Economic and jobs news thread

[caltrek]

US Welcomes OPEC+ Move to Boost Oil Supply
June 3, 2022

Introduction:

(Eurasia Review) The US welcomed the decision by OPEC+ nations to increase oil supplies, and recognized the role of Saudi Arabia “in achieving this consensus amongst the group members,” the White House’s press secretary said on Thursday.

“We recognize the role of Saudi Arabia as the chair of OPEC+ and its largest producer in achieving this consensus amongst the group members. We also recognize efforts and positive contributions of UAE, Kuwait, and Iraq,” Karine Jean-Pierre said.

The OPEC oil cartel and allied producing countries including Russia will raise production by 648,000 barrels per day in July and August.

“We welcome the important decision from OPEC+ today to increase supply in July and August based on new market conditions. This announcement brings forward the monthly production increase that was previously planned to take place in September,” Jean-Pierre added.

She said the US will continue to use all tools at its disposal to address energy price pressures.

Read more here: https://www.eurasiareview.com/03062022 ... l-supply/

Extract:

(Bloomberg) The modest supply boost -- amounting to just 0.4% of global demand over July and August -- may ease tight markets. But it leaves unanswered the question of whether the US can turn Saudi Arabia into an ally in its campaign to economically isolate Russia.

“The frost is melting in Saudi-US diplomatic relations, but it will take more progress before full normalization,” said Bill Farren-Price, a director at Enverus Intelligence Research. “Whether the US will be able to drive a wedge between Riyadh and Moscow is a bigger challenge.”

Before Thursday’s OPEC+ meeting, oil had fallen on reports that Saudi Arabia and other members were prepared to fill the gap in the market created by Western sanctions on Russian oil, or even remove the country from the OPEC+ quota system altogether. Russia’s output has already fallen by about 1 million barrels a day since the start of the war and may drop further after the European Union agreed further sanctions on its oil.

The policy shift eventually agreed upon by the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies was far less dramatic. The group approved oil-production hikes of 648,000 barrels a day for July and August, about 50% larger than the increases seen in recent months. Moscow gave the plan its full backing and talks were concluded in just 11 minutes, delegates said, asking not to be named because the information was private
...
Opening the taps even just a little wider is still a turnaround for Saudi Arabia. The kingdom doggedly stuck to the OPEC+ plan for gradual monthly supply increases even after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine upended global markets and sent energy prices soaring. Last week, the Saudi foreign minister said there was nothing more the country could do to tame oil markets, and even suggested there was no shortfall of crude.

Source: https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles ... ing-months

Conclusion:

(Politico) OPEC’s announcement had little immediate effect on oil markets. Prices for global benchmark Brent crude were around $116 a barrel, down less than a percent after the announcement.

Prices for U.S. benchmark crude WTI were at $115 a barrel Tuesday, up from $76 a the start of the year. Fuel demand from more people returning to work, school and vacation travel has outstripped the output from refineries that had slowed or stopped production completely during the pandemic. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine also added pressure to prices as traders shunned Russian crude.

Saudi Arabia may have agreed to the increased output as an overture to Biden ahead of a possible meeting, which has generated its own tensions in the United States. But it could also signal that OPEC is worried that high prices are starting to lead to long-term shift away from oil as drivers look to switch to electric vehicles or high prices cause another downturn in the global economy, analysts at ClearView Energy said in an analyst note.

“We would suggest, more fundamentally, that OPEC may be looking out for its own interests: high oil prices could bring demand destruction and push import-reliant economies into recession,” the analyst note read.

Source: https://www.politico.com/news/2022/06/0 ... p-00036694

[weatheriscool]

May jobs report: Payrolls rise by 390,000 as unemployment holds at 3.6%
Source: Yahoo! Finance

The U.S. labor market remained hot in May, even as tighter monetary conditions and persistent inflation stoke worries of an economic slowdown.

The Labor Department released its latest monthly jobs report at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday. Here were the main metrics from the print, compared to consensus estimates compiled by Bloomberg:

Non-farm payrolls: +390,000 vs. +318,000 expected

Unemployment rate: 3.6% vs. 3.5% expected

Average hourly earnings, month-over-month: 0.3% vs. +0.4% expected

Average hourly earnings, year-over-year: 5.2% vs. +5.2% expected

In the previous jobs report, U.S. payrolls rose by 428,000 in April, while the unemployment rate held at a steady 3.6%.

Prior to the May report, the U.S. economy had added at least 400,000 jobs each month over the last year, bringing employment within 1% of pre-pandemic levels.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-jobs ... 42508.html

[weatheriscool]

U.S. trade deficit falls 19% to $87.1 billion and comes off record high


By Jeffry Bartash

Imports decline for first time in nine months

The numbers: The U.S. trade deficit shrank 19% in April to $87.1 billion as imports fell for the first time in nine months, signaling that trade won’t weigh as heavily on the economy’s growth in the spring as it did early in the year.

The deficit narrowed from a record $107.7 billion in March — the first time it’s ever topped $100 billion in a single month. ... Economists polled by The Wall Street Journal had forecast a $89.4 billion shortfall.

Exports rose 3.5% to a record $252.6 billion. ... Imports slid 3.4% to $339.7 billion. They hit an all-time high in March.

{snip}

Read more: https://www.marketwatch.com/story/u-s-t ... 1654605587

[weatheriscool]

Recession will be 'hard to avoid' as stagflation risks rise: World Bank

Brian Cheung · Anchor/Reporter
Tue, June 7, 2022, 9:30 AM

The World Bank warned Tuesday that the global economy faces the risk of dreaded "stagflation," with this combination of high inflation and low growth tipping some countries into recession. ... “The war in Ukraine, lockdowns in China, supply-chain disruptions, and the risk of stagflation are hammering growth. For many countries, recession will be hard to avoid,” said World Bank President David Malpass.

In its updated Global Economic Prospects report, the World Bank slashed its forecast for global growth this year to 2.9%, down from the 4.1% forecast it published in January.

The World Bank said most of the downgrade is attributed to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which it had not accounted for in its previous forecast. The international body said it expects “essentially no rebound” next year, projecting only 3% growth for the world in 2023.

The report pointed to the persistence of high energy and food prices — combined with higher interest rates from central banks around the world — for the gloomier outlook.

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/world-ba ... 31610.html

[weatheriscool]

Jobless claims rises 27K to 229K

Jobless claims rises 27K to 229K
Jun. 09, 2022 8:30 AM ET * By: Gaurav Batavia, SA News Editor

-- Initial Jobless Claims: +27K to 229K vs. 210K expected and 202K prior (revised from 200K).
-- 4-week moving average of 215,000 rose from 207,000 in the previous week.
-- The advance seasonally adjusted insured unemployment rate was 0.9% for the week ended May 28, a decrease of 0.1 percentage point from the previous week's unrevised rate.
-- The advance number of actual initial claims under state programs, unadjusted, totaled 184,604 in the week ended June 4, an increase of 1,008 (or 0.5%) from the previous week. The seasonal factors had expected a decrease of 21,362 (or 11.6%) from the prior week. And there were 364,577 initial claims in the comparable week in 2021.
-- Continuing jobless claims of 1.306M vs. 1.305M consensus and 1.306M prior.

Read more: https://seekingalpha.com/news/3847139-jobless-claims

[caltrek]

Scorching Hot Inflation Amplifies Recession Fears
by Neil Erwin and Courtenay Brown
June 10, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) There is no silver lining: May's inflation report is a disaster for the "soft landing" camp — policymakers and politicians hoping to tame inflation without an all-out recession. Prices rose 1% alone during the month, bringing the year-over-year increase to a fresh four-decade high.

Why it matters: The Fed will likely have to take more aggressive steps to cool demand broadly in the economy to tackle worsening inflation, which amplifies the risk of a sharp economic downturn.

• What the central bank will do after a summer of half-point hikes is no longer a mystery: another half-percentage point interest rate hike in September now looks likely.
• Traders are pricing that in: The yield on the 2-year Treasury note jumped to its highest levels since 2008, a sign traders are bracing for more aggressive tightening in the near-term.

Conclusion:

The Biden administration is pointing to Russia's invasion of Ukraine, which has disrupted the global energy and food markets. The pandemic-related lockdown in China put pressure on car prices.

The bottom line: Americans are feeling the squeeze from an "everything-is-expensive" economy. They are bracing for an economic downturn — and the chances of one just got higher.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/10/hot-i ... fed-biden

caltrek's comment: I tend to agree with the Biden administration’s explanation of the problem regarding Ukraine and China. Still, I have no doubt that Republicans will insist it is all Biden’s fault and that they should be restored to power instead. Even as they offer absolutely no credible solution and block reasonable attempts at mitigating the problem.

[weatheriscool]

Inflation surges more than expected as CPI rises 8.6% in May

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Fri, June 10, 2022, 8:31 AM · 1 min read

Inflation accelerated in May as U.S. consumers grapple with a surge in prices for gas, food, and shelter, data showed Friday.

The Bureau of Labor Statistics' May Consumer Price Index (CPI) reflected a year-over-year increase of 8.6% last month, up from April's print {sic}. Consensus economists were expecting an 8.3% increase in May, according to estimates compiled by Bloomberg.

On a monthly basis, the broadest measure of inflation rose at a pace of 1.0%, compared to 0.3% in April.

Ahead of Friday's report, experts predicted a surge in gasoline prices would prove a driver of inflation for May after a recent rise back to all-time highs. In April, a moderation in the price of energy offered a temporary relief to inflation after Russia's invasion of Ukraine rocked global commodities markets in March.

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-infl ... 34308.html

I blame Biden because he is the most powerful man in the world and America damn well has the ability to rebuild our industry if we so wished. We could use our 850 billion dollar military and our generals to build plants and machines to start making our shit again and we could put the 10 million American citizens to fucking work within them! FDR did it in wwII with the car companies and he can do it here.

Instead we let China and other nations f*ck us in the ass and do this to our economy. China and India built Industry and put their own people above the rest of the world. time for us to do so too. Biden if he was any kind of leader would demand it.

[weatheriscool]

Or he and congress could nationalize the corporations and force them to stay in America. They could put all unemployeed Americans to work and we could make shit! What we could to lower the prices to the consumer is to cap ceo and board wages to 500k per year. The rest would go towards subsidies to pay for any extra cost on the consumer.

So corporations stay in America
Ceo and board are paid reasonable wages instead of insane wages
Any extra would go to cool the prices of production on consumer

[caltrek]

Inflation surges more than expected as CPI rises 8.6% in May

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Fri, June 10, 2022, 8:31 AM · 1 min read

...

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-infl ... 34308.html

I blame Biden because he is the most powerful man in the world and America damn well has the ability to rebuild our industry if we so wished. We could use our 850 billion dollar military and our generals to build plants and machines to start making our shit again and we could put the 10 million American citizens to fucking work within them! FDR did it in wwII with the car companies and he can do it here.

If "we so wished" ...and who is blocking that?

Mostly Republicans and a few maverick Democrats like Manchin. So, apparently, "we" don't wish that at all. Yet, who is most critical of Biden...why those Republicans who do not "wish" to rebuild our industry...or at least don't wish to see the U.S. government a playing any roll in that effort. So, it is a double bind. Don't do anything about the problem, and you are blamed for causing it. Take action to have the government address the problem, and you are a radical socialist.

Yes, FDR did it...with the support of Congress.

Instead we let China and other nations f*ck us in the ass and do this to our economy. China and India built Industry and put their own people above the rest of the world. time for us to do so too. Biden if he was any kind of leader would demand it.

No real argument against this point. This does go back to Democrat Bill Clinton and his neo-liberal trade deals. A bad idea, and some, such as Ross Perot, predicted that it would not end well. Perot was a bit of a flake, but on that issue he go it right. His focus was on Mexico and NAFTA, but the trade deal with China followed closely behind NAFTA.

Also, if China really and truly did "put their own people above the rest of the world" it wouldn't be so bad. Instead, independent unions are prohibited and China's workers are often subject to poor working conditions and outlandishly low pay packages. Below, not "above the rest of the world."

[caltrek]

This (see below) is kind of going over old ground, with more faith in the Fed being able to address the problem than I think is warranted

Inflation Hits Fresh 40-year High, Pushing Fed to Get More Aggressive with Interest Rates
by Veronika Dolar
June 10, 2022


Introduction:

(The Conversation) Inflation surged at the fastest pace in over 40 years in May 2022, pushing the Federal Reserve toward a more aggressive pace of interest rate increases to slow it down. While there’s concern it could cause unemployment to spike, a little-known economics tool suggests the Fed can do so without causing too much economic pain.

The Fed has already raised interest rates twice in recent months – including a half-point hike in early May – in an effort to tame inflation. Yet the consumer price index rose to an annualized rate of 8.6% from 8.3% in April, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on June 10. That’s above economic forecasts of 8.2% and the highest reading since December 1981, which is the tail end of the last time the U.S. economy wrestled with ferocious inflation.

In other words, the actions by the central bank so far don’t appear to have had much of an effect.

But lifting rates further could come at a cost. Economists fear that raising rates too fast and too steeply would likely put the brakes on economic growth, resulting in an economic recession and soaring unemployment. Yet as an economist who studies inflation, I believe there are several reasons the Fed can more fiercely fight inflation without worrying so much about unemployment.

Slow at the switch

Economists and investors have been urging the Fed to get more aggressive for many weeks.

Read more here: https://theconversation.com/inflation- ... so-184896

[weatheriscool]

Fed survey shows inflation expectations match highest on record

Emily McCormick · Reporter
Mon, June 13, 2022, 10:00 AM

U.S. households' expectations for inflation over the coming year rose to match the highest recorded level on record in May, according to new data from the New York Fed.

The NY Federal Reserve's Survey of Consumer Expectations released Monday showed consumers in May anticipate inflation will rise at a 6.6% rate over the next year, up from an April reading of 6.3%. May's reading tied with March's print for the highest on record, in data spanning back to June 2013. (1)

Longer-term inflation expectations were slightly more subdued last month, with consumers looking for inflation to average 3.9% over the next three years. This expectation, however, is still well above the Fed's 2% target. These longer-term expectations were unchanged from April.

This data further complicates the job of the Federal Reserve's task to bring down rising prices and prevent expectations from becoming embedded among consumers.

{snip}

(1) https://www.newyorkfed.org/microeconomi ... /inflexp-2

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/househol ... 38577.html

[caltrek]

Can Blaming Corporate Greed Save Democrats on Inflation?
by Christian Paz
June 11, 2022

Introduction:

(Vox) Americans don’t need the Labor Department to tell them that prices remain high. Still, Friday’s consumer price index report for May revealed that inflation reached a 40-year high, an 8.6 percent increase last month compared to a year ago. Energy and food supply shocks from the Russia-Ukraine war, pandemic-related employment and production shortages, and strong consumer demand, especially in airline travel, all contributed to higher prices.

The Biden White House knows that the economy will be the primary matter on the ballot in midterm elections this year; that’s partly why President Joe Biden has dedicated the month of June to voicing the ways the White House is trying to soften the blow of rising prices, while giving the Federal Reserve cover to raise interest rates.

But Democrats also know that they have a major messaging problem. CNN and NBC News both reported in the last month that Biden is frustrated he can’t break through the bad economic vibes to convince the American people that, objectively, the economy is doing pretty well. Faced with competing priorities by different audiences in his party, in Congress, and among the public, the White House is struggling to find an enemy to pin that fault on without admitting that, just maybe, the president’s crowning economic accomplishment was partially responsible for worsening inflation.

Still, Democrats in Congress and the White House may not be going after two perfect villains hard enough: large corporations and billionaires, which progressive think tanks, economists, and activist groups say bear some of the responsibility for rising costs of living.

Starting with local demonstrations and continuing to organize throughout this year, an array of progressive groups are trying to shift the national conversation on inflation toward corporate giants — and some think that national Democrats should do more to cast “corporate greed” and price gouging by big businesses and Republican politicians as bigger culprits for still sky-high prices. They also argue that beyond turning the tide on Biden’s approval rating, focusing on a populist economic message can win back working-class voters in competitive House districts.

Read more here: https://www.vox.com/23163167/democrats ... e-gouging

[weatheriscool]

Wholesale inflation climbs 10.8% in May, hovering near 40-year high
Economists expected wholesale inflation to jump 10.9% in May

https://www.foxbusiness.com/economy/who ... 175be38b67
By Megan Henney FOXBusiness

Wholesale prices accelerated again in May as inflation tightened its stranglehold on the U.S. economy, adding to the financial pressure on millions of Americans.

The Labor Department said Tuesday that its producer price index, which measures inflation at the wholesale level before it reaches consumers, climbed 10.8% in May from the previous year. On a monthly basis, prices grew by 0.8%. Although that was slightly lower than the 10.9% forecast from Refinitiv economists, the reading – near a record-high of 11.5% notched in March – suggests that inflationary pressures in the economy remain strong.

[wjfox]

Tech layoffs accelerate in June, with more than 7,000 losing their jobs so far

06-14-22
2:25 PM

Last month’s stock market volatility is looking like the calm before the storm. The NASDAQ has fallen more than 7% in the past month—and year to date, it’s down 32%.

The decline in the tech-heavy stock index is a barometer of the tech sector, meaning the unbridled growth of the past few years is contracting sharply as well. That’s been accompanied by recent warnings from the venture capital community that fundraising would be much more challenging for founders for the foreseeable future. Already, the layoffs have begun accumulating. May saw more than 16,000 tech layoffs. And since the beginning of June, more than 7,000 more positions have been eliminated.

Coinbase is the most recent. On Tuesday, the company announced plans to lay off 18% of its full-time workforce. With approximately 5,000 workers, that works out to about 1,100 people.

A looming possible recession and overly optimistic growth are being blamed for the decision. Earlier, the company had announced plans to pause hiring, rescinding an undetermined number of accepted job offers, which left many people stranded after leaving their previous jobs.

“We appear to be entering a recession after a 10+ year economic boom,” CEO Brian Armstrong wrote in an email to employees. “A recession could lead to another crypto winter, and could last for an extended period. While it’s hard to predict the economy or the markets, we always plan for the worst so we can operate the business through any environment.”

https://www.fastcompany.com/90760999/te ... obs-so-far

[funkervogt]

Wells Fargo chief economist Jay Bryson says the U.S. will have a recession in 2023.

Wells Fargo said the sharp increases in interest rates, which will raise borrowing costs across the economy, are likely to trigger a "mild recession" in mid-2023.

The bank's chief economist Jay Bryson previously thought the Fed could tame inflation without slowing growth dramatically.

"In our view, the recession will be more or less equivalent in magnitude and duration to the downturn of 1990-1991. That recession lasted for two quarters with a peak-to-trough decline in real GDP of 1.4," Bryson said in a note to clients Wednesday.

https://www.yahoo.com/finance/news/well ... 03710.html

[weatheriscool]

Mortgage rates surge to the highest point since 2008

Ronda Lee
Thu, June 16, 2022, 10:00 AM

Mortgage rates this week jumped by the largest amount in 35 years, making home-buying significantly more unaffordable in just seven days.

The rate on the 30-year fixed rate mortgage surged to 5.78% from 5.23% last week, according to Freddie Mac, marking the biggest one-week increase since 1987 and hitting the highest level since November 2008. The average rate is more than two and a half points higher since just the start of the year.

Rapidly increasing mortgage rates have become the biggest hurdle homebuyers face in addition low inventory levels and double-digit price gains, pricing many out of the market altogether.

“Climbing mortgage rates continue to put pressure on the housing market, pushing the cost of homeownership ever higher,” Hannah Jones, economic data analyst at Realtor.com, said in a statement. “There has been little relief for American consumers at the grocery store, the pump, and in both the for-sale and rental markets."

{snip}

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/mortgage ... 25821.html

[Time_Traveller]

[caltrek]

Report Finds California Boasts Biggest Job Gains in the Nation
by Natalie Hanson
June 17, 2022

Introduction:

SACRAMENTO, Calif. (Courthouse News) — California continues to push past the rest of the country in recovering job growth from the pandemic’s impacts, starting the summer with more new jobs created in the past year than in any other state.

National recovery is troubled: inflation hit a 40-year high as stock prices continued to fall and the Federal Reserve imposed the biggest interest rate hike in almost three decades.

According to the jobs report released Friday by California’s Employment Development Department, the state has reduced unemployment rates to the same levels as before the coronavirus pandemic began, at 4.3%. Nearly 17.5 million Californians were employed last month, compared to 835,100 unemployed, a 663,500 decrease from May 2021.

The report found 42,900 new jobs were created in May, recovering 93% out of 2.75 million farm jobs lost during March and April of 2020 due to the pandemic. The number of jobs in the agriculture industry increased from April by 6,300 to total 420,200 jobs in May, topping last May’s employment figure by 17,300.

“California’s economic recovery continues to make incremental gains, with another month of five-figure job growth and the unemployment rate returning to pre-pandemic levels,” Governor Gavin Newsom’s office reported in a statement.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/report- ... e-nation/

[weatheriscool]

US: Industrial Production rises by 0.2% in May vs. 0.4% expected
Source: FX Street

NEWS | 6/17/2022 1:19:37 PM GMT | By Eren Sengezer

-- Industrial Production in US grew at a softer pace than expected in May.
-- US Dollar Index clings to strong daily gains above 104.50.

Industrial Production in the US expanded by 0.2% on a monthly basis in May, the data published by the US Federal Reserve revealed on Friday. This print followed April's expansion of 1.4% and came in weaker than the market expectation of 0.4%.

"In May, manufacturing output declined 0.1% after three months when growth averaged nearly 1%," The Fed's publication further read. "Capacity utilization edged up to 79.0%, 0.5 percentage point below its long-run (1972–2021) average."

{snip}

Read more: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/us-indust ... 2206171319

[weatheriscool]

US retail sales unexpectedly drop in May as inflation weighs on spending

Alexandra Semenova · Reporter
Wed, June 15, 2022, 8:37 AM

U.S. retail sales registered a bigger-than-expected drop in May as record gasoline and food prices prompt households to cut back spending.

The Commerce Department said Wednesday that retail sales fell 0.3% last month, down sharply from April's 0.9% increase. Economists surveyed by Bloomberg expected May data to show a rise of 0.1%. (1)

Read more: https://finance.yahoo.com/news/may-reta ... 34719.html