Ukraine War Watch Thread

[ibm9000]

Accusing others of hypocrisy...

Yes, you are right, but I couldn't help but notice that you seem quite happy with the accusations of whataboutism.

[raklian]

Accusing others of hypocrisy...

Yes, you are right, but I couldn't help but notice that you seem quite happy with the accusations of whataboutism.

Do not take this further than you need to. You already made your displeasure clear in the first time around. You're straying from the topic of this thread. You have been warned.

[wjfox]

[wjfox]

Nuclear weapons convoy sparks fears Putin could be preparing test to send ‘signal to the West’

3 October 2022 • 8:50pm

A Russian convoy transporting equipment for Russia's nuclear weapons programme has sparked fears that Vladimir Putin could be preparing a test to send a “signal to the West”.

A train operated by the secretive nuclear division and linked to the 12th main directorate of the Russian ministry of defence was spotted in central Russia over the weekend heading towards the front line in Ukraine.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/10/03/nuclear-weapons-convoy-sparks-fears-putin-could-preparing-test/

[andmar74]

Wow the Russian army might collapse faster than few thought possible.

[wjfox]

Posted by a user on the SkyscraperCity forum:

If I remember rightly, the black sea holds a huge amount of trapped hydrogen sulphide below 200m, it has been hypothesised that a large disturbance in the water would cause a mass evacuation of the gas and kill many along the coastline, similar to the lake Nyos disaster which killed 1750 people in 1986 - although that was CO2. A bomb test could be enough to create an even bigger disaster

[ibm9000]

I have been "warned", should I expect a nuclear attack?


Ukraine keeps advancing...
https://www.dropbox.com/s/txuy4j6uacd3gdp/02.jpg?dl=0

10km south one month after Visokopillia
https://www.dropbox.com/s/6iv4i6gze2ws2os/03.jpeg?dl=0
(not the best map)

but maybe i's a bit too soon to announce the collapse of the Red Army.
https://www.dropbox.com/s/1qb7w7ov8z34c3t/01.jpg?dl=0

[funkervogt]

Ukraine’s victory in Lyman undermines Putin’s foothold in the eastern Donetsk region and “could turn into a cascading series of defeats for the Russians,” retired Army Lt. Gen. H.R. McMaster, former national security adviser, said Sunday on CBS’s “Face the Nation.”

“What we might be here is really at the precipice of really the collapse of the Russian army in Ukraine,” McMaster said. “They must really be at a breaking point.”

But current officials cautioned that Kyiv’s most recent gains should not be overstated, and that Russian forces are holding steady in other areas such as nearby Bakhmut, in the Donetsk. In the north, Russian forces are shelling the town of Kupiansk, which Ukraine continues to defend, the senior military official said.

The fight in the Donbas will be particularly grueling, as Russian forces are fighting from existing trenches and shelters they’ve held for years.

“There’s lots of heavy fighting ahead,” said a Defense Department official, who like others quoted in this story asked for anonymity to discuss internal assessments. Another U.S. official added: “It’s important strategically, but they still have a long way to go.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2022/10/0 ... s-00060064

[funkervogt]

Recent movements of Russia's "nuclear train" could merely be part of an annual training exercise, or could indicate that the country is sending troops that are normally assigned to guard the country's ICBMs to fight in Ukraine due to manpower shortages.
https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/r ... g-it-to-be

[caltrek]

I have been "warned", should I expect a nuclear attack?
...

I think Rakilian may be referring to your posting privileges on this forum.

In addition to the obvious insult of "implying" that you think somebody is a hypocrite, what-about-ism is also a deep insult to progressive and peace minded activists within countries such as Great Britain and the United States. It is a kind of bigotry to "imply" (intentionally or on purpose) that someone should share the guilt of what sins their government, in the past, may have committed. Especially so for historical events that may have occurred even before they were born or prior to assuming the full mantle of citizenship in their own country. It is a slap in the face to those who have made progress in bringing about more reasonable policies. A bit like condemning a Jewish person because "the Jews killed Christ" while of course ignoring the tremendous contribution made by Jews to Christian and moral thought.

Put another way, what-about-ism can be irrelevant. It is like this hypothetical. A man robs a bank and is caught and arrested in the act. His defense?
Well, another bank robber robbed another bank at different time and got away with it. Therefore, he should be allowed to get away with his crime.
Most judges in most circumstances would rightfully laugh that line of argument right out of court.

@Joe,

How is that for an effective rebuttal?

[caltrek]

The Legal Ramifications Of Political Rhetoric: Genocide In Russia’s Invasion Of Ukraine
by Shivangi Seth
October 4, 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) Few words in the realm of international politics are more loaded than ‘genocide’. Six months into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, evidence of mass killings, executions, and rape have poured out of the country. These have sparked allegations of genocide committed by Russian forces.

This article examines the international legal ramifications of such rhetoric. It makes three arguments. One, that there is limited political will among states to formally recognise genocide. Two, international judicial bodies suffer from institutional limitations that encumber the possibility of a timely genocide trial and verdict enforcement. Three, meeting the high legal threshold to establish genocide is extremely difficult. While effective as a rhetorical tool to further Russia’s political isolation, these genocide allegations have limited international legal and punitive aims.

Limited Political Will to Recognise Genocide

While several heads-of-state have accused Russian troops of committing genocide in Ukraine, there is sparse political will to formally label it as such.

The strongest voices have emerged from Europe. Multiple state Parliaments and the European Parliament have passed resolutions and statements characterising Russian actions in Ukraine as genocide. Outside Europe, only Canada’s House of Commons adopted a non-binding motion calling Russia’s crimes “acts of genocide.”

Leaders of several other countries, including US President Joe Biden, have called Russian crimes in Ukraine “genocide.” These political statements however don’t amount to official government recognition of genocide. Biden, for instance, specifically clarified that his statement was made in a personal capacity, deferring legal determination to international legal experts.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/04102022 ... analysis/

caltrek’s comment: While I don’t necessarily agree with every single point made by Mr. Seth, on the whole I find it to be an interesting and thought-provoking analysis.

[wjfox]

[ibm9000]

In addition to the obvious insult of "implying" that you think somebody is a hypocrite, what-about-ism is also a deep insult to progressive and peace minded activists within countries such as Great Britain...

(The country where I am leaving now).

So...
Accusing somebody of whataboutism is as "kind" as accusing another person of hypocrisy?

*a deep insult to...
Wait...
A word is an insult depending to whom it is addressed?
I am confused here... If I think that somebody is an hypocrite, not calling him so would be... hypocrisy?

*(intentionally or on purpose)
(I am confused here too. A bit less, anyway).

I think this is way off topic, but...

*that you think somebody...
Wait...
What I think?, are you really getting there?

Let's say that "whataboutism" is a great word to use in this forum, but that " " is forbidden from now on and until the end of time.

(Unless, of course, you mean that it really depends of who is addressing what word to whom).

[raklian]

Guys, let's get a move on. We're getting sidetracked here. I'm sure all of you agree with that.

[wjfox]

Ukraine regains Kherson villages from Russians

6 minutes ago

Ukrainian forces have liberated a key village in the southern region of Kherson, hastening another speedy Russian military retreat.

The defence ministry in Kyiv posted a video showing the 35th marine brigade hoisting a Ukrainian flag above Davydiv Brid, amid reports of several other nearby villages being recaptured.

Russian forces have already been forced to retreat in Ukraine's north east.

They are now being pushed back in the south as well.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63137061

[Yuli Ban]

Samotsvety Nuclear Risk update October 2022 - EA Forum
Elite superforecasters with good track record estimate a 23% chance of a nuclear exchange in Ukraine in the next year. And if nuke used, 14% chance nuclear exchange will escalate beyond Ukraine-Russia the year after

After recent events in Ukraine, Samotsvety convened to update our probabilities of nuclear war. In March 2022, at the beginning of the Ukraine war, we were at ~0.01% that London would be hit with a nuclear weapon in the next month. Now, we are at ~0.02% for the next 1-3 months, and at 16% that Russia uses any type of nuclear weapon in Ukraine. At the end of the post, we reflect on the size of our update, and what this means about our accuracy.

Expected values are more finicky and more person-dependent than probabilities, and readers are encouraged to enter their own estimates, for which we provide a template. We’d guess that readers would lose 2 to 300 hours by staying in London in the next 1–3 months, but this estimate is at the end of a garden of forking paths, and more pessimistic or optimistic readers might make different methodological choices. We would recommend leaving if Russia uses a tactical nuclear weapon in Ukraine.

Since March, we have also added our track record to samotsvety.org/track-record, which might be of use to readers when considering how much weight to give to our predictions.

[caltrek]

^^^ Oh S__t.

That is much higher than the 1 to 2% chance a lot of "forecasters" have been offering. Although 1 to 2% may be overly optimistic, I do think that there is a lot of poker-faced bluffing going on. Neither side really wants an escalated nuclear war. Yet, neither side really wants to back down. It will be like OMG they are really getting serious, to OMG it is really going to happen, to the announcement of a sudden diplomatic breakthrough with face saving conditions for both sides.

Of course, part of the bluffing is the whole "Putin is a mad man" routine. The whole point of the bluff being to frighten and intimidate.

That is why those that oppose capitulation are right. Once you give in to nuclear blackmail, it is never going to end. On the other hand, wise men like Chomksy also have a point, negotiations are much to be desired. As I have earlier expressed, I really don't want to see civilization as we know it end because a "real estate deal" goes bad.

[Yuli Ban]

[ibm9000]

...elements of the 126th Coastal Defense Brigade of the Black Sea Fleet have operated in the area without rotation since March and that the frontline is stretched so thin that some villages in this sector have 15 men defending them.[31] The milblogger claimed that a frontline of 20km needs 500 men to defend at approximately 20m per person and that, due to under-staffing in battalions in northern Kherson Oblast, the ratio was one soldier per 60m of line.

ISW.

With this kind of "information" I cannot make head nor tail out of it. What are those elements of the 126th Bde?, none of them have been rotated or the Bde hasn't been rotated?, do we have any Ukrainian unit to compare?
In WW2, one btn (those 500 men more or less) defends -not "hold"- a 2km front, MGs, mortars and artillery support; today is the same (the range of missile/tank vs tank is longer, but not usually the actual fighting range). If, big if, that is the defender's situation, the advance is not that difficult; does Ukraine has the 2 btn to attack that 2km front?.
If that is the situation and Ukraine has those troops and Russia is not using massive air support (as it has been happening so far), we may have another kupiansk; not the end of the war.
How reliable is that blogger?, do we we have any "information" about the other side of the hill or just names on the map?
To advance while covering your flank with a river is (kindergarden tactics) an evidently good idea, so evident that Russia "should have" prepared for it. Lack of troops, again?; the Stavka took no action at Kupiansk.

I cannot remember that Davydid Brid was any kind of "key" location when Russia retook it...

[erowind]

.