Ukraine War Watch Thread

[funkervogt]

Anyone knows what happened to Soledar? Suddenly, it has disappeared from the news.

Russia captured the town, but at high cost.

[funkervogt]

Russia is building up its army for a massive operation in Ukraine in the next six months. It could take the form of a new offensive, or a defensive meant to destroy any Ukrainian offensive into Russian-held territory.

https://understandingwar.org/background ... ry-15-2023

The intelligence agencies of various Western countries have doubtless reported this to their leaders, and I believe it explains their recent announcements to donate more advanced tanks and other weapons to Ukraine. If it applies enough force in 2023, Russia could still win.

Putin has not given up on the idea of taking over all of Ukraine through a combination of massive territorial gains and forced regime change in Kiev. There is also no real evidence than Putin is terminally ill or close to being overthrown, nor is the Russian economy poised to collapse.

[raklian]

Anyone knows what happened to Soledar? Suddenly, it has disappeared from the news.

Russia captured the town, but at high cost.

I don't think Russia can hold it for very long.

[raklian]

The intelligence agencies of various Western countries have doubtless reported this to their leaders, and I believe it explains their recent announcements to donate more advanced tanks and other weapons to Ukraine. If it applies enough force in 2023, Russia could still win.

Russia's weakened and heavily sanctioned economy has already crippled its ability to sufficiently prepare the new troops it will recruit against a much more modernized Ukrainian military with greater support from NATO. I just don't see Russia coming out of this achieving any of its objectives.

[andmar74]

Yes, now it's the time for NATO to step up. Give Ukraine several 100 tanks, which are superior to any Russian tank. Give them ammo. Give them artilleri. Even fighterplanes. Then Ukraine will win this year.

[erowind]

.

[ibm9000]

Russia captured the town, but at high cost. funkervogt

And at what cost for Ukraine?, have we seen the official list of casualties for both sides?

I don't think Russia can hold it for very long. raklian

Based on what exactly? The goal of the Ukranian offensive against Svatove was that Russia could take Soledar?

Russia's weakened and heavily sanctioned economy has already crippled its ability to sufficiently prepare the new troops it will recruit
against a much more modernized Ukrainian military with greater support from NATO. I just don't see Russia coming out of this achieving any of its
objectives. raklian

Could you tell us where is the Ukranian economy?
Ukraine is sending recruits to get basic training to foreign countries, do you think that means anything?
Much more modernized? The under-repair (because the Ukrainian artillerymen don't know how to use them properly) American howitzers?, compare
to what exactly?
14 Challengers?, greater support?
Objectives? Probably. What are the goals of Zelensky? Not signing a peace, Crimea, a crippled economy for the next 20 or 50 years, tens of thousands
of Ukrainian corpses? (Pride?).

Yes, now it's the time for NATO to step up. Give Ukraine several 100 tanks, which are superior to any Russian tank. Give them ammo. Give them artilleri. Even fighterplanes. Then Ukraine will win this year. andmar74

At last we got a tank expert!

So, the Challenger 2, all 14 of them, (still no Leopards) are superior to the (xyz) model of tank. What armour has the Challenger?, compare to what exactly?, Would you care to elaborate?
Do you know why Abrams have not been offered?
Care to elaborate?
What about the recovery vehicles?
Care to elaborate?
What about spare parts?, engines?
Care to elaborate?
If the sighting system of one tank is damaged, who is going to repair it?, how long is it going to take?
Care to elaborate?
If the laser rangefinder breaks down, how many spares are they getting?
Care to elaborate?
What about the training for the mechanics?
Care to elaborate?
How long does it take to train a tank crew?, how long to train an efficient tank crew?
Care to elaborate?

So, NATO is ready to fight this war using Ukranian corpses.
And now that you are at it, you could start WW3 too.

Most of all this looks like a child's letter to Santa. A lot like Brexit, all rainbows and unicorns.
Reality, tends to disappoint.

[weatheriscool]

Poland could send Leopard tanks to Ukraine without German OK, PM suggests
Source: Reuters

Poland's prime minister signalled that it could send Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine as part of a wider coalition even without Germany's re-export approval, raising pressure on Berlin ahead of a crunch meeting of allies on more military aid for Kyiv.

Warsaw and other NATO allies have been urging Germany to give them the go-ahead to send the German-made tanks to Ukraine amid ever louder Kyiv pleas for heavy weaponry it says is essential to turning the tide against Russia's invasion.

On Friday, Germany and the United States will convene dozens of allies at the U.S. Ramstein Air Base, a meeting billed as a chance to provide the arms to shift the war's momentum in 2023.

"Consent is of secondary importance here, we will either obtain this consent quickly, or we will do what is needed ourselves," Polish Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki told private broadcaster Polsat News late on Wednesday.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/world/europe/po ... 023-01-19/

[weatheriscool]

Putin ally Medvedev warns NATO of nuclear war if Russia defeated in Ukrainee
Source: Reuters

By Guy Faulconbridge and Felix Light

MOSCOW (Reuters) -Former Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, an ally of Kremlin chief Vladimir Putin, warned the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) on Thursday that the defeat of Russia in Ukraine could trigger a nuclear war.

Since Russia invaded Ukraine, Medvedev has repeatedly raised the threat of a nuclear apocalypse, but his admission now of the possibility of Russia's defeat indicates the level of Moscow's concern over increased Western weapons deliveries to Ukraine.

"The defeat of a nuclear power in a conventional war may trigger a nuclear war," Medvedev, who serves as deputy chairman of Putin's powerful security council, said in a post on Telegram.

"Nuclear powers have never lost major conflicts on which their fate depends," said Medvedev, who served as president from 2008 to 2012.

Medvedev said NATO and other defence leaders, due to meet at Ramstein Air Base in Germany on Friday to talk about strategy and support for the West's attempt to defeat Russia in Ukraine, should think about the risks of their policy.

Read more: https://news.yahoo.com/putin-ally-medve ... 58491.html

[Xyls]

^No one cares.

[ibm9000]

If a missile hits Poland, it cannot be Ukrainian.
If a Russian missile hits a civilian building, it cannot be because the Ukrainian AA sent it there.
Zelensky said that helicopters cannot have accidents. He has decided, again, what the truth is.

It sounds a lot like Latin America in the good old days.

[weatheriscool]

Biden administration announces new $2.5 billion security aid package for Ukraine
Source: CNN Politics

CNN — The Pentagon announced a $2.5 billion Ukraine security package on Thursday, including for the first time Stryker armored vehicles and more Bradley fighting vehicles that could be used against any potential Russian offensive in Ukraine this spring.

The package, publicized one day before an international coalition meets in Germany to discuss more aid to Ukraine, is the second largest ever announced by the United States. The largest totaled more than $3 billion and was announced earlier this month.

The latest package includes 90 Stryker armored personnel carriers and 59 more Bradley infantry fighting vehicles. The previous package included 50 Bradleys – bringing the total given to more than 100.

The latest package also includes ammunition for the HIMARS rocket system that Ukraine has used to great effect against Russian weapons depots and command posts, as well as additional munitions and systems for aerial defense, which the Pentagon has identified as an ongoing priority.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics ... index.html

[funkervogt]

Russia is building up its army for a massive operation in Ukraine in the next six months. It could take the form of a new offensive, or a defensive meant to destroy any Ukrainian offensive into Russian-held territory.

https://understandingwar.org/background ... ry-15-2023

The intelligence agencies of various Western countries have doubtless reported this to their leaders, and I believe it explains their recent announcements to donate more advanced tanks and other weapons to Ukraine. If it applies enough force in 2023, Russia could still win.

Putin has not given up on the idea of taking over all of Ukraine through a combination of massive territorial gains and forced regime change in Kiev. There is also no real evidence than Putin is terminally ill or close to being overthrown, nor is the Russian economy poised to collapse.

I was right.

CIA Director Bill Burns briefed Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in Kyiv last week on the US’ expectations for Russia’s battlefield planning in the spring, according to a US official and two Ukrainian sources familiar with the meeting.

The secret meeting comes as US officials are closely monitoring a potential Russian offensive in the coming months – and in the midst of a fraught debate between the US and its European allies over whether to send increasingly sophisticated and long-range weaponry to Ukraine.

https://www.cnn.com/2023/01/19/politics ... index.html

[ibm9000]

The 200.000 reservists could had been a clue...

[erowind]

.

[ibm9000]

An American general (the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, actually) said that Russia has suffered more than 100.000 casualties; probably, another 100.000 for Ukraine too. He should know the actual number for Ukraine, US is supplying its army, at least a very good approximation. He also
mention a significant amount of economic damage.
According to the BND the Ukrainian army is suffering 3 digits casualties every day.
What side can take more casualties?

I don't think we can call this wishful thinking, more like the analysis of a crude reality.

There was a point about how many of the new Russian soldiers would be battle worthy, but not about how many of the new Ukrainian soldiers would be battle worthy; maybe that was a bit of wishful thinking.
Also, a comment about "Russia running out of ammo". Ukraine has no ammo, only what it gets from foreign countries. (Actually, it seems that it is able to make some amount or artillery ammo).

From thedrive, just in case.

[wjfox]

Ukraine to create 1,000 unit kamikaze drone fleet with charity fundraising

By MICHAEL STARR
Published: JANUARY 21, 2023 22:51

A Ukrainian intelligence unit is seeking to create a 1000 unit suicide drone fleet through fundraising, the "Kryla" unit announced on Friday.

The first person view (FPV) kamikaze drones have "become a truly revolutionary means of combat," according to the Ukrainian Intelligence unit, which compared its utility to that of a sniper rifle that could be operated from 10 kilometers away.

Like a sniper, an operator can use such a drone to perform precision strikes, direct fire from other platforms, and provide intelligence on the enemy and surroundings.

"Installed cameras and modern means of communication allow the operator to control the aircraft in "real time" mode, while remaining at a safe [distance]," said the Defense Ministry's intelligence division. "This helps preserve the lives of our defenders while effectively destroy enemy equipment and personnel."

Low-flying drones can provide a real-time bird's eye view of the immediate area, a vital tool for ground troops who are otherwise blind to the location of the enemy, what actions they're taking, and what is behind hills, trees, and buildings.

https://www.jpost.com/international/article-729198

[ibm9000]

Again?
"Poland ready to give 14 Leopards". No pressure on US to give 14 Abrams?

And then...

This is a land war. No war was ever won by snipers. No war was ever won by a magic/new weapon.
It is a good thing to put things in context.

[ººº]

No war was ever won by a magic/new weapon.

WW2(Pacific theatre)?

[Yuli Ban]

Not quite. WW2 was already essentially over by the time we bombed the Japanese. If anything, it was the Soviet Union going to war with Japan that really got them to capitulate.