New predictions for the timeline

[wjfox]

A reader has informed me that the BRICS should include South Africa.

[lechwall]

I feel there should be a prediction (say 2025-2040 period) where deep fakes clearly influence the results of democratic elections in the west the prediction can also make reference to the alogrithmic arms race in trying to prove that deep fakes are indeed fake and not legitimate.

[ReactiveWaters]

Hi - not a major point, but on the 2023 prediction for Croatia joining the Euro, the Spanish Balearic islands are not highlighted. Also Andorra and San Marino use the Euro 'officially' even though they are not members.

[wjfox]

If current policies remain in place, the ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 values (before the appearance of the ozone hole) by around 2066 over the Antarctic, by 2045 over the Arctic and by 2040 for the rest of the world.

https://ozone.unep.org/system/files/doc ... ummary.pdf

[ººº]

If current policies remain in place, the ozone layer is expected to recover to 1980 values (before the appearance of the ozone hole) by around 2066 over the Antarctic, by 2045 over the Arctic and by 2040 for the rest of the world.

https://ozone.unep.org/system/files/doc ... ummary.pdf

I hope.

[wjfox]

40 MW floating turbine planned for 2029:

https://newatlas.com/energy/coaxial-ver ... -turbines/

[wjfox]

Some useful trends/S-curves here:

https://synthesis.capital/insights/s-cu ... ket-growth

[wjfox]

I will try to update this graph with more recent data.

https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... y-timeline

[wjfox]

Loads of useful data/trends for climate and energy:

https://about.bnef.com/new-energy-outlook/

[wjfox]

Reminder to self:

The United States in 2076

(Might be a month or two before this goes on the timeline, as I have several other predictions I want to write first.)

[wjfox]

Samsung recently introduced a 200MP cameraphone. The first gigapixel model will probably happen in the next several years.

I will try to extrapolate a trend from these pages:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy_S_series

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone

[Time_Traveller]

Samsung recently introduced a 200MP cameraphone. The first gigapixel model will probably happen in the next several years.

I will try to extrapolate a trend from these pages:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Samsung_Galaxy_S_series

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/IPhone

Even though i now prefer the Huawei mobiles, i look forward to see what the future has instore with these mobiles.

[wjfox]

2032-42 - Hair cloning is emerging as a viable treatment for baldness

(in combination with stem cell banking)

...making a brand new follicle that regenerates its own hair, explains Dr. Wasserbauer. That is probably 10 or 20 years away.

https://www.newyorksocialdiary.com/hair ... -baldness/

https://www.newscientist.com/article/23 ... treatment/

[FuturismFan]

Even though it's a blog, this could make a good addition to the timeline itself

23,000,000 AD - Madagascar has recovered from human-induced extinctions

https://www.futuretimeline.net/blog/202 ... meline.htm

[wjfox]

Some useful data/trends on obesity:

https://www.worldobesityday.org/resourc ... atlas-2023
https://www.worldobesity.org/news/econo ... on-by-2035

This covers pretty much every country.

[FuturismFan]

This prediction is outdated:

2038 - NASA's Trident spacecraft arrives at Neptune
https://www.futuretimeline.net/21stcent ... tm#trident

The Trident spacecraft wasn't chosen for NASA's Discovery Program. Instead, VERITAS and DAVINCI+ were chosen to explore Venus.
https://theconversation.com/nasa-has-ju ... out-162192

It's a shame, since as the timeline states:
"A strong incentive to launch the mission is a rare and efficient alignment between Jupiter, Neptune, and Triton in 2038. Additionally, Neptune's orbit around the Solar System during this time offers the best opportunity to study Triton's ice plumes – missing this window means waiting for another century."

[wjfox]

Instead, VERITAS and DAVINCI+ were chosen to explore Venus.

VERITAS itself may be cancelled/delayed too:

https://www.futuretimeline.net/forum/vi ... 951#p33951

[FuturismFan]

2100 - Joshua trees face extinction

https://www.desertsun.com/story/news/en ... 989860007/

Scientists and environmental groups say the science surrounding the western Joshua tree is grim. The tree’s suitable habitat is expected to decline substantially by 2100 due to climate change, especially in the southern portions of its range — meaning the Joshua tree would largely be unable to survive in its namesake park by the end of this century.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... es-delayed

Scientists predict that the spiny-crested fixtures of the high desert are unlikely to survive through the end of the century due to global heating. By 2100, only 0.02% of the tree’s current habitat in Joshua Tree national park would remain viable amid unmitigated climate change, according to a 2019 study published in the journal Ecosphere.

https://www.nbcnews.com/id/wbna42276969

An icon of the Mojave Desert, the Joshua tree may be found only at its highest or most northerly outposts by the end of the century. A new study suggests its range may shrink by 90 percent in the next 60 to 90 years as a consequence of global warming.

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2 ... 153656.htm

Prior to its extinction around 13,000 years ago, the Shasta ground sloth favored Joshua trees as food, and its fossilized dung contained abundant remains of Joshua trees, including whole seeds and fruits. These fossil deposits, along with fossil leaves collected and stored by packrats, allowed scientists to determine the tree's formerly broad range before the warming event.

The study concluded that the ability of Joshua trees to spread into suitable habitat following the prehistoric warming event around 12,000 years ago was limited by the extinction of large animals that had previously dispersed its seeds over large geographic areas, particularly the Shasta ground sloth. Today, Joshua tree seeds are dispersed by seed-caching rodents, such as squirrels and packrats, which cannot disperse seeds as far as large mammals. The limited ability of rodents to disperse Joshua tree seeds in combination with other factors would likely slow migration to only about 6 feet per year, not enough to keep pace with the warming climate, Cole and his colleagues concluded.

[wjfox]

"...the first human torpor trials could take place as early as the mid-2030s."

https://www.space.com/astronaut-hiberna ... -in-decade

[wjfox]

Next prediction(s) will probably be an update of the global warming temperatures.

2°C, currently listed for 2041, but now more likely to be 2048.

I now think it's unlikely we'll reach 3°C, due to rapid emission cuts + carbon sequestration, so I'll be removing that one listed for 2056.

But there remains a strong possibility of breaching 2.5°C, and even that could be disastrous for the world.