2022 midterm election thread

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YouGov/Yahoo GCB

Adults: D+5 (38-33)
RV: D+4 (45-41) … was D+5 (45-40) three weeks ago
“Definitely voting this fall”: D+3 (47-44)
“Probably/maybe voting”: D+8 (44-36)
“Those voted in all 3 national elections between 2016 and 2020”: D+3 (47-44)
“Those paying a lot of attention to the campaign”: D+1 (48-47)

https://news.yahoo.com/poll-midterm-mom ... 44613.html

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ere are the current 538 polling averages for the Democrats in competitive races, with changes from one month ago:

AZ: Kelly +6.9 (-0.9)
CO: Bennet +9.1 (+0.5)
FL: Demings -3.8 (+0.1)
GA: Warnock +2.1 (+0.4)
NV: Cortez Masto +0.7 (-3.1)
NH: Hassan +7.5 (+3.8 )
NC: Beasley -0.3 (-0.1)
OH: Ryan +0.6 (no change)
PA: Fetterman +6.0 (-2.1)
WI: Barnes -1.0 (-4.8 )

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Party Count Percent
Democrat 11,163 49.5
Republican 5,870 26.0
None/Minor 5,519 24.5
TOTAL 22,552 100.0


Total Early Votes: 107,263
Mail Ballots Requested: 3,673,855

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Most Latinos Say Democrats Care About Them, Work Harder for Votes Than GOP

by Hector Luis Alamo

September 29, 2022

Introduction:

(Latino Rebels) WASHINGTON — A substantial majority of Latinos say the Democratic Party cares about them and works harder for their votes than the Republicans, according to a report published by Pew Research Center on Thursday.

The report also shows that a slim majority (52 percent) say there isn’t a great deal of difference in what the two parties stand for.

The numbers are based on a survey of 3,029 Latinos conducted by Pew from August 1 to 14, 2022.

(See linked article for tables of specific polling results).

Forty-five percent of the Latinos surveyed said that the Republican Party “works hard to earn the votes of Latinos,” and about 34 percent do not believe that “the Democratic Party really cares about Latinos” or that “the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like you.”

As an indication of the resentment felt toward both parties, more than one in five Latinos (22 percent) say neither party “really cares about Latinos.”

Read more here: https://www.latinorebels.com/author/hectorluisalamojr/

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Colorado Senate:

Bennet (D-inc) 46% (+10)
O'Dea (R) 36%

Keating Research/Magellan Strategies/@HealthierColo
, 1,060 LV, 9/18-26

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Most Latinos Say Democrats Care About Them, Work Harder for Votes Than GOP

by Hector Luis Alamo

September 29, 2022

Introduction:

(Latino Rebels) WASHINGTON — A substantial majority of Latinos say the Democratic Party cares about them and works harder for their votes than the Republicans, according to a report published by Pew Research Center on Thursday.

The report also shows that a slim majority (52 percent) say there isn’t a great deal of difference in what the two parties stand for.

The numbers are based on a survey of 3,029 Latinos conducted by Pew from August 1 to 14, 2022.

(See linked article for tables of specific polling results).

Forty-five percent of the Latinos surveyed said that the Republican Party “works hard to earn the votes of Latinos,” and about 34 percent do not believe that “the Democratic Party really cares about Latinos” or that “the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like you.”

As an indication of the resentment felt toward both parties, more than one in five Latinos (22 percent) say neither party “really cares about Latinos.”

Read more here: https://www.latinorebels.com/author/hectorluisalamojr/

Considering in 2008, 2012 and 2016 70-74% of these people voted for the democrats this isn't exactly good for your party.

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Most Latinos Say Democrats Care About Them, Work Harder for Votes Than GOP

by Hector Luis Alamo

September 29, 2022

Introduction:

(Latino Rebels) WASHINGTON — A substantial majority of Latinos say the Democratic Party cares about them and works harder for their votes than the Republicans, according to a report published by Pew Research Center on Thursday.

The report also shows that a slim majority (52 percent) say there isn’t a great deal of difference in what the two parties stand for.

The numbers are based on a survey of 3,029 Latinos conducted by Pew from August 1 to 14, 2022.

(See linked article for tables of specific polling results).

Forty-five percent of the Latinos surveyed said that the Republican Party “works hard to earn the votes of Latinos,” and about 34 percent do not believe that “the Democratic Party really cares about Latinos” or that “the Democratic Party represents the interests of people like you.”

As an indication of the resentment felt toward both parties, more than one in five Latinos (22 percent) say neither party “really cares about Latinos.”

Read more here: https://www.latinorebels.com/author/hectorluisalamojr/

Considering in 2008, 2012 and 2016 70-74% of these people voted for the democrats this isn't exactly good for your party.

There is definitely room for improvement.

• MSNBC had a very interesting segment in their The Last Word time slot. It showed what happened in a heavily Latino district where the Democrats failed to offer much support for their candidate and the Republicans poured in a lot of financial resources. Unsurprisingly, the Republicans won that Texas congressional district race

• Florida is very difficult terrain for Democrats. Many of the Latinos of that state are immigrants or descendants of immigrants who had fled Castro's regime. So, there is a strong under-current of anti-Communist sentiment. These negative feelings extend to those who would call themselves Democratic Socialists.

• Even some immigrants from Latin America came from countries that were at least temporarily governed by the left. While others fled more right-wing regimes.

• Hispanics tend to be either Catholic or descendants of Catholic households. So, they can actually be quite conservative on social issues.

• There are also class divisions. Like Anglos, Latinos who belong to the upper middle class can be more conservative than other Latinos. Yet, they can also be more likely to be looked upon for their leadership experience. So, they can have a disproportionate influence on their fellow Latinos, even those who might otherwise register and/or vote for Democrats when both party candidates are of an ethnic background different then their own.

So, yes, Democrats should never take them for granted.

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'Pro-Life' Herschel Walker Paid for Girlfriend's Abortion [View all]
Source: The Daily Beast

Herschel Walker, the football legend now running for Senate in Georgia, says he wants to completely ban abortion, likening it to murder and claiming there should be “no exception” for rape, incest, or the life of the mother.

But the Republican candidate has supported at least one exception—for himself.

A woman who asked not to be identified out of privacy concerns told The Daily Beast that, after she and Walker conceived a child while they were dating in 2009, he urged her to get an abortion. The woman said she had the procedure and that Walker reimbursed her for it.

She supported these claims with a $575 receipt from the abortion clinic, a “get well” card from Walker, and a bank deposit receipt that included an image of a signed $700 personal check from Walker.

Read more: https://www.thedailybeast.com/pro-life- ... e?ref=home

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Total Early Votes: 112,693
Mail Ballots Requested: 6,101,791

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https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/P ... eneral.pdf

General Statistics Total Absentee Ballots Cast
Total Absentee Ballots Cast 13,690 One-Stop early voting 0
Total Registered Voters 7,390,398 Civilian 12,709
Approx. Eligible Voters 7,390,398 Military 147
Turnout 0.19% Overseas 834
13,690

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Florida Senate:
Rubio (R-Inc) 48% (+7)
Demings (D) 41%
.
Florida Governor:
DeSantis (R-inc) 49% (+8)
Crist (D) 41%

.@SienaResearch
, 669 LV, 9/18-25

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Nevada Senate:
Adam Laxalt (R) 45% (+2)
Catherine Cortez Masto (D-inc) 43%
.
Nevada Governor:
Joe Lombardo (R) 45% (+3)
Steve Sisolak (D-inc) 42%

.@OHPredictive
/@TheNVIndy
, 741 LV, 9/20-29

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Indiana Senate:

Todd Young (R-inc) 39%
Tom McDermott (D) 37%
James Sceniak (L) 6
Undecided 17%

ARW Strategies/@IndyPolitics
, 600 LV, 9/25-26

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Total Early Votes: 151,857
Mail Ballots Requested: 7,358,750

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Herschel Walker Scandals Emerge
by Alex Henderson
October 5, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) Former football star Herschel Walker, who is hoping to unseat Democratic incumbent Sen. Raphael Warnock in Georgia’s 2022 U.S. Senate race, is campaigning as an anti-abortion hardliner — declaring that he opposes abortion even in cases of rape or incest or even if a pregnant woman’s life is in danger. But on Monday night, October 3, the Daily Beast reported that Walker had impregnated a woman in 2009 and paid for an abortion.

Walker has vehemently denied her allegations, although his son Christian Walker finds the allegations and the Beast’s reporting to be totally credible.

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/10/hersc ... 58400224/

Herschel Walker Reportedly Lied About Supervising Hospitals
by Brandon Gage
October 5, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) Herschel Walker, the Republican United States Senate candidate in Georgia whose campaign has been peppered with scandals and defined by his own misrepresentations about his résumé, has been caught in yet another lie, according to a Wednesday report in The Huffington Post.

"In September 2011, ESPN was rolling out its new documentary about Herschel Walker — but the man of the hour wouldn’t be at the big premiere because, he said, he had real work to do," HuffPost recalled. At the time, Walker claimed that he was unavailable because he had to "head back to Arkansas for a sales meeting at my chicken factory."

In July of 2022, a New York Times investigation found that Walker had not been honest about his involvement with a poultry producer.

“They don’t know that I have this food service company," Walker stated in 2011, adding that he has "a drapery company" and that he oversaw "six hospitals around the United States." That last part, HuffPost pointed out, is totally unsubstantiated.

"The reason not many people know about Walker supervising hospitals around the country is because it doesn’t appear that he ever did," HuffPost explaned. And while there were multiple media reports in 2008 that chronicled Walker's supposed roles with healthcare facilities, HuffPost noted that "there is no evidence that Walker ever supervised or started hospitals or medical centers. His personal financial disclosure forms, which have already been amended multiple times, do not indicate he ever owned or ran hospitals."

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/10/hersc ... ospitals/

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Warnock Opens 12-Point Lead on Walker in Georgia Senate Race
Source: Bloomberg

US Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia has opened a double-digit lead in his bid for re-election next month against Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a new poll shows.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

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Warnock Opens 12-Point Lead on Walker in Georgia Senate Race
Source: Bloomberg

US Senator Raphael Warnock of Georgia has opened a double-digit lead in his bid for re-election next month against Republican challenger Herschel Walker, a new poll shows.

Read more: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ify%20wall

I suspect this poll may be a bit too optimistic. An Insider Advantage/FOX5 poll (see link below) shows Warnock with only a three-point lead, within the margin of error for that poll. Still, even that is encouraging news for Warnock and those who want to see the Democrats maintain control of the U.S. Senate.

https://www.fox5atlanta.com/news/warnoc ... llegations

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I have just cited an article by David Corn that I placed in the Italy news and discussion thread. The article also discusses by way of comparison the U.S. Senate race in Ohio. Due to copyright considerations, rather than including a further citation here, I will just leave this link for those that might have missed the item posted in the other thread:

https://www.motherjones.com/politics/20 ... nate-race/

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Just when the Democrats received some good news regarding the narrow Senate race in Georgia, recent poll results show in Nevada the Republican Adam Laxalt with a narrow lead over Democrat incumbent Catherine Cortez Masto. Pennsylvania looks like a pretty sure bet for a swing to the Democrats, so another 50-50 split in the U.S. Senate may very well occur.

A 51-49 split in favor of the Democrats is also possible if a narrow lead for Tim Ryan holds up in his race against Republican J.D. Vance in Ohio.

Here is a report on a recent poll result in Nevada: https://www.documentcloud.org/document ... ober-2022