2022 midterm election thread

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Latest from Clark is Dems are now up 9,1k after new batch of mail and latest in-person for yesterday. In terms of percentages it's around 9%.

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FLORIDA
Combined VBM + Early In Person through Tues Oct. 25

DEMOCRATS 683,947

REPUBLICANS 664,055

INDEPENDENTS 318,974

Democrats lead by 19,892

Democrats were aided by a huge VBM Day (147K) and added 15K

Republicans were helped by a 117K In-Person Day were they netted 25K

Tomorrow Hernando, Volusia, Pasco, St. Johns, Nassau and Martin kick off Early In-Person Vote.

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PA is definitely a bright spot so far, Dems have banked 500K votes there, and their return rate (54%) continues to grow past the GOPs (49%) on mail ballots.

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Thank you for doing this.

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Five Candidates Who Could Help Trump Steal the Presidency

by Jeremy Schulman

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) National elections in the United States are administered by local and state officials. Here are a few candidates sympathetic to Trump’s election fraud claims, who, if they win in November, could help him or another Republican steal the 2024 race.

Jeanne Herman, commissioner, Washoe County, Nevada

In Nevada, county commissioners approve election results, and Herman voted against certifying the 2020 outcome in the state’s second-largest county. She has pushed to curtail the use of voting machines and wanted National Guard troops posted at election facilities. If she wins reelection this year, she might have company on the commission. Mike Clark—a Republican who won’t say whether he thinks Joe Biden was “duly elected”—knocked off another incumbent in the primary.

Brian Zahra, Supreme Court justice, Michigan

Federal judges smacked down Trump’s efforts to overturn the election, but some state-level jurists proved more pliable. Michigan’s high court narrowly voted to throw out a lawsuit seeking to undo Biden’s victory. Zahra—one of three dissenting Republicans—didn’t say how he might have ruled. But in a related matter, he declared that Trump supporters had made “troubling and serious allegations of fraud and irregularities.” Zahra is up for reelection, as is one of the Democratic justices who ruled against Trump.

Matthew DePerno, Republican attorney general nominee, Michigan

DePerno helped turn a minor vote-counting error in rural Antrim County into a major piece of the conspiracy theories surrounding Dominion voting machines. If elected, he’s promised to “prosecute the people who corrupted the 2020 election”—including Michigan’s Democratic secretary of state.

Mark Finchem, Republican secretary of state nominee, Arizona

Finchem, a state representative, did everything he could to reverse Biden’s victory, including falsely telling the Department of Homeland Security that an Arizona House committee had uncovered evidence of voting machine “irregularities” and had “probable cause to believe that a crime has been committed.” He was scheduled to speak at Trump’s January 6 rally (though he didn’t enter the Capitol). If elected secretary of state, Finchem will oversee elections and certify the results.

Also discussed in the article is Pennsylvania gubernatorial candidate Doug Mastriano

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... astriano/

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GOP’s Liz Cheney endorsing Michigan Democrat Slotkin in a first
Melissa Nann Burke 1:20 p.p.m. ET Oct 27, 2022

Republican U.S. Rep. Liz Cheneyhas endorsed Democratic Rep. Elissa Slotkin and will campaign with her in Lansing next week as Slotkin faces a tough challenge from GOP state Sen. Tom Barrett in her bid for a third term.

It's the first time that Cheney, a prominent critic of former President Donald Trump,has formally endorsed a Democrat for office, according to Slotkin's campaign.

Cheney, who lost her GOP primary in Wyoming over the summer, serves on the House Armed Services Committee with Slotkin and both previously worked for the U.S. Department of State before going into politics. Slotkin also is a former CIA analyst and a top Pentagon official in the administration of President Barack Obama.
Rep. Liz Cheney, R-Wyo., left, and Rep. Elissa Slotkin, D-Mich.

"I have come to know Elissa as a good and honorable public servant who works hard for the people she represents, wants what's best for the country, and is in this for the right reasons," Cheney said in a statement.

“While Elissa and I have our policy disagreements, at a time when our nation is facing threats at home and abroad, we need serious, responsible, substantive members like Elissa in Congress. I encourage all voters in the 7th district — Republicans, Democrats, and Independents — to support her in this election.”...............................

Read more: https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/ ... chromepush

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California update - 2.12M votes counted
Democrats: 1.06M (50%)
Republicans: 596K (28%)
Ind/Other: 469K (22%)

https://politicaldata.com/2022-general- ... d-tracker/

Tracking almost exactly with party reg (D+23)

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https://www.dispatch.com/story/news/pol ... 589425007/

Here are the Early voting statistics in.OH 400K more votes than last time good news for Ryan

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Illinois Ballot Measure Could Result in It Becoming the First State to Make “Right-to-Work” Illegal
by Peter Lucas
October 25, 2022

Introduction:

(More Perfect Union) On November 8th, voters will have the chance to enshrine protections against “right-to-work” laws in Illinois via constitutional amendment. Although Illinois has long been a blue state, the Workers’ Rights Amendment (WRA) would be a strong defense against anti-union laws.

Right-to-work, ushered in with the passage of the Taft-Hartley Act in 1947, allows employees to opt-out of paying union dues, while still enjoying the same union benefits as their dues-paying coworkers. While employers claim it’s about the “right to choose” and employee freedom, in practice it undermines union strength by imposing restraints on new organizing and collective bargaining.

The amendment would curtail efforts to impose right-to-work in the state, as former Illinois governor Bruce Rauner tried to do. Rauner unsuccessfully attempted to establish “right-to-work zones” in the state, entrusting local governments to litigate their own labor law. Not long after, his successor and current Illinois governor J.B. Pritzker signed the “Collective Bargaining Freedom Act,” banning local governments from adopting right-to-work laws.

“This is a time when we can and will take bipartisan action to lift up working families,” Pritzker told constituents at the bill signing. “The Collective Bargaining Freedom Act ensures that Illinois and all of its communities will never be a Right to Work state.”

Read more here: https://perfectunion.us/illinois-could ... -illegal/

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A few pages back (page 33 to be precise) I discussed factors that affected the Latino vote and why they are not a slam dunk for the Democrats. here is another article of an anecdotal nature that addresses that same theme:

Why Viejitos (Elderly Latinos) Vote Republican
by Hector Luis Alamo
October 25, 2022

Conclusion:

(Latino Rebels) She (Hector’s grandmother) also thinks the Democrats are the party of lawlessness, of letting people slide, of soft punishments for hardened criminals, of free money for lazy people, of letting homeless people live and shit wherever they want, of letting kids talk back to their parents, of treating pets like people, of government benefits for immigrants who snuck inside the country.

My grandma’s one of those immigrants who proudly and constantly claims to have done things the right way, and she blames the Democrats for letting everybody cheat and cut corners.

If my grandma is anything, she’s proud, hardworking, self-made, fiercely independent, religious, and hates to see people abusing the system, so she isn’t eager to give her hard-earned and hard-saved money to a government she thinks is going to give it away to cheaters and slackers.

I know there’s a lot of cheaters and slackers on Wall Street, in the One Percent, and in the Republican Party. I also know there are more white people sucking on the government’s titty than anyone else. But my grandma doesn’t know any of that, and if I told her, she probably wouldn’t believe me.
That’s why she votes Republican.

Read more here: https://www.latinorebels.com/2022/10/2 ... publican/

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Ohio Senator by Cygnal on 2022-10-28

Summary: D: 43%, R: 48%, U: 9%

Poll Source URL: Full Poll Details