2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

[weatheriscool]

Andrea Salinas D 48%
Mike Erickson R 45%
Undecided 7%

Aug 10-14
Sample size 500

[caltrek]

Ten Observations About the 2022 Midterms
by Bob Burnett
September 10, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) Two-thirds of the way through 2022, the political situation is quite different than it appeared to be on January 1. Then, Democrats viewed the midterm elections with trepidation; now, they see them as an opportunity. Here are 10 reasons why the situation has changed.
1. Trump is (indirectly) on the ballot…
2. Democrats have a chance to keep control of Congress…
3. Democrats have …(a policy) agenda and the Republicans don't…
4. Many Republican candidates are terrible…
5. Abortion is a big issue…
6. The economy may not be the deciding issue…
7. The environment is an issue….
8. Democracy is on the ballot…
9. Democrats are (relatively) united; Republicans are not…
10. Elections are determined by turnout…

Each of these is briefly discussed in the article. Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/views/202 ... -midterms

caltrek’s comment: While I am very sympathetic to what the author of the above cited piece is trying to accomplish, I would caution that there is bias here. That bias might distort for the sake of optimism. For example, pundits have been making a big point about how the Republican candidates are terrible. Herschel Walker in Georgia is cited as an example. Latest result: the polls show Walker pulling slightly ahead of his opponent incumbent Raphael Warnock after trailing by a narrow margin.

What voters are looking for determines the “quality” of the candidates. A buffoon who backs positions they embrace may be preferable to a highly articulate and principled individual who champions causes with which they are not comfortable. There may also be the personality factor:

“Pundit: Candidate A is a fascist who will wreck the economy.

Some voters: Yes, but he is very charismatic and entertaining to watch, so I think I will vote for Candidate A. You guys have been calling people I like fascists for so long so that dog doesn’t hunt for me anymore.”

[caltrek]

[weatheriscool]

Democrat Katie Hobbs says no to Arizona governor debate
Source: Associated Press

PHOENIX (AP) — Democrat Katie Hobbs’ campaign announced Sunday that she would not debate Republican Kari Lake as the two battle for the Arizona governor’s office, calling off any negotiations with Lake and the state commission overseeing debates.

The decision came after more than a week of efforts by Hobbs, currently secretary of state, to change the debate into separate half-hour interviews with the moderator. The Citizens Clean Elections Commission, which has held debates for two decades featuring candidates for statewide and legislative offices, flatly rejected that proposal on Thursday.

Instead, the commission urged its staff to work with Hobbs to come up with minor changes to the debate and gave her a week to come to an agreement. Hobbs’ campaign manager’s statements to the commissioners made it seem unlikely that a deal could be reached.

Nicole DeMont instead repeated the campaign’s concerns that debating Lake would “just create another spectacle, like we saw in the GOP primary debate. But on top of that, I would just add, you can’t debate a conspiracy theorist and at the last debate, she brought the conversation back to the 2020 election no less than a dozen times.”

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... e7083443b5

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
20h
2024 Arizona General Election Poll:

Trump 44% (+3)
Biden 41%

@EmersonPolling
~ 627 LV ~ 9/6-9/7
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/arizona-2022-m

[weatheriscool]

He's at least partly right! I am sorry but cutting up a 30 week baby is murder. You can disagree but that doesn't charge reality. Sorry but someone doesn't have the freedom to KILL. Now I won't go to his extreme but 12-20 weeks maximum should be the limit to get an abortion and birth control like the morning after pill should also be on the market.

[weatheriscool]

New York Governor:

Hochul (D-inc) 49% (+6)
Zeldin (R) 43%

.@coefficientpoll
, 1,094 LV, 9/5-7

[Cyber_Rebel]

He's at least partly right! I am sorry but cutting up a 30 week baby is murder. You can disagree but that doesn't charge reality. Sorry but someone doesn't have the freedom to KILL. Now I won't go to his extreme but 12-20 weeks maximum should be the limit to get an abortion and birth control like the morning after pill should also be on the market.

Yes, let us condemn the rights of half the population for a prodedure (second trimester) which occurs at literally around a single percent, because that makes total logical sense.

Also, alot of these clowns wish to also ban contraceptives. Really don't get how anyone takes them seriously, but I guess "reality" must vary from person to person in this wonderful country. Truly, the party of Freedumb.

[caltrek]

In a Suffolk Poll, Democrat Tim Ryan Leads Republican JD Vance In Key U.S. Senate Race In Ohio by One Point
by Haley BeMiller
September 13 , 2022

Introduction:

(USA Today) With less than two months to go before Election Day, Ohio's closely watched U.S. Senate race is far from settled.

A USA TODAY Network Ohio/Suffolk University poll released Monday showed J.D. Vance and U.S. Rep. Tim Ryan virtually tied in the race to replace retiring GOP Sen. Rob Portman. The Democratic congressman maintained a small lead with 46.6% compared to 45.6% of voters who planned to support Vance.

Roughly 6% of voters were undecided.

The result was within the poll's margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points, suggesting the seat remains up for grabs at this point in the game. It also mirrored other independent surveys conducted in recent weeks that point to a competitive race heading into peak campaign season.
Pollsters surveyed 500 likely Ohio voters between Sept. 5 and Sept. 7.

Read more here: https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/po ... 58540002/

[wjfox]

Tuesday was another bad day for Senate Republicans' 2022 chances

Updated 1444 GMT (2244 HKT) September 14, 2022

Don Bolduc, who put election denialism at the center of his campaign, defeated establishment favorite Chuck Morse in New Hampshire's GOP Senate primary, the latest in a series of blows to Republicans' hopes of winning back the majority in the chamber this fall.

Bolduc now joins the likes of Herschel Walker in Georgia, J.D. Vance in Ohio, Mehmet Oz in Pennsylvania and Blake Masters in Arizona as Republican candidates who ran -- and won -- primary campaigns by aligning themselves with the coalition built by former President Donald Trump but who appear to have much work to do when it comes to courting a general election audience. (Sidebar: Trump did not endorse Bolduc -- or any other candidate -- in the New Hampshire primary.)

https://edition.cnn.com/2022/09/14/poli ... index.html

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Leavitt Upsets Mowers, Winning New Hampshire House G.O.P. Primary
Source: NY Times

By Annie Karni

Karoline Leavitt, a 25-year-old hard-right Republican who served as an assistant in President Donald J. Trump’s White House press office, won her party’s nomination on Tuesday for New Hampshire’s First Congressional District, according to The Associated Press.

The race had devolved into a nasty battle with Matt Mowers, a former Trump administration colleague, over who carried the mantle of Trumpism.

“Unfortunately, tonight’s results did not go our way,” Mr. Mowers wrote in a concession statement on Twitter at 11:25 p.m.

Ms. Leavitt’s upset victory means she will face off in November against Representative Chris Pappas, a two-term Democratic congressman representing the highly competitive district in the eastern and southern parts of the state. Mr. Pappas is one of the most vulnerable Democrats this cycle, with his re-election race considered a tossup.



If she wins in November, Karoline Leavitt could be the youngest person elected to Congress.Credit...Brian Snyder/Reuters

Read more: https://www.nytimes.com/2022/09/13/us/p ... imary.html

[weatheriscool]

Moore Concedes to Bolduc in New Hampshire Senate Race, Realizing G.O.P. Fears
Source: New York Times

Don Bolduc, a retired Army general and 2020 election denier, appears to have captured the Republican nomination for Senate in New Hampshire after his chief rival conceded early Wednesday.

The Associated Press has not yet called the race. As of 10 a.m. Eastern, Mr. Bolduc held a lead of about 1,300 votes over Chuck Morse, the president of the State Senate.

Mr. Morse was endorsed by Gov. Chris Sununu and helped by $4.5 million from national Republicans, who were worried that a victory by Mr. Bolduc would forfeit what they saw as a winnable seat in the quest for Senate control this fall.

Mr. Bolduc’s apparent victory will come as a relief to Democrats, who also assume he will be the weaker opponent against Senator Maggie Hassan, a first-term Democrat. She won in 2016 by about 1,000 votes in purple New Hampshire but has been saddled with low job approval numbers. Four states — New Hampshire, Arizona, Georgia and Nevada — have vulnerable Democratic senators the party is aggressively defending to keep its hold on the Senate.

Read more: https://www.msn.com/en-us/news/politics ... r-AA11P1W6

[caltrek]

Georgia GOP Senate Hopeful Herschel Walker Says He's All In on Federal Abortion Ban
by Brett Wilkins
September 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) GOP U.S. Senate hopeful Herschel Walker on Wednesday reaffirmed his support for a national abortion ban, saying that he would vote for the policy if elected in November and if Republicans regain control of the upper chamber.

In a statement reported by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Walker—the Heisman Trophy-winning former NFL superstar—called himself "a proud pro-life Christian" who "will always stand up for our unborn children."

Responding to Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) introduction Tuesday of a national 15-week abortion ban, Walker said that "I believe the issue should be decided at the state level, but I would support this policy."

It wasn't the first time Walker—who does not back exceptions in cases of rape, incest, or even to save the pregnant person's life—voiced support for a national abortion ban. In July, he told reporters that "there's not a national ban on abortion right now and I think that's a problem."

Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, and his campaign seized upon Walker's comments to draw a stark contrast between the candidates.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... rtion-ban

[caltrek]

“States' Rights” Advocate Marco Rubio Announces Co-sponsorship of Lindsey Graham's Federal Abortion Ban
by Brandon Gage
September 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Alternet) United States Senator Marco Rubio (R-Florida) announced on Wednesday afternoon that he has become a co-sponsor of a national abortion ban that was first proposed by Senator Lindsey Graham (R-South Carolina) on Tuesday.

The legislation would outlaw the procedure after 15 weeks with limited exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother.

Less than three weeks ago, Rubio told CBS News Miami's Jim DeFede that he believes that abortion should be regulated by the states.

“[A]ll the Supreme Court said is that now that debate is not going to happen in Washington — where it wasn’t happening at all because of Roe v. Wade — now that decision has to be made at the state level.... Every state will have its own [law]," Rubio said as noted by MSNBC's Steve Benen on Wednesday.

"Well, I think that right now this issue is appropriately before the states," Rubio added. "That’s where it should’ve always been; that’s where it is now; and I think that’s where it’ll be for the foreseeable future.... Frankly, I think this issue is better decided at the state level."

Read more here: https://www.alternet.org/2022/09/marco ... tion-ban/

caltrek's comment: At least the legislation would havve "limited exceptions for rape, incest, and the life of the mother." Stil, I doubt that will satisfy pro-choice advocates and voters so-inclined.

[caltrek]

The Case for Democratic Optimism — and Pessimism — in the Midterms
by Andrew Prokop
September 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox) The hopes have been building among Democrats. What if — maybe, just maybe — this year’s midterm elections won’t be so bad for their party after all?

The weight of history, polling numbers, and last November’s election results all seemed to spell doom for Biden’s party in the midterms. But in recent months — particularly since the Supreme Court’s Dobbs decision eliminating federal abortion rights protections — there’s been a shift.

Recent special elections have been encouraging for Democrats, most recently with their pickup of Alaska’s House seat. The lead in generic ballot polling that Republicans had all year vanished last month, and current polling averages show about a tie. And if Democrats win all the Senate races where they’re currently leading polls, they’d retain control of the chamber (though some of those leads are quite small, and some states haven’t been polled very often).

It’s important to keep things in perspective. Polls are not showing a blue wave — instead, they suggest Democrats are underdogs to retain the House and that the Senate could go either way (FiveThirtyEight’s forecast gives the GOP about a one-in-three chance of winning it). Current indicators now seem to point to a close midterm contest rather than a blowout defeat of the type suffered by Donald Trump’s GOP in 2018, Barack Obama’s Democrats in 2014 and 2010, and George W. Bush’s GOP in 2006.

But is this a true change in the political winds — or will Republicans end up with a solid victory in the end after all?

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/authors/andrew-prokop

[caltrek]

Winners and Loser from the Last Big 2022 Primaries
by Ben Jacobs
September 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox ) The primary season, which began with the death rattle of the Bush political dynasty in Texas, ended with President Joe Biden jetting back to Wilmington on Air Force One to cast his ballot less than an hour before polls closed.

Yet while Biden was voting in a relatively uneventful election in Delaware (the most interesting race on the ballot featured an incumbent state auditor who had recently been found guilty of corruption and consequently lost 70-30), results were already being tabulated to the north, in New Hampshire primaries that could determine control of Congress in November and the shape of politics on Capitol Hill afterward.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/policy-and-politic ... de-island

Winners profiled are:
1. Republican Don Bolduc in New Hampshire (pro-Trump. See also top of this page and third story on this page).
2. Republican Robert Burns in New Hampshire (ultra-conservative). It is likely that Democrats will hold on to this Congressional district in November.
3. Republican Karoline Leavitt in New Hampshire, who made false claims about the 2020 election. (See also second story on top of this page).
4. Democrat Governor Dan McKee in Rhode Island won the nomination to continue in his current office.

caltrek’s comment: Democrats continued the high-risk strategy of pushing Republican extremists so as to secure easier victories in November.

[caltrek]

Schumer Warns Democrats They Will Lose House Majority
by Noah Bressner
September 15, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) The House will lose its Democratic majority in the midterms, Majority Leader Chuck Schumer told fellow senators earlier this week, contradicting recent comments from Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Punchbowl News reports.

Why it matters: The bearish warning come as Democrats had regained some hope of maintaining their majorities after a recent slate of good news for the Biden administration — including falling gas prices and a big legislative win.

• And early Thursday morning, the White House announced a deal to avoid a major rail strike that would have put the economy on the brink.
Driving the news: Schumer privately told senators at a dinner near Capitol Hill that Pelosi is "in danger" and Democrats will lose their majority in the House after the midterms, per the outlet.
• The dinner was attended by Sens. Chris Coons (Del.), Mark Kelly (Ariz.), Chris Van Hollen (Md.), Tom Carper (Del.), John Hickenlooper (Colo.) and Dick Durbin (Ill.).
• Pelosi has predicted in recent days that Democrats would add to their House majority.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/09/15/schum ... -midterms

caltrek’s comment: Democrats cannot afford to be complacent. So, if this energizes the vote great. If this affects morale and leads to fatalism and lack of voter participation – not so good.

[caltrek]

Arizona’s Latino Voters and Political Independents Could Spell Midterm Defeats for MAGA Candidates
by Gina Serignese Woodall
September 12, 2022

Introduction:

(The Conversation) Two years after the 2020 presidential election, Donald Trump’s resentment over losing continues to energize his supporters in Arizona.

That resentment played out during the Aug. 13, 2022, Republican primaries that saw Trump-endorsed candidates for U.S. Senate, governor, secretary of state and state attorney general sweep the GOP ticket.

While each of the candidates made Trump’s false claims that he won the presidential contest a central part of their campaigns, it’s unclear whether that message will resonate among Arizona’s increasingly diverse registered voters in the general election on Nov. 8, 2022.

Conclusion:

The Democrats are focusing on get-out-the-vote efforts, particularly among young Latinos, and painting the Trump-endorsed candidates as too extreme for Arizonans.

Given the changing demographics in Arizona, that strategy may appeal to not only independent voters but also mainstream Republicans disillusioned with the extreme wing of their party.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/arizonas-l ... es-188512

[weatheriscool]

Georgia GOP Senate Hopeful Herschel Walker Says He's All In on Federal Abortion Ban
by Brett Wilkins
September 14, 2022

Introduction:

(Common Dreams) GOP U.S. Senate hopeful Herschel Walker on Wednesday reaffirmed his support for a national abortion ban, saying that he would vote for the policy if elected in November and if Republicans regain control of the upper chamber.

In a statement reported by The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Walker—the Heisman Trophy-winning former NFL superstar—called himself "a proud pro-life Christian" who "will always stand up for our unborn children."

Responding to Sen. Lindsey Graham's (R-S.C.) introduction Tuesday of a national 15-week abortion ban, Walker said that "I believe the issue should be decided at the state level, but I would support this policy."

It wasn't the first time Walker—who does not back exceptions in cases of rape, incest, or even to save the pregnant person's life—voiced support for a national abortion ban. In July, he told reporters that "there's not a national ban on abortion right now and I think that's a problem."

Sen. Raphael Warnock, the Democratic incumbent, and his campaign seized upon Walker's comments to draw a stark contrast between the candidates.

Read more here: https://www.commondreams.org/news/2022 ... rtion-ban

I aint for a total ban as that is a little extreme. I mean there should be exceptions for rape and incest and maybe the limit should be 20 weeks outside of that. This sadly is probably going to hurt the republican party this election as the vast majority of this society probably thinks it is also insane.