Extreme weather news and discussion

[weatheriscool]

La Nina climate cycle could last into 2023: UN
https://phys.org/news/2022-06-la-nina-climate.html

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.

The weather phenomenon La Nina, which has affected global temperatures and worsened drought and flooding, will likely continue for months, and possibly even into 2023, the UN warned Friday.

La Nina refers to the large-scale cooling of surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, occurring every two to seven years.

The UN's World Meteorological Organization (WMO) said there was a 70 percent chance that the protracted La Nina event—which has held the globe in its clutches almost uninterrupted since September 2020—will continue until at least August.

"Some long-lead predictions even suggest that it might persist into 2023," it said in a statement.

If it does, this would be only the third so-called triple-dip La Nina—meaning the phenomenon is present during three consecutive northern hemisphere winters—on record since 1950, WMO said.

The effect has widespread impacts on weather around the world—typically the opposite impacts to the El Nino phenomenon, which has a warming influence on global temperatures.

[wjfox]

Over a third of US population urged to stay indoors amid record-breaking heat

Wed 15 Jun 2022 17.34 BST

More than 100 million Americans have been advised to stay indoors amid record-breaking heat, with experts warning that such temperatures could become the norm amid the climate crisis.

By Wednesday as many as 107.5 million people, more than a third of the US population, had been warned to stay inside, as a potentially lethal combination of extreme heat and humidity settled over much of the country.

The heatwave stretched from parts of the Gulf coast in the south to the Great Lakes in the midwest, the National Weather Service (NWS) Prediction Center said.

More than 125 million people were also under heat alerts, including heat advisories and excessive heat warnings, CNN reported.

“This is a day where not only folks who are susceptible to heat-related illnesses, but really just about anybody that’s going to be outside for an extended period of time is at risk for heat-related illnesses,” Matt Beitscher, a NWS meteorologist based in St Louis, told CNN.

https://www.theguardian.com/us-news/202 ... mperatures

[caltrek]

Europe Wilts Under Early Heat Wave from Mediterranean to North Sea
June 17, 2022

Introduction:

BERLIN (AP via Courthouse News) — A blanket of hot air stretching from the Mediterranean to the North Sea is bringing much of Western Europe its first heat wave of the summer, with temperatures Friday exceeding 30 degrees Celsius (86 degrees Fahrenheit) from London to Paris.

Meteorologists say the unusually early heat wave is a sign of what’s to come as global warming continues, moving up in the calendar the temperatures that Europe would previously have seen only in July and August.

“In some parts of Spain and France, temperatures are more than 10 degrees higher — that’s huge — than the average for this time of year,” Clare Nullis, a spokesperson for the World Meteorological Organization in Geneva, said.

In France, some 18 million people woke to heat wave alerts affecting about a third of the country Friday. Forest fire warnings were issued from the Pyrenees in the south to the Paris region.

Tourists dunked their feet in fountains near the Eiffel Tower or sought relief in the Mediterranean.

Read more here: https://www.courthousenews.com/europe- ... orth-sea/

[caltrek]

Millions Left Homeless by Floods in India and Bangladesh
June 17, 2022

Introduction:

(The National) Dozens of people have died in floods across north-eastern India and Bangladesh that have submerged millions of homes.

In India’s Assam, at least nine people died in the floods and the homes of about two million others were submerged, the state disaster management agency said.

Lightning strikes had killed at least 21 people in Bangladesh since Friday afternoon, police officials said.

Among them were three children aged between 12 and 14, who were struck by lightning in the rural town of Nandail, local police chief Mizanur Rahman told AFP.

He said four other people were killed when landslides hit their hillside homes in the port city of Chittagong.

Read more here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/ ... ngladesh/

[wjfox]

Blimey...

Glad it missed the UK.

[weatheriscool]

In world's first, Spain's Seville to name and classify heatwaves
Source: Reuters

June 22, 2022
2:42 PM EDT

MADRID, June 22 (Reuters) - Seville has introduced a pioneering system to name and classify frequent heatwaves that affect the city in Spain's arid south, which will tie meteorological forecasts to health impacts, Seville Mayor Antonio Munoz said.

The pilot project comprises three categories and will alert the population up to five days in advance of a heat event, he said in a statement late on Tuesday.

"We are the first city in the world to take a step that will help us plan and take measures when this type of weather event happens," the mayor said.

The heatwaves will be categorized on a three-level scale, and named in reverse alphabetical order. The first five will be called Zoe, Yago, Xenia, Wenceslao and Vega.

Read more: https://www.reuters.com/business/enviro ... 022-06-22/

[caltrek]

The Era of Real-time Climate Change Attribution is Here
by Andrew Freedman
June 24, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) Climate scientists are now able to tell whether climate change fuels temperature extremes in real-time, and even ahead of time, using forecast models, historical data and peer-reviewed scientific research.

Why it matters: Presented in a compelling visual format accessible to the lay public and TV meteorologists alike, a new product known as the "Climate Shift Index," or CSI, was unveiled this week by Climate Central, a nonprofit research and journalism organization. The product signals a shift in thinking about the ties between daily weather and long-term climate change.

Driving the news: Climate scientists have made great strides during the past decade in teasing out the role human-caused global warming plays in worsening or setting off extreme weather events, such as heat waves and extreme rainfall.

• These studies, known as extreme event attribution, have taken place after a disaster, and involve sifting through complex historical data and computer model simulations.
• Climate Central's real-time effort is currently limited to just one important parameter: temperature, though the intention is to expand it as science permits.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/06/24/extre ... real-time

caltrek’s comment: Sad thing is that the denialists will find some excuse for ignoring such data. Something like “it is not 100% reliable (in our opinion) therefore it should be totally ignored” even as their highly unreliable version of events continue to be featured in right-wing media. Main-stream media will either join in ignoring such tools or insist on a “on the one hand and on the other hand” approach. Such an approach will likely do nothing but "balance" scientific data and analysis with emotional and poorly thought-out responses.

[caltrek]

In the Near Future, Unprecedented Drought Conditions are Projected to be More Frequent and Consecutive in Certain Regions
June 28, 2022

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) For a successful climate change strategy, it is crucial to understand how the impacts of global warming may evolve over time. A new study led by the National Institute for Environmental Studies (NIES) presents the future periods for which aberrant drought conditions will become more frequent, thereby creating a new normal.

Global warming is expected to increase the intensity and frequency of future drought in several global regions, adversely affecting the water resource, agriculture, and energy sectors. Given that the current water management practices and existing infrastructures in these sectors are based on historical statistics or experiences, under a changing climate, these practices and infrastructures may eventually become insufficient. Therefore, it is critical to better understand when severe drought conditions expressed as “unprecedented” will become frequent.

“Regarding precipitation and temperature, preceding studies report the timing at which the impact of climate change emerges. However, no study had successfully estimated the timing in terms of drought focusing on river discharge at a global scale,” said Tokuta Yokohata, a coauthor and a Chief Senior Researcher of the Earth System Risk Analysis Section at the Earth System Division, NIES. “A temporal evaluation about future drought conditions in comparison to our historical experiences is essential to take appropriate climate change strategies, especially for climate adaptations, in the long term and in time.”

The paper published in Nature Communications estimates the periods when drought conditions will shift to an unprecedented state in a warmer world. The research group evaluated changes in drought day frequency for 59 global subcontinental regions until the end of the 21st century. They estimated the time of first emergence (TFE) of consecutive unprecedented drought, which is the first onset of exceedance beyond the maximum bound of the historical climate variability during the reference period (1865-2005) that occurs consecutively for a certain number of years. For instance, TFE5 indicates that the regional drought frequency remains larger than the maximum value during the reference 141-year period for more than five years. The scientists analyzed their river discharge simulation dataset, which was derived from combinations of five global hydrological models and four climate model projections. The study considered low and high greenhouse gas concentration scenarios to evaluate the consequences of society’s decisions on the climate mitigation pathway.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/956964

[caltrek]

How Climate Change is Affecting Extreme Weather Events Around the World - New Study
June 28 , 2022

Introduction:

(EurekAlert) Attribution science has led to major advances in linking the impacts of extreme weather and human-induced climate change, but large gaps in the published research still conceal the full extent of climate change damage, warns a new study released today in the first issue of Environmental Research: Climate, a new academic journal published by IOP Publishing.

Researchers from the University of Oxford, Imperial College London and the Victoria University of Wellington reviewed the impacts of five different types of extreme weather events and to what degree these damaging events could be attributed to human induced climate change.

To do this, they combined information from the latest Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change reports and results from a fast increasing body of attribution studies - where weather observations and climate models are used to determine the role that climate change played in specific weather events.

They found that for some extreme weather events, such as heatwaves, the link with climate change is clear and unequivocal across the world, and that the extent of the impacts are likely being underestimated by insurers, economists and governments. For others, such as tropical cyclones, the paper shows that important differences exist between regions and the role that climate change plays in each event is more variable than for heatwaves.

“The rise of more extreme and intense weather events such as heatwaves, droughts and heavy rainfall have dramatically increased in recent years, affecting people all over the globe. Understanding the role that climate change plays in these events can help us better prepare for them. It also allows us to determine the real cost that carbon emissions have in our lives,” says Ben Clarke from the University of Oxford, lead author of the study.

Read more here: https://www.eurekalert.org/news-releases/956600

[Time_Traveller]

Japan swelters in hottest temperatures for 150 years as early heatwave hits Northern Hemisphere

Wednesday 29 June 2022

Millions of people are sweltering under Japan's worst heatwave for almost 150 years, in the latest early-season hot weather streak to hit the Northern Hemisphere this month.

Record heat has struck every continent north of the equator in June, raising fears about what July and August - typically the hottest months of the year - have in store for Europe, North America and Asia.

The blistering temperatures are yet another reminder of the human consequences of human-induced climate change, which scientists agree is already increasing the frequency and severity of heatwaves.

They are also starting earlier in the year.

In Japan, fears of power shortages in order to keep air conditioners running are growing, and Prime Minister Fumio Kishida called for a ramp-up of nuclear power.

Most of the country's nuclear plants were switched off after the March 2011 tsunami that set off the Fukushima nuclear accident.

https://news.sky.com/story/japan-swelte ... e-12642341

[Time_Traveller]

[caltrek]

1.8 Billion People Face Once in a Century Flooding
by Tara Yarlagadda
June 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Inverse) SOBERING IMAGES FROM NORTHEASTERN INDIA and Bangladesh this past month show the toll that historic flooding has caused the region. The extreme weather has killed more than 100 people and left 9.5 million more without food or drinking water.

But these 9.5 million individuals are only a fraction of the global population who are likely to face unprecedented flooding, according to research published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. The research reveals a disturbing figure: 1.81 billion people globally are “directly exposed” to one-in-a-hundred-year floods — a risk that will only worsen as global warming increases the likelihood of extreme flooding.

Thomas McDermott, a lecturer in the economics of climate change at the National University of Ireland Galway, tells Inverse the findings are “quite surprising — in fact shocking.” McDermott is not affiliated with the study but authored a Nature Communications article commenting on the research.
WHAT’S NEW — According to the study, 1.8 billion people, or 23 percent of the world’s population, live in areas exposed to a half-foot of water level rise during once-in-a-century flooding. It’s a figure far higher than previous research suggested.

“In other words, considering a global population of 7.9 billion, almost one in four of the world’s people are exposed to significant flood risk,” writes the study’s authors.

Read more here: https://www.inverse.com/science/18-bil ... worldwide

[caltrek]

Thousands Told to Evacuate Sydney During "Life-threatening" Floods
by Herb Scribner
July 4, 2022

Introduction:

(Axios) More than 30,000 residents in Sydney were told to evacuate their homes Monday due to "life-threatening" floods.

Why it matters: Australia is facing its fourth round of flooding in less than a year and a half, per the Associated Press. The flooding has been considered one of the worst rounds of extreme weather for the country's most populous city in the last 18 months.

Driving the news: A strong storm on the Southeast coast of Australia has brought moisture inland, combining with rough seas and high winds, according to the Bureau of Meteorology Australia.

• More than 1.6 feet of rain has poured over eastern New South Wales during the last 48 hours, CNN reports.
• Officials reported at least 3 feet of rain after days of torrential rainfall, leading to overflowed dams and broken waterways, per AP.
• Close to 32,000 people were given evacuation orders and warnings due to the widespread floods, New South Wales state Premier Dominic Perrottet told AP.

Read more here: https://www.axios.com/2022/07/04/sydney ... ods-damage

[weatheriscool]

Spain, Portugal dryness 'unprecedented' in 1,200 years
https://phys.org/news/2022-07-spain-por ... years.html
by Kelly MACNAMARA

Climate change is already forcing wine producers to innovate, including moving vineyards to higher altitudes.

Parts of Portugal and Spain are the driest they have been in a thousand years due to an atmospheric high-pressure system driven by climate change, according to research published Monday, warning of severe implications for wine and olive production.

The Azores High, an area of high pressure that rotates clockwise over parts of the North Atlantic, has a major effect on weather and long-term climate trends in western Europe.

But in a new modeling study published in the journal Nature Geoscience, researchers in the United States found this high-pressure system "has changed dramatically in the past century and that these changes in North Atlantic climate are unprecedented within the past millennium".

Using climate model simulations over the last 1,200 years, the study found that this high-pressure system started to grow to cover a greater area around 200 years ago, as human greenhouse gas pollution began to increase.

It expanded even more dramatically in the 20th century in step with global warming.

The authors then looked at evidence of rainfall levels preserved over hundreds of years in Portuguese stalagmites, and found that as the Azores High has expanded, the winters in the western Mediterranean have become drier.

[weatheriscool]

1.8 Billion People Face Once in a Century Flooding
by Tara Yarlagadda
June 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Inverse) SOBERING IMAGES FROM NORTHEASTERN INDIA and Bangladesh this past month show the toll that historic flooding has caused the region. The extreme weather has killed more than 100 people and left 9.5 million more without food or drinking water.

But these 9.5 million individuals are only a fraction of the global population who are likely to face unprecedented flooding, according to research published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. The research reveals a disturbing figure: 1.81 billion people globally are “directly exposed” to one-in-a-hundred-year floods — a risk that will only worsen as global warming increases the likelihood of extreme flooding.

Thomas McDermott, a lecturer in the economics of climate change at the National University of Ireland Galway, tells Inverse the findings are “quite surprising — in fact shocking.” McDermott is not affiliated with the study but authored a Nature Communications article commenting on the research.
WHAT’S NEW — According to the study, 1.8 billion people, or 23 percent of the world’s population, live in areas exposed to a half-foot of water level rise during once-in-a-century flooding. It’s a figure far higher than previous research suggested.

“In other words, considering a global population of 7.9 billion, almost one in four of the world’s people are exposed to significant flood risk,” writes the study’s authors.

Read more here: https://www.inverse.com/science/18-bil ... worldwide

What god is capable of is truly mindblowing. Praying for these people!

[weatheriscool]

Official: 17 unaccounted for in Italian glacier avalanche
Source: AP

By FRANCES D'EMILIO

ROME (AP) — Some 17 people remain unaccounted for a day after a huge chunk of an Alpine glacier broke off and slammed into hikers in northern Italy, officials said Monday.

At least six people died and 9 were injured by the avalanche of ice, snow and large rocks thundering down the slope of the mountain topped by the Marmolada glacier Sunday afternoon.

Trento Prosecutor Sandro Raimondi said that 17 hikers were believed to be missing, the Italian news agency LaPresse reported.

Veneto regional Gov. Luca Zaia said some of those hiking in the area on Sunday were roped together as they climbed.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/science-moun ... a6b70211d1

[caltrek]

Italy Declares State of Emergency for Drought-stricken North
by Neil Murphy
July 4, 2022

Introduction:

(The National) Italy on Monday declared a state of emergency for areas surrounding the river Po, which accounts for about a third of the country's agricultural production and is suffering its worst drought in 70 years.

The government decree will allow authorities to cut through red tape and take action immediately if they think it necessary, such as to impose water rationing for homes and businesses.

The Po is Italy's longest river. It runs for more than 650 kilometres through the wealthy north of Italy.

But many stretches of the waterway have run dry and farmers say the flow is so weak that seawater is seeping inland, destroying crops.

The government said that the emergency measures would cover lands that bordered the Po and the water basins of the eastern Alps.

Read more here: https://www.thenationalnews.com/world/ ... en-north/

[Vakanai]

1.8 Billion People Face Once in a Century Flooding
by Tara Yarlagadda
June 28, 2022

Introduction:

(Inverse) SOBERING IMAGES FROM NORTHEASTERN INDIA and Bangladesh this past month show the toll that historic flooding has caused the region. The extreme weather has killed more than 100 people and left 9.5 million more without food or drinking water.

But these 9.5 million individuals are only a fraction of the global population who are likely to face unprecedented flooding, according to research published Tuesday in the journal Nature Communications. The research reveals a disturbing figure: 1.81 billion people globally are “directly exposed” to one-in-a-hundred-year floods — a risk that will only worsen as global warming increases the likelihood of extreme flooding.

Thomas McDermott, a lecturer in the economics of climate change at the National University of Ireland Galway, tells Inverse the findings are “quite surprising — in fact shocking.” McDermott is not affiliated with the study but authored a Nature Communications article commenting on the research.
WHAT’S NEW — According to the study, 1.8 billion people, or 23 percent of the world’s population, live in areas exposed to a half-foot of water level rise during once-in-a-century flooding. It’s a figure far higher than previous research suggested.

“In other words, considering a global population of 7.9 billion, almost one in four of the world’s people are exposed to significant flood risk,” writes the study’s authors.

Read more here: https://www.inverse.com/science/18-bil ... worldwide

What god is capable of is truly mindblowing. Praying for these people!

While I'm a Christian myself (of the lax, lacking, never praying or going to church mold), this isn't anything that God has wrought - this is the doings of Man. We are to blame for the climate we have now, not Him. We kept pumping carbon into the air, either believing the lies of the oil companies and car makers and their pocketed conservatives, that piddily little Humanity couldn't affect His climate, that we're too small and the earth too big - and think of all those poor coal miners in coal country! Why, they're too illiterate to learn to install something as complex as solar panels and wind turbines, won't someone please think of the coal miners? And over time they built it up into a political issue, and even a religious issue, just for their own profit! Generations of conservatives have turned their backs on science because it's been framed by these charlatans as some affront to God, decency, and all the hard working "little people" to think we could impact the climate, or do anything about it.

Or worse - we didn't believe the lies they told, yet still ignored the cries of the science because it was just more "convenient" to do so.

This is the one time Christians and Atheists should be in sound agreement - God had nothing to do with this fresh hell on earth. That Man still wants to deny his part in the new world we've burned out for ourselves is astounding. Sure, there we're always going to be floods and droughts and wildfires and hurricanes - but the ramping up in frequency and intensity of all these disasters lies at our own coal and oil stained hands. Once I had assumed the only natural disasters not worsened by our actions was the geologic processes of the earth itself, earthquakes and volcanoes - but thanks to fracking even that sole comfort has been flung in high doubt. If we Christians are right, then God's still in His Heaven, probably wondering why we took it upon ourselves to jumpstart Armageddon on our own without Him.

[weatheriscool]

Thousands rescued at flood-hit Hindu pilgrimage in Kashmir
Source: AP

By AIJAZ HUSSAIN

SRINAGAR, India (AP) — Emergency workers rescued thousands of pilgrims after flash floods triggered by sudden rains swept through their makeshift camps during an annual Hindu pilgrimage to an icy Himalayan cave in Indian-controlled Kashmir, officials said Saturday. At least 16 people have died and dozens were injured.

Authorities suspended the pilgrimage for two days as rains continued to lash the region. Teams of rescuers from India’s military, paramilitary and police as well as disaster management officials combed through the slippery mountain tracks and used thermal imaging devices, sniffer dogs and through-the-wall radars to locate dozens of missing.

They dug through mud, sand and rocks that swamped the campsites on Friday evening after hurtling down with a gush of water near the cave shrine revered by Hindus. Civilian and military helicopters evacuated the injured to hospitals.

Thousands of people were in the mountains when the rains struck.

Read more: https://apnews.com/article/floods-covid ... 4ff10835be

[wjfox]