2022 midterm election thread

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caltrek
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Many Experts Say That the Midterms Did Not Show a ‘Red Wave’ Thanks to Gen Z Voters
by Natalie Hanson
November 10, 2022

Introduction:
(Courthouse News) — Experts say widespread wins for Democrats on Tuesday night are defying early poll predictions of a “red wave” because Gen Z voters turned out in high numbers, signaling their concern for the rights of all Americans.

Across the U.S., while control of Congress is not yet settled and early results leave many ballots — including those mailed in — uncounted, Democratic wins are already being called. Candidates who embraced former president Donald Trump’s "big lie" about the 2020 election were widely defeated, while those Republican candidates who did triumph Tuesday largely did so by distancing themselves from the former president. And 25-year-old Democrat Maxwell Frost looks to have secured Florida's House of Representatives seat based in Orlando, as the first Gen Z member of Congress — after working for the anti-gun violence group March for Our Lives.

Antonio Arellano, vice president of the youth mobilization organization Next Gen America, said on Twitter that the Edison Research National Election Pool exit poll is showing that voters aged 18-29 were the only age group where more than half supported Democrats. The Tufts Center for Information and Research on Civic Learning and Engagement reported Wednesday that 2022 youth turnout is likely the second-highest for a midterm election in the past 30 years, behind only the historic 31% turnout in 2018. Votes from young people made up 12% overall in this election, nearly matching the 13% youth share of the vote from the 2014 and 2018 midterms.

Those results align with a Harvard Kennedy School Institute of Politics poll of 2,123 18-to-29-year-olds this fall which indicated that 40% would “definitely" vote in the midterm elections, and 57% said they preferred Democratic control of Congress.


Further Extract:
All of the experts agreed that polling is more difficult than ever because most people ignore spam calls, emails, texts and front door visits during election season — except for senior voters. But (Kamy) Akhavan (executive director at the USC Dornsife Center for the Political Future) also said Gen Z is better educated than prior generations and has experienced the Great Recession, record political polarization, a pandemic, worsening climate change and “racial unrest.”
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/the-mid ... erts-say/
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Trump May Have Gotten His Pink Slip in 2022 Midterm Elections
by Thomas F. Harrison
November 9, 2022

Introduction:
(Courthouse News) — The biggest loser of Tuesday’s election wasn’t even on the ballot.

Candidates who were endorsed by former President Donald Trump or who expressed loyalty to him underperformed across the board, turning what could have been a massive red wave into a ripple and energizing opposition to him within his own party as he appears to be preparing another presidential bid.

Tuesday’s results “will have a major negative effect on Trump’s candidacy,” said Terry Madonna, a former director of the Franklin & Marshall Poll.

“The bloom is off the rose, if you can ever call Trump a rose,” said a highly placed Washington, D.C., lobbyist who requested anonymity in order to speak freely. “He’s not the invincible candidate for the nomination that he was in 2016.”

A lot of the Republican rank and file will now start moving away from Trump, predicted Andrew Smith, director of the University of New Hampshire Survey Center.

“They saw that he doesn’t have a winning formula,” he said. “Candidates with a Trump message don’t win. The emperor has no clothes.”
Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/trump-g ... lections/

caltrek's comment: It is not so much that his message can't win, it is that the messengers need to act in a somewhat less batshit crazy manner. As pointed out later in the article, "immigration, bringing back manufacturing jobs and the threat posed by China" remain potent issues for the GOP to push forward upon. A toned-down approach on the cultural war issues, with a return to more nuanced and subtle coded messages may, regrettably, still be a potent if poisonous brew for the hard right.
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^^^I can hardly wait until we start seeing more feeds like this from Mastodon or similar such media source as opposed to Twitter.
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One realization I've come to is that if Trump runs he has next too no chance to win the rust belt. The guy should just retire.
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weatheriscool wrote: Thu Nov 10, 2022 10:14 pm

One realization I've come to is that if Trump runs he has next too no chance to win the rust belt. The guy should just retire.
^^^ I don't understand Michigan politics as well as I would like, but I am very tempted to give Gretchen Whitmer a lot of credit. I still don't understand why Biden went to Kamala Harris instead of Whitmer. The nation's loss and Michigan's gain, I suspect.

I mean, she has been threatened with kidnapping, torture, and assassination. Right wing elements have thrown everything at her and the kitchen sink. She has made a lot of tough decisions in an atmosphere of tension and crisis. Like other states, Michigan has been subject to inflation and the usual problems of crime in the streets. Despite all of that, here she is the leader of a state turning a deeper shade of blue almost by the minute.

Of course, a more up close and personal look might reveal flaws of which I am not aware. In the mean-time...
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