Ukraine War Watch Thread

[raklian]

This is pretty much my thought. Any nuclear strike on Ukraine no matter how small will likely result in a full conventional NATO intervention into Ukraine, with a no-fly zone. If not an outright transfer of nuclear weapons to Ukraine to use as they wish against Russia. With civil strife starting within Russia as well it will likely also result in NATO stirring up a civil war in Russia's south.

It's basically signalling to Putin's inner circle to do something about him.

[Xyls]

It's not even Putin that needs to be dealt with it's Putin needs to deal with his nationalist circles. If Putin was smart he should've targeted Russian ultra-nationalists for mobilization first to get rid of them which then gives him an offramp to descalate the war. Instead he is trying to target minorities which is likely going to start a civil war. Basically the West doesn't want Putin to fall, but Putin is not helping himself by being a dumbass.

[raklian]

It's not even Putin that needs to be dealt with it's Putin needs to deal with his nationalist circles. If Putin was smart he should've targeted Russian ultra-nationalists for mobilization first to get rid of them which then gives him an offramp to descalate the war. Instead he is trying to target minorities which is likely going to start a civil war. Basically the West doesn't want Putin to fall, but Putin is not helping himself by being a dumbass.

Be that as it may be, it seems to me that the threat of "catastrophic consequences" by the USA is aimed at the top Russian leaders, civic and military, signaling to them unless they do something about Putin's escalatory rhetoric, they will lose whatever prestige and influence they have now. We've reached a point USA is now probably redirecting resources into engaging in a psychological warfare against Russia which I think Biden is allowing as long as it doesn't risk direct combat with Russian assets unless the situation markedly escalates because Russia actually used a nuke.

[caltrek]

Russian Officials Play Down Putin’s Nuclear Threat
September 23, 2022

Introduction:

(Al Jazeera) Days after Russian President Vladimir Putin made a thinly veiled nuclear threat to Ukraine and its Western allies, Russian officials played down the warning.

On Friday, Sergei Ryabkov, Russia’s deputy foreign minister, said Moscow was not threatening the use of nuclear weapons and that any confrontation with NATO and the United States was not in the Kremlin’s interests.

“We are not threatening anyone with nuclear weapons,” Ryabkov told reporters. “The criteria for their use are outlined in Russia’s military doctrine.”
In a televised address earlier this week, Putin said he was “not bluffing” about using nuclear weapons if Russian territories were threatened as he announced a partial mobilisation to boost the military fighting in Ukraine.

But Ryabkov said Russia was not seeking “open confrontation” with the US or NATO and did not want the situation to escalate further.

Read more here: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/9/ ... -minister

[caltrek]

UN Investigators Just Issued Their First Report on Russian War Crimes in Ukraine. It Is Horrific.
by Hannah Levintova
September 24, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) On Friday, investigators working for the United Nations delivered a sobering statement to the UN Human Rights Council detailing evidence of Russian war crimes committed as part of the nation’s ongoing occupation of Ukraine, including the rape of children, torture, beatings, electric shocks, forced nudity, and the disappearance of people taken into Russian detention.

These findings came as part of the first official update from three experts who were asked to investigate allegations of war crimes that first arose this spring, soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Their investigation focused on four areas of Ukraine—Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy—where horrific reports of alleged war crimes, including the rape of civilians and summary executions, began to emerge between late February and March of this year as Russia began its war. Friday’s report is the first from the UN to bring forth extensive evidence backing up these allegations, including through interviews with dozens of victims and witnesses.

“We are concerned by the suffering that the armed conflict in Ukraine has imposed on the civilian population,” Erik Mose, chairman of the investigative commission, told the UN.

Mose’s team told the UN they’d interviewed 150 victims and witnesses across 27 towns and settlements, studied documents, and inspected graves, weapon remnants, and places where detention and torture occurred.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -ukraine/

[caltrek]

When Everything Is a Weapon, Everyone Is a Victim
by Gautam Chikermane
September 26, 2022

Extract:

(Observer Research Foundation via Eurasia Review) On 2 September 2022, Russia indefinitely suspended Nord Stream gas to Europe.
…
Over the next six months, instead of gas, Russia will export an idea that Europe has long forgotten— discomfort. To borrow from the clinical manual for nursing practice that asks patients to describe the intensity of pain from 0 (no pain) to 10 (worst pain imaginable), an entire continent will be writhing in discomfort between October 2022 and April 2023. For citizens of northern Europe, the pain will be 7 to 10, severe. In southern Europe, it will be 4 to 6, moderate. In between will be islands of hyper-pain and no pain.

On the other side, Russia which is inflicting this pain as part of its strategic design will remain unaffected in the short term. In a conflict that is expected to last longer, 12 to 24 months of gas-free revenues to a nation already under great financial stress will not matter. Further, even though Moscow may not feel the pressures of politics of the sort that Berlin or Rome does, at some point the economic pain delivered through sanctions will begin to pinch. And if we peep into recent history, there are the Russian mothers, who in the 1980s pressured the Kremlin to give answers for their children returning in coffins from Afghanistan, and in 2000 had a face-off with Putin when the nuclear submarine Kursk sank with 118 sons in it. The political system did not overturn then, and it will not capsize now, but under the scrutiny of the weak and the powerless, it will definitely face pressures.
…
On 17 September 2022, in response to Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s advice that today “is not the era of war”, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin said, “We want all of this to end as soon as possible”. The Russia-Ukraine conflict should inform democratic debates in the region about the futility of power plays. It should tame the aggressive ambitions of China in Taiwan, the South China Sea region, and India. And even as soldiers and citizens face the brunt of these games, leaderships need to evaluate the larger risk-reward equilibrium.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/26092022 ... analysis/

[caltrek]

Ukraine Situation Report: Multiple Russian Aircraft Shot Down In A Day
by Stetson Payne and Tyler Rogoway
September 24, 2022

Introduction:

(The Drive) A day after air defenses had to confront waves of Iranian-supplies suicide drones, Ukraine says it shot down 4 Russian tactical jet aircraft Saturday over the frontlines.

The Ukrainian General Staff claimed troops shot down two Russian Su-30SM Flankers, a Su-25SM Frogfoot, a Su-34 Fullback, five drones, and a cruise missile. Footage showed a Su-34 trailing fire from its right engine over the frontline in Kharkiv Oblast, with a later clip showing a fireball and crash site in the area.

(See linked article for Twitter feeds)

Later videos showed an Su-30SM crashing after being hit by a missile, with two parachutes seen descending nearby. Ukraine's total shootdown claims cannot be independently confirmed at this time, though multiple aircraft do appear to have been shot down.

It isn't clear what has caused this spike in sorties and shoot-downs, but it is possible that pressure for the Russian Air Force to halt Ukraine's progress on the battlefield and complicate its forces' ability to hold recaptured territory has increased.

Read more here: https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/ ... -in-a-day

[wjfox]

UN Investigators Just Issued Their First Report on Russian War Crimes in Ukraine. It Is Horrific.
by Hannah Levintova
September 24, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) On Friday, investigators working for the United Nations delivered a sobering statement to the UN Human Rights Council detailing evidence of Russian war crimes committed as part of the nation’s ongoing occupation of Ukraine, including the rape of children, torture, beatings, electric shocks, forced nudity, and the disappearance of people taken into Russian detention.

These findings came as part of the first official update from three experts who were asked to investigate allegations of war crimes that first arose this spring, soon after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. Their investigation focused on four areas of Ukraine—Kyiv, Chernihiv, Kharkiv and Sumy—where horrific reports of alleged war crimes, including the rape of civilians and summary executions, began to emerge between late February and March of this year as Russia began its war. Friday’s report is the first from the UN to bring forth extensive evidence backing up these allegations, including through interviews with dozens of victims and witnesses.

“We are concerned by the suffering that the armed conflict in Ukraine has imposed on the civilian population,” Erik Mose, chairman of the investigative commission, told the UN.

Mose’s team told the UN they’d interviewed 150 victims and witnesses across 27 towns and settlements, studied documents, and inspected graves, weapon remnants, and places where detention and torture occurred.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -ukraine/

But apparently it's all NATO's fault, and Russia deserves concessions.

/s

[ibm9000]

This is pretty much my thought. Any nuclear strike on Ukraine...

- a full conventional NATO intervention
How legal is a NATO intervention in Ukraine? Conventional NATO war against Russia... and you don't think that is WW3?

- a no-fly zone
A no-fly zone when Russia is already flying combat missions there is WW3; and a direct attack on Russian forces.

- transfer of nuclear weapons
Scalation! great idea, it always works so well. This case specially, final prize: WW3!

- civil strife starting
Is it?, no rallies and protests around here?

- stirring up a civil war
Another great idea! and coming straight from our higher moral standards; not to mention the -unpredictable?- consequences, because they always get such beautiful results...

It's basically signalling to

Or not and it's politics, Putin basically signalling stop messing with my war.

[ibm9000]

That

Xyls

meme reminds me of...

I ain't no senator's son...

[raklian]

It's basically signalling to

Or not and it's politics, Putin basically signalling stop messing with my war.

Putin knows we're going to "mess" with his war no matter what he does. Heck, he even knows it is in our interest to do so for the sake of maintaining our sphere of influence. And that's what we've been doing since the whole thing started, so the "bluff" is more of Putin warning us not to make it any worse than it already has. Well, that's totally up to him. If he escalates, we escalate too, which is precisely what we're warning him.

[andmar74]

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-russ ... ?r=US&IR=T

US says it told the Kremlin that Russia will face 'catastrophic consequences' if it uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine

I wonder what they told the Russians.

[caltrek]

It's basically signalling to

Or not and it's politics, Putin basically signalling stop messing with my war.

Putin knows we're going to "mess" with his war no matter what he does. Heck, he even knows it is in our interest to do so for the sake of maintaining our sphere of influence. And that's what we've been doing since the whole thing started, so the "bluff" is more of Putin warning us not to make it any worse than it already has. Well, that's totally up to him. If he escalates, we escalate too, which is precisely what we're warning him.

Yes. What I worry about that may be missing is what are metaphorically referred to as "offramps." Ways of letting Putin walk away from the situation with a minimum of damage to himself politically. Not that he doesn't deserve to be removed from office. More for the sake of avoiding World War III. I am not sure if he ever used the word "offramps", but that is also pretty much the sort of thing Naom Chomsky worries about. Not that Chomsky does not consider Putin's actions to not be criminal, or that Ukraine should have capitulated to earlier demands made by Putin.

My very first boss in my post graduate professional career gave me a very important pointer. When negotiating with a potential political rival, always keep them from feeling cornered. Always give them a way out so that they can save face. Emotionally, many of us may want to see Putin hung from a tree while he dies an agonizing death because of his criminal behavior. Still, to avoid World War III...

[raklian]

https://www.businessinsider.com/us-russ ... ?r=US&IR=T

US says it told the Kremlin that Russia will face 'catastrophic consequences' if it uses tactical nuclear weapons in Ukraine

I wonder what they told the Russians.

It's what a $800 billion defense budget allows us to do, I suppose.

[Cyber_Rebel]

It's what a $800 billion defense budget allows us to do, I suppose.

The UAPs which the United States claims is not theirs, laser weapons, railguns, and other "top secret" futuristic weaponry will finally be deployed. It's possible that once research has been advanced enough, nuclear war clould be at least mitigated in its scope. I'd hope so at least.

[raklian]

Or not and it's politics, Putin basically signalling stop messing with my war.

Putin knows we're going to "mess" with his war no matter what he does. Heck, he even knows in our interest to do so for the sake of maintaining our sphere of influence. And that's what we've been doing since the whole thing started, so the "bluff" is more of Putin warning us not to make it any worse than it already has. Well, that's totally up to him. If he escalates, we escalate too, which is precisely what we're warning him.

Yes. What I worry about that may be missing is what are metaphorically referred to as "offramps." Ways of letting Putin walk away from the situation with a minimum of damage to himself politically. Not that he doesn't deserve to be removed from office. More for the sake of avoiding World War III. I am not sure if he ever used the word "offramps", but that is also pretty much the sort of thing Naom Chomsky worries about. Not that Chomsky does not consider Putin's actions to not be criminal, or that Ukraine should have capitulated to earlier demands made by Putin.

My very first boss in my post graduate professional career gave me a very important pointer. When negotiating with a potential political rival, always keep them from feeling cornered. Always give them a way out so that they can save face. Emotionally, many of us may want to see Putin hung from a tree while he dies an agonizing death because of his criminal behavior. Still, to avoid World War III...

What I'm more afraid of is we inadvertently make a series of decisions which lead to the kind of world where we tolerate deploying nukes on a limited scale without facing as much backlash as we do now. I'm thinking the country that manages to finally deploy a respectable laser defense system capable of thwarting most nuclear attacks will feel more justified in using its own nukes. We need to somehow avoid that at any costs because it is truly a slippery slope from there.

[weatheriscool]

Ukraine Downs 12 Russian Aircraft, Boosting Battlefield Pressure on Moscow
Source: Wall Street Journal

KYIV—Ukraine dealt Russia’s Air Force some of its heaviest blows in months over the weekend, shooting down four war planes and eight Iranian-made drones that Russia has recently deployed, Ukrainian officials said, highlighting the losses Russians are taking as they try to boost control of the air.

The Ukrainian strikes follow some of the biggest gains by Kyiv since the start of the war and maintain Ukraine’s momentum on the battlefield. The losses raised the number of Russian planes downed to about 60 since the start of the invasion.

Russia’s Iranian-made drones attacked Odessa, a historic port city on the Black Sea, early Sunday. No one was hurt and one of the drones was shot down by air defenses, Ukraine’s southern command said.
Ukraine’s Air Force spokesman Yuriy Ignat said

Ukrainian forces had shot down eight drones in the past 24 hours using small arms and air-defense systems. He said four Il-76 transport planes had flown to Russia carrying shipments of the Iranian drones, including the Shahed-136, which is used as a “suicide” drone to attack targets.

Read more: https://www.wsj.com/amp/articles/ukrain ... 1664103886

[ibm9000]

Putin knows we're going to ...

Yes, we have been doing that from the very beginning, what I don't know is what anybody is messing behind the scenes.
Is Ukraine our sphere of influence?, since when?, Belarus too?, what about Iran?
We escalate?, you are happily walking into WW3 and I am not quite sure about that of "Russia will suffer"... only Russia?

[raklian]

Putin knows we're going to ...

We escalate?, you are happily walking into WW3 and I am not quite sure about that of "Russia will suffer"... only Russia?

Well, we've been telling them they will face "horrific" consequences if they use a nuke. Make of it what you will. I'm not even sure what that involves except they privately told Moscow specifically what the consequences are. I wonder why they told them in private rather than public. Maybe it's not to cause a panic?

[raklian]

The dude on the bench...