Kyiv Reinforcing Belarus Border by Howard Altman
November 9, 2022
Introduction:
(The Drive) Despite expending tremendous resources on ongoing counteroffensives in the south and east, Ukrainian officials on Wednesday talked about how they continue to prepare the northern border with Belarus, and Kyiv itself, against the potential for an attack.
Ukrainian Northern Group soldiers "are preparing for active defense in the event of a repeated attack by the Kremlin invaders from the territory of the Republic of Belarus and the Russian Federation,” the Ukrainian Ministry of Defense (MOD) said Wednesday. “We will no longer wait for the enemy in the trenches. Active fire damage for the occupiers will begin from the moment they cross the state border with Ukraine, our defenders assure.”
Highways, forests and settlements “will become a trap for the enemy," Ukraine's MOD said. "All possible methods of action will be used to repel possible aggression from the ‘neighbors.’"
During the initial phase of Russia’s all-out invasion of Ukraine, Russian troops came down from the north through Belarus. But their long line of vehicles famously got bogged down thanks to poor planning, poor training, and poor logistics and was picked off by Ukrainian attacks
Wait, you think that we have people who actually think that somebody wins a war? Besides the CEO of some companies... and their Board of Directors... and some Senator's sons... and the generals who got medals and promotions...
Wait, you think that we have people who actually think that somebody wins a war? Besides the CEO of some companies... and their Board of Directors... and some Senator's sons... and the generals who got medals and promotions...
Kremlin says Kherson's status as 'part of Russia' unchanged despite retreat
MOSCOW, Nov 11 (Reuters) - The Kremlin said on Friday that Russian forces' withdrawal from Kherson would not change the status of the region, which Moscow has proclaimed part of Russia after moving to annex it from Ukraine.
Russia claimed Kherson and three other Ukrainian regions after holding what it called referendums in September – votes that were denounced by Kyiv and Western governments as illegal and coercive. But on Wednesday, in a major retreat, it announced its forces would pull out of Kherson city in the face of a major Ukrainian counter-offensive.
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters the region's status was "fixed" and that no changes were possible.
"It is a subject of the Russian Federation - it is legally fixed and defined. There are no changes and there can be no changes," Peskov said.
He said Russia did not regret announcing the annexation of Kherson and the other three regions in a triumphal ceremony in Moscow on Sept. 30.
In the Kremlin's first public comments since Defence Minister Sergei Shoigu announced Russian forces would withdraw from Kherson city to the opposite side of the River Dnipro, Peskov said it was a decision taken by the defence ministry and he had "nothing to add."
Now that Kherson and the entire west side of the Dnieper is back in control and we are heading into the winter. Ukraine needs to decide where they put resources to keep the momentum going. I HIGHLY doubt this strategy is going to be them crossing the Dnieper during the next few months, but at the same time they don't want to give Russia the opportunity to regroup themselves for too long.
So does that mean they instead direct resources to Luhansk and go all in towards Svatove and taking northern Luhansk? The downsides here is that they could just cauldron themselves being surrounded by Russia on all sides so this may not be the best course of action although I doubt Russia could really take advantage of this at the moment? Do they essentially just focus on degrading logistics within HIMARS range for the next while? This may be good operationally speaking but could zap momentum, especially if they keep trying to to besiege Crimea? Should they try to attack Zaporizhizhia and retake the ZNPP and drive towards Mariupol as this is probably where Russian lines are currently weakest?
Ukraine has choices at the moment, but I'm not actually sure what the best answer is here? We will have to see what the Ukrainians come up with.
Also the destabilization within Russia is growing... I don't like to predict that the Russian government will collapse, but it's not an impossible scenario. And it's not clear what that would mean for the war depending on who would assume power in place of Putin. Honestly, Putin leaving office is not even probably the best scenario at the moment, because if a delusional hawk comes to power the nuclear threat could dramatically increase again.
But, what happened to those hundreds of tanks and artillery pieces, to the thousands of casualties, the tens of thousands of prisoners?
Ukraine having so many soldiers, such good generals, plenty of ammo, missiles, HIMARS...
Russia said that it was leaving and it left.
No, I didn't. I couldn't see any "DoD" in NOËL @NOELreports tweet.
I call you whitewasher, you call me unreasonable... It's all good, as far as I can remember there is only one word that we cannot use.
Juust to set the record straight, I did not call you unreasonable. Perhaps you are referring to this:
I have to admit for my part it is very hard to not simply respond that both of you guys are being so unreasonable and extreme that I can't talk to either of you, besides which in war everybody loses.
So, I was talking about what I was tempted to do. It is all more complicated than calling you unreasonable.
Drawing lines in a map is a bit like colouring books?
You split that area in two, each one with its own LOC, what's the point? What is the bridging capability of the Ukrainian army?, can it protect its own LOC?, what amount of supplies are needed?, how long is going to take the campaign?, reinforcements and western ammo is guaranteed?, how can Russia interfere... and a few more things.
Russia’s Demolition of Roadway Over Dam Seen In Incredible Video by Stetson Payne
November , 2022
Introduction:
(The Drive) Footage shows Russian forces blowing the bridge at Nova Kakhovka Dam after fleeing the Dnieper’s western bank on November 11.
The massive explosion left a huge cloud of smoke in its wake and brilliant secondary explosions at nearby transmission lines. Attacks on Russian positions in the nearby city reportedly continued after the bridge blew, as well.
(See article linked below for Twitter feeds)
Ukrainian strikes targeted this and other Russian-held crossings on the Dnieper throughout the summer, notably the Antonivsky Bridge closer to the city of Kherson. New drone footage showed what remains of the bridge partially submerged in the Dnieper.
Kyiv claimed in October that Russia had rigged the dam to explode, threatening to flood areas downstream to cover its retreat. In our exclusive interview with Ukraine's intel chief, Maj. Gen. Kyrylo Budanov, he made it clear the roadways are likely Russia's target:
