Ukraine War Watch Thread

[weatheriscool]

Democrats, Republicans join up to urge Biden to send F-16s to Ukraine
Source: Politico

A bipartisan group of lawmakers is pressing President Joe Biden directly to send F-16 warplanes to Ukraine as the fight against Russia’s invasion enters its second year.

Five House members argued modern jets — which Kyiv has sought, but the administration has so far not agreed to — “could prove decisive for control of Ukrainian airspace this year” in a Thursday letter to Biden obtained by POLITICO.

“The provision of such aircraft is necessary to help Ukraine protect its airspace, particularly in light of renewed Russian offensives and considering the expected increase in large-scale combat operations,” the lawmakers wrote.

The letter was organized by Maine Democrat Jared Golden. Also signing on were Democrats Jason Crow of Colorado and Chrissy Houlahan of Pennsylvania and Republicans Tony Gonzales of Texas and Mike Gallagher of Wisconsin.

Read more: https://www.politico.com/news/2023/02/1 ... r-00083402

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

US formally accuses Russia of crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Harris says
Source: Politico EU

MUNICH — The United States has determined that Russia is committing crimes against humanity in Ukraine, Vice President Kamala Harris announced Saturday, the latest salvo in the West’s effort to hold Moscow accountable for its wartime atrocities.

In a marquee address at the Munich Security Conference, Harris detailed that Russia is responsible for a “widespread and systematic attack” against Ukraine’s civilian population, citing evidence of execution-style killings, rape, torture and forceful deportations — sometimes perpetrated against children. As a result, Russia has not only committed war crimes, as the administration formally concluded in March, but also illegal acts against non-combatants.

“Their actions are an assault on our common values, an attack on our common humanity,” the vice president said, referencing images of bodies lying in the streets of Bucha and the sexual assault of a four-year-old girl by a Russian soldier. “Barbaric and inhumane.” Harris then declared: “The United States has formally determined that Russia has committed crimes against humanity.”

The Biden administration will continue to assist Ukraine in its investigation into these alleged crimes, she said, vowing that the perpetrators and “their superiors” will be “held to account.”

Read more: https://www.politico.eu/article/us-form ... la-harris/

[weatheriscool]

Russia's Wagner fighters suffer 30,000 casualties in Ukraine: US

The White House says 90 percent of Wagner Group fighters killed in Ukraine since December were convicts.
Published On 18 Feb 202318 Feb 2023

Russia’s Wagner mercenary group has suffered more than 30,000 casualties since Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine last February, with about 9,000 of those fighters killed in action, the United States has claimed.



The US estimates that 90 percent of Wagner Group fighters killed in Ukraine since December 2022 were convicts, White House National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters at a regular briefing on Friday. Half of the overall deaths among Wagner mercenaries have occurred since mid-December, as fighting in Ukraine’s eastern city of Bakhmut intensified, according to US intelligence. Kirby said the mercenary group had made incremental gains in and around Bakhmut over the last few days but those advances had taken many months to achieve and came at a “devastating cost that is not sustainable”. “It is possible that they may end up being successful in Bakhmut but it will prove of no real worth to them because it is of no real strategic value,” he said, adding that Ukrainian forces would maintain strong defensive lines across the Donbas region.

Kirby told reporters that Wagner continued to rely heavily on convicts, who were sent to war without training or equipment, despite recent comments from Wagner’s founder Yevgeny Prigozhin that he had stopped recruiting Russian prisoners to fight in Ukraine. The United Kingdom’s ministry of defence estimates Russian forces have likely suffered up to approximately 200,000 casualties since the start of their invasion of Ukraine. “The high Russian casualty rate, especially the high ratio of deaths to injuries, continues to have deleterious effects on the Russian military’s combat effectiveness and is likely prompting Russian officials to continue crypto-mobilization efforts,” the Institute for the Study of War, a Washington, DC-based think tank, said on Saturday.
. . . .



https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FpJkhmQWYAE ... name=small


. . . .

Earlier on Friday, the Ukrainian government urged all Bakhmut residents to flee as heavy fighting is expected to continue. “If you are rational, law-abiding and patriotic citizens, you should leave the city immediately,” Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Iryna Vereshchuk said in an appeal on Friday to what is believed to be the remaining few thousand people in the battered town. She made her comments on a Telegram channel. According to the Ukrainian government, five civilians were killed and nine injured earlier on Friday. The city of once 70,000 inhabitants in the Donetsk region now has about 6,000 civilians, Vereshchuk said. Many elderly residents are holding out because their homes are their only possession and they do not want to leave their birthplace. Some also sympathise with Russia.


Source: Al Jazeera and news agencies

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2023/2/1 ... ukraine-us

[Xyls]

This pretty much sums up the state of the war right now. Only way for this to end is to arm Ukraine so they can forcefully expel the Russians.



Russia lost nearly 3000 men in 3 days at Vuhledar...



And we are seriously thinking that Russia has any path to victory here, or is going to be capable of launching an offensive?

Please...

Even better it looks like the forces of Russia have been so weakened by this push that there may be the opportunity for the Ukrainians to break the line and launch another offensive soon.

[ibm9000]

This pretty much sums up the state of the war right now. Only way for this to end is to arm Ukraine so they can forcefully expel the Russians.



Russia lost nearly 3000 men in 3 days at Vuhledar...



And we are seriously thinking that Russia has any path to victory here, or is going to be capable of launching an offensive?

Please...

Even better it looks like the forces of Russia have been so weakened by this push that there may be the opportunity for the Ukrainians to break the line and launch another offensive soon.

"sums up the state of..."
One tweet?

"Only way..."
Terrible lack of imagination or limitless wishful-thinking.

"Political judgement..."
Something like an opinion.

"not losing"
Like Israel?

"Russia lost..."
According to what forensic team?

"Why hold..."
Why withhold the Abrams when they can win two wars in a row?

"capable of..."
Well, 200.000 reservists or 76 western tanks?

"Please..."
Use my imagination and nothing else?

"so weakened"
How much weakened exactly? Remember, please, 97% of the Russian army is there.
An U. offensive, with no artillery ammo?

I have seem a few corpses, but again, I haven't been able to see any ID.

[Xyls]

[ibm9000]

One night stand?

Sorry... counteroffensive?

[weatheriscool]

Japan to give Ukraine $5.5B, host online G-7 plus Zelenskyy
Source: AP

By MARI YAMAGUCHI

TOKYO (AP) — Japan’s Prime Minister Fumio Kishida on Monday announced a new $5.5 billion financial aid for Ukraine and will mark the first anniversary of the war by hosting an online Group of Seven summit with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Kishida, speaking at a global forum in Tokyo organized by a Japanese think tank, said Ukraine still suffers under the Russian invasion and its people need help to rebuild their daily lives and infrastructure that’s been badly damaged by Russian attacks.

As this year’s president of G-7, Kishida said he will host an online summit to be joined by Zelenskyy on Friday to mark the first anniversary of the Russian invasion. It will be the first time for Kishida to host a G-7 summit.

Japan has joined the United States and European nations in sanctioning Russia over its invasion and providing humanitarian and economic support for Ukraine. Japan was quick to react because it fears a possible impact of the war in East Asia, where China’s military has grown increasingly assertive and has escalated tensions around self-ruled Taiwan, which Beijing claims as its territory.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/russia-ukrai ... 16c1c5929a

[caltrek]

Biden Says "Ukraine Will Never be a Victory for Russia" in Major Speech from Poland
by Ivana Saric
Updated February 21, 2023

Introduction:

(Axios) President Biden delivered a fiery message of freedom and democracy during a major speech Tuesday from Poland to mark the upcoming first anniversary of Russia's war in Ukraine.

Driving the news: The speech on Tuesday in Warsaw came a day after his surprise visit to Kyiv — a major sign of U.S. support for Ukraine.
What he's saying: "I have just come from a visit to Kyiv, and I can report that Kyiv stands strong. Kyiv stands proud. It stands tall. And most importantly, it stands free," Biden said during the opening of his remarks.

Referring to Russian President Vladimir Putin, who hours earlier delivered his own address, Biden said: "A dictator bent on rebuilding an empire will never be able to ease the people's love of liberty. Brutality will never grind down the will of the free. And Ukraine — Ukraine will never be a victory for Russia. Never."

• "One year after the bombs began to fall, Russian tanks rolled into Ukraine. Ukraine is still independent and free. From Kherson to Kyiv, Ukrainian fighter have reclaimed their land," Biden said.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/21/biden ... aine-war

For a discussion of Putin’s speech: https://www.axios.com/2023/02/21/putin ... t-nuclear

[ibm9000]

I would say the important news is not what Biden has said, but what Putin has done: suspending the START Treaty.
It is not a threat, but in this chess game there is always going to be a counter-move that you will not decide.

[erowind]

.

[ººº]

Suspending start is suicidal. Nuclear proliferation is the definition of insanity. I wholly expect the US and Russia to pour even more funding into nuclear arms now.

Or accelerate the research and development of SDIs which could prove to be quite unfortunate.

[Water]

I would say the important news is not what Biden has said, but what Putin has done: suspending the START Treaty.
It is not a threat, but in this chess game there is always going to be a counter-move that you will not decide.

Suspending start is suicidal. Nuclear proliferation is the definition of insanity. I wholly expect the US and Russia to pour even more funding into nuclear arms now.

From a personal assumption I'm calling another type of bluff and Russia is hardly going to actively do anything special after this symbolic gesture. After so many threats year after year, it's starting to achieve the opposite in people and diplomacy. I can barely remember the last time his nuke threats actually made me feel genuinely uneasy, and now I'm inching towards questioning if they even have more properly working warheads then I have fingers on my left hand.

That said, from a logical perspective I don't see why the US or anyone else would now feel the need to add funds to the development of nuclear arms. They have enough to kickstart real life Fallout 5 on their own. Just because Russia has started wasting resources on nukes again doesn't mean there's value in being able to turn the world into glass six times over rather than just five.

[ibm9000]

Nixon... not Putin.

President: How many did we kill in Laos?
Ziegler: Maybe ten thousand—fifteen?
Kissinger: In the Laotian thing, we killed about ten, fifteen….
President: See, the attack in the North that we have in mind…power plants, whatever’s left—POL [petroleum], the docks…And, I still think we ought to talke the dikes out now. Will that drown people?
Kissinger: About two hundred thousand people.
...
President: No, no, no…I’d rather use the nuclear bomb. Have you got that, Henry?
Kissinger: That, I think, would just be too much.
President: The nuclear bomb, does that bother you?…I just want you to think big, Henry, for Christsakes.
...
Blockade plus surgical bombing will inevitably achieve our objective—bring the North Vietnamese to their knees.” Thus, even “if the South Vietnamese collapse” in the meantime, a possibility according to Kissinger, the
North, under the dual pressure, had “got to give us back our prisoners; America is not defeated. We must not lose in Vietnam… The surgical operation theory is all right, but I want that place bombed to smithereens. They’re taking
on the United States. Now, goddamit, we’re gonna do it. We’re going to cream them. This is not in anger or anything... I should have done it long ago, I just didn’t follow my instincts... I’ll see that the United States does not lose.
In a later exchange Nixon observed to Kissinger: “The only place where you and I disagree…is with regard to the bombing. You’re so goddamned concerned about the civilians and I don’t give a damn. I don’t care.”
Kissinger responded: “I’m concerned about the civilians because I don’t want the world to be mobilized against you as a butcher".

[ibm9000]

From a personal...

"Bluff" as politics, yes.
Looking at this forum... we are still uneasy.
Start made possible 18 inspections, not any more. Do you think in US they don't feel uneasy? (18 is more than 5(?), right?).
Fear or the appearance of weakness may lose an election; the only importan thing.

[erowind]

.

[weatheriscool]

China Reportedly Negotiating with Russia To Supply Kamikaze Drones
Source: Spiegel International

The U.S. and Germany have warned China not to deliver weapons to Russia. According to information obtained by DER SPIEGEL, however, Beijing and Moscow are said to be negotiating the purchase of 100 strike drones, which could be delivered as soon as April.

According to that information, the Russian military is engaged in negotiations with Chinese drone manufacturer Xi'an Bingo Intelligent Aviation Technology over the mass production of kamikaze drones for Russia. The revelations create a new urgency in the debate over possible Chinese military support for Russia.

Bingo has reportedly agreed to manufacture and test 100 ZT-180 prototype drones before delivering them to the Russian Defense Ministry by April 2023. Military experts believe the ZT-180 is capable of carrying a 35- to 50 kilogram warhead.

Read more: https://www.spiegel.de/international/wo ... 3c69bc1dff

[weatheriscool]

Poland sends first batch of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine
Source: The Hill

Poland has delivered its first batch of Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki announced during a visit to Kyiv on Friday.

“I came here not only with a word of support. Poland, as the first European country, symbolically hands over to you, [Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky], the first four Polish Leopard tanks,” Morawiecki said, per his official Twitter account. “We will deliver more and urge our EU and NATO partners to do the same.”

Warsaw, which has pledged to provide Ukraine with 14 Leopard 2 tanks, was a key figure in the pressure campaign on Berlin last month to allow for the transfer of the German-made tanks to Ukraine.

Germany ultimately agreed to approve other countries’ requests to send the Leopard tanks to Ukraine in late January and pledged to also send 14 of its own tanks. The U.S. soon followed Berlin’s lead, announcing that it would send 31 Abrams tanks to Ukraine.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/world/po ... fad817c56f

[ibm9000]

“US officials say China is considering delivering artillery and drones to Russian forces that could prolong the war, even as Beijing has called for peace talks to end the fighting on the first anniversary of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.” . This is supported by the Wall Street Journal.

Unlike western weapons (they call for peace).

How much we miss that good-old-based-on-moral-principles Non‐Intervention Committee of 1936...