2022 midterm election thread

[weatheriscool]

DeSantis not asking Trump for endorsement: report
Source: Orlando Sentinel

Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis is not asking former President Donald Trump for an endorsement for the 2022 gubernatorial race, according to a report in Politico.

Citing four unnamed sources close to both the governor and Trump, no ask has been made, and there are no plans to.

DeSantis rode a Trump endorsement in 2018 to a GOP primary win over Adam Putnam, and then a narrow win over Democrat Andrew Gillum.

For 2022, DeSantis is likely to face either former governor, now Rep. Charlie Crist or Agriculture Secretary Nikki Fried, who are running for this year’s Democrat primary.

Read more: https://www.orlandosentinel.com/politic ... story.html

[caltrek]

The following is an interesting political advertisement. Apologies to W J Fox for the lack of advertising revenue from Ms Demings for this site.

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
8h
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Republicans 48% (+4)
Democrats 44%

McLaughlin & Associates ~ 1,000 LV ~ 6/17-6/22
https://mclaughlinonline.com/pols/wp-conten

[weatheriscool]

2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Republicans 48% (+8)
Democrats 40%

@Rasmussen_Poll
~ 2,500 LV ~ 6/19-6/23
https://rasmussenreports.com/public_content

It is going to be a red wave from hell rolling across this land!!!

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
20h
2022 #PAGov General Election Poll:

Josh Shapiro (D) 48% (+3)
Doug Mastriano (R) 45%

@cygnal
~ 535 LV ~ 6/17-6/19
https://cygn.al/poll-shapiro-o

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
20h
2022 #PASen General Election Poll:

John Fetterman (D) 48% (+4)
Mehmet Oz (R) 44%

@cygnal
~ 535 LV ~ 6/17-6/19
https://cygn.al/poll-shapiro-o

[caltrek]

Democrat Representative Henry Cuellar Declared Winner in Texas Recount
June 22, 2022

Introduction:

AUSTIN, Texas (AP) — A recount in Texas affirmed Democrat U.S. Rep. Henry Cuellar as the winner Tuesday of his primary race against progressive challenger Jessica Cisneros, who had trailed by fewer than 200 votes following a runoff in May.

Cuellar, a nine-term congressman, defeated Cisneros by 289 votes, according to the results of the recount announced by the Texas Democratic Party.
The Associated Press had not previously declared a winner in the race because it had been too close to call.

It is the second time that Cisneros, a 29-year-old immigration attorney who once interned for Cuellar, has lost a challenge to her former boss, whose moderate record along Texas’ heavily Hispanic southern border has aligned him at times with Republicans on issues including abortion and guns.

This time Cisneros got even closer than in 2020, when she lost by 4 percentage points behind national support from the party’s progressive leaders, including Sens. Bernie Sanders of Vermont and Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts. They endorsed her again in the rematch along with abortion-rights groups that swooped into the race as the U.S. Supreme Court signaled it might overturn Roe v. Wade.

Read more here: https://www.latinorebels.com/2022/06/2 ... edwinner/

[caltrek]

Fall of Roe Could Sway Some Swing Voters to Democrats in November
by Kirk McDaniel, Michael McDaniel, and Andy Olesko
June 25, 2022

Introduction:

(Courthouse News) — Democrats face overwhelming odds heading into the November midterm elections. Inflation, compounded by rising gas and housing prices and low approval ratings plaguing Democratic legislators, suggest a comfortable path for Republicans to take back the U.S. House and win down the ballot. The GOP simply need not slip up.

That was before Friday, when the U.S. Supreme Court struck down the federal right to abortion, overruling its landmark Roe v. Wade precedent in a 6-3 split.

The decision in Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization now leaves it in the hands of the states to decide the legality of the medical procedure.
Abortion rights receive broad national support across the American electorate. In two polls from May, Gallup found that 85% believe abortion should be legal in all or some circumstances, with the Pew Research Center reporting 61%.

Experts in Arizona, Michigan and Texas are scratching their heads at the potential ramifications of the decision. The reversal of what was considered settled law could fuel conservative-leaning women towards more liberal candidates.

Valerie Hoekstra, a political science professor at Arizona State University and author of “Public Reaction to Supreme Court Decisions,” suggests the landmark ruling, largely made possible by three appointees of President Donald Trump, could disillusion voters.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/fall-o ... november/

caltrek's comment: If this does happen in the way that the article suggests, it will not be an automatic process. Rather, it will be because a lot of people become highly energized to move to support sensible candidates. To really make a difference, they would have to do so in red and purple states where I do not reside. Outside resources can also help, especially financial contributions. While there may be tenuous grounds for a solid prediction, one can at least hope.

[caltrek]

While generic Congressional poll matchups between Democrats and Republicans are looking bleak for Democrats, there is some good news in Senate races:

In Wisconsin, three of four potential Democratic candidates are shown leading Republican Senator Johnson by one or two points in a poll dated June 23, 2022.

In Utah, Independent McMullin leads potential Republican candidate Isom by ten points, but trails two other Republican possibilities by two points (Edwards) or six points (Lee).

In Pennsylvania, Democrat Fetterman leads Republican Oz by nine points in a poll dated June 15, 2022.

In North Carolina, Democrat Beasley leads Republican Budd by four points (44% versus 40%).

According to a June 14 poll, Georgia is a dead tie toss-up and is likely to be a nail biter right up until election day.

Source: https://www.realclearpolitics.com/epolls/latest_polls/

This is a highlight of results, as I have omitted states where there is no big surprise. Some states will still be a slam dunk for Republicans, but if the cited results hold up (along with a Democratic hold in Georgia) the Senate could easily tip to a more comfortable control by the Democrats.

[weatheriscool]

More than 1 million voters switch to GOP in warning for Dems
Source: AP

WASHINGTON (AP) — A political shift is beginning to take hold across the U.S. as tens of thousands of suburban swing voters who helped fuel the Democratic Party’s gains in recent years are becoming Republicans.

More than 1 million voters across 43 states have switched to the Republican Party over the last year, according to voter registration data analyzed by The Associated Press. The previously unreported number reflects a phenomenon that is playing out in virtually every region of the country — Democratic and Republican states along with cities and small towns — in the period since President Joe Biden replaced former President Donald Trump.

But nowhere is the shift more pronounced — and dangerous for Democrats — than in the suburbs, where well-educated swing voters who turned against Trump’s Republican Party in recent years appear to be swinging back. Over the last year, far more people are switching to the GOP across suburban counties from Denver to Atlanta and Pittsburgh and Cleveland. Republicans also gained ground in counties around medium-size cities such as Harrisburg, Pennsylvania; Raleigh, North Carolina; Augusta, Georgia; and Des Moines, Iowa.

Ben Smith, who lives in suburban Larimer County, Colorado, north of Denver, said he reluctantly registered as a Republican earlier in the year after becoming increasingly concerned about the Democrats’ support in some localities for mandatory COVID-19 vaccines, the party’s inability to quell violent crime and its frequent focus on racial justice.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... 45402be8b9

[weatheriscool]

2022 Generic Congressional Vote Trafalgar Group (R) Republicans 49, Democrats 40 Republicans +9
2022 Generic Congressional Vote NPR/PBS/Marist Republicans 41, Democrats 48 Democrats +7

This is insane difference between these polls. I believe it is closer to trafalar but more like +4. This is more inline with other polls I've seen.

[caltrek]

Democrats' Rocky Mountain MAGA Bet
by Hans Nichols
June 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) Colorado Democrats are about to learn the wisdom of spending $4 million to meddle in today's GOP Senate primary. Calling Ron Hanks a true conservative and questioning if Joe O’Dea is even a Republican may give them a weaker nominee to fight off — or it could strengthen the rival they feared.

Driving the news: Voters head to the polls Tuesday to pick candidates in Colorado, Illinois, New York, Oklahoma and Utah. Sen. Michael Bennet (D-Colo.) isn’t among the most vulnerable Democratic incumbents. But with inflation surging and President Biden’s approval ratings in the low 40s, party strategists worry how many incumbents could get wiped out in a wave election.

• Democrats would rather see Bennet face Hanks in November, so they've spent big to boost Hanks' chances with GOP primary voters.

• But if O'Dea wins, their efforts to highlight his past support of Democrats — and make him appear GOP-lite — might improve his chances against Bennet by inoculating him on issues like guns, partisan gridlock, and even abortion.

The big picture: Across the country, heavy spending by Democrats to drag (potentially) unelectable Republicans across the primary line has accelerated this cycle.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/28/democ ... -joe-odea

caltrek’s comment: Democrats spending to help extremists gain the nomination in the Republican party has got to be the dumbest tactic I have ever heard. You would think that they would have learned their lesson with Trump.

In fairness, sometimes this spending takes the form of advertising that a certain potential opponent is “too conservative” to represent a particular jurisdiction. This isn’t so bad as it is merely pointing out what should be obvious. Even with the cynical twist that they understand that a Democrat saying a candidate is “too conservative” is a way to give incentives to Republicans to vote for said candidate. At least in the general election they have got good grounds to say, “as we warned you in the primaries.”

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
6h
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Democrats 45% (+3)
Republicans 42%

@MorningConsult
/@Politico
~ 2,005 RV ~ 6/24-6/25
https://assets.morningconsult.com/wp-uploads/202

[weatheriscool]

Kathy Hochul is Democratic nominee for New York governor
Source: AP

NEW YORK (AP) — Kathy Hochul won the Democratic nomination for New York governor Tuesday, setting her on an expected path to win the governor’s office in November.

Hochul beat back primary challenges from New York City’s elected public advocate, Jumaane Williams, and U.S. Rep. Tom Suozzi, a moderate from Long Island.

Democrats have more than twice as many registered voters as Republicans in the state and are expected to keep the governor’s mansion this fall, which they’ve held since 2007.

Hochul has served as New York’s governor since August 2021, when then-Gov. Andrew Cuomo resigned amid a sexual harassment scandal.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/2022-midterm ... 1deb3ef1fb

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
9h
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Democrats 45% (+7)
Republicans 38%

@YouGovAmerica
/@YahooNews
~ 1,237 RV ~ 6/24-6/27
https://news.yahoo.com/poll-confidenc

[caltrek]

June 28 Primary Election Results
June 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Politico) House members from both parties were in peril in Tuesday’s primaries — with redistricting, perceived loyalty to Donald Trump and ideological and generational opposition all challenging the current order in Congress.

Rep. Steven Palazzo (R-Miss.), fell in his primary runoff after facing attacks on his congressional record and ethics questions. And two more members of Congress lost in a pair of primaries that pit incumbents against each other for the same seat.

Democratic Rep. Sean Casten defeated fellow Rep. Marie Newman in a primary for a Chicago-based district, while Republican Rep. Mary Miller capitalized on Trump’s endorsement and beat GOP Rep. Rodney Davis, who conceded Tuesday night, in a district along the state’s western border.
Those two losses were guaranteed Tuesday night due to redistricting-fueled contests. But a handful of Republicans who voted for a bipartisan Jan. 6 commission are also on the ballot, including Rep. Michael Guest (R-Miss.), who got dragged into a runoff — but won renomination Tuesday night — after failing to garner 50 percent of the vote in the initial primary earlier this month.

And 13-term Rep. Danny Davis (D-Ill.) narrowly defeated a progressive challenger in Chicago.

Read more here: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/ ... -00042972

(FiveThirtyEight) One of the big stories going into tonight, though, wasn’t former President Trump’s influence — it was just how much Democrats meddled in GOP races, elevating the candidacies of more extreme GOP candidates in the hopes that they’d be easier to defeat in the general election.

In the Illinois Republican gubernatorial primary, Democrats got their preferred candidate, as state Sen. Darren Bailey easily won. The thought was that Bailey, as the more conservative candidate in the race, would face a steep uphill battle against incumbent Democratic Gov. J.B. Pritzker, given Illinois’s blue hue. But Democrats might later regret having backed Bailey as much as they did.

In Colorado, meanwhile, this strategy didn’t pay off for Democrats. Neither state Rep. Ron Hanks in the GOP Senate primary nor businessman Greg Lopez in the GOP gubernatorial primary ultimately prevailed. Nor did Mesa County Clerk Tina Peters, who was arguably the highest-profile election denier running in Colorado. Peters was banned from managing the elections in her home county, but still sought the Republican nomination for secretary of state. (She lost handily to former Jefferson County Clerk Pam Anderson, who accepts the 2020 election result.)

On that note, some of the night’s biggest election deniers, like Peters, Hanks and Lopez, did not win their primaries, but by our count, 15 candidates who either denied or questioned the legitimacy of the 2020 election still won their Republican primaries tonight.

 The race was …(close)…in Illinois’s 11th District Republican primary, where former Trump administration official Catalina Lauf had about 29 percent of the vote, barely leading a crowded field of six total candidates, with about half of the vote in. The winner of the primary will aim to unseat the Democratic incumbent, Rep. Bill Foster.

Source: https://fivethirtyeight.com/live-blog/ ... ion-2022/

(CBS) In Colorado's 3rd House District, CBS News projected Rep. Lauren Boebert will win the Republican primary. Boebert, a controversial conservative freshman member of Congress, had former President Donald Trump's endorsement.
…
In Utah, two-term Republican Sen. Mike Lee, one of Trump's closest allies, beat two primary challengers, former state lawmaker Becky Edwards and businesswoman Ally Isom. Neither voted for Trump, according to The Associated Press. Lee will face independent conservative Evan McMullin in November. Utah's Democratic Party has thrown its support behind McMullin, a longtime Trump critic, rather than putting up candidate of its own.
…
Republican Mike Flood wins special election for House in Nebraska's 1st Congressional District. Flood will serve the remainder of Rep. Jeff Fortenberry's term. Fortenberry was sentenced Tuesday to two years of probation for lying to federal authorities about an illegal campaign contribution.

Source: https://www.cbsnews.com/live-updates/p ... 22-06-28/

[caltrek]

(CBS) In Colorado's 3rd House District, CBS News projected Rep. Lauren Boebert will win the Republican primary. Boebert, a controversial conservative freshman member of Congress, had former President Donald Trump's endorsement.

More on that:

It Looks Like Two More Years of Lauren Boebert in Congress

by Abigail Weinberg
June 29, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) Congresswoman Lauren Boebert, Colorado’s gun-toting representative, is likely to serve another term after winning her district’s Republican primary last night.

Boebert handily defeated challenger Don Coram, a moderate Republican with friends on both sides of the aisle in the state House but nowhere near Boebert’s name recognition. Her win comes despite seemingly endless controversy.

Earlier this year, former employees of Boebert’s Rifle, Colorado, restaurant told me that the congresswoman routinely failed to pay them on time. Colorado is set to investigate her over misuse of campaign funds. Her latest faux pas came this weekend when she declared, “I’m tired of this separation of church and state junk.”

But none of that is likely to keep Boebert out of Congress. Thanks to redistricting, her district leans even more strongly Republican this year than it did in 2020. Boebert will face off against Democrat Adam Frisch in the general election.

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/mojo-wire/ ... colorado/

[weatheriscool]

Political Polls
@Politics_Polls
·
Follow
#NHsen:
Hassan (D-inc) 49% (+9)
Bolduc (R) 40%
.
#GAsen
Warnock (D-inc) 48% (+4)
Walker (R) 44%
.
#NVsen:
Cortez Masto (D-inc) 46% (+3)
Laxalt (R) 43%
.
#AZsen:
Kelly (D-inc) 48% (+9)
Masters (R) 39%

Kelly (D-inc) 47% (+6)
Lamon (R) 41%

@ChangePolls/@future_majority (D) 6/24-27

[weatheriscool]

PollTracker
@PollTrackerUSA
·
1h
2022 Generic Congressional Ballot Poll:

Republicans 46% (+3)
Democrats 43%

@EmersonPolling
~ 1,271 RV ~ 6/28-6/29
https://emersoncollegepolling.com/national-poll-

I think the repubicans have the edge.

[caltrek]

This Is What Liz Cheney Is Up Against In Wyoming
by Tim Murphy
July 1, 2022

Introduction:

(Mother Jones) When Liz Cheney first ran for federal office in Wyoming nine years ago, she was undone, in part, by the simplest faux pas: She had improperly obtained a Wyoming fishing license without meeting the one-year residency requirements. It was a potent symbol of a larger issue—that the longtime resident of Northern Virginia was bigfooting into the state, with no respect for its traditions or its three-term incumbent, Sen. Mike Enzi.

Cheney dropped out, soothed hurt feelings, and in 2016 ultimately won a seat in the US House of Representatives. Now, as she seeks a fourth term, it’s not the Game and Fish Commission that stands to doom her prospects, it’s her service on the January 6th Committee. Cheney has been censured and disowned by her state party, and become an outcast among Capitol Hill Republicans, after voting to impeach President Donald Trump for sending a mob to attack Congress, and then taking a lead role as one of just two Republicans on the special committee investigating Trump’s election plot. In May, Trump traveled to Wyoming to campaign for her leading rival, natural resources attorney Harriet Hageman. And on Thursday, after perhaps one of the most gripping and significant hearings in congressional history—and after Cheney had appeared and received a standing ovation at the Reagan Library—Hageman, and three other Republican challengers joined the incumbent for their first debate, in Sheridan.

The verdict from the rest of the field: The hearings are a complete waste of time.

Throughout the debate, Cheney’s opponents defended Trump’s claims of a stolen election and attacked Cheney for her work on the committee and criticisms of the ex-president. In her opening remarks, Hageman charged that “we’re seeing that we have two different systems of justice in this country” because Hunter Biden walks free while “the conservatives who are Republicans are being punished for expressing their First Amendment rights.”

At one point, co-moderator Bob Beck of Wyoming Public Media asked each of Cheney’s challengers why they weren’t more concerned about what was being revealed at Cheney’s hearings, and specifically, “The fact that some leading people from the Trump administration said his goal was to overturn the election.” None of them accepted the premise that there was anything even newsworthy about the proceedings, much less concerning about the former president’s behavior..

Read more here: https://www.motherjones.com/politics/2 ... -wyoming/