Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

How it started:



How it's going:

[Xyls]

I bet Putin is shitting himself at these American election results right now. The Republicans may not even be able to take back the house and that will likely mean a lot more arms coming for Ukraine.

Putin needs to figure out how to get out of this before he loses hundreds of thousands of troops as the Ukraines get even more flooded with weapons.

[ibm9000]

I bet Putin...

"Shitting himself" sounds like a well reasoned political commentary.

Considering that Ukraine has been winning the war for the last 8 months... it is hard to see the need for more weapons, but it is true that Russia will suffer millions of casualties. Actually, is it 100.000 or 200.000 those who have starved to death around Kherson?, because, as we all know, every bridge, barge and pontoon has been destroyed twenty times over (by Puff the Magic Dragon or HIMARS, one or the other). It is obvios that there is an army of zombies in the front line and it has been there for a few... weeks?

If...
the Republicans win, and if the cut the arms supply and this war is ended not on the battlefield... all those deaths in the last weeks would had been for... what exactly?
Yes, I know, a lot of ifs, but not that much fantasy, I hope.

[raklian]

[raklian]

WTF! I don't know why but this made me laugh.

[Time_Traveller]

Russia unlikely to fully repair Crimean Bridge until September 2023 - British intelligence

09.11.2022 11:25

Russian efforts to repair the Crimean Bridge continue but it is unlikely to be fully operational until at least September 2023.
According to Ukrinform, the UK Ministry of Defense said this in its latest intelligence update published on Twitter.

Thus, on 8 November the road bridge was due to be closed to allow the movement and installation of a replacement 64-metre span. Three more spans will be required to replace the damaged road sections.

“Although Crimean officials have claimed these additional spans will be in place by 20 December, a briefing provided to President Putin added that works to the other carriageway would cause disruption to road traffic until March 2023. Replacement of the damaged rail bridge has been contracted for completion by September 2023, although Russia’s Deputy Prime Minister stated the repair timeline would be expedited,” the ministry said.

It is stressed that one track is open, but rail transport remains restricted. Repair activity will be heavily dependent on weather conditions through the winter months.

https://www.ukrinform.net/rubric-ato/36 ... gence.html

[ibm9000]

Goodbye, traitor.

I didn't know lives were so cheap.

I mean, we are not talking of a black or a jew... maybe an indian, a catholic?
We are talking about one human being, correct?

[Xyls]

BREAKING: RUSSIA ORDERS WITHDRAWAL FROM KHERSON



Lives and health of your troops after losing nearly 80k of them so far...

Looooool

[wjfox]

I mean, we are not talking of a black or a jew... maybe an indian, a catholic?

What do you mean by that?

[andmar74]

Wow, the Ukrainian army must really be kicking Russia's ass.

[Xyls]

^ Have been for a long time.

[joe00uk]

Wow, the Ukrainian army must really be kicking Russia's ass.

That's not even the reason though. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson weren't very successful. This is literally just Russia giving up without needing to. Very embarrassing and very cringe on their part, especially given this comes about six weeks after Kherson was officially annexed by the Russian Federation.

[raklian]

Wow, the Ukrainian army must really be kicking Russia's ass.

That's not even the reason though. Recent Ukrainian counteroffensives in Kherson weren't very successful. This is literally just Russia giving up without needing to. Very embarrassing and very cringe on their part, especially given this comes about six weeks after Kherson was officially annexed by the Russian Federation.

[ibm9000]

What do you mean by that?

"I didn't know lives were so cheap.

I mean, we are not talking of a black or a jew... maybe an indian, a catholic?
We are talking about one human being, correct?"

Selecting only the middle line could suggest some (very) biased reading. On the other hand, somebody could read some sarcasm in the comment...
if you read the three lines, of course.

I find (not that much) surprising the lack of any comment about the contemptuous disregard of the loss of a human life, some lives are more equal than others?

[ibm9000]

Wow, the Ukrainian army must really be kicking Russia's ass.

So much, in the last eight months, that Russia still owns (owned) more than 100.00 sq km.

Ukraine has systematically and strategically closed off all supply routes across the Dnipr,

Closed?... No.
All?... No.
Strategically?... What that even means here?

held out at the front and inflicted heavy casualties on the enemy...

Held?... It was attacking.
Heavy casualties?... Do we have the official list from Russia?, a guess?, an estimate?, a fairy tale?
How many casualties did Ukraine suffered to inflict those casualties?

in precision bombing raids. Depleting brigades without the possibility to reinforce properly. The upcoming Russian withdrawal is a victory

I would use the word "attacks", not "raids". Hopefully it doesn't mean that Ukraine invented them nor that it is the only one using them; and they are neither that precise nor that effective, that's why you keep hitting the same target.
Reinforce properly?... Properly?, that's a 100% or a 50%? Wait, I thought "all were closed off".
Victory?... Well, you cannot call Dunkirk a victory... (actually you can, but that's another story.

STRATEGIC WIN

Kiev again... Ukraine is not going to conquer anything, is going to occupy an abandoned "pocket of land".
Strategic?... What are you talking about? Both countries will have now a pretty clear, defensible border, Russia will send more troops to the East, Ukraine will send more troops to the East, what is the gain?, a morale boost? Certainly, less real state lost.

I think that Ukraine can start now kidnapping, torturing and executing "collaborators", it has happened before (always I would say). Do we think the EU is going to send a team to supervise that our higher moral standards are uphold?

I don't know (1100 GMT) if the withdrawal has actually happened.

[Xyls]

Just in case everyone needed a brief rundown of the Special Military Operation so far, seems some people are not up to date (like IBM):

[caltrek]

At least IBM and Xyls are still talking to each other (or is it at least past each other?).

With a twist or two it is something of a microcosm of this whole war situation:

Person (or country) A: You are being so unreasonable and extreme that I can't even talk to you, besides which my side is winning.

Person (or country) B: You are the one who is being so unreasonable and extreme that I can't even talk to you, besides which it is my side that is winning.

I have to admit for my part it is very hard to not simply respond that both of you guys are being so unreasonable and extreme that I can't talk to either of you, besides which in war everybody loses.

&

[caltrek]

Grouping of Russian Units in Belarus Continues To Swell
by Hlib Parfonov
November 10, 2022

Introduction:

(The Jamestown Foundation via Eurasia Review) From the outset of the “partial mobilization” campaign in Russia, processes began taking place in Belarus that created a greater potential for armed escalation in this direction, in particular in northern Ukraine. As such, on October 14, according to Belarusian Foreign Minister Vladimir Makei, Belarus began introducing a counterterrorist operation (CTO) regime to deal with “provocations” from neighboring countries (Izvestiya, October 14).

The announcement of the CTO regime in Belarus did not come as a surprise to Kyiv, as tensions on the border between the two countries have continued to simmer since the start of the war. Military exercises have been held by both sides on the border; in Belarus alone, the exercises have been extended for 27 weeks (blocked_by, October 28). On this, it is no surprise that hidden rotations of Belarusian military units have been regularly taking place along the border with Ukraine (Suspilne.media, July 18; blocked, September 8). Accordingly, it is now highly unlikely that the grouping of Russian troops in Belarus will catch the Ukrainian units by surprise.

Minsk has its own logic for its actions vis-à-vis Moscow’s war against Ukraine. The announcement of the CTO regime was preceded by the growing role of the Kalinowski regiment not only directly in Ukraine but also with the wider Belarusian opposition. For eight months of the war, the regiment has grown into almost the size of a brigade—and enough artillery pieces are available to fully form a brigade. In general, the current number of units already represents more than a regiment. As a result, this poses certain challenges for the Alyaksandr Lukashenka regime, as, for the first time, his opponents are being organized into armed formations with specific political goals to change power in Belarus (Kalinouski.org, accessed November 8).

Recent political actions have led to increased conflict between the official Belarusian opposition in exile, represented by the transitional cabinet of Svetlana Tikhanovskaya, and the Ukrainian authorities (Svoboda, October 14).

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/10112022 ... analysis/

[caltrek]

Strategically?... What that even means here?

stra·te·gic

/strəˈtējik/

adjective
relating to the identification of long-term or overall aims and interests and the means of achieving them.
"the company should take strategic actions to cope with fundamental changes in the environment"

Pentagon Says Russia Suffers ‘Catastrophic Strategic Disaster’ In Ukraine
by Jim Garamone
November 10, 2022

Introduction:

(DoD News via Eurasia Review) Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine has been “a catastrophic strategic disaster,” Colin H. Kahl, the undersecretary of defense for policy, told the Defense Writers’ Group.

Kahl briefed the group about the National Defense Strategy and said that the document lists China as the pacing threat for the United States, but that Russia poses an acute threat. “That term acute, was chosen very intentionally as signifying both immediate and sharp,” he said. 

China has the will and resources to challenge the United States and the rule-based international order that has kept the peace since the end of World War II. But Russia’s unprovoked invasion of Ukraine shows it is a dangerous and reckless state.

Speaking on Election Day, Kahl was asked by reporters asked if U.S. support of Ukraine had bipartisan support. “I think there’s a widespread recognition that the stakes in Ukraine are just bigger than Ukraine,” he said.   

He said elected officials from both parties understand that Ukraine is not only fighting to defend its independence and democracy but is also for a principle. “We don’t want to live in a world where big countries believe that they can swallow up their smaller neighbors,” Kahl said. “That is a recipe for global disorder and large countries going on the march. We’ve lived in a world like that before: it was called the 1930s. And it ended in the most catastrophic global conflict in human history.”  

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/10112022 ... pentagon/

[Xyls]

And when you think those Russians can't go lower they do! As I said Russian boys are just being raised to be meat: