Ukraine War Watch Thread

[Xyls]

I wonder if a certain russian user is getting his mobilization papers at this moment?

[ibm9000]

So now we believe everything the NK Government says?
Do we believe every oficial statement from every government?

In the UK there were protests about the invasion of Iraq... and they were very beautiful.

When are we invading Myanmar?, it is a dictatorship and it is killing children. What new sanctions are we imposing?, how many forensic teams is the EU sending there?, are we providing the terrorists -because they are fighting the government- with weapons to fight the dictatorship? (As we were providing Saddam Hussein or Osama Bin Laden).

The point was and still is to pull people out of their information bubbles and try to get them to consider looking at objetive information on the events, as in all events.

[wjfox]

[raklian]

I don't think this will end well for Putin. This is going to turn a large portion of the Russian population against him.

[caltrek]

Major Battles Loom as Kremlin Mobilizes More Troops
by Cain Burdeau
September 21, 2022

Extract:

(Courthouse News) “Russia is likely to lose the war,” said Lawrence Freedman, a prominent military scholar at King's College London, talking to Gideon Rachman, the chief foreign affairs columnist for the Financial Times who runs a podcast on world affairs. Freedman made his comments as Ukraine was scoring battlefield victories in Kharkiv.

“We've reached a point where the Russian options have narrowed enormously,” Freedman said. “There's all sorts of grim possibilities that might still await us. But by and large I think this is very much the beginning of the end of the war.”

He doubted Russia will manage to mobilize enough troops in time to prevent Ukraine from beating back Moscow's forces holding onto the Donbas and territories along the Black Sea.

“I think they've just exhausted themselves in the summer,” he said of Russia's army. “Once an army starts to lose, it's very hard to stop it losing quite badly quite quickly.”
…
Also, he doubted Putin can manage a radical escalation because Russia faces a shrinking arsenal of bombs and weapons and the prospect that any mobilization won't alter Russia's disadvantage in manpower until next year while at the same time stirring up discontent inside Russia.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/major-b ... e-troops/

[wjfox]

[Xyls]

More secret laws and bs from Putin. Doesn't really matter though, they won't mobilize in time, they don't have the proper materials to fight, and they won't even have the logistics to keep them alive over the winter either via food or heating.

Also Orban lmao.



So who is going to immigrate in the future with their rapidly declining population?

No one with a brain. That's for sure.

[ibm9000]

“Russia is likely to lose the war,” said Lawrence Freedman...

Has anybody tried a critical reading of what he is saying?

"The stunning success of Ukraine's blitzkrieg-like counteroffensive in the Kharkov region was a devastating blow to Moscow, which saw its troops surrender more than 3,000 square miles of territory."
This doesn't apply to Ukraine? (120.000km2 lost)

“I think they've just exhausted themselves in the summer,” he said of Russia's army. “Once an army starts to lose, it's very hard to stop it losing quite badly quite quickly.”
This doesn't apply to Ukraine?
(One lost battle is "the army" losing?, like the Soviet Army in WW2?).

...

The Authority Bias is often just another form of confirmation bias.

(By the way, he was a member of The Iraq Inquiry/Chilcot Report).

[ibm9000]

More secret laws and bs from Putin. Doesn't really matter though, they won't mobilize in time, they don't have the proper materials to fight, and they won't even have the logistics to keep them alive over the winter either via food or heating.

"A secret clause in Russian president Vladimir Putin’s “partial” mobilisation decree permits the Kremlin to draft far more soldiers than it was announced, a source told the Novaya Gazeta Europe newspaper."

So what we have is a "source" talking about a "secret clause", maybe we should wait until the Kremlin denies it to confirm it.


- they won't mobilize in time
Based on what exactly?

- they don't have the proper materials to fight
Based on what exactly?

- they won't even have the logistics
Based on wishful thinking, maybe?

- over the winter
Because we all know that the Russian army never fights in winter.

[wjfox]

Child heard crying as mobilised Russian men leave to fight

1 hour ago

A child can be heard crying while saying goodbye to their dad in a video shared on Telegram. The video shows shows mobilised Russian men waiting to board buses to go and fight in the war.

The BBC's Will Vernon was able to verify the footage after speaking to locals of Staryi Oskol in Belgorod Region, including one woman who was there when the video was filmed. The footage is being shared in the social media app Telegram.

Russia has begun implementing plans to call up reservists to fight in Ukraine after suffering setbacks there. President Vladimir Putin ordered to mobilise 300,000 more Russians with military experience, sparking protests in the country on Wednesday.

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/av/world-europe-63002654

[Xyls]

Anyways... with all the referendum/mobilization noise today thought should share what is actually going on with the battlefield. It appears Lyman which has been strongly defended by the Russians (surprise for once) since the Kharkiv offensive is about to be encircled which could lead to another catastrophic rout or thousands of Ruski soldiers being killed again. It appears over the last two days the Ukrainians have made crossings of the Oskil River at several locations towards Luhansk and are now beginning to start another offensive.






Putin won't be able to mobilize his troops in time at this point.

Meanwhile terrorist Pushillin is saying things are "difficult" gee wonder why? Also the West is now accelerating arms deliveries and may start producing arms for Ukraine as Russia runs out.




LOL.

[Yuli Ban]

The mobilization may not be enough to crush Ukraine outright, but I think Putin's going to set up a DMZ or even a Jammu/Kashmir situation. Perhaps use a tactical or (god forbid) strategic nuke to back it up and tell the world he's not playing around with its defense, which is obviously a massive gamble. Could just use thermobaric bombardment if he isn't taking that big of a risk.

[Xyls]

Lol, tactical nuke will not help them in this situation. The units are dispersed and hard to locate on the Ukrainian side and will likely just result in them also hitting their own troops. Ukraine isn't going to be deterred by this, and tactical nukes are not actually that large.

On top of this they will now also cross the nuclear threshold for minimal damage inflicted on Ukraine and NATO will 100% respond to that potentially by going up to providing tactical nukes in return to Ukraine to defend themselves and potentially causing NATO to react by announcing they will be looking to admit Ukraine to NATO and potentially establish a no-fly zone because at that point the gloves will come off.

Not to mention he will completely alienate China, India and Turkey by that point. Also even those like Hungary's Orban will find themselves and politically untenable situation if they continue to try to play both sides. I also don't think Putin would try this before the upcoming American midterms as it likely could cause the American public to respond by electing the most hawkish politicians against Russia and weaken the attempts for the Trumpist Russia fans from gaining seats in an attempt to weaken western resolve which at the end of the day is the main victory condition Putin needs for the war. He may change his tune after the November elections in the United States if he is desperate and feels that political resolve in the west won't break.

Right now Putin needs QAnon-type Republicans to win seats, as many of them believe the US should stop funding aid to Ukraine because a bunch of conspiracies around Biden and his son involved Ukraine, and if he uses a tactical nuke before then all headlines are going to focus on the nuclear attack and the American public is going to put huge scrutiny on which politicians are most likely to punish Russia. Why would you score that political self-own. Also any strike now will likely infuriate the West and make it so people are more likely to deal with the energy crisis coming for Europe this winter for the sake of punishing Russia.

Medvedev has hinted at strategic nuclear weapons. If they were to hit a Ukrainian city (which has no military value). NATO will likely transfer Ukraine nuclear weapons accordingly to use against Russian border cities as they see fit. Then it becomes a game of chicken whether sides want to escalate from there. Any nuclear strike in my view will result in the West deciding that the 1994 Budapest Memorandum is null and void for Ukraine and may legally look to assist them in restoring their nuclear capabilities.

[Xyls]

I am beginning to wonder how long it is before ethnic tensions explode within Russia itself due to the mobilization. Sounds like Russia is already ignoring its mobilization quotas and those that it is doing are disproportionately going on ethnic communities and less on ethnic white Russians. Communities are going to figure this out and feel like they are trying to destroy their own male populations in what basically is becoming an effective genocide on all sort of Russian ethnic groups.

This has been so sloppily handled that I could actually see civil unrest beginning before spring comes.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgr ... ptember-22

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/ ... army-drive

[Ozzie guy]

The mobilization may not be enough to crush Ukraine outright, but I think Putin's going to set up a DMZ or even a Jammu/Kashmir situation. Perhaps use a tactical or (god forbid) strategic nuke to back it up and tell the world he's not playing around with its defense, which is obviously a massive gamble. Could just use thermobaric bombardment if he isn't taking that big of a risk.

Honestly I am not sure mobilization will be enough for Russia to win. Mobilized forces will be less motivated, less trained and less well equipped they may negatively impact the moral of the regular army as well. I hear the equipment situation is poor right now as well if that is true it will still be that same equipment spread amongst more people whist Ukraine keeps getting high tech stuff from NATO and their allies. Adding conscripts is logistically hard for any state as well.

Hopefully Russian user is ok and does not get drafted.

[erowind]

.

[ibm9000]

Honestly I am not sure mobilization will be enough for Russia to win...

One thing seems to be certain, there are not that many patriots willing to invade a country in Russia. A few countries have professional armies, not the same thing, it's only their job; the king's shilling.
I am guessing Canada is going to get a lot of "cowards" dodging the war.

-Mobilized forces will be less motivated
Mobilized forces like those Ukraine has recruited?, or like the IDF has used in every war? The motivation, King and Country, doesn't count that much in the trenches, what counts are your mates. Ukraine's soldiers are defending their country, like the confederates, that counts and even then, in every war there are deserters.

-less trained
Russia is calling -mainly, in theory at least- reservists, those who were already in the armed forces. Probably -almost certain-, without any retraining after leaving active service, like in most armies -too expensive-, but unlike the IDF, as far as I know.
If Russia is using those units in three months, after organize and retrain them, good. If after one month, not that good... and military bureaucracy is not known for its efficiency; again, not to mention political pressures.

-less well equipped
Probably, they will use material "in park", unless Russia is using some regular units but filled with reservists, another usual practice in every army.

-they may negatively impact the moral (the morale)
Like the US Army started to run because there were NG units around?, in Vietnam, in Iraq and in Afghanistan? The Russian Army is based on conscription, with some professional rank and file. The "regular" army is conscripts who happen to be enlisted at that moment, who has been there for three months or nine.

-I hear
Yes, we, here, a lot of things.

-it will still be that same equipment spread amongst more people
No, it will be new -active units- or old -park, but how old compare to how many of the latest, latest tanks that Ukraine has; anyway, "old" howitzers, MGs and AKs are just as effective. ("Old" pieces may have a slightly shorter range).

-Ukraine keeps getting
Yes, and as soon as it doesn't... another South Vietnam without American air support? That is a very precarious situation.

-high tech stuff from
You don't win a war with snipers, you don't win a war with drones. Ukraine has been complaining all the time about lack of shells, but it has more than enough "new toys"?

-Adding conscripts
True, as their lack of training and lack of motivation, like in every army. Ukraine has been sending recruits to UK to be trained, what is the situation in Ukraine that it cannot train its own soldiers... once we are talking about logistics. (Maybe the logistics involved could have been put to a better use?).

[wjfox]

[raklian]

[Xyls]

The mobilization may not be enough to crush Ukraine outright, but I think Putin's going to set up a DMZ or even a Jammu/Kashmir situation. Perhaps use a tactical or (god forbid) strategic nuke to back it up and tell the world he's not playing around with its defense, which is obviously a massive gamble. Could just use thermobaric bombardment if he isn't taking that big of a risk.

Honestly I am not sure mobilization will be enough for Russia to win. Mobilized forces will be less motivated, less trained and less well equipped they may negatively impact the moral of the regular army as well. I hear the equipment situation is poor right now as well if that is true it will still be that same equipment spread amongst more people whist Ukraine keeps getting high tech stuff from NATO and their allies. Adding conscripts is logistically hard for any state as well.

Hopefully Russian user is ok and does not get drafted.

Lol, I hope he gets drafted. For the amount of shit he talked I'm assuming he is eager to go to the front.

It's pretty clear that Russia is trying to mobilize these numbers so that instead of trying to shift troops around to defend the territory they already have between Kherson and Kharkiv which allows Ukraine to attack wherever is weakest and cause routs they in theory should just have enough troops everywhere at all times. (This is because Russia rushed a bunch of their small force down to Kherson when Ukraine was signaling they would attack there and then actually launched a counteroffensive in Kharkiv.)

The problem for Putin is that without the pseudo-referendums being held today about Russian territory (which no one will recognize internationally) you can't really argue for this kind of mobilization without the justification that Russia itself is under attack. This nuclear threat is also not serious, as doing so would further destabilize the effort to undermine Western political resolve for Ukraine. At this point regardless of whether all these conscripts become cannon fodder (and it seems like in actuality the Russians are trying to call up almost a million conscripts not 300,000 like they have been saying), Putin is trying to have enough to hold the lines no matter the casualties while the winter without gas bites European countries in an attempt to destroy the unity of NATO. If NATO does not break after the winter, then the political situation is going to become so untenable in Russia by the spring that a coup/revolution cannot be ruled out.

This doesn't even begin to also address the problems of actually supplying these 1 million conscripts which they are going to fail to do as Ukraine is working to make their logistic situation in the occupied territories as difficult as possible before these recruits arrive. Which means expect to hear LOTS of stories of Russian conscripts starving/freezing to death over the winter. They better hope for a warm winter in Ukraine but cold in the rest of Europe. As this may ultimately decide whether Putin's astronomical gamble even has a chance at working.

Wouldn't be surprised if Russia loses nearly 100,000 men over the upcoming winter. Ukraine will just have to sit back harass them and let them collapse on themselves.