New predictions for the timeline

[wjfox]

Ice core studies have revealed that about 8,000 years ago, during the last post-glacial climatic optimum, there was a period of about a decade when temperatures rose by 7-8 degrees C.

I don't think that's true. At least, not globally.

[wjfox]

2033 – Return of Mars samples to Earth

https://www.nasa.gov/press-release/nasa ... th-in-2033

[wjfox]

2035 – World GDP exceeds $200 trillion

https://fortune.com/longform/global-gdp ... nomy-2030/

[wjfox]

Interesting study on battery-powered container shipping.

https://pv-magazine-usa.com/2022/08/22/ ... the-water/
https://www.nature.com/articles/s41560-022-01065-y

It suggests that 40% of container vessels worldwide could be electrified “cost-effectively and with current technology,” by the end of this decade.

I could possibly extrapolate this to >50% (i.e. the majority), which I guess would occur by 2031-32.

[funkervogt]

In this scenario, the battery volume is less than that of the existing ICE mechanical space at voyage lengths less than 1,300–2,000 km. The impacts of the battery system volume on TEU forfeiture decreases as ship capacity increases, reflecting innovations in ultra-large containership design that optimize carrying capacity and energy consumption better than feeder ships. b, The results with a battery energy density of 1,200 Wh l−1. In this near-future scenario, the net change in carrying capacity is positive for voyages of up to 2,000–5,000 km, depending on ship type.

[funkervogt]

Proposed prediction for the 2070s: The first healthy baby conceived synthetic human embryo (or "embryoid") is born. The event is as significant as the birth of the first "Test Tube Baby" 100 years earlier, as it allows single people to conceive children regardless of their own natural fertility status, and without need of a partner's DNA. It also inaugurates an era of unauthorized human cloning, where DNA samples of unwitting third parties are collected and then traded on black markets.

https://apnews.com/article/synthetic-mo ... 8a847d75bf

[wjfox]

Proposed prediction for the 2070s: The first healthy baby conceived synthetic human embryo (or "embryoid") is born. The event is as significant as the birth of the first "Test Tube Baby" 100 years earlier, as it allows single people to conceive children regardless of their own natural fertility status, and without need of a partner's DNA. It also inaugurates an era of unauthorized human cloning, where DNA samples of unwitting third parties are collected and then traded on black markets.

https://apnews.com/article/synthetic-mo ... 8a847d75bf

Cool breakthrough, but how did you decide on 2070?

The reference just says "In the future, similar experiments will be done with human cells and that, at some point, will yield similar results."

I need a quote that's a little more specific, or at least provides some hint, e.g. "50 years from now", or "several decades from now", or "towards the end of this century."

[wjfox]

2039 - The Large Ultraviolet Optical Infrared Surveyor (LUVOIR) is launched

Two earlier predictions on the timeline, the ATLAST and HDST projects, will need deleting and merging into this one.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Large_Ult ... d_Surveyor

[wjfox]

I'm currently working on a prediction for the Hoover Dam, which is expected to become inoperable by ~2033 due to Lake Mead's rapid decline.

Las Vegas will be spared from the water shortages that were predicted before, due to a new intake pump at a lower depth, but this won't be a solution in the longer term.

Another water source to the north-east – Lake Powell – is facing even greater decline. I may include a mention of this in the prediction.

[wjfox]

Some very useful trends/data on renewables here:

https://www.cell.com/joule/fulltext/S25 ... 22)00410-X

[wjfox]

A reader sent me this –

Hey Will, I recently learned about Flood basalt formations occurring from massive volcanic eruptions and I think the next one should be included in the future timeline. I know you have included the next supervolcanic eruption at 900,000 AD and mentioned "potential future technologies developed by humanity (or its descendants) by then, such as the ability to control tectonic plates and the underlying mantle." so I think would make sense to include that in the next 10-50 million years we could see a case of the kind of eruption which has been linked to prior mass extinctions. I think it would make sense for this to be included in the future timeline with a range the same way you have mentioned that for 30 to 40 million years in the future at some point during this period, an asteroid 10-20 km in size comes on a direct collision course with Earth. The median interval calculated for the flood basalt eruptions is 23 million years apart (11 eruptions in the past 250 million years). The Earth could even experience two of this type of eruption during this time frame. To put this in perspective: a Flood basalt eruption caused the End-Permian Extinction which is the Earth's most severe known extinction event. Thanks.

[wjfox]

Maybe worth updating our Christianity predictions for the U.S.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/christiani ... -research/

[wjfox]

Late 2030s/early 2040s - NASA's current timeline for crewed missions to Mars:

[wjfox]

2024 - Recreational cannabis is legalised in Germany

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-63404181

[wjfox]

2,000,000 AD – Earth is in danger of cometary impacts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholz%27s_Star

[wjfox]

This article has a long-term projection of global GDP growth, suggesting a slowdown later this century.

A bit dated (Jan 2015), but some interesting stuff nevertheless. I'll try to find better/more recent references alongside this.

https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insig ... h-be-saved

[wjfox]

At some point, I'd like to do a long-term forecast on the automation of construction. Maybe something in our Data & Trends section first, then a prediction or two on the timeline.

Couple of references I could use and extrapolate from:

Size of the global construction market in 2021, with forecasts from 2021 to 2030
https://www.statista.com/statistics/129 ... forecasts/

3D Printing Construction Market Size, 2022-2030
https://www.researchandmarkets.com/repo ... =chdo54prd

[Jakob]

2,000,000 AD – Earth is in danger of cometary impacts


https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Scholz%27s_Star

In 2 million years there either won't be humans, or humans will be advanced enough to shrug off anything short of a big-G God deciding to end reality. So nothing to worry about.

[wjfox]

2023 - The Aurora supercomputer is deployed

Will be 2 exaFLOPS, nearly twice the speed of Frontier, and the second exascale machine in the U.S.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Aurora_(supercomputer)

[wjfox]

The driverless hover-taxis in Dubai prediction will need moving to 2026:

https://www.timeoutabudhabi.com/news/du ... oming-soon

Edit: In fact it's unclear if these will be autonomous.