2023-2024 Presidential, senate, house, state and city election thread

[weatheriscool]

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[weatheriscool]

CBS/YouGov
48% approve (+3)
52% disapprove (-3)

Fox News
46% approve (+3)
53% disapprove (-3)

[caltrek]

United States Senate Candidate Joe O'Dea Reveals He Will “Actively Campaign Against” Former President Donald Trump if He Mounts a White House Bid in 2024.
by Brandon Gage
October 17, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) Colorado Republican United States Senate candidate Joe O'Dea revealed on Sunday's edition of CNN's State of the Union that he will “actively campaign against” former President Donald Trump if he mounts a White House bid in 2024.

“I don’t think Donald Trump should run again,” O’Dea said. “I’m going to actively campaign against Donald Trump and make sure that we’ve got four or five really great Republicans right now" who could defeat Trump in the GOP primary.

“They can run and serve for eight years,” O’Dea predicted of Florida Governor Ron DeSantis, ex-South Carolina governor and United Nations Ambassador Nikki Haley, and Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina. “I’m going to do my job as a U.S. senator to make sure that they have good campaigns in the primary here so we have a good selection of candidates for 2024.”

On Monday, Trump attacked O'Dea on his Twitter copycat app Truth Social as a Republican In Name Only and proclaimed that his Make America Great Again movement only elects the best and brightest people.

"There’s this RINO character in the Great State of Colorado, Joe O’Dea, that is running against the incumbent Democrat for the United States Senate, who is having a good old time saying that he wants to 'distance' himself from President Trump, and other slightly nasty things. He should look at the Economy, Inflation, Energy Independence, defeating ISIS, the Strongest EVER Border, Great Trade Deals, & much more, before he speaks. MAGA doesn’t Vote for stupid people with big mouths," Trump wrote. "Good luck Joe!"

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/10/maga- ... r-stupid/

[weatheriscool]

MI Emerson Tied

https://emersoncollegepolling.com/michi ... -abortion/

BIDEN 44
Trump 44
Someone else 9
Undecided 3%


This is interesting as this is one of the 3 states trump would need to win to be reelected.

[weatheriscool]

More Republicans trust DeSantis than Trump to chart path of GOP: poll
Source: The Hill

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (R) topped former President Trump in a new poll asking GOP voters who they trust to guide the party into the future.

The ABC News/Ipsos poll, published on Sunday, found that 72 percent of registered Republicans believe that DeSantis, a former U.S. congressman, should have a great or good deal of influence in the future direction of the GOP, while 64 percent of respondents said the same of Trump.

Sixty-three percent of registered Republicans believe that Sen. Ted Cruz (R-Texas), who ran for president in 2016, should have significant influence in the party’s direction, according to the poll.

Among Democrats who were asked the same question, 83 percent of those surveyed believe that former President Obama should have great influence over the party’s future, as 69 percent of respondents believe President Biden should call the shots over the direction of the party.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/state-watc ... -gop-poll/

[caltrek]

Here is an article about what appears to be a major candidate for the 2024 election.

Trump’s Worst Nightmare Is Here: Someone Will Sit and Watch Every One of His Business Moves
by Russ Choma
November 4, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) A New York judge on Thursday evening ordered that an independent financial monitor be appointed to keep tabs on Donald Trump’s business empire while state Attorney General Letitia James pursues her $250 million civil fraud lawsuit against the former president. The judge ordered the unusual move after James’ office argued that the Trumps couldn’t be trusted not to hide assets or shift them outside of the court’s jurisdiction while the legal battle plays out. Following a hearing Thursday morning, New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron agreed with James and ruled that until further notice, Trump must give him two weeks’ notice and obtain the court’s approval before moving any significant assets. Engoron ordered the monitor be appointed in order to ensure Trump complies with those restrictions.

And, Engoron added, Trump will have to pay for the monitor himself. The judge said the monitor would be appointed by the third week of November and ordered both sides to offer suggestions for who should serve in this role.

James’ lawsuit accuses Trump, three of his adult children, and a slew of his companies of committing fraud by falsely inflating the valuations of various assets they own in an effort to get better deals from banks and insurance companies—and then playing games to lower those same valuations when it came time to assess them for tax purposes. James asked for the financial monitor last month, telling Engoron that it was not clear that the Trumps had actually stopped engaging in the allegedly fraudulent behavior at the heart of the lawsuit. On the eve of James’ lawsuit, the Trumps had even created a new entity called Trump Organization II LLC, which James said could be part of a scheme to shift assets out of the court’s reach.

Trump’s attorneys told Engoron they were happy to sign stipulations about not hiding assets, but they insisted that a financial babysitter wasn’t necessary because, contrary to what James was arguing, there wasn’t serious evidence that fraud ever had occurred, much less that any fraud was ongoing. In his ruling Thursday, Engoron was fairly scathing in his response, saying the monitor was a reasonable idea “given defendant’s demonstrated propensity to engage in persistent fraud.”

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... ss-moves/

caltrek’s comment: What a disconnect between judges who know that Trump cannot be trusted to make fundamental business decisions without strict oversight, and an electorate composed of large numbers of voters who think he should be entrusted with the most powerful political office of the planet.

[weatheriscool]

Talk of early Trump 2024 announcement heats up with Monday bid a possibility
Source: The Hill

Former President Trump has been in discussions with some aides about potentially announcing a 2024 presidential bid as early as Monday night, according to two sources familiar with the talks.

The sources, who requested anonymity to discuss the conversations, said Trump has been mulling an announcement during a Monday night rally in Ohio, which is ostensibly intended to boost support for GOP Senate candidate JD Vance ahead of Tuesday’s midterm elections.

“I ran twice, I won twice and I did much better the second time than the first,” Trump said Sunday at a rally in Miami. “In order to make our country successful, safe and glorious, I probably have to do it again. Stay tuned tomorrow night in the great state of Ohio. Stay tuned.”

“To all the press texting & calling me: Trump should announce tonight,” Rep. Matt Gaetz (R-Fla.), one of Trump’s most ardent congressional allies, tweeted Monday. “His candidates won the primaries. Biden’s central message was the ‘ULTRA MAGA’ scare. And we are going to win BIGLY! Trump deserves all the credit for this wave election & announcing tonight he will seize it.”

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3 ... ssibility/

[eacao]

Talk of early Trump 2024 announcement heats up with Monday bid a possibility

Trump has all-but-confirmed that he's running in 2024.

From memory--so won't be verbatim--he said in a rally recently,
"I can't announce it yet because of campaign laws, but it's very, very, very probably. Going to make a lot of people very happy".

Something to that effect, anyway. He'll run and when he does, I am going to be paying keen attention to how he handles DeSantis in the Primaries.

Iirc, DeSantis heads out Trump within the GOP.

[wjfox]

[caltrek]

A media pundit has opined that a crowded Republican primary field will actually help Donald Trump. As they smell blood in the water, more candidates may come forward as opposed to uniting behind a single opponent to Trump. Of course, this will have the advantage of battle testing such candidates if the choice narrows down to Trump versus the leading opponent.

One probable candidate we haven't talked about much: Mike Pence.

Trump Warned Pence Not to ‘Wimp Out’ Before January 6, Pence Writes
by Olivia Olander
November 9, 2022

Introduction:

(Politico) “If it gives you the power, why would you oppose it?” Trump reportedly asked Pence, about a lawsuit from House Republicans that would have allowed Pence to have exclusive authority over the election results.

In the excerpt, published in The Wall Street Journal, the former vice president recounts being admonished by Trump for his refusal to sway the results of the election in their administration’s favor.

Pence’s book, titled “So Help Me God,” is scheduled to be released next Tuesday — the same day that Trump, widely expected to launch another presidential run, has said he’ll make a “very big announcement.”

“‘You can be a historic figure, but if you wimp out, you’re just another somebody,’” Pence said Trump told him after the 2020 election. Pence also wrote that Trump warned him — on Jan. 6, 2021 — he would “go down as a wimp” if he certified the election results.

Pence, in his commentary, reaffirmed that he welcomed debate and challenges to the 2020 presidential results, but did not believe he should reject electors unilaterally.

Read more here: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politic ... -AA13VXLX

[caltrek]

There is a saying that in making military preparation, generals often make the mistake of trying to fight the last war. That they are backward looking instead of properly looking at new technologies and circumstances.

It is looking increasingly likely that Governor Ron DeSantis will emerge as the front runner for the 2024 race. It is doubtful that he would be any kind of improvement over Trump. In fact, some argue that he is a smarter harder working version of Trump, and therefore even more dangerous. Clearly, a person who needs to be better understood it Democrats hope to fight off a Republican victory in 2024.

DeSantis’ Policies Are Terrible for Moms. He Convinced Them Otherwise
by Kierra Butler
November 10, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) On Election Day, the much-hyped red wave didn’t crest quite as high as some polls predicted it would, with Democrats scoring key victories in several states. Yet it was far from a total wash for Republicans—and in a few places, they made historic advances. In Florida, for instance, incumbent Governor (and likely presidential candidate) Ron DeSantis crushed Democratic opponent Charlie Crist, winning the Republican vote even in traditionally deep blue counties.

The forces behind DeSantis’ victory are many and complex. The fact that he was an incumbent naturally gave him an edge. In addition, he spent much of the last four years positioning himself as the more-MAGA-than-Trump candidate. He jeered at the Biden administration, railed against pandemic protections, and made an over-the-top and roundly criticized show of cracking down on migrants from the southern border (who were from Texas, not Florida). With these strategies, he has broadened his Republican base and made inroads into previously Democratic-leaning blocs, including Latin Americans and millennial and Gen-Z Floridians.

But another group of Florida voters he has strategically cultivated may have been especially significant. In the online Florida politics journal Sayfie Review, political analyst Susan McManus noted that in the last year, more than twice as many Florida women have switched parties from Democrat to Republican than the reverse—some 51,000 in the former category, compared to 20,000 in the latter. Florida’s First Lady Casey DeSantis boasted last week that 1.1 million women had signed on to her Mamas for DeSantis campaign group. “If that number’s correct,” says Aubrey Jewett, a professor of political science at the University of Central Florida, “that’s pretty impressive.” Especially considering the fact that by many measures—maternal and child health, family leave, and pay equity, to name but a few—life for women and children in Florida is not going particularly well. Ron DeSantis has managed to convince women that his brand of family values is good for them—despite abundant evidence to the contrary.

A central—if not the central—part of DeSantis’ approach has been to cater to the growing number of women who have demonstrated their support for what they call parents’ rights.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... therwise/

caltrek's comment: I know it can be exhausting and frustrating to be thinking of 2024 when we still haven't even wrapped up the 2022 elections. The truism comes to mind that the price of freedom is eternal vigilance.

[caltrek]

Donald Trump Declares War on Ron DeSantis as Fox News Crowns Him King of the Republican Party
by David Badash
November 11, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) Donald Trump, the de facto head of the Republican Party, just essentially declared war on Florida Republican Governor Ron DeSantis.

DeSantis, who won re-election Tuesday in a strong showing, is presumed to be a potential 2024 presidential candidate. He would be battling Trump, whose top advisors say will announce his third run for the White House next week.

But all three Murdoch-owned outlets in the U.S. – Fox News, The Wall Street Journal, and the New York Post – have attacked Trump this week, blaming him directly for Republicans’ historically poor performance in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

(See article linked below for Twitter feeds)

Fox News is embracing DeSantis.

On his Truth Social platform, Trump Thursday evening unleashed a series of rants attacking “Governor Ron DeSanctimonious,” ironically just hours after his former press secretary, Kayleigh McEnany, specifically urged the two men to get along. “We’re all on the same team” she said on Fox News.

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/11/donal ... desantis/

[weatheriscool]

YouGov/Yahoo national: DeSantis +7 over Trump

https://today.yougov.com/topics/politic ... d-congress

1500 adults, conducted November 9-11.

[caltrek]

Under normal politics, one expects something resembling a demolition derby early in the election cycle. Once a nominee is selected, candidates close ranks.

Trump has at least one additional card to play, and he seems willing to play it: Make me the nominee or I will burn the (Republican party) house down by launching my own third-party attempt in the general election. This would likely draw more votes away from the Republicans in the general election. Winning the nomination would thus become a pyrrhic victory (although it would serve to finally distance Trump from the GOP).

[caltrek]

Trump Corp. ‘Hostile Witness’ Walks Back Tax Fraud Testimony in Criminal Trial
by Nina Pullano
November 14, 2022

Introduction:

MANHATTAN (Courthouse News) — Jeff McConney is a government witness in the New York tax fraud case against the Trump Corporation. He’s also a senior vice president at the company, which is paying for his attorney in Trump business investigations, and has met with the business’s own lawyers multiple times since his testimony began. And now, he’s a hostile witness in the ongoing criminal trial.

Judge Juan Manuel Merchan had twice denied prosecutors’ request to consider McConney adverse and to ask him leading questions. He changed course Monday during redirect examination after the government argued McConney’s evasive answers, demeanor and feigned inability to understand questions proved he was playing hard for the Trump team.

“He has a hard time, frankly, giving very credible answers,” Merchan said.

Defense attorney Susan Necheles argued that McConney wasn’t trying to get out of answering questions, and was in fact admitting to tax fraud he’d committed while working for the Trump Corporation. Those include lowering salaries to allow executives to fund their personal lives pre-tax, and filing tax forms that failed to declare certain employees lived in New York City so they could get out of a city tax.
McConney, who testified in front of a grand jury at least twice in this matter, as well as for other unspecified investigations, has immunity for those crimes.

“I think it’s pretty clear to the average observer that he is very helpful to you,” Merchan told Necheles. “When he doesn’t understand the question, he tries to understand the question.”

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/trump-c ... al-trial/

caltrek’s comment: If you go on to read the rest of the article a curious defense arises. Trump was innocent because he was too incompetent to understand the implications of what he was signing. Implied in that is a poor judgement in hiring. So, Trump supporters seem to feel he should be allowed the incompetence defense so that he can go on to be elected president.

Right.

[weatheriscool]

Trump to announce he will run for president in 2024

Donald Trump, the only president impeached twice, plans to seek a return to the Oval Office in 2024, he will say Tuesday, two years after voters ousted him and a week after they rejected his hand-picked candidates in several pivotal Senate races.

His plan was confirmed by a longtime adviser, just hours before he was due to begin speaking from his Mar-a-Lago resort.

Trump is at once the immediate front-runner for the Republican nomination and a diminished force within his party. As results rolled in from last week's midterm election — with Democrats maintaining control of the Senate and Republicans winning a much smaller-than-expected majority in the House — some Republican elites began publicly clamoring for Trump to step aside for the good of the party.

https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/donald ... -rcna36987

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[wjfox]