Climate Change News & Discussions

[caltrek]

Eastern Pacific Warming to Change Surface Temperatures in Years, Not Decades
by Kendra Leon
November 15, 2022

Introduction:

(Courthouse News) — For some time, scientists believed 2070 was the earliest they would be able to detect a change in the Pacific Ocean’s surface temperature. A study published Tuesday in Nature Communications moves that projection up by four decades, to 2030.

Dr. Tao Geng of the CSIRO Oceans and Atmosphere and Dr. Wenju Cai of the Pilot National Laboratory for Marine Science and Technology focused their study on the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), what they called “the strongest and most consequential year-to-year climate fluctuation on the planet.” Every year with some variability in either the equatorial eastern Pacific (EP) or central Pacific (CP), ENSO creates worldwide natural events during its warm El Niño phase or cold La Niña phase.

Previous measurements of EP-ENSO and CP-ENSO had biases when it came to that variability, according to the study.

“Climate models suffer from persistent biases in their simulation of the mean equatorial climate and ENSO dynamics,” said the researchers in their study. Although some of their models continued to simulate a “too-cold climatological Pacific cold tongue,” they never fell before their 85% confidence level, and the researchers accounted for the underestimated EP-ENSO rainfall sensitivity. Combining this with 70 years of ENSO data starting from 1950 and some of the newest climate models, the researchers predict that environmental change will happen, including the Pacific Ocean's rising surface temperature, by 2030.

According to Geng, the rising surface temperature of the eastern Pacific will affect ENSO.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/eastern ... -decades/

[weatheriscool]

Sea level rise to dramatically speed up erosion of rock coastlines by 2100
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-sea-erosi ... lines.html
by Imperial College London

Rock coasts, which make up over half the world's coastlines, could retreat more rapidly in the future due to accelerating sea level rise.

This is according to new Imperial College London research that modeled likely future cliff retreat rates of two rock coasts in the UK. The forecasts are based on predictions of sea level rise for various greenhouse gas emissions and climate change scenarios. The research is published today in Nature Communications.

The study found that rock coasts, traditionally thought of as stable compared to sandy coasts and soft cliffs, are likely to retreat at a rate not seen for 3,000–5,000 years.

At the UK study sites in Yorkshire and Devon, this will cause rock coast cliffs to retreat by at least 10–22 meters inland. This rate of erosion is likely between three and seven times today's rate, and potentially up to tenfold.

Senior author Dr. Dylan Rood, of Imperial's Department of Earth Science said, "Coastal erosion is one of the greatest financial risks to society of any natural hazard. Some rock cliffs are already crumbling, and within the next century, rock coast erosion rates could increase tenfold. Even rock coasts that have been stable in the last hundred years will likely respond to sea level rise by 2030."

[wjfox]

[Tadasuke]

I very much recommend reading this about Arctic ice and the past predictions:
https://www.humanprogress.org/is-the-ar ... disappear/

[wjfox]

I very much recommend reading this about Arctic ice and the past predictions:
https://www.humanprogress.org/is-the-ar ... disappear/

Maybe stick to your CPU and GPU posts (which are excellent, btw) instead of peddling disinformation from fossil fuel industry-funded websites.

[Tadasuke]

Maybe stick to your CPU and GPU posts (which are excellent, btw) instead of peddling disinformation from fossil fuel industry-funded websites.

I find climate change alarmism and misinformation detrimental to the well-being of humans and causing no good, because the cost-curves are going to be the same no matter how many scary headlines and comments are going to be written. In fact, I think climate change alarmism is a net-negative to the whole humanity. I saw hundreds of articles at Human Progress and I haven't seen any 'fossil fuel propaganda'. People will do something positive and substantial when it's economical, not when they are scared. In fact, people tend to do bad things when they are scared. I think they are presenting very good proof that they are right and correct. I find it a horrible, horrible thing to do to tell people that by leaving subsistence-level of living and scarcity behind, they are "destroying the planet". And people like Greta Thunberg aren't doing anything that actually helps solve any problems.

[erowind]

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[caltrek]

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I find climate change alarmism and misinformation detrimental to the well-being of humans and causing no good, because the cost-curves are going to be the same no matter how many scary headlines and comments are going to be written...

Absolutely no ecologist acting in good faith has suggested that developing nations be kept in the living conditions they face. Malthusianism is a false dichotomy, there are enough resources for us all to live comfortable middle class lives. Some inefficiencies like private car ownership in non-rural settings have to be replaced with mass electrification and proliferation of trains and other public transit. But there is no ecologically sound future where the majority of the world is kept poor. That said, development should not be conflated with the spread of consumerism and the “right” to an endless deluge of plastic.

The malthusian position is also pushed by the fossil fuel industry deliberately because if they can convince people that solving the ecological crises requires preventing improving living conditions than of course most people will oppose solutions. The bar just keeps moving every decade or so and eventually they will run out of lies to peddle as reality waits for no one. First it was, “climate change isn’t real,” then “there’s no proof humans caused climate change,” then “climate change is beneficial actually,” and finally, “fixing climate change will make you poor!” All lies!!!

The one aspect of truth here that is completely distorted and misrepresented by bad faith actors. Is that we in the developed nations will have to give up some things because we have genuinely created excess at the cost of everyone else, but even here a degrowth of some production sectors won’t effect most people.

Agreed. A very good summary.

Things like owning more than one car, owning a megayacht, owning more than a small cabin and a single modest home (less than 2,000sft per household of 4 or less,) will have to be outlawed. The suburbs in America and Canada will have to be slowly abolished as they are the most wasteful form of urban planning ever “designed.”

There are large changes that must be made but none of them threaten the lives or wellbeing of the majority of the population. In contrast they will improve our lives. The eventual abolition of most private car ownership will instantly reduce stress levels and make air clean to breath, it will reduce emissions immensely. Eventually factory farming will have to be banned, but the meat we will consume will be lab grown and made more perfectly than ever. Monoculture lawn ownership must be banned but we will save countless labor hours and most will opt to tend private gardens of some kind instead, which are far more useful, beautiful and ecologically valuable.

I am not sure that I endorse this list, but it is clear that dramatic action needs to be taken.

As for the predictions on that website, no! Arctic sea ice at the current rate of decline will be gone in September sometime in the 2030-2060 timeframe, no one knows the exact year for sure but there is a solid scientifically verifiable time range. The consequences of a blue water arctic in the summer (and eventually all year) will destabilize the entire northern hemispheres climate even more dramatically than we have experienced in recent years.

I am not sure about the exact time frames, but it is clear that ice in the polar regions is declining at a rapid rate.

There’s nothing “alarmist” about the truth! There’s nothing “alarmist” about screaming at a person to get out of the way of an oncoming train as they wander down the tracks. We need more truthful climate science in media that will force action. Fatalism is a consumer response encouraged by our dominant culture and media, not everyone responds that way, to the opposite effect many people facing climate despair find that taking action is the only thing that alleviates the feeling.

An excellent conclusion.

[caltrek]

Scientists Warn that Unabated Carbon Is Shrinking Earth's Upper Atmosphere
by Michele Starr
November 22, 2022

Introduction:

(Science Alert) Rising levels of carbon dioxide in Earth's atmosphere could exacerbate efforts to clean up our increasingly cluttered shell of orbiting space junk.

According to two new studies, the greenhouse gas has significantly contributed to the contraction of the upper atmosphere. This contraction has been hypothesized for decades; now, for the first time, it's been actually observed.

Some of the observed shrinkage is normal, and will bounce back; but the contribution made by CO2 is, scientists say, probably permanent.

This means that defunct satellites and other bits of old technology in low Earth orbit is likely to remain in place longer due to the reduction of atmospheric drag, cluttering up the region and causing problems for newer satellites and space observations.

Read more here: https://www.sciencealert.com/unabated- ... ists-warn

[caltrek]

Rapidly Melting Glaciers Are Releasing a Staggering Payload of Unknown Bacteria
by Clare Watson
November 22, 2022

Introduction:

(Science Alert) Fast-melting glaciers are releasing staggering amounts of bacteria into rivers and streams, which could transform icy ecosystems, scientists warn.

In a study of glacial runoff from 10 sites across the Northern Hemisphere, researchers have estimated that continued global warming over the next 80 years could release hundreds of thousands of tonnes of bacteria into environments downstream of receding glaciers.

"We think of glaciers as a huge store of frozen water but the key lesson from this research is that they are also ecosystems in their own right," microbiologist and study author Arwyn Edwards of Aberystwyth University in the UK told the BBC.

Glaciers are masses of ice creeping ever so slowly toward the sea, carving out mountainous valleys as they go. Yet there is more to the flows than frozen water, with minerals, gases, and organic materials trapped on a one-way slide that could take tens of thousands to millions of years to terminate.

Studying the contents of glaciers is like opening the door to another time in history. Microbes entombed inside them could be a rich source of useful, new compounds, such as antibiotics. However, the researchers behind this new study say melting glaciers are releasing tonnes upon tonnes of bacteria faster than scientists can possibly catalog them.

Read more here: https://www.sciencealert.com/rapidly-m ... -bacteria

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New Steel Production Produces Water as A By-Product Instead Of Carbon Dioxide
by Cr. Beccy Corkill
November 16, 2022

Introduction:

(IFL News) This November, many important decision-makers and climate activists descended on the Egyptian coastal city of Sharm El-Sheikh for the 27th Conference of the Parties of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP27).

During this event, vital climate decisions were discussed with the aim to try and tackle the increasingly critical climate emergency. This included ways to fight climate change and solutions to help reduce global greenhouse gas emissions.

Steel is essential in modern-day living. It is found in our houses, bridges, cars, medical equipment, and so much more. Unfortunately, the steel industry is one of the world’s largest contributors to global warming: in 2020, it contributed around 7 to 9 percent of global CO2 emissions.

Traditionally, steel is produced by the blast furnace, a process that is centuries old. In fact, the first ever blast furnace appeared in the 14th century and produced approximately 1 ton of steel a day. It was a process that used coal and coke and this, in turn, produced invaluable steel, but also a more harmful by-product – CO2.

SSAB is a Swedish steel company that has reinvented the steelmaking process and aims to offer fossil-free steel on an industrial scale as early as 2026.

Read more here: https://www.iflscience.com/new-steel-p ... ide-66229

The new technology is called HYBRIT and is also described here: https://www.ssab.com/en/fossil-free-st ... technology

[weatheriscool]

Dieback of the Amazon rainforest under climate change in the latest Earth system models
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-dieback-a ... atest.html
by University of Exeter

Dieback of the Amazon rainforest has long been touted as a possible climate tipping point, even though only a small minority of Earth System Models were projecting dieback.

A new study by researchers at the University of Exeter shows that this situation has now changed. Among the latest Earth System Models which simulate changes in forest carbon, most models now produce dieback events due to climate change in Amazonia.

Previous studies had suggested that once the tipping point is crossed in the Amazon, the whole region would experience severe dieback, but the new study—published in the journal Earth System Dynamics—finds that many of the latest models instead project localized dieback events.

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

Study shows that strongest Arctic cyclone on record led to surprising loss of sea ice

by Hannah Hickey, University of Washington
https://phys.org/news/2022-11-strongest ... s-sea.html

A warming climate is causing a decline in sea ice in the Arctic Ocean, where loss of sea ice has important ecological, economic and climate impacts. On top of this long-term shift due to climate change are weather events that affect the sea ice from week to week.

The strongest Arctic cyclone ever observed poleward of 70 degrees north latitude struck in January 2022 northeast of Greenland. A new analysis led by the University of Washington shows that while weather forecasts accurately predicted the storm, ice models seriously underestimated its impact on the region's sea ice.

The study, published in October in the Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, suggests that existing models underestimate the impact of big waves on ice floes in the Arctic Ocean.

"The loss of sea ice in six days was the biggest change we could find in the historical observations since 1979, and the area of ice lost was 30% greater than the previous record," said lead author Ed Blanchard-Wrigglesworth, a research assistant professor of atmospheric sciences at the UW. "The ice models did predict some loss, but only about half of what we saw in the real world."

[caltrek]

Renewed Climate Disinformation Campaigns Threaten COP27 Progress
by Kristoffer Tigue & Bob Berwyn
November 22, 2022

Introduction:

(Undark) THE SLOW PACE of global climate talks were once again on display at COP27 last week and can be partially explained by a renewed blitz of climate disinformation, according to watchdog groups that analyze media ecosystems.

Last week, the Climate Action Against Disinformation coalition released a new analysis of efforts to undermine climate action and found that false and misleading claims made by right-wing media outlets about global warming and clean energy continue to affect public perception about the climate crisis. The fossil fuel industry, the authors said, is riding that wave of disinformation into the climate talks to promote false solutions.

“Misinformation has sowed uncertainty and impeded the recognition of risk…and the rise of climate misinformation is undermining climate action here at COP27,” Jacob Dubbins, a coauthor of the new report, said at a COP27 press conference.

The report said that Fox News remains a significant source of false and misleading information about the climate crisis, fueling unfounded public skepticism in a way that could even inspire violence against policymakers who advocate for strong climate action.

The report included a scientific survey on the media consumption habits of thousands of people in six different countries: Brazil, Australia, India, Germany, the United Kingdom, and the United States. It found that Americans, especially those who regularly watch Fox News, are the most likely among the study’s participants in all six countries to hold false beliefs about global warming.

Read more here: https://undark.org/2022/11/22/renewed- ... progress/

[wjfox]

[weatheriscool]

The first complete picture of Arctic sea ice freeze-thaw cycle highlights sea ice response to climate change
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-picture-a ... -thaw.html
by European Geosciences Union

Years of research show that climate change signals are amplified in the Arctic, and that sea ice in this region is sensitive to increases in Arctic warming. Sea ice greatly modifies the exchanges of heat, momentum and mass between the atmosphere and the ocean. So, the timings of the sea ice melt and freeze onsets, as well as the length of the melt and freeze seasons, play a key role in the "heat budget" of the atmosphere-ice-ocean system.

Until now, most studies calculated the Arctic melt and freeze onsets using remote sensing observations from the surface, but rarely investigated the freeze-thaw process at ice bottom.

In a new study published today in the European Geosciences Union journal The Cryosphere, an international team of scientists synthesized multisource data from 2001 to 2018 to explore the spatiotemporal variations of both surface and basal melt/freeze onsets and uncover the mechanism behind them. These findings could improve our understanding of changes in the atmosphere–ice–ocean system and the mass balance of sea ice in a changing Arctic.

[weatheriscool]

Warming climate spurs harmful oxygen loss in lakes
https://phys.org/news/2022-12-climate-s ... lakes.html
by Blaine Friedlander, Cornell University

Rondaxe Lake in Herkimer County, New York, represents classic Adirondack Park waters. But over the last quarter-century, Rondaxe—like thousands of lakes in temperate zones around the world—has been losing a global-warming battle to maintain oxygen in its waters.

New research from Cornell University and Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute shows a continually warming world is leading to extended, late-summer weeks of water stratification, which prompts oxygen deprivation in the water—provoking conditions called hypoxia (low oxygen) and anoxia (no oxygen)—and negative consequences for fish and other species.

The work published Dec. 6 in the journal Global Change Biology.

"Lakes with dissolved oxygen losses strongly outnumber those with gains," said lead author Stephen Jane, a postdoctoral fellow at the Cornell Atkinson Center for Sustainability. "At large scales, aerobic organisms are losing available habitat as warming of lakes continues. This is particularly the case for organisms that rely on well-oxygenated cool waters deep in lakes to survive warm periods."

[wjfox]

[erowind]

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