2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

A bright spot for Dems continues to be New Mexico - they're approaching nearly 50% of their total 2020 turnout and it's still nearly D+17 by reg.

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Nevada secretary of state declines to lift hand-count ban
Source: AP

By GABE STERN

RENO, Nev. (AP) — Nevada’s secretary of state declined Friday to lift a ban on a rural county’s controversial early hand-count of mail-in ballots, saying a modified procedure the county clerk proposed still raises “concerns relating to the integrity of the election.”

Republican Secretary of State Barbara Cegavske ordered Nye County last week to halt its hand-counting of ballots until after polls close on Nov. 8. Her order came after the Nevada Supreme Court issued an opinion siding with the American Civil Liberties Union’s objections to the reading of individual votes out loud.

In a letter to the county Friday, Cegavske invited county officials to update or better explain their proposal for a silent hand-count with more details.

But the move makes it increasingly difficult for Nye County to revise, submit, get approval and carry out plans for the hand-count of mail-in ballots before polls close on Election Day.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... 8a1c90d954

[caltrek]

I, like other followers of this thread, have been following poll results with great interest and anticipation. Still, I thought I would pass along some cautionary comments that I have recently heard on various cable news shows.

Something I had wondered about at the back of my mind that was pointed out directly, with some rather startling statistics, is the difficulty pollsters are having contacting likely voters by telephone. One estimate is that it was taking two-and-one half hours per voter actually contacted to actually reach such a voter. This raises obvious questions as to how reliable the polls are given that so many people can no longer be directly reached by telephone.

I also wonder how good a job the polls are at catching voters who registered as a direct result of the overturning of Roe v Wade. We know that there was an upward tick, particularly among younger women voters, in registration, but it is not at all clear to me that pollsters have correctly taken that into account. Polls about what issues are motivating voters seem to be all over the place. In part, I think this is because of the sensitivity too how the question is asked. Things like the placement order and the actual wording of the question can affect the response selected (or volunteered). There is also the great temptation amongst pollsters to push their own agenda by slanting the questions in ways that give a desired response.

In recent elections, Republican pollsters, such as Trafalgar, have actually proven to be the most accurate when compared to actual results. At least when it came to candidate performances. Still, past performance by pollsters is no guarantee of future results. The analogy that occurs is sports. A certain team may win the championship one year, and then have that followed by a bad year.

There is also a bit of what some might call a conspiracy theory that has surfaced. That is that some pollsters are showing Republicans as winning in a deliberate attempt to shape "the election was stolen" narrative. After all, if a liberal Democrat performs better than that anticipated by such polls, that lends some credence to the charge that maybe the election was not on the up and up. Now, that is not an argument for which I have seen any convincing evidence. At least not so far. Still, it may be something to keep in mind as the events of the coming days unfold.

All of this is by way of explanation that I really and truly do not have a high confidence in any predictions about election results. Even somebody who does get close to the right result may just be lucky in the way a lottery winner is lucky. They could very well have chosen the "right numbers" just by luck.

Mind you, I am not trying to be critical of people who do want to make predictions. It is part of the fun of it all, and part of the game of following politics (if "game" is an appropriate word). This is just by way of explanation that there may be some real surprises coming out of this election, both good and bad. So, even if polls show that a candidate you like is trailing by a small margin, you can take some heart in the expression that "it ain't over until it's over."

[Xyls]

So while I think the Democrats will win the Senate races in Pennsylvania and Georgia it is looking like they may actually lose an unexpected seat in New Hampshire which may cost them the Senate. This is due to incompetence and laziness of their senator there. It is possible Biden could be impeached by the Republicans.

To be honest. Biden getting impeached might be the best thing for the Democrats heading into 2024 as they could start over with a blank slate for president as it is pretty clear if they run Biden again they will very likely lose.

[weatheriscool]

Washoe was still able to count ~3000 mail-in ballots in last nights update, so looks like Clark just didn't feel like doing an update.

Dems won the mail vote last night by around 300, so their lead in total Washoe early vote grows to about ~1,300.

D - 50,689
R - 49,391
O - 29,724

[weatheriscool]

Of the 37 states that remain, raw turnout is almost identical overall to 2018:

2018 T-2 EV: 36,349,634
2022 T-2 EV: 36,248,421
2022, % of 2018 - 99.72%

[weatheriscool]

OR update.

Dem- 430,234 (41.3%)
Rep- 344,035 (33.1%)
Other- 266,377 (25.6%)
Total- 1,040,646

https://sos.oregon.gov/elections/Docume ... eturns.pdf

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

^^^A part of that democracy dying is the willingness of voters to be so heavily influenced by campaign advertising. Independent research combined with consultation of sources one trusts could do a lot to counteract heavy spending. In theory, massively outspent candidates can still win provided some minimal level of resources on their side of the ledger. Of course, in actual fact that is only rarely the case.

Another part of democracy dying may be the victory of officials that oversee the election process who will only accept and certify future election results in which their side wins.

What I came here to post is a site for tracking election results in real time. There are probably many such sites available, but since I am a heavy watcher of MSNBC, I chose their site:

https://www.msnbc.com/midterm-elections-2022

[caltrek]

Here is another aspect of “democracy dying.”

'You Will All Be Executed': Arizona Poll Workers Endure Right-Wing Midterm Threats
by Kenny Stancil
November 7, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Election workers in a hotly contested Arizona county have endured more than 100 violent threats and intimidating messages leading up to Tuesday's crucial midterms, most of them based on thoroughly disproven lies about Democratic voter fraud that former President Donald Trump and his allies have repeated ad nauseam for the past two years.

"The harassment in Maricopa County included menacing emails and social media posts, threats to circulate personal information online, and photographing employees arriving at work," Reuters reported Sunday, citing nearly 1,600 pages of documents it obtained through a public records request.

The election office for the Phoenix-area county logged "at least 140 threats and other hostile communications" between July 11 and August 22, the news outlet noted.

"You will all be executed," reads one. "Wire around their limbs and tied & dragged by a car," says another.

As Reuters reported: "The documents reveal the consequences of election conspiracy theories as voters nominated candidates in August to compete in the midterms. Many of the threats in Maricopa County, which helped propel President Joe Biden to victory over Trump in 2020, cited debunked claims around fake ballots, rigged voting machines, and corrupt election officials."

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... m-threats

[caltrek]

Big Oil Spent $13 Million to Boost Republicans in These 3 Toss-Up Senate Races
by Jake Johnson
November , 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) As voters across the United States headed to the polls Tuesday, a Greenpeace analysis found that the powerful oil and gas industry has spent nearly $13 million—averaging roughly $4.3 million per race—to boost Republicans vying for Senate seats in Pennsylvania, Georgia, and Nevada, key battleground states that could tip the balance of power in Congress.

According to Greenpeace's breakdown of campaign finance data, Big Oil has donated more than $5.4 million to party committees and super PACs backing Dr. Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, $5.3 million to bolster Herschel Walker in Georgia, and $2 million to support Adam Laxalt in Nevada, each of whom has signaled they would oppose climate action if elected. During his tenure as Nevada's attorney general, Laxalt—who has ties to the Koch network—worked with other GOP officials to shield ExxonMobil from a fraud investigation.

"Oil and gas executives and other powerful corporate interests want to keep us home by spreading misinformation and contributing to politicians supporting voter suppression efforts," said Ebony Twilley Martin, co-executive director of Greenpeace USA. "We must stay the course against unprecedented millionaire money funding extremist candidates, election overthrowers, and rampant disinformation."

Total campaign spending on state and federal elections this cycle is projected to reach and surpass $16.7 billion, according to OpenSecrets—the most money ever spent on midterm contests in U.S. history. The record spending has been fueled by huge billionaire donations and the continued dominance of super PACs, which can raise and spend unlimited sums on elections.

The oil and gas industry, which has seen its profits explode over the past year, is one of many corporate interests investing heavily in the 2022 races, which have massive implications for democracy and the planet. In addition to threatening cuts to Social Security and Medicare, Republicans have suggested they will attempt to slash key climate investments if they retake control of Congress.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... ate-races

caltrek’s comment: Please, please, please, don’t tell me that Fetterman is as bad as Oz.

[caltrek]

Inflated Rhetoric: The GOP Doesn't Care About Inflation or Working People
by Tim Koechlen
November 8, 2022

Extract::

(Common Dreams) (T)here is something like a consensus that inflation—and the pain it's inflicting on "regular Americans"—is likely to cost the Democrats their majorities in the House and the Senate. Republicans—with lots of help from their mendacious media allies (and, also, lots of help from mainstream outlets that should know better) - have been focusing relentlessly on inflation and (by inappropriate conflation) on the "bad economy."
…
Polls suggest that the GOP has identified (or, perhaps, created) a hotspot. Polls show that "the economy" and "inflation" are among swing voters' main concerns. In a recent CNN poll, "71% of Republican likely voters called the economy and inflation their top issue, while 53% of independents and 27% of Democrats said the same." Not climate change. Not the shameless, violent, racist, GOP-facilitated attack on our democracy. Not the reactionary Supreme Court. Not the attack on women's right to control their bodies and their lives. Not racism or Islamophobia or transphobia or antisemitism. Not book banning and Republican efforts to make the study of our racist history illegal. Not the prospect of House and Senate committees chaired by Christian Nationalists. And not the prospect of the House and Senate being run by a party that has - relentlessly, and reliably for decades—done everything they can to enhance the well-being of their rich patrons, relentlessly and reliably at the expense of the overwhelming majority of US residents.

…In fact, the GOP has no idea about how to reduce inflation. But, this said, we know precisely what the Republicans will do…They'll attack Social Security, Medicare and Medicaid. They'll allow the purchasing power of the minimum wage (which has lost a third of its value since 2010) to erode further. They'll work to make the appalling Trump tax cuts for corporations and the rich permanent. And they'll work to further liberate corporations to mistreat their workers, gauge their customers and pollute, and they'll block any and all efforts to save the planet from a climate disaster.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/202 ... ng-people

caltrek's comment: I know that at this point I am becoming redundant and repeating past statements. Still, it sometimes seems that no matter how clear I think I have been, there is always somebody who has yet to get the message.

[caltrek]

If Democrats Prevail During the Midterms, TV Advertising Might Have Something to do With It
by John M. Sides
November 7, 2022

Extract:

(The Conversation) In Senate races, the effect of advertising on election outcomes is twice as large as in presidential races. Ads hold even more sway in U.S. House, gubernatorial and other statewide races.

The key reason is that advertising appears to provide more information for voters in those other races, in which the candidates are often unfamiliar. We found that the more U.S. Senate and House candidates advertise, the more people are able to identify them as liberal or conservative and to express an opinion about them, favorable or unfavorable. By contrast, presidential advertising has a smaller effect on what voters know and feel about the candidates.
…
The more U.S. House or Senate candidates lead in television advertising, the more voters view them favorably relative to their opponent. The incentive, then, is for candidates to raise the substantial sums of money needed for a robust presence on the airwaves. The cost of a TV spot depends on a lot of factors and varies significantly across media markets. So the amount that candidates need depends as well.

Raising money is precisely what some Republican candidates have struggled to do in 2022. In particular, the Senate candidates most closely associated with Trump – like Blake Masters in Arizona, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania, J.D. Vance in Ohio and Herschel Walker in Georgia – have raised less money than their Democratic opponents. In this sense, they were no different from Trump, who was outspent in both 2016 and 2020.

This has given Democratic Senate candidates an advantage in advertising. According to Wesleyan Advertising Project data there were 2,678 more ads favoring Georgia Sen. Raphael Warnock than ads favoring Walker from Oct. 3-16, 2022.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/if-democra ... it-193587

caltrek’s comment: Before you end up with some sort of conclusion about how big corporations dominate this process, I remember reading somewhere that Democrats are outperforming Republicans in fundraising in the form of smaller donations. Such donations come from middle class or even, bless their hearts, lower income individuals who somehow manage to part with a small amount of money on behalf of their favorite party. So don’t come to an oversimplified conclusion.

Yes, obviously big corporate donor types are overrepresented in the money in politics process. That is a different statement than saying that they have a monopoly on that process.

[caltrek]

Still plowing through this thread?

Good for you. Here is another article about campaign giving. Key thing to remember is that contribution levels may very well fluctuate from industry to industry and region to region. A post-election article comparing all that for 2022 would be very interesting to read, at least IMHO.

Data Showa that in state-level Midterms in Midwest, Big Ag favors Republicans, Incumbents and Governors
by Mónica Cordero,
November 3, 2022

Introduction:

(Investigate Midwest) Iowa is one of the most productive agricultural states in the country. It makes sense then that Gov. Kim Reynolds would be a major recipient of industry campaign cash.

But political donations to Reynolds’ campaign in this year’s midterms also highlight a trend: Leading agricultural corporations and the industry in general tend to throw their support behind Republicans, incumbents and those in higher state offices in the Midwest, according to an Investigate Midwest analysis of OpenSecrets data.

While candidates dismissed concerns about the donations’ potential for influence, experts and advocates said political giving can help make friends in high places.

Investigate Midwest analyzed the midterm cycle’s campaign donations at the state level from eight Big Ag companies and nine state farm bureaus across the Midwest. The data begins on Jan. 1, 2021, and is through Oct. 31, 2022.

Of the more than a combined million dollars donated, the vast majority of giving by these companies and farm bureaus — more than 80% — went to Republican candidates.

Read more here: https://investigatemidwest.org/2022/11 ... ta-shows/

[caltrek]

I should have posted this in October when it first appeared. Oh well, better late than never.

GOP Ads Cry “Crime” but Homicides are Actually Falling
by Mitchell Zimmerman
October 26, 2022

Introduction:

(Other Words) If you’re trying to process all those political ads you’re seeing about crime, you’d better look at the facts.

Crime rates in America have dropped dramatically since the 1990s, falling from a peak of 750 violent crimes for every 100,000 people under George H. W. Bush to a low of 360 under Barack Obama.

Violent crime has slightly risen more recently, increasing 5 percent during the last year of Donald Trump’s presidency. Those rates continued rising during President Biden’s first year in office. Robberies have increased somewhat this year, but so far violent crimes like homicides and rapes are down in most major cities.

Should we blame Donald Trump for the increase in murders during his final year as president? Or for the fact that overall crime rates went up 30 percent during his last two years?

What about the fact that states that voted for Trump in 2020 had murder rates 40 percent higher than those won by Joe Biden?

Read more here: https://otherwords.org/gop-ads-cry-cri ... -falling/

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Maricopa EV

Kelly 59
Masters 39

Hobbs 58
lake 42

Fontes 61
Finchem 39

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

CNN calls VA-02 as a flip, VA-07 as a hold.