Russia Watch Thread

[Vector]

[Vector]

[Vector]

[Time_Traveller]

Russia Deploys 10,200 Soldiers In Belarus, Not Enough For Attack On Ukraine: Border Guard

12/28/22 AT 11:43 PM

Russia has stationed more than 10,000 soldiers in Belarus, Serhiy Deyneko, the head of the State Border Guard Service of Ukraine, revealed Wednesday during a national newscast.

Around 10,200 servicemen from the Russian Armed Forces have been deployed in Russia's western neighbor, Deyneko said, as per the Ukrainian outlet Pravda.

The amassed troops are not enough to attack Ukraine, he claimed.

Deyneko's remarks came as Russian and Belarusian forces conducted joint military drills at an undisclosed location in Belarus.

The troops, part of a regional group of forces, conducted the exercises "to practice tactical elements, use of weapons, medical and engineering skills, as well as driving combat vehicles across rough terrain," Russia's Defense Ministry said Wednesday, according to Russian state-owned news agency TASS.

https://www.ibtimes.com/russia-deploys- ... rd-3651773

[Vector]

[Time_Traveller]

Reznikov warns Russians of 'one week left' before Putin closes borders

December 31, 2022 1:37 am

Ukrainian Defense Minister Oleksii Reznikov warned Russian citizens in a video address on Dec. 30 that Russia's leadership is preparing a new wave of mobilization and plans to close the border within a week.

"I know for a fact that you have about one week left before you still have any choice," Reznikov said, speaking in Russian.

"In early January, the Russian authorities will close the borders to men, declare martial law, and begin another wave of mobilization. Borders will also be closed in Belarus," he said.

Earlier on Dec. 30, Kyrylo Budanov, head of Ukraine's Intelligence Directorate, said in an interview with the BBC that Russia is planning a new wave of mobilization starting Jan. 5 due to a lack of manpower.

Russia has lost over 100,000 soldiers in its war against Ukraine, according to the latest figures by the General Staff of Ukraine's Armed Forces. Suffering defeats on the battlefield, Russia has also had to rely on the Kremlin-backed private mercenary Wager Group to bolster its forces, who are known to recruit from among Russian prisons to fill ranks.

https://kyivindependent.com/national/re ... ders-close

[Time_Traveller]

Russia seeks closer military ties with China: What it could mean?

[Vector]

[Vector]

Happy new year greetings from Khabarovsk

[funkervogt]

Don't trust official Ukrainian claims about the future of the War or Putin.

A COUP to boot "cancer-stricken" Vladimir Putin from power is already underway, Ukraine's spy chief has claimed.

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, 36, believes the tyrant's calamitous war in Ukraine will hit a "breaking point" in summer and be over before the end of the year.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5337781/co ... -underway/

[caltrek]

Don't trust official Ukrainian claims about the future of the War or Putin.

A COUP to boot "cancer-stricken" Vladimir Putin from power is already underway, Ukraine's spy chief has claimed.

Major General Kyrylo Budanov, 36, believes the tyrant's calamitous war in Ukraine will hit a "breaking point" in summer and be over before the end of the year.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/5337781/co ... -underway/

Newsweek is carrying a similar article:

https://www.newsweek.com/coup-putin-rus ... ov-1706685

Time will tell. Perhaps even then not the complete story. Something historians will attempt to sort out.

[funkervogt]

Another failure. Don't put any stock in claims, even from credible-sounding people, that Putin is on the verge of death or downfall.

'I think he'll be gone by 2023 - but probably into the sanatorium, from which he will not emerge as the leader of Russia.'

'I'm not saying he won't emerge from the sanatorium, but he won't emerge as the leader of Russia any longer.

'That's a way to sort of move things on without a coup,' he concluded.

https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/articl ... orium.html

[raklian]

Well, either way, Putin is not achieving his objectives he set when he invaded Ukraine.

[funkervogt]

Well, either way, Putin is not achieving his objectives he set when he invaded Ukraine.

I didn't say otherwise. Invading Ukraine in 2022 was the biggest mistake of his life (up to this point).

[caltrek]

If a coup is underway, it seems to be happening in slow motion. Very slow motion.

[funkervogt]

A newly produced battle tank immediately sent to the front and shot by a Ukrainian Javelin missile still counts as a nominal contribution to Russian GDP.

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/russian- ... re-working

[weatheriscool]

Russia's budget deficit soars as energy revenues slump by almost half
Source: Financial Times

Russia’s budget deficit reached Rbs1.76tn ($25bn) in January as the Kremlin boosted defence spending and western sanctions began to hit the country’s oil and gas revenue.

...

Revenue from oil and gas fell 46 per cent year on year to Rbs426bn, the finance ministry said on Monday, blaming the drop on falling prices for Urals, its main crude export blend, and a decline in natural gas exports. Urals has traded at a significant discount to the global Brent benchmark since the conflict began in late February 2022.

Expenditure ballooned 59 per cent year on year to Rbs3.12tn in January 2023, amid largely classified plans to increase defence spending to Rbs3.5tn this year. Ukrainian officials have warned in recent days that they believe Russia is set to launch a major offensive in the coming weeks to mark the first anniversary of the confli

ct.

The preliminary monthly figures — the first since western countries introduced a price cap and partial embargo on Russia’s oil last December — mean that the deficit is already about 60 per cent of the level expected for the duration of this year. The finance ministry said it remained on track to meet its budgetary targets for 2023.

Read more: https://www.ft.com/content/3def31b3-ca3 ... 08ac6dfb44

[caltrek]

One thing to bear in mind when comparing Russia with the West is the capacity to endure suffering. It may be demonstrably clear that Russia is suffering more from the war than the West. Still, its government may be in a "better" position to impose suffering upon its people. There may be a perception that there is simply no alternative. In the West, there are elections and the prospect of destabilizing governments through mass protest. While theoretically possible in Russia, actual on the ground conditions are such that the Russian government is more stable.

One possibility is that this does not apply to Putin himself. Still, in Russia the government has a clear power superiority over the economically based oligarchs. Something that is pretty much the reverse in the West.

[ººº]

One thing to bear in mind when comparing Russia with the West is the capacity to endure suffering. It may be demonstrably clear that Russia is suffering more from the war than the West. Still, its government may be in a "better" position to impose suffering upon its people. There may be a perception that there is simply no alternative. In the West, there are elections and the prospect of destabilizing governments through mass protest. While theoretically possible in Russia, actual on the ground conditions are such that the Russian government is more stable.

One possibility is that this does not apply to Putin himself. Still, in Russia the government has a clear power superiority over the economically based oligarchs. Something that is pretty much the revers in the West.

I should point out that Ukraine in particular is suffering more than Russia, after all the war is taking place on its territory unlike Russia.

[caltrek]

Investigators Indicate Supply of Missile Used to Down MH17 Jet Probably Involved Putin Approval
by Moly Quel
February 8, 2023

Introduction:

THE HAGUE, Netherlands (Courthouse News) — An international investigation team looking into the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17 says they have evidence showing “strong indications” that Russian President Vladimir Putin signed off personally on the transport of the weapon used to bring down the passenger jet.

The Joint Investigation Team announced in a press conference on Wednesday that they had finalized their investigation and that Putin’s immunity as a head of state would keep him from being prosecuted for the tragedy, despite evidence linking him to the 2014 disaster that killed 298 people.

“After 8.5 years the JIT has exhausted all avenues for investigation,” Dutch prosecutor Digna van Boetzelaer told reporters.

The news comes months after the Netherlands convicted three men who supplied the BUK missile that shot down the Boeing 777 from the sky as it flew from Amsterdam to Kuala Lumpur. A fourth man was acquitted. The men were tried in absentia and none are in Dutch custody.

Much of the evidence used in the trial came from the JIT, a five-country joint investigation team led by the Netherlands, which concluded that a Russian military bridge transported the surface-to-air missile across the border into Ukraine just days before the disaster. Moscow has denied any involvement.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/missile ... tors-say/