Here’s How the Election Deniers Are Performing in the Polls—and Why
by Will Saletan
October 21, 2022
Introduction:
(The Bulwark) In several crucial states, candidates who have claimed or suggested that the 2020 election was stolen are close to becoming governors. In Arizona, Republican Kari Lake is narrowly leading Democrat Katie Hobbs. In Wisconsin, Republican Tim Michels is within half a percentage point of Gov. Tony Evers. And in Michigan, the last four polls put challenger Tudor Dixon within six points of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer.
If these candidates were to win on Nov. 8, they’d control the certification of 36 pivotal Electoral College votes in 2024. If they were to be joined by Doug Mastriano, who trails in Pennsylvania but is polling above 40 percent, they’d control 55 electoral votes. Together, they could deliver the 2024 presidential election to Donald Trump, who is polling neck and neck in a hypothetical rematch with Joe Biden.
How is this happening? What the hell is going on?
Here’s what we can glean from recent polls. Let’s start with the good news: Most voters in these states don’t think the 2020 election was stolen. Two months ago in Pennsylvania, 49 percent of registered voters said “election officials in Pennsylvania correctly counted the state’s vote in the 2020 Presidential election”; 41 percent said they didn’t. In Arizona, 53 percent of voters said they were extremely or very confident that “the votes in Arizona were cast legitimately and counted accurately”; only 28 percent said they weren’t confident at all. Last month in Michigan, 54 percent of likely voters said “Joe Biden won the election fair and square”; only 35 percent chose the alternative answer, “Joe Biden and Democrats stole the election from Donald Trump.” And in Wisconsin, 61 percent of voters said Biden was “the legitimate winner”; only 26 percent said Trump was the legitimate winner.
The bad news is that candidates who peddle the stolen-election myth are polling well above those numbers. In the Arizona survey, taken for Fox News, Lake drew 44 percent of the vote. In the Wisconsin poll, taken for Spectrum News, Michels also drew 44 percent. In the Michigan poll, taken for the Detroit Free Press, Dixon got 40 percent.
Pay Attention to These Insanely Important District Attorney Races by Samantha Michaels
October 21, 2022
Introduction:
(Mother Jones) If you care about police accountability, abortion rights, or racial justice, you should be paying attention to district attorney races this election season.
As chief prosecutors in their counties, DAs hold a lot of power to choose who gets charged with a crime and who doesn’t: They can flat-out decide to never prosecute a specific offense, whether it’s terminating a pregnancy or possessing some weed—especially if there are other types of violations they want to take more seriously, like police brutality or corporate malfeasance.
But reformist candidates hoping to curb mass incarceration or keep cops in line will face a big challenge at the polls this year. Widespread concerns about violent crime could give their more moderate or conservative opponents a boost, all at a time when it’s unusually difficult to know whether the nation’s lawlessness is actually rising or falling.
Here are four DA races that we at Mother Jones are watching:
The article goes on to discuss races in Minneapolis, San Francisco, Alameda County (which includes Berkley and Oakland), and Maricopa County (which includes Phoenix).
Here is what I believe for the 2022 election at this moment based on the data.
The senate will be 51-49 republican.....
The house will be 225 republican....
The numbers are clear that the republicans have the advantage. Not a 2010 or 2014 one but one none the less.
Cook Political Report Moves Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney to "Tossup" by Josh Kraushaar
October 24, 2022
Introduction:
(Axios) This is a seismic shift in the midterm elections:
• Dave Wasserman, U.S. House editor of The Cook Political Report with Amy Walter, this morning moved the reelection race of House Democrats' campaign kingmaker — DCCC Chair Sean Patrick Maloney of New York — to a tossup.
Why it matters: It’s a sign of how big the GOP wave is looking — and how potent the issue of crime is in New York — that Republicans have a shot at unseating the powerful lawmaker in a double-digit Biden district.
The district — NY-17 — had been rated "lean Democrat" by Cook.
• Maloney's opponent in the newly redrawn district is first-term state Assemblyman Mike Lawler.
• The suburban New York City district backed Biden by 10 points.
There’s No One ‘Latino vote’ – Religion and Geography Add to Voters’ Diversity by Laura E. Alexander and Cristián Doña-Reveco
Introduction:
(The Conversation) Nearly 1 in 5 people in the United States today are Latino, and “the Latino vote” has attracted significant news coverage as their political voice grows stronger. Yet considering all 62 million Latinos as a group isn’t necessarily all that helpful in understanding attitudes or voting patterns, as some scholars and journalists have pointed out.
The U.S. Latino population is extremely diverse. As scholars who study immigration in the fields of sociology and religious ethics, we are especially interested in the growing religious diversity and often overlooked geographical diversity among Latino populations.
These aspects of Latino identity are just beginning to be recognized more clearly in media reports. Yet they are as informative as gender, race and other characteristics for understanding Latino voters – and will likely come into play when Americans go to the polls in November.
Religious diversity
Historically, Latinos in the U.S. have mostly been Catholic, but the numbers have recently changed. In 2020, the Public Religion Research Institute reported that 50% of Latinos say they are Catholic, 14% are evangelical Protestant, 10% non-evangelical Protestant and 19% religiously unaffiliated. Some researchers have estimated that by 2030, fully half of U.S. Latinos will identify as Protestant.
This diversity has implications for political ideology and affiliation. Latino Protestants, particularly evangelicals, are generally more likely to identify as politically conservative and to support Republican candidates than Latino Catholics are, according to the Public Religion Research Institute’s 2020 Census of American Religion. Religiously unaffiliated Latinos, on the other hand, are generally more likely to identify as politically liberal and to support Democratic candidates.
Carville: Republicans Are Proposing Social Security and Medicare Cuts, Democrats Need To Run On A "Gift" Like This by Ian Scwhartz
October 24, 2022
Introduction:
(Real Clear Politics) James Carville said the Democratic party should run on Republicans wanting to shut down the government in order to "throw people off Medicare and Social Security."
"Kevin McCarthy has told you what their plan is if they get power," Carville said. "He says this. They will shut the government down the force cuts to Social Security and Medicare. Well, let's talk about the economy. Let's talk about senior citizens who are dealing with inflation. Do you really want to shut the government down that would adversely affect the economy for everybody in the United States? And at this time do you really want cuts in Social Security and Medicare? I don't think you do."
"I will tell these Democratic campaigns this right to your face. When you get a gift like this, you take it and you bring this home and drive it. You drive it hard and you drive it exclusively. They have told us their plan. We now know what it is. They're in the open. Let's go get them," Carville said.
"If we're to salvage this election and do pretty good, it's going to take a lot of people fulfilling a lot of different roles and doing what they can do best," Carville told MSNBC host Ari Melber.
"In the spring of 2021 when I wrote a piece in The Wall Street Journal saying the Democrats need to own the crime issue or the crime issue will own you. Well, people said, well, you can't do that because there will be a big backlash. Well, okay, you didn't own it and guess what? It's a big problem for Democrats. I'm telling the same elite coastal people, forget everything. We are going to advertise and push the fact that they want to throw people off Medicare and Social Security, and they want to shut the government down to do it. And that's how you win."
More than 9.2 million pre-election ballots cast nationally as early and absentee voting continues
Source: CNN
More than 9.2 million pre-election ballots have been cast across 40 states, according to data from election officials, Edison Research and Catalist. Pre-election voting remains on pace with 2018, the highest midterm voter turnout in recent history, across the states where Catalist has data for both cycles.
However, it’s still too early to say if total voter turnout will exceed 2018, as voting habits may have significantly shifted in recent years.
Florida continues to have the largest number of pre-election ballots cast with nearly 1.4 million. More than 90% of those ballots were cast by mail. Some Florida counties begin early in-person voting this week, but all counties are required to start by Saturday.
California was the second state with more than one million ballots cast, and Georgia crossed that threshold by midday Tuesday, according to Gabriel Sterling in the Georgia Secretary of State’s Office.
