2022 midterm election thread

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North Carolina 9-22.

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/P ... eneral.pdf

Dem- 2,506
Rep- 665
Other 1,428

Dems normally dominate the early absentee vote in NC so about what we should expect.

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Early Voting Begins:

Minnesota – Sept. 23
South Dakota – Sept. 23
Virginia – Sept. 23
Wyoming – Sept. 23
Illinois – Sept. 29
Michigan – Sept. 29
Maine – Oct. 9
California – Oct. 10
Montana – Oct. 11
Nebraska – Oct. 11
New Mexico – Oct. 11
Arizona – Oct. 12
Indiana – Oct. 12
Ohio – Oct. 12
Georgia – Oct. 17
Iowa – Oct. 19
Kansas – Oct. 19
Rhode Island – Oct. 19
Tennessee – Oct. 19
North Carolina – Oct. 20
Washington – Oct. 21
Massachusetts – Oct. 22
Nevada – Oct. 22
Arkansas – Oct. 24
Colorado – Oct. 24
Idaho – Oct. 24
South Carolina – Oct. 24
Texas – Oct. 24
Hawaii – Oct. 25
Missouri – Oct. 25
Louisiana – Oct. 25
Utah – Oct. 25
West Virginia – Oct. 26
Maryland – Oct. 27
Delaware – Oct. 28
Florida – Oct. 29
New Jersey – Oct. 29
New York – Oct. 29

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Koch Bankrolls Dozens of Election Denier Candidates
by Peter Stone
September 23, 2022

Introduction:

(The Guardian) Fossil fuel giant Koch Industries has poured over $1m into backing – directly and indirectly – dozens of House and Senate candidates who voted against certifying Joe Biden’s win on 6 January 2021.

Koch, which is controlled by multibillionaire Charles Koch, boasts a corporate Pac that has donated $607,000 to the campaigns or leadership Pacs of 52 election deniers since January 2021, making Koch’s Pac the top corporate funder of members who opposed the election results, according to OpenSecrets, which tracks campaign spending.

In addition, the Super Pac Americans for Prosperity Action to which Koch Industries has given over $6m since January 2021, has backed some election deniers with advertising and other communications support, as well as a few candidates Donald Trump has endorsed who tried to help him overturn the 2020 election, or raised doubts about the final results.

Read more here: https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/20 ... andidates

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Republican Gubernatorial Candidates are 'Floundering' in Michigan, Wisconsin, and Minnesota
by Alex Henderson
September, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) A year ago, many Democratic strategists feared that the 2022 midterms would bring a major red wave like the ones in 1994 and 2010. But that was before the U.S. Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade, angering millions of Americans and giving Democrats a major issue to use against Republican candidates.

One of the Democrats who has been hammering her Republican opponent relentlessly over abortion is Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, whose far-right MAGA challenger, Tudor Dixon, opposes abortion even for rape or incest victims. That race is one of the three gubernatorial battles that the Daily Beast’s Sam Brodey discusses in an article published on September 23; the other two are in Wisconsin and Minnesota. And Brodey stresses that the GOP candidates in those three races are all “floundering.”

“In Michigan, former actress and MAGA media personality Tudor Dixon began the general election with just two full-time campaign staffers, according to MLive.com, and had roughly 28 times less cash on hand than Gov. Gretchen Whitmer,” Brodey explains. “Next door in Wisconsin, businessman Tim Michels emerged victorious from a primary in which he spent $12 million of his own money — only to run an apparently shoestring campaign against Gov. Tony Evers with a handful of full-time staffers and plenty of bad blood left over from that primary. And in Minnesota, the COVID-skeptic doctor Scott Jensen is trailing Gov. Tim Walz badly in fundraising and polling while his lightning-rod lieutenant governor nominee — the former pro football player Matt Birk — traveled out of state to give a paid speech to an insurance conference.”

Brodey continues, “In a midterm year favoring the party out of power, these Great Lakes states were supposed to be especially fertile terrain for Republicans to recapture control. Michigan and Wisconsin are two of the most perennially hard-fought states in the country; Minnesota leans more Democratic, but it has been targeted more energetically by the GOP in recent years.”

Read more of the Alternet article here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/09/doug- ... 8330357/

Read the Daily Beast article by Sam Brodey here: https://www.thedailybeast.com/how-gop- ... ?ref=home

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Dem- 3,102 (+596)
Rep- 832 (+167)
Other 1,428 1,767 (+339)

Dem- 54.22% (-0.27%)
Rep- 14.54% (+0.08%)
U/A- 30.89% (+0.19%)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/P ... eneral.pdf

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Unfortunately, the latest Trafalgar poll indicates that just maybe the Republican candidate for governor in Wisconsin is really not "floundering."

Wisconsin Governor - Michels(R) vs. Evers(D) Trafalgar Group (R) Evers 47, Michels 48 Michels +1

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SOUTH DAKOTA:
DEM: 3,035
IND: 1,204
NPA: 675
REP: 6,445

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Current House forecast:

Economist: R 221.5 - D 213.5
538: R 224 - D 211
YouGov: R 223 - D 212

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Virginia's early vote tracker is up! 11,000 votes have been accepted so far, with results by CD and county.

https://www.vpap.org/elections/early-vo ... -election/

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September 25, 2022

Dem- 3,657 (+555)
Rep- 983 (+151)
Other 2,078 (+311)

Dem- 54.27% (+0.05%)
Rep- 14.59% (+0.05%)
U/A- 30.84% (-0.05%)

https://s3.amazonaws.com/dl.ncsbe.gov/P ... eneral.pdf

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Reuters/Ipsos

41% approve (+2)
53% disapprove (-4)

(changes from last week)

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ProPublica’s User’s Guide to Democracy
by Karim Doumar and Cynthia Gordy Giwa
September 25, 2022

Introduction:

(ProPublica)
Who You’ll Be Voting for in the 2022 Midterm Elections

We’re going to start off with some basics. (You probably learned some of this in elementary school, but it’s easy to forget, and we need to start somewhere!)

Members of Congress

Made up of the Senate and the House of Representatives, which together are theoretically coequal to the presidency, Congress is tasked with making laws on our behalf.

Each member of the Senate represents their entire state, with two senators per state. Unless filling a vacancy, senators are elected to six-year terms, and every two years about one-third of them are up for election. That means a lot of places don’t have a Senate race this year. You can see which senators’ terms are ending here.

No matter what state you live in, your congressional district is voting for a House representative in this year’s election. Each of the 435 House members represents a portion of their state, known as a congressional district, averaging 760,000 people. This is the person in the federal government closest to you, working in your district’s name. You can find your representative and their voting history in ProPublica’s Represent database. (See hyperlink within hyperlinked article to access data base).

The 2022 midterms have an added complication: redistricting. Every 10 years, states go through a political process of redrawing their congressional districts. Sometimes it’s because the state has gained or lost house seats after the census. For example after the 2020 census, Texas gained two house seats while California and West Virginia lost one each. In fact, seven states lost a seat, and six gained seats.

Read more here: https://www.propublica.org/article/202 ... on-basics

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https://rpubs.com/ElectProject/early_vote_2022

Votes are starting to come in from Pennsylvania but numbers so far are low, 1269 total, it's not worth breaking it down yet.

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New National Early Vote totals:

September 28, 2022:

Party Count Percent
Democrat 6,377 54.2
Republican 2,101 17.9
None/Minor 3,284 27.9
TOTAL 11,762 100.0

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Crystal Ball rating changes:

CA-22: Likely D to Safe D
NJ-11: Likely D to Safe D
NC-14: Likely D to Safe D
OH-09: Tossup to Lean D (previously announced on Twitter)
OR-04: Likely D to Lean D
OR-06: Likely D to Lean D

Quote
With these most recent updates, we currently rate 187 seats as Safe Republican, 16 as Likely Republican, and 12 as Leans Republican — a total of 215 seats at least leaning Republican. We rate 158 seats as Safe Democratic, 14 as Likely Democratic, and 24 as Leans Democratic — a total of 196 seats at least leaning Democratic. There are 24 Toss-ups: Splitting them evenly between the parties would result in a 227-208 Republican House, or a 14-seat Republican gain compared to the 213 seats Republicans won in 2020.

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalba ... the-house/