Society & Demographics News and Discussions

[funkervogt]

We Are Not Prepared for the Coming Surge of Babies

The post-Roe rise in births in the U.S. will be concentrated in some of the worst states for infant and maternal health. Plans to improve these outcomes are staggeringly thin.

By Melissa Jeltsen
December 16, 2022

A typical pregnancy lasts about 40 weeks. Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that created a constitutional right to abortion, was reversed less than six months ago. This means the U.S. is currently at a unique inflection point in the history of reproductive rights: early enough to see the immediate effects of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—closed clinics, a rapidly shifting map of abortion access—but too soon to measure the rise in babies born to mothers who did not wish to have them. Many of these babies will be born in states that already have the worst maternal- and child-health outcomes in the nation. Although the existence of these children is the goal of the anti-abortion movement, America is unprepared to adequately care for them and the people who give birth to them.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/arch ... re/672479/

The article says that the post-Roe baby bump will be 50,000 extra births, which is almost nothing since there were 3.6 million births in the U.S. in 2021.

[caltrek]

We Are Not Prepared for the Coming Surge of Babies

The post-Roe rise in births in the U.S. will be concentrated in some of the worst states for infant and maternal health. Plans to improve these outcomes are staggeringly thin.

By Melissa Jeltsen
December 16, 2022

A typical pregnancy lasts about 40 weeks. Roe v. Wade, the Supreme Court decision that created a constitutional right to abortion, was reversed less than six months ago. This means the U.S. is currently at a unique inflection point in the history of reproductive rights: early enough to see the immediate effects of Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization—closed clinics, a rapidly shifting map of abortion access—but too soon to measure the rise in babies born to mothers who did not wish to have them. Many of these babies will be born in states that already have the worst maternal- and child-health outcomes in the nation. Although the existence of these children is the goal of the anti-abortion movement, America is unprepared to adequately care for them and the people who give birth to them.

https://www.theatlantic.com/family/arch ... re/672479/

The article says that the post-Roe baby bump will be 50,000 extra births, which is almost nothing since there were 3.6 million births in the U.S. in 2021.

Missing the point.

Not prepared can be localized to less affluent areas not well endowed with adequate health care resources. Gotta keep those work slaves coming, and at minimal cost of maintenance. "Prolife" indeed.

[weatheriscool]

U.S. life expectancy fell again in 2021 amid pandemic, opioid crisis
Source: Axios

U.S. life expectancy fell to 76.4 years last year from 77 years in 2020, driven by the effects of the pandemic as well as the opioid epidemic, according to final mortality data from the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Why it matters: It is the second consecutive year that life expectancy has fallen. COVID-19 was the fastest-growing cause of death in 2021, followed closely by unintentional injuries, which include overdose deaths.

By the numbers: There were more than 3.4 million deaths in the U.S. in 2021, an increase of 80,502 over the total reported in 2020.

The death rate rose 5.3%, increasing from 835.4 deaths per 100,000 people to 879.7.

Read more: https://www.axios.com/2022/12/22/us-lif ... oid-crisis

[Time_Traveller]

The World population reaches eight billion – should we be concerned?

18-11-2022 07:00

Accurately measuring the size of the world’s population is notoriously difficult. Anyone who has ever been to India or travelled in Africa will appreciate just how difficult it is to record just how many people are living in a village, never mind one of the world’s mega-cities such as Delhi or Accra. The United Nations predicts that the world population surpassed eight billion, that’s eight thousand million, people on 15 November 2022.

To get a handle on this total, Stephanie Hegarty, the BBC’s population correspondent puts it like this,

“If I show you one person every second, it would take 253 years to get through them all.’’

The immediate question is how long will it take to reach nine billion? One estimate is that this total will be surpassed in 15 years.

Will the planet be able to support this number?

https://bylines.scot/news/world/populat ... concerned/

[raklian]

China’s population drops for the first time in decades


https://www.cnbc.com/2023/01/17/chinas- ... cades.html

China’s population declined in 2022, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday.

The drop was the first since the early 1960s, according to Yi Fuxian, a critic of China’s one-child policy and author of the book “Big Country With an Empty Nest.”

Mainland China’s population, excluding foreigners, fell by 850,000 people in 2022 to 1.41 billion, the statistics bureau said. The country reported 9.56 million births and 10.41 million deaths for 2022.

[funkervogt]

Here's another article about China's population drop, which covers some points missing in raklian's article.
https://www.reuters.com/world/china/chi ... 023-01-17/

Let me just summarize those points:
-The last time China's population had a year-over-year decrease was in 1961, and it was due to famine.
-Few demographers expected China's population to started decreasing as early as 2021.
-The unexpectedly early start of this trend means that India may already be the world's most populous country.
-The shrinking and graying of China's population will damage the global economy.

[wjfox]

[Xyls]

I think these demographics are good news for those concerned about war with Taiwan. At this point China needs to seriously think before expending it's younger population. Unless of course they want to burn off some of their excess men. However, even that might not be a compelling enough reason if you consider that their senior bulge could make their financial system unsustainable if they are losing their younger generation due to war.

Russia is going to be an abject lesson in this, but even Russia's demographics are not as skewed as China's. Also I don't see any recovery for these two countries in their birth rates going forward.

Ukraine while being devastated I am thinking may have a baby boom after this is all over as first of all I I think this whole process may result in a lot of people coupling up, and with Western investment likely coming for a rebuild it may encourage people to have kids if they think their prospects will improve.

[Time_Traveller]

Expected population of European countries in the year 2100:

[wjfox]

Sichuan: Couples in Chinese province allowed to have unlimited children

3 hours ago

Couples in China's Sichuan province will be allowed to have as many children as they want, as the country continues to try and get a grip on its declining population.

Last year, the population in China fell for the first time in 60 years.

For decades, the country had a one-child policy - increased nationally for married couples to three in 2021.

As part of the policy change in Sichuan, unmarried individuals will also now be able to raise children.

Previously there was a ban on single women registering a birth.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-asia-china-64457367

[weatheriscool]

US births increased in 2021 for 1st time in 7 years: CDC
Source: ABC News

The number of births in the United States increased in 2021 for the first time in seven years, reversing trends that continued during the pandemic, according to new federal data. A report published early Tuesday by the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's National Center for Health Statistics showed there were 3,664,292 babies born in 2021, which is a 1% increase from 2020.

The figure marks the first increase seen since 2014. Between 2014 and 2019, births were declining by an average of 1% per year, and there was a decline of 4% from 2019 to 2020. The report did provide reasons for the increase, but Pew Research Center polls suggest women in the U.S. delayed having babies during the first year of the pandemic due to public health and economic uncertainty, so the rising number could be the result of a rebound.

The report also found the fertility rate for women in the U.S. rose by 1% from 2020 to 2021, sitting at 56.3 births per 1,000 women who are of reproductive age. It's also the first increase since 2014 after the rate declined from 4% from 2019 to 2020 and by 2% per year on average from 2014 to 2019.



Although the overall number of births rose from 2020 to 2021, the figure was still lower than the 7.74 million recorded in 2019, according to federal data. When researchers looked at the number of births by race/ethnicity, disparities could be seen. Among white and Hispanic women, the number of births rose 2% for each group between 2020 and 2021. For Black and Asian women, the number of births declined by 2% from 2020 to 2021, and for American Indian/Alaskan Native women, the number of births declined 3%, the report showed.

Read more: https://abcnews.go.com/Health/us-births ... d=96765124

[wjfox]

China seeks 'bold' steps to lift birth rate

9 hours ago

A senior health official in Beijing has urged China's local leaders to find ways to boost the country's birth rate.

Yang Wenzhuang said officials must take active steps to tackle the detrimental effects of China's long-standing anti-population growth policy.

He also urged officials to "make bold innovations" in tackling the cost of childcare and education.

China reported in January that its population had fallen for the first time in 60 years.

In 2022, there was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people in China, the lowest birth rate on record and down from 7.52 births in the previous year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64594469

[lechwall]

China seeks 'bold' steps to lift birth rate

9 hours ago

A senior health official in Beijing has urged China's local leaders to find ways to boost the country's birth rate.

Yang Wenzhuang said officials must take active steps to tackle the detrimental effects of China's long-standing anti-population growth policy.

He also urged officials to "make bold innovations" in tackling the cost of childcare and education.

China reported in January that its population had fallen for the first time in 60 years.

In 2022, there was just 6.77 births per 1,000 people in China, the lowest birth rate on record and down from 7.52 births in the previous year.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-asia-china-64594469

I struggle to see it having any meaningful impact as China continues to become a more educated country particularly in more rural areas this will more than offset any increases in childbearing due to government incentives, not to mention the time it will take to overcome ingrained cultural attitudes to family sizes (if they can be overcome). Look at the Nordic countries for example where all these child friendly government policies already exist and they're still below replacement levels.

[weatheriscool]

More than half of the world will be overweight or obese by 2035
Source: Reuters

The World Obesity Federation's 2023 atlas predicts that 51% of the world, or more than 4 billion people, will be obese or overweight within the next 12 years.

Rates of obesity are rising particularly quickly among children and in lower income countries, the report found.

The cost to society is significant as a result of the health conditions linked to being overweight, the federation said: more than $4 trillion annually by 2035, or 3% of global GDP.

However, the authors said they were not blaming individuals, but calling for a focus on the societal, environmental and biological factors involved in the conditions.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/health ... 023-03-02/

[weatheriscool]

The United States will soon drop out of the Top 50 Nations in terms of life expectancy


https://www.worldometers.info/demograph ... xpectancy/

[caltrek]

Global Population May Tumble to Just 6 Billion People By 2100
by Tom Hale
March 27, 2023

Introduction:

(IFL Science) A new estimate suggests that the world’s population will likely peak in the next few decades and will decline significantly by the end of the century, perhaps slumping as low as 6 billion people. If the work is correct, this will be the first time the global population has seen a decline since the Black Death in the mid-14th century.

The world’s population recently tipped over 8 billion. In their latest working paper, researchers underline two hypothetical scenarios that explain how the next chapter of global population change might pan out.

Under the “Giant Leap” scenario, significant improvement in economic development, education, and health will see the population peak at 8.5 billion people around 2040 before declining to around 6 billion people by 2100.

Alternatively, under the “Too Little Too Late” scenario, the world continues to develop economically in a similar way to the last 50 years, resulting in the global population peaking at 8.6 in 2050 and then declining to 7 billion in 2100.

The report comes from the Club of Rome, a collective of intellectuals who are well-known for their controversial 1972 publication “Limits to Growth.” Using computer models, they speculated that civilization will be threatened with collapse if it continues to undergo exponential economic and population growth with a finite supply of resources.

Read more here: https://www.iflscience.com/global-popu ... 100-68168

caltrek’s comment: I became very skeptical of the Club of Rome’s forecasts when it became apparent to me that their 1972 predictions were entirely too pessimistic. Still, they have had time to correct their methodology and have been at it for quite a while, so I guess they at least deserve a hearing.

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

This is a sign of how much republican voters have fallen as a people. They simply don't give a shit about standards are doing what is right anymore. It is starting to bite them in the ass but they can't feel it because they're dumber then dog shit.

[weatheriscool]

More than 500,000 flee California since 2020 https://trib.al/Xjrbo7t

[wjfox]