2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
Aug 27
Missouri Senate:

Schmitt (R) 51% (+11)
Valentine (D) 40%
Dine (L) 1%
Venable (C) 1%

Remington Research/@missouriscout
, 1,011 LV, 8/24-25
https://moscout.com/s/new-moscout-

[peekpok]

It is hard to believe but this country is probably going to keep things about how it is right now in the next election. Maybe a seat or two change in the house and hardly anything in the senate.

There are still two months left until the actual elections, which is an eternity with the pace of 2022's lightning fast media environment and cultural development. That said, the repeal of Roe v Wade seems to have cost the Republicans a very large amount of political capital and goodwill among the general population. Furthermore the Republican party is currently locked into a death spiral of its candidates needing to move ever-rightward. They are forced to outdo one-another to appease the increasingly radicalized base, otherwise they don't have a chance to make it through their primaries. But this is counter-productive when it comes to general elections, because average Americans are getting fed-up with Trump-style politics. The constant rage, insults, book bans, litigations and attempts to strong-arm elections in their own favor. The longer this kind of thing goes on the more alienating it becomes. The field of Republican candidates in 2022 is looking more hideous than ever to moderates.

Meanwhile the price of gas has stabilized and even decreased slightly. The inflation panic mostly seems to have ended, for now. Biden is forgiving a fairly notable chunk of student debt which is a huge win for millenials and gen z voters. At this point its the Democrats election to lose, so the big question for me is what events can happen in the next two months that will hurt the incumbent political order?

[weatheriscool]

Arizona Senate:

Mark Kelly (D-inc) 48% (+4)
Blake Masters (R) 44%
Marc Victor (L) 4%

.@trafalgar_group
, 1,074 LV, 8/24-27
https://thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/upl

[weatheriscool]

Ohio Senate:

Tim Ryan (D) 50% (+3)
J.D. Vance (R) 47%

Impact Research/@TimRyan
(D) Internal, 800 LV, 8/17-23

[caltrek]

Well, I definitely don't like this news: a recent Trafalgar Group poll shows that in the Georgia U.S. Senate race Republican Herschel Walker leads Democrat Raphael Warnock 48% to 47% while an Emerson poll has Walker leading 46% to 44%. Earlier results from other pollsters had shown Warnock with a slight lead.

At least in Pennsylvania, Democrat John K. Fetterman is leading Republican Mehmet Oz 49% to 44%.

Source for Georgia: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 7329.html

Source for Pennsylvania: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epoll ... 7695.html

[weatheriscool]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Aug. 28-30, 1500 adults including 1342 RV


RV:

Approve 43 (+1)
Disapprove 51 (-1)

Strongly approve 19 (+2)
Strongly disapprove 40 (+1)

GCB (RV only): D 46 (+2), R 38 (-1)

[weatheriscool]

Fetterman won't participate in early-September debate with Oz
Source: The Hill

Pennsylvania Democratic Senate candidate John Fetterman said Tuesday he won’t participate in a debate against his Republican opponent Mehmet Oz during the first week of September, citing his ongoing recovery from a recent stroke.

Fetterman in his announcement also called out Oz’s campaign over a mocking statement it released earlier that day in which it listed several “concessions” it would make if the Democrat agreed to a debate. Among them was payment for “additional medical personnel [Fetterman] might need to have on standby.”

The Democrat blasted Oz and his campaign over the statement, accusing them of making it “abundantly clear that they think it is funny to mock a stroke survivor.” Fetterman said he “chose not to participate in this farce.”

“I will not be participating in a debate the first week of September, but look forward to having a productive discussion about how we can move forward and have a real conversation on this once Dr. Oz and his team are ready to take this seriously,” he added.

Read more: https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/3 ... e-with-oz/

[weatheriscool]

Crist to resign from Congress as race for Florida governor heats up
Source: CNN Politics

(CNN) A week after winning the Democratic primary for Florida governor, Rep. Charlie Crist will resign from his seat in the US House effective at the end of Wednesday, his campaign confirmed. Resigning from Congress frees up Crist to focus on his race against Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis. In 2018, DeSantis also resigned his House seat shortly after securing the GOP nomination.

The departure of Crist further narrows the Democratic majority in the House to 219 to 211, with five seats becoming vacant. Crist was first elected to represent Florida's 13th District, including his hometown of St. Petersburg, in 2016 after a bruising and expensive race against then-Rep. David Jolly, a Republican. He was re-elected in 2018 and 2020 with strong majorities.

Crist's time in the US House marked ​a return to elected office for the long-time Florida politician after losing statewide races for US Senate in 2010 as an Independent and for governor as a Democrat in 2014. He previously served as a Republican state lawmaker, attorney general and governor.

Crist announced in May 2021 that he would forgo a campaign for a fourth term and would instead set his sights on a return to the governor's mansion. At the time, Crist seemed to be giving up a safely Democratic seat, but the 13th District was dramatically changed during the redistricting process into one that former President Donald Trump would have carried by 7 points in 2020.

Read more: https://www.cnn.com/2022/08/31/politics ... -congress/

[caltrek]

2022 Generic Congressional Vote......Economist/YouGov...........Republicans 38, Democrats 46...Democrats +8
2022 Generic Congressional Vote......Quinnipiac....................Republicans 43, Democrats 47...Democrats +4
2022 Generic Congressional Vote......Politico/Morning Consult...Republicans 42, Democrats 47...Democrats +5

Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

Edit: Unfortunately, a day later this was reported:

2022 Generic Congressional Vote.....Trafalgar Group (R).........Republicans 47, Democrats 41.... Republicans +6

Worse yet, Trafalgar has a habit of being more accurate, with other pollsters typically more prone to be too optimistic in their projections of Democratic margins of victory.

[caltrek]

Democrat Mary Peltola Wins Upset In Alaska Special Election
August 31, 2022

Extract::

(Axios) Democrat Mary Peltola on Wednesday won the special election to represent Alaska's lone U.S. House seat, per the Alaska Division of Elections.

Why it matters: Peltola's victory is a major upset in a state that voted for former President Trump by 10 points in 2020, and it makes her the first Native Alaskan elected to Congress...

How it happened: Peltola advanced to the general election in the top-four blanket primary in June along with Palin and businessman Nick Begich, a more mainstream Republican.
• Independent Al Gross, a surgeon and 2020 U.S. Senate candidate, dropped out of the race shortly after advancing in the primary and endorsed Peltola.
• The general election, which was ranked-choice, saw Peltola hold a commanding 9-point lead over Palin in first-preference votes. She ultimately won with 52% to Palin's 49%.
• While half of Begich's votes went to Palin in the second round, nearly 30% went to Peltola and another 21% ranked neither candidate as their second choic

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/09/01/democ ... -election

[caltrek]

More on the Alaska race:

Alaska Just Elected Its First Native Representative
August 31, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Representative-elect Mary Peltola just made history. With a 51-49 upset victory over ex-governor Sarah Palin, confirmed Wednesday by the state’s Division of Elections, Peltola has won Alaska’s sole seat in the House of Representatives—making the former state legislator and fisheries manager the first Alaska Native person elected to Congress. She succeeds longtime GOP Rep. Don Young, a family friend whose death in office earlier this year triggered a special election. In March, when Young died, Peltola was a fairly obscure ex-politician vying with more than 50 challengers to finish his term. By August, polls pegged her as a clear favorite over the Trump-endorsed Palin, whose celebrity kept her at the top of early polls.

Peltola’s win was more than one kind of first. She also becomes the first Alaskan to win a ranked-choice election, a system that sends votes to second-choice candidates when voters’ favorites are knocked out. She joins a tiny club: Alaska is just the second state to adopt the system, which supporters call a “bulwark against extremism,” and this race was the state’s first to use it.

That change came into play when prominent independent Al Gross withdrew from the race unexpectedly—after landing one of four spots in the general election. Gross, Democrats’ favorite in Alaska’s 2020 Senate race, wouldn’t commit to caucusing with the Democratic Party. But his largely centrist voters broke for Peltola, and his withdrawal left a lopsided ballot, splitting conservative voters between two Republican candidates.

Peltola’s biggest challenge might have been Palin’s unmatched celebrity. Although Palin hasn’t held office in Alaska since 2009, when she abruptly resigned her governorship, she’s still Alaska’s best-known politician on the national stage. And Palin’s been a vocal player in the Trump movement, winning the ex-president’s consistent backing—Trump went as far as campaigning for her hours after the FBI’s August raid of his Mar-a-Lago home.
Alaskans, in any case, were keen to participate. State officials announced that they’d counted nearly 200,000 ballots in the open primary, the third-highest primary turnout in state history.

The article goes on to note that Senator Lisa Murkowski is defending her U.S. Senate seat against Trump backed fellow Republican Kelly Tshibaka. It also further discusses Peltola’s background.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... entative/

[weatheriscool]

Pennsylvania Senate:

Fetterman (D) 49% (+5)
Oz (R) 44%

.@SusquehannaPR
, 718 LV, 8/22-29
https://realclearpolitics.com/docs/2022/Topl

[weatheriscool]

Georgia Senate:
Walker (R) 48% (+1)
Warnock (D-inc) 47%
Oliver (L) 3%
.
Georgia Governor:
Kemp (R-inc) 51% (+7)
Abrams (D) 44%
Hazel (L) 2%

.@trafalgar_group
, 1,079, 8/24-27
https://thetrafalgargroup.org/wp-content/upl

[weatheriscool]

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
Aug 30
Florida Senate:

Marco Rubio (R-Inc) 49%
Val Demings (D) 46%

Impact Research/@DemGovs
, 800 LV, 8/12-18

[weatheriscool]

2024 Georgia General Election Poll:

Trump 51% (+5)
Biden 46%

@EmersonPolling
~ 600 LV ~ 8/28-8/29
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/georgia-2022-w

[weatheriscool]

2024 National General Election Poll:

Biden 50% (+6)
Trump 44%

@WSJ
~ 1,313 RV ~ 8/17-8/25
https://wsj.com/articles/democ

[weatheriscool]

The Economist/YouGov weekly tracker, Sep. 3-6, 1500 adults including 1337 RV


GCB (RV only): D 44 (-2), R 38 (nc)

[weatheriscool]

Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Demings Susquehanna Rubio 47, Demings 44 Rubio +3
Florida Senate - Rubio vs. Demings Fabrizio/Anzalone Rubio 49, Demings 47 Rubio +2
Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Crist Susquehanna DeSantis 47, Crist 43 DeSantis +4
Florida Governor - DeSantis vs. Crist Fabrizio/Anzalone DeSantis 50, Crist 47 DeSantis +3
Washington Senate - Smiley vs. Murray PPP (D) Murray 48, Smiley 39 Murray +9
Michigan Governor - Dixon vs. Whitmer Detroit News/WDIV-TV Whitmer 48, Dixon 35 Whitmer +13
Texas Governor - Abbott vs. O'Rourke University of Houston* Abbott 49, O'Rourke 42 Abbott +7

[caltrek]

Republicans Are Desperately Trying to Change Their Tune on Abortion
by Abigail Weinberg
September 8, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) In the months following the overturning of Roe v. Wade, popular support for abortion has energized Democrats—especially women—and cut into Republicans’ polling leads ahead of the midterms.

The latest Pew polling shows that 62 percent of Americans think that abortion should be legal in all or most circumstances. Gallup polling from May found that 35 percent of Americans supported abortion under any circumstances, and 50 percent supported it only under certain circumstances. Last month’s referendum on abortion rights in Kansas is a strong indicator that restricting abortion access is a losing issue.

Predictably, a handful of Republicans running for office are now walking back their anti-abortion stances. Here are a few.

Blake Masters

Blake Masters, the Peter Thiel protégé who is running to unseat Democratic Sen. Mark Kelly in Arizona has significantly altered his public pose.
As NBC News has reported, Masters’ campaign website once said, “I am 100% pro-life” and outlined his support for “a federal personhood law (ideally a Constitutional amendment) that recognizes that unborn babies are human beings that may not be killed.” Now, the bullet point that said “PROTECT BABIES, DON’T LET THEM BE KILLED” has been removed from his policy page. (Don’t worry, the Wayback Machine archived it.)

The article also goes on to discuss Tim Walz, who is the Minnesota GOP candidate for governor,, and U.S. Senate candidate in Colorado Joe O'Dea.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... d-stance/

[weatheriscool]

Arizona Senate - Masters vs. Kelly Emerson Kelly 47, Masters 45 Kelly +2
Arizona Senate - Masters vs. Kelly FOX 10/InsiderAdvantage* Kelly 45, Masters 39 Kelly +6
Arizona Governor - Lake vs. Hobbs Emerson Hobbs 46, Lake 46 Tie
Arizona Governor - Lake vs. Hobbs FOX 10/InsiderAdvantage* Hobbs 44, Lake 43 Hobbs +1
New York Governor - Zeldin vs. Hochul The Hill/Emerson Hochul 50, Zeldin 35 Hochul +15
Vermont Senate - Malloy vs. Welch Trafalgar Group (R) Welch 50, Malloy 43 Welch +7
Vermont Governor - Scott vs. Siegel Trafalgar Group (R) Scott 68, Siegel 15 Scott +53