Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

Maybe, that "implosion" is not going to be that safe for us. Did you think about that?

[caltrek]

Amid Worries Over Russian Forces In Belarus, Former Security Officer Says Belarusian Conscripts Won’t Fight
by Volodymyr Mykhaylov
January 30, 2023

Introduction:

(Radio Free Europe / Radio Liberty via Eurasia Review) Belarus’s armed forces could face widespread desertion from conscripts should the country’s strongman leader, Alyaksandr Lukashenka, order an invasion of Ukraine, a former senior law enforcement official said.

The prediction by Alyaksandr Azarov, who represents an association of former Belarusian security officials, comes amid conflicting signals about whether Lukashenka may finally decide to commit Belarusian troops to the Ukraine invasion, now in its 12th month.

In the run-up to last February’s invasion, Russia held large-scale military exercises in Belarus. But as the exercises wound down, many of the 30,000 Russian troops stationed there were then used to invade Ukraine, in an unsuccessful push south to seize the Ukrainian capital and topple the government.

But while Lukashenka’s government has allowed Russia’s military wide leeway to use Belarusian territory, Lukashenka has sidestepped pressure from Moscow to actively join the invasion.

In November, satellite imagery obtained by RFE/RL’s Belarus Serviceshowed that thousands of Russian troops may have returned to Belarus, renewing questions about another incursion into Ukraine.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/30012023 ... nt-fight/

[weatheriscool]

U.S. Readies $2 Billion-Plus Ukraine Aid Package With Longer-Range Weapons -Sources
Source: U.S. News and World Report

WASHINGTON (Reuters) - The United States is readying more than $2 billion worth of military aid for Ukraine that is expected to include longer-range rockets for the first time and other munitions and weapons, two U.S. officials briefed on the matter told Reuters on Tuesday.

The weapons aid is expected to be announced as soon as later this week, the officials said. It is also expected to include support equipment for Patriot air defense systems, precision guided munitions and Javelin anti-tank weapons, they added.

One of the officials said that a portion of the package, $1.725 billion, would come from a fund known as the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative (USAI), which allows President Joe Biden's administration to get weapons from industry rather than from existing U.S. weapons stocks.

The USAI funds would go toward the purchase of a new weapon, Ground Launched Small Diameter Bomb (GLSDB), which have a range of 94 miles (150 km). The United States has rebuffed requests for the 185-mile (297-km) range ATACMS missile.

Read more: https://www.usnews.com/news/world/artic ... ns-sources

[weatheriscool]

Germany to send 88 Leopard I tanks to Ukraine
https://www.politico.eu/article/germany ... yndication

The German government has approved the delivery by a private arms-maker of its old Leopard 1 tanks to Kyiv, a government spokesperson said Friday.

“I can confirm that an export license has been issued” for the Leopard 1 tanks, government spokesman Steffen Hebestreit said at a press briefing, without confirming specific numbers.

Earlier on Friday, Süddeutsche Zeitung reported that Berlin had approved German arms-maker Rheinmetall’s plans to sell 88 of the older Leopards to Kyiv, once these are repaired, for a total cost of more than €100 million.

The move further signals a reversal of Berlin’s policy on tanks for Ukraine, nine days after the chancellery announced it would send one company of Leopard 2 tanks to Kyiv as part of a European coalition.

[ibm9000]

Are we getting rid of the old stock? That is good for business, tanks are always helpful. No pressure to negotiate?
I 1973 it took a while to get them to sit down and talk. Here, they are not that exhausted yet and well, they are only killing Ukrainians.

[wjfox]

This map shows the latest state of control in Ukraine

10 hr 48 min ago

Ukraine is fighting to hold on to the eastern city of Bakhmut, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky said Friday.

Communities surrounding the city, including the town of Soledar, have seen some of the fiercest fighting in the conflict in recent months.

This map shows the status of other areas Russia currently occupies in Ukraine:

https://edition.cnn.com/europe/live-new ... index.html

[caltrek]

Are we getting rid of the old stock? That is good for business, tanks are always helpful. No pressure to negotiate?
I 1973 it took a while to get them to sit down and talk. Here, they are not that exhausted yet and well, they are only killing Ukrainians.

Umm...acrually a lot of Russian soldiers seem to also be casualties. Certainly not a justification for the war, at least not from me.

[caltrek]

In Ukraine’s Donbas, Intensifying Russian Offensives: An Omen Of Things To Come?
by Mike Eckel
February 4, 2023

Introduction:

(RFE/RL) — In the eastern city of Bakhmut, months of relentless Russian assaults and waves of World-War-I-style infantry charges are taking their toll on exhausted Ukrainian forces. Just a few kilometers north, Ukrainian soldiers were forced to retreat west and south from the salt-mine town of Soledar after weeks of pounding by Russian troops.

Still further north, Ukraine’s effort to capitalize on a successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region by retaking more territory nearby appears to have stalled at what battlefield experts called the Svatove-Kreminna line, with Russian troops intensifying attacks.

And about 150 kilometers to the south, Ukraine is rushing reinforcements to defend Vuhledar and, according to some reports, push back Russian positions, which now include marine infantry from Russia’s Pacific Fleet.

After months of morale-boosting Ukrainian victories, powered in large part by Western weaponry, the tides of battle are turning yet again: For now, momentum seems to be shifting to Russia, bolstered by tens of thousands of mobilized men and thousands of prison inmates recruited and sprung from behind bars by the notorious mercenary group Wagner.

Ukrainian commanders and political leaders, including President Volodymyr Zelenskiy himself, are warning not only about the difficult conditions that Ukrainian troops are fighting under in multiple locations in the Donbas. They’re also warning of an imminent new Russian offensive, which the current intensifying fighting may be a prelude to.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023 ... analysis/

[caltrek]

Could Brazil’s Lula and Israel’s Netanyahu Help End The Ukraine War?
by Adam Dick
February 4 , 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) With the United States and a few other nations dumping money and weapons nonstop into Ukraine in an apparent effort to ensure the Ukraine War continues until the death of the last Ukrainian soldier, it can seem that peace has no chance. In fact, it can seem that much more likely than peace breaking out is the war escalating into a full-out world war.

But, there are plenty of nations that have not taken a side in the war. Maybe a move toward peace can be aided by actions of political leaders from some of these nations.

Two national political leaders who have discussed this week the possibility that they could help move down a path to peace are Brazil President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva and Israel Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu.

Interviewed at CNN, Netanyahu declared that, “if asked by all relevant parties,” which from the context of his comments seems to include Russia, Ukraine, and the United States, he “would certainly consider” becoming a mediator to facilitate ending the Ukraine War.

…Lula, speaking at a joint press conference with Germany Chancellor Olaf Scholz, expressed his willingness to help bring a negotiated end to the Ukraine War. Writing about Lula’s comments in a Tuesday Politico article, Hans von der Burchard reported that Lula “proposed to establish a peace-oriented club of nonaligned countries like China, Brazil, India and Indonesia, which he said have thus far not been involved in discussions on the war.” Lula also expressed in the press conference a commitment to continuing Brazil’s detachment from the ongoing war, a position likely advantageous for helping negotiate a peaceful conclusion. Von der Burchard wrote:

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04022023 ... war-oped/

[ibm9000]

Umm...acrually a lot of Russian soldiers seem to also be casualties.

in an apparent effort to ensure the Ukraine War continues until the death of the last Ukrainian soldier,

Meaning no Western casualties.

"UK will fight until the last French soldier". A saying from WW2.

[ibm9000]

Western officials reportedly estimate that Russian forces have sustained almost 200,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine.

ISW.

Officials? Like the source of that secret protocol to call one million reservists? Reportedly? Meaning yes or somebody heard that somebody said that somebody... Estimate? Again?, I can get an estimate from Tweeter or two.
What about an estimate of Ukrainian casualties? We are providing their weapons, we should know that number. Russia is attacking (no, wait, this is the great Ukrainian offensive), attackers usually suffer more casualties, but this attacker is using a lot more shells, tanks and everything, the defender should be suffering more casualties (not to mention who can take more).

The "offensive" against Kreminna seems to consist in repelling Russian attacks. Maybe the offensive ended like a long time ago but we haven't been informed? Anyone is reading Russian newspapers?, maybe we could get an "official" estimate from them... about Ukrainian casualties.

Note.
Brazil is going to help negotiations or is going to be pressured to sell tank ammo for those Leopard 1? Are we in for peace or for war?

[firestar464]

Erm, they hyperlink all the sources as footnotes. As for Kremina, ISW assessed that they'll take it by early 23 (that is, they have up to April for this assessment to age well).

[ibm9000]

Erm, they hyperlink all the sources as footnotes. As for Kremina, ISW assessed that they'll take it by early 23 (that is, they have up to April for this assessment to age well).

Clearly.

Key Takeaways

The Biden administration announced a new $2.2 billion military aid package to Ukraine on February 3, including precision long-range missiles for HIMARS.
Russian President Vladimir Putin continued his campaign against certain opposition voices in the domestic information space while continuing to platform critical nationalist milbloggers.
Russian officials continue to perpetuate the information operation that the war in Ukraine is a direct threat to Russian security through legislative manipulations.
Russian forces continued offensive operations along the Svatove-Kreminna line with an intensified pace of operations near Kreminna.
Russian forces continued offensive operations around Bakhmut.
Russian forces did not make any confirmed territorial gains in southern Ukraine.
Western officials reportedly estimate that Russian forces have sustained almost 200,000 casualties in the war in Ukraine.
Russian officials continue to rely on government-organized non-governmental organizations operating in occupied territories to create the veneer of grassroots support for Russian occupation.

Offensive assessment? A bit too generous when they are repelling attacks. Ukraine series of continuous attacks was... when exactly?

[ibm9000]

You can say that the Bakhmut (shy) offensive is still going on with (continuous) small, limited attacks. You can say that Russia is counterattacking around Kreminna, but "offensive" would be the wrong word.

[raklian]

That guy running while burning...

[wjfox]

Ukraine releases video appearing to show Russian troops beating own wounded officer

Tue 7 Feb 2023 13.04 GMT

Ukraine has released extraordinary video footage that appears to show Russian fighters dragging their badly wounded commander away from the battlefield, and then beating him violently with what appear to be shovels.

A Ukrainian drone captured the incident near the eastern city of Bakhmut, where intense fighting has been raging for months. Four soldiers from Russia’s Wagner mercenary group carry their colleague through a landscape of ruined houses, holding his arms and legs.

They then dump him next to a barn. A second video appears to show three men then hitting him repeatedly with shovels. The fate of the injured commander is unclear. But the episode tallies with persistent reports of low morale among Russian mercenary units.

Ukrainian soldiers fighting in and around Bakhmut have described how Wagner troops attack in waves. They are reportedly threatened with execution if they fail to advance and are mown down in large numbers, their corpses littering the frontlines.

A drone unit from the Seneka special platoon shot the footage earlier this week. It was released on Ukrainian social media channels on Monday.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2023/ ... ed-officer

[ibm9000]

So...

Do we know his rank?; can we see their Wagner membership card?; two videos for the same incident?; low morale, because of that video, because Ukraine says that the enemy has low morale?; so low are they in ammo that they shoot a video instead of mortars?

I haven't seen any video of those "corpses littering the front-lines", anybody?
I saw a bad quality picture of between 20 to 40 corpses by a road, I could't see an ID in any one of them.

[caltrek]

What Are the Kremlin’s Hopes for Its War Against Ukraine?
by Ksenia Kirillova
February 7, 2023

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) In the 12th month of Russia’s war against Ukraine, analysts close to the Kremlin are increasingly sounding the alarm that the Russian people should prepare for a long-term conflict. At the same time, in the past, such statements were always accompanied by propaganda narratives about the United States dragging Russia into a protracted war. Now, propagandists claim that a long war primarily benefits Moscow.

At the end of January 2023, a long anonymous article appeared on a pro-Kremlin website, the essence of which boiled down to the idea that the protracted war in Ukraine was not a forced necessity, but “Putin’s cunning plan.” The author asserts that Western analysts are absolutely right when they say that Russia “will have enough resources for many years, but the reserves of Western military arsenals will be seriously depleted, while their economy suffers.” The propagandist states that the transition from offensive to defensive operations will allow Moscow to carry out large-scale changes in the composition of the Russian Armed Forces, increase their numbers and ensure the timely supply of weapons and equipment. “No one is in a hurry,” the author concludes (Topcor.ru, January 19).

This article is not a lone opinion, but part of an increasingly widespread narrative..

Conclusion:

(Pro-Kremlin expert Rostislav) Ishchenko noted that the damage from a protracted war could be so great that it negates victory, and its most dangerous consequence is the militarization of public consciousness, “shaking natural economic ties and legitimizing violence” (Voennoedelo.com, December 20, 2022).

However, such voices are becoming increasingly marginalized. Ishchenko himself, at the end of his article, claims that Russia “has no other choice but to win a victory in this war,” thereby unwittingly playing along with those whom he had tried to argue against. Given all these factors, it seems highly doubtful that Russia will be able to fully avoid the negative consequences of a protracted war.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/07022023 ... analysis/

Read the pro-Kremlin propagandist (if you must) at Topcor.ry here: https://topcor.ru/31248-rossija-uhodit ... tsja.html A translate button is available at that site.

[wjfox]

So...

Do we know his rank?; can we see their Wagner membership card?; two videos for the same incident?; low morale, because of that video, because Ukraine says that the enemy has low morale?; so low are they in ammo that they shoot a video instead of mortars?

I haven't seen any video of those "corpses littering the front-lines", anybody?
I saw a bad quality picture of between 20 to 40 corpses by a road, I could't see an ID in any one of them.

[wjfox]