, 45% to 41%.

But the new, post-indictment poll suddenly finds Trump lapping DeSantis by 26 percentage points — 57% to 31% — in a one-on-one contest. The former president even attracts majority support (52%, up from 44% previously) when pitted against a wider, 10-candidate field of declared and potential GOP challengers, while DeSantis plummets to 21% (down from 28%).

No one else cracks double digits.

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Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson announces 2024 presidential run
Source: ABC News

Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson made his 2024 White House bid official on Sunday in an exclusive sit-down interview with ABC "This Week" co-anchor Jonathan Karl.

Ahead of his presidential announcement, Hutchinson, a Republican, spent several days in the first-in-the nation caucus state of Iowa, stirring speculation that he intended to enter into what he acknowledged is a tense national political landscape.

"I have made a decision, and my decision is I'm going to run for president of the United States," Hutchinson told Karl. "While the formal announcement will be later in April, in Bentonville [Arkansas], I want to make it clear to you, Jonathan, I am going to be running. And the reason is, I've traveled the country for six months, I hear people talk about the leadership of our country. I'm convinced that people want leaders that appeal to the best of America, and not simply appeal to our worst instincts."

The former governor told Karl he is inspired by his travels around the country over the last six months and acknowledged it would take "a lot of hard work and good messaging" to raise his national profile and break through a crowded primary field.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/abc-new ... d=98238115